指数 收盘 涨跌（％） 2025 年 11 月 26 日 2026 年教育行业投资策略：景气与困境反转交织，投资机会纷 风格指数 (％) 昨日 近 1 个月 近 6 个月 大盘指数 0.89 -3.87 15.77 中盘指数 1.36 -4.38 23.98 小盘指数 1.37 -1.74 22.43 涨幅居前 行业(％) 昨日 近 1 个月 近 6 个月 游戏Ⅱ 5.36 -2.53 50.01 元件Ⅱ 5.35 -7.5 92.52 通信设备 4.41 -7.91 105.5 能源金属 3.87 3.48 77.78 冶钢原料 3.81 19.55 50.44 跌幅居前 行业(％) 昨日 近 1 个月 近 6 个月 渔业 -7.68 23.8 35.39 航海装备Ⅱ -2.07 1.55 14.41 饲料Ⅱ -1.69 -2.05 -3.03 航空机场 -1.52 -0.74 7.5 地面兵装Ⅱ -1.35 3.04 48.96 证券分析师 金黎丹 A0230525060004 jinld@swsresearch.com ◼ 基本面触底叠加政策推进，高教困境反转可期。以办学质量提升为前提， 以营利性牌照为 ...

行 业 及 产 业 2025 年 11 月 25 日 可复用技术引领变革，商业火箭开 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 深 度 证 券 研 究 报 告 hanqiang@swsresearch.com 武雨桐 A0230520090001 wuyt@swsresearch.com 穆少阳 A0230524070009 musy@swsresearch.com 研究支持 穆少阳 A0230524070009 musy@swsresearch.com 田昕 A0230124060003 tianxin@swsresearch.com 联系人 穆少阳 (8621)23297818× musy@swsresearch.com 本期投资提示： 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 证券分析师 韩强 A0230518060003 ⚫ 商业火箭迎来黄金时代，可复用技术引领变革。商业航天在全球航天产业中占据主导地 位，商业运载火箭关键环节，迎来黄金时代。运载火箭分类方式多样，可按照动力系统 能源种类、运力大小、发射方式等划分多种类型；运载火箭主要由结构系统、推进系统 及控制系统三大系统组成。可重复使用火箭是未来商业运载火 ...

Core Insights - The successful high-precision variable thrust test of the CQ-50 engine marks a significant advancement in China's private aerospace sector, particularly in the core technology of vertical recovery for liquid rockets [2][5] - The engine's ability to operate at a thrust limit of 32% of its rated power and achieve a rapid response time of under 0.5 seconds demonstrates its stability and potential for reusable rocket applications [2][5] Company Overview - Beijing Xinghe Power Aerospace Technology Co., Ltd. was established in February 2018 with a registered capital of approximately 432.87 million RMB, focusing on low-cost commercial launch vehicle development and launch services [3] - Within seven years, the company has become a leading player in China's private rocket sector, completing 21 commercial launches and placing 85 satellites into orbit, capturing a market share of 15% [3] Technological Advancements - The CQ-50 engine features a thrust-to-weight ratio greater than 120, a swing capability of ±6°, and a design life of 50 reuses, with a combustion efficiency exceeding 96% [2][5] - The use of metal 3D printing technology for key components has significantly improved production efficiency and reduced costs to one-third of traditional methods [5] Industry Context - Since 2016, China's aerospace sector has entered a phase of rapid innovation, with significant advancements in space infrastructure and satellite systems [7] - In 2023, China's commercial space activities saw a 29% year-on-year increase in the number of commercial satellites launched, with 141 satellites launched and 23 commercial launches conducted [11] Market Dynamics - The commercial launch sector is experiencing accelerated growth, with government support and local policies fostering innovation and collaboration across related fields [14] - Experts predict that with ongoing technological breakthroughs and capital support, China's commercial aerospace industry is poised to mature by the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan, paving the way for a new phase in space economy development [14]

