Core Viewpoint - Shandong Expressway is a leading player in the national highway sector, with strong revenue performance and a focus on infrastructure investment and management [1][2]. Group 1: Business Performance - In Q3 2025, Shandong Expressway achieved a revenue of 16.841 billion yuan, ranking first among 20 companies in the industry, significantly higher than the industry average of 4.278 billion yuan [2]. - The company's net profit for the same period was 3.264 billion yuan, ranking third in the industry, with the top performer, China Merchants Expressway, reporting a net profit of 4.423 billion yuan [2]. Group 2: Financial Ratios - As of Q3 2025, Shandong Expressway's debt-to-asset ratio was 63.83%, a decrease from 64.93% year-on-year but still above the industry average of 41.31% [3]. - The company's gross profit margin was 33.23%, an increase from 27.82% year-on-year, yet lower than the industry average of 46.20% [3]. Group 3: Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, the number of A-share shareholders increased by 32.40% to 44,900, while the average number of shares held per shareholder decreased by 24.77% to 107,600 [5]. - Major shareholders include Huatai-PineBridge SSE Dividend ETF and Southern S&P China A-share Large Cap Dividend Low Volatility ETF, with significant increases in their holdings [5]. Group 4: Strategic Developments - On October 21, 2025, the controlling shareholder, High-Speed Group, planned to transfer 7% of its shares to Wantong Expressway, which will allow Wantong to nominate one director, optimizing the shareholding structure [6]. - The company is focused on shareholder returns and is expected to see steady growth in net profit, projected at 3.346 billion yuan, 3.630 billion yuan, and 3.871 billion yuan for 2025 to 2027 [6].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an "Accumulate" rating for Shandong Expressway [1]. Core Views - Shandong Expressway is recognized as an excellent toll road operator in Shandong Province, benefiting from the completion of core road asset renovations and expansions, which drive steady revenue growth [7][8]. - The company focuses on shareholder value return through consistent high dividends and dynamic share buybacks, with a stable shareholding structure supported by state-owned assets [20][24]. - The report forecasts steady growth in net profit and earnings per share from 2025 to 2027, with expected net profits of 33.83 billion, 36.38 billion, and 37.06 billion yuan respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 5.8%, 7.5%, and 1.9% [6][8]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Shandong Expressway operates approximately 2,913 kilometers of toll roads, with 1,604 kilometers owned and 1,309 kilometers managed under the Shandong Expressway Group [18][49]. - The company has a strong state-owned background, with the controlling shareholder holding 70.29% of the shares, ensuring stable governance [20]. Revenue and Profitability - The company’s total revenue for 2024 is projected at 28.49 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 7.3% [6]. - The main revenue sources include toll fees, project construction, and engineering services, with toll fees accounting for 33.88% of total revenue in 2024 [28]. Financial Projections - The report anticipates that the company will achieve revenues of 285.03 billion, 287.97 billion, and 289.24 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding growth rates of 0%, 1%, and 0.4% [9]. - The expected earnings per share for the same period are 0.70, 0.75, and 0.77 yuan [6][8]. Market Position and Growth Drivers - The company benefits from the expansion of the highway network in Shandong Province, with plans to increase the total highway mileage to 15,000 kilometers by 2035 [53]. - The growth in vehicle ownership in Shandong, which reached 26.9 million in 2023, supports the increase in traffic volume on the highways [56]. Investment and Diversification - Shandong Expressway is diversifying its operations into areas such as electromechanical engineering, product sales, and railway transportation, leveraging its experience in highway investment and operation [7][8]. - The company’s investment income, particularly from long-term equity investments, is a significant contributor to its profitability, with investment income projected at 14.03 billion yuan for 2024 [77].

Core Viewpoint - The company has entered into two significant electromechanical engineering contracts for the approved road expansion project, which will enhance the capacity and service level of the road, thereby strengthening its core competitiveness in the toll road industry [1][2]. Group 1: Contract Details - The company signed an electromechanical engineering contract with Guangdong Xinyue for JD1 section, with a contract value of RMB 422 million [1]. - The company also signed an electromechanical engineering contract with Beijing Gongke Feida for JD2 section, with a contract value of RMB 289 million [1]. - Both contracts pertain to a total length of approximately 68.861 kilometers, covering systems such as toll, monitoring, communication, power supply, and lighting [1]. Group 2: Strategic Importance - The execution of the approved road expansion project is part of the company's main business in investment, construction, operation, and maintenance of highways [2]. - This project is expected to enhance the road's traffic capacity and service level, aligning with the company's development strategy and reinforcing its competitive edge in the toll road sector [2].