Core Viewpoint - Blue Origin's "New Glenn" heavy rocket successfully completed its second orbital flight mission, marking a significant step in its development and a competitive challenge to SpaceX in the commercial space sector [1][3]. Group 1: Launch Details - The "New Glenn" rocket was launched on November 13, 2023, after multiple delays due to adverse weather conditions, successfully entering space and landing its booster on an unmanned platform in the Atlantic [1][2]. - This mission's primary objective was to deliver NASA's ESCAPADE dual Mars orbiter, representing NASA's first Mars exploration mission in five years [3]. Group 2: Development History - Blue Origin was founded by Jeff Bezos in 2000, while SpaceX was established by Elon Musk in 2002, leading to a competitive landscape where Blue Origin has been perceived as a follower [3][4]. - The development of the "New Glenn" rocket has been a lengthy process, with its core technology, the BE-4 engine, being in development since 2011, and the rocket's design evolving significantly over the years [5][6]. Group 3: Funding and Strategy - Blue Origin's funding model relies on Bezos's continuous investment from Amazon stock sales, allowing the company to focus on long-term goals without external financing pressures [6][8]. - The company has made strategic decisions, such as securing contracts for NASA's Artemis lunar program and Amazon's Kuiper satellite constellation, which provide stable revenue and technical validation opportunities [8]. Group 4: Competitive Landscape - The competition between Blue Origin and SpaceX represents two distinct philosophies in space exploration, with Blue Origin adopting a more cautious, incremental approach compared to SpaceX's aggressive innovation strategy [4][11]. - The "New Glenn" rocket has a low Earth orbit capacity of 45 tons, while SpaceX's Starship can carry over 100 tons, highlighting the differences in their design philosophies and operational capabilities [11][12]. Group 5: Future Missions - Upcoming missions for the "New Glenn" rocket include the "Blue Moon Pathfinder 1" in January 2026, which will test a lunar lander prototype, and the deployment of Amazon's first 49 satellites for the Kuiper project [16][17]. - The rocket is expected to conduct up to eight launches per year, emphasizing a business model focused on timely launches, even if payloads are not ready [17].

内容概况：近年来，中国太空旅游行业发展迅猛，已成为航天产业中极具潜力的新业态。2021年，国务 院新闻办公室发布的《2021中国的航天》白皮书明确提出，未来五年要全面建成和运营中国空间站，并 将培育发展太空旅游等太空经济新业态，以提升航天产业的整体规模和效益。此后，政策支持力度不断 加大。2024年1月，《北京市加快商业航天创新发展行动方案（2024—2028年）》进一步明确，要大力 发展太空旅游，形成新的产品服务形态，拓展商业航天活动领域。在政策的有力推动下，2024年中国太 空旅游行业市场规模约为325万元，同比增长5.52%。随着可重复使用火箭技术的不断进步，太空旅游 的运营成本显著降低，这不仅提高了行业的经济效益，也有力地推动了其商业化进程。 相关上市企业：航天科技（000901）、航宇微（300053） 相关企业：中国航天科技集团有限公司、中国空间技术研究院、海南国际商业航天发射有限公司、中国 卫通集团股份有限公司、中科宇航技术股份有限公司、北京蓝天航空科技股份有限公司、上海瀚讯信息 技术股份有限公司、常熟市天银机电股份有限公司 关键词：太空旅游、太空旅游市场规模、太空旅游行业现状、太空旅游发展趋势 ...

Group 1: SpaceX and Starship - SpaceX is challenging physical limits with its Starship, which weighs 7000 pounds and can reach speeds of 25 times the speed of sound, successfully landing in the Indian Ocean [2][6][8] - The Starship's design incorporates "full rapid reusability," a first in rocket design, which could reduce space travel costs by 100 to 1000 times [11][13] - SpaceX's Falcon rockets have completed over 500 landings, and the company is expected to account for about 90% of global orbital cargo transport this year [15][16] Group 2: Cybertruck - The Cybertruck is designed with "function determines form," using ultra-high-strength stainless steel that can withstand armor-piercing arrows [22][24] - It boasts impressive performance metrics, such as towing capabilities exceeding that of the Ford F-350 diesel and acceleration from 0 to 97 km/h in under 3 seconds [30][31] - The design prioritizes a unique aesthetic and functionality, aiming to create a vehicle that embodies masculinity and strength [28][27] Group 3: X Platform and Truth Pursuit - The acquisition of Twitter was motivated by a desire to combat the spread of misinformation and create a platform for truth [34][18] - The new communication system, XChat, is being developed with a focus on security, utilizing a peer-to-peer encryption system [39][40] - XChat aims to replace traditional messaging systems by providing a fully encrypted platform for text, file sharing, and audio/video calls [41][42] Group 4: AI and Future Trends - The future of technology will see the decline of traditional smartphones, replaced by AI-driven devices that communicate in real-time [61][62] - Many jobs will be accelerated in their disappearance due to AI advancements, particularly in digital roles [70][68] - The only solution to the U.S. debt crisis is through the adoption of AI and robotics, which can drive economic growth [71][72] Group 5: Simulation Theory - The world may operate as a simulation, with the most interesting scenarios being the ones that persist [73][78] - The evolution of video games reflects the increasing complexity of simulations, raising questions about the nature of reality [79][80]

Core Insights - China is rapidly advancing its satellite internet capabilities, with significant recent launches marking a shift towards high-density deployment of satellite constellations [1][5][16] - The country is developing two major satellite internet projects: the State Grid Constellation (GW Constellation) and the Qianfan Constellation, both aiming for extensive global coverage [2][5][7] Group 1: GW Constellation - The GW Constellation, managed by China Satellite Network Group, aims to create a global integrated communication system and has successfully launched over 100 satellites [1][5] - The recent launch of the 12th batch of satellites occurred just 20 days after the previous mission, indicating a significant increase in launch frequency [5][16] - The long-term goal for the GW Constellation is to deploy a total of 12,992 satellites in low Earth orbit by 2027 [5][8] Group 2: Qianfan Constellation - The Qianfan Constellation, developed by Shanghai Yanshin Satellite Technology, is China's second large-scale satellite internet project and has also entered the network deployment phase [2][5] - The company completed a record A-round financing of 6.7 billion yuan in February 2024, highlighting strong investor interest in the satellite industry [2][7] - Qianfan plans to have 324 satellites in orbit by mid-2026, increasing to 648 by the end of that year, and aims for 1,296 satellites by 2027 [7] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The rapid deployment of satellite constellations is driven by the urgency to secure orbital resources and frequency allocations, as countries must launch a percentage of their planned satellites within a specified timeframe [8] - The cost of manufacturing low Earth orbit satellites has significantly decreased, now ranging from 30 to 40 million yuan per satellite, facilitating faster deployment [8] - The commercial rocket sector is expected to benefit significantly from the satellite constellation construction, with market potential reaching hundreds of billions in the next decade [16] Group 4: Technological Advancements - The success of satellite internet constellations relies on high-capacity, low-cost launch capabilities, with China's Long March series rockets playing a crucial role [17] - The development of reusable rocket technology is essential for reducing launch costs and increasing frequency, with the industry aiming for rockets to be reused multiple times [17] - The competitive landscape is influenced by the ability to achieve lower costs and higher launch frequencies, with companies focusing on technological advancements to meet these demands [17]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in IPO applications and financing activities among private rocket companies in China indicates a growing interest and investment in the commercial space sector, driven by supportive policies and increasing market demand [1][8]. Group 1: IPO Activities - Several private rocket companies, including Tianbing Technology and Xinghe Power, have initiated IPO counseling processes, with at least six leading firms on the path to going public [1]. - The China Securities Regulatory Commission's new guidelines support unprofitable companies in the commercial space sector to meet the listing standards, enhancing the inclusivity of the market [1]. Group 2: Financing Trends - Xinghe Power completed a D-round financing of 2.4 billion yuan, marking the highest single financing amount for a private rocket company in China as of September 30 [3]. - The commercial space sector has seen a total of 138 financing events in 2024, with disclosed amounts reaching 20.239 billion yuan, setting a historical record [3]. - From the beginning of the year to mid-August, over 120 financing events were reported in the commercial space sector, totaling more than 5.2 billion yuan [4]. Group 3: Shift in Investment Dynamics - Recent financing trends show a shift towards local state-owned enterprises leading investments, while other market-oriented capital is withdrawing [5][6]. - The exit of significant private investors, such as Country Garden Venture Capital from Blue Arrow Aerospace, highlights the changing landscape of funding in the sector [5]. Group 4: Challenges and Market Dynamics - Despite the influx of financing, many private rocket companies still face challenges in securing funds, with some previously prominent firms becoming less visible or ceasing operations [6][9]. - The commercial space industry in China has historically lagged behind global counterparts like SpaceX, primarily due to insufficient capital investment and reliance on external financing [9][11]. Group 5: Profitability and Operational Challenges - Many private commercial space companies exhibit low profitability, with a significant number reporting negative returns on equity and assets [11]. - The path to profitability for companies like Xinghe Power is complicated by the high costs associated with rocket launches and the need for technological advancements to reduce operational expenses [12][14]. Group 6: Future Outlook - The recent policy relaxations have opened up opportunities for private rocket companies to pursue IPOs, but the success of these ventures remains uncertain [8]. - The competitive landscape is intensifying as companies race to achieve successful launches, particularly in the liquid rocket segment, which is crucial for meeting market demands [13][15].

Core Viewpoint - The successful testing of the reusable Zhuque-3 rocket's first stage by Chinese private aerospace company Landspace marks a strategic step for China in catching up with SpaceX's Falcon 9 rocket, with the first flight and recovery planned for November [1] Group 1: Industry Context - Elon Musk acknowledged that excluding SpaceX, China's annual rocket launch numbers far exceed those of the United States, highlighting the limited success of American aerospace companies in producing competitive launch service providers [3] - The American aerospace industry has largely been dominated by SpaceX, with other companies like Blue Origin and United Launch Alliance struggling to achieve significant advancements, particularly in reusable technology [3][4] Group 2: Market Opportunities - The global satellite internet market presents significant opportunities, as many countries lack advanced fiber optic networks, making low-orbit satellite internet services valuable [6] - Chinese companies are actively developing two major satellite constellations, Xingwang and Qianfan, to compete in the satellite internet space, with production capacities of over 200 satellites annually for Xingwang and an average of one satellite per day for Qianfan, aiming for 600 satellites by 2026 [7][9] Group 3: Cost and Operational Efficiency - The significance of reusable rockets lies in their ability to drastically reduce launch costs, as demonstrated by SpaceX's Falcon 9, which lowered the cost per launch from $67 million to $28 million [9] - Achieving reusable rocket technology could lead to a dramatic decrease in China's launch service prices, facilitating rapid deployment of satellite constellations and providing competitive pricing for domestic and international clients [9] Group 4: Future Prospects - The potential for achieving flight-like operations in the rocket industry could be accelerated if multiple commercial rocket companies succeed in reusable technology, potentially allowing China to realize its goal of regularized launches by 2030 instead of 2045 [10][12] - This advancement would enable China's satellite constellations to compete effectively with SpaceX's Starlink and position China as a leading provider of aerospace services globally [12]

Group 1: Breakthroughs in High-End Manufacturing - The first domestically developed large export dual-fuel ro-ro passenger ship has been delivered, capable of using both fuel oil and cleaner liquefied natural gas, with complete independent intellectual property rights [1][3] - The ship features 12 decks, equipped with facilities such as a self-service restaurant, café, and observation hall, with 485 cabins, accommodating 1,800 passengers and over 550 vehicles, primarily for short-distance maritime transport [3] - The dual-fuel passenger ship will operate on the route between Genoa and Palermo in Italy after delivery [5] Group 2: Advancements in Satellite Technology - The first "Xiong'an-made" satellite, "Xiong'an No. 1" (Honghu Technology Verification Star), has completed production, marking a significant leap in the intelligent manufacturing capabilities of the aerospace information industry in Xiong'an New Area [6][8] - The satellite focuses on three key technological innovations: "Bai Ze" high-performance onboard computer, "Chi Yu" large-size flexible solar wing, and "Jin Wu" new generation Hall electric propulsion system, addressing challenges in computing power, energy constraints, and propulsion efficiency [8][9] Group 3: Developments in Reusable Rocket Technology - The reusable rocket Zhuque-3 has successfully completed fueling integration and static ignition tests, entering the critical preparation phase for its maiden flight, designed for large constellation networking tasks [11] - Zhuque-3 features a diameter of 4.5 meters for the first and second stages, a fairing diameter of 5.2 meters, a total length of 66.1 meters, a launch mass of approximately 570 tons, and a thrust exceeding 750 tons, capable of autonomous high-precision return and soft landing for reuse [11][13] - China is actively promoting breakthroughs in reusable rocket technology, with multiple rockets, including Zhuque-3 and Tianlong-3, set for maiden flights or relevant tests this year [13]