Core Insights - The new housing market is experiencing a steady recovery in demand and supply, particularly in major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Chengdu, and Hangzhou, while second-hand housing transactions continue to show a slight decline [1][2][3] - The land market is also witnessing a cyclical rebound in transaction volume [1] Market Performance - In September 2025, the average sales absorption rate for new launches in 30 key cities was 39%, a slight decrease of 3 percentage points from August but an increase of 10 percentage points year-on-year [2][3] - The market remains stable at a high level, with varying performance across different cities [2][3] City-Specific Trends - Chengdu had the highest absorption rate at 76%, followed by Changsha at 72%, and both Hangzhou and Xiamen at 67% [6] - Cities like Shanghai, Chengdu, and Hangzhou saw a slight decline in absorption rates but maintained above 40% [6] - In contrast, cities such as Nanjing, Kunming, and Jinan reported absorption rates below 20%, indicating a continued sluggish market [6] Project Performance - New regulations and high-quality projects are driving sales, with significant absorption rates for new launches in cities like Wuhan and Chengdu [8] - Notable projects achieving 100% absorption rates include Chengdu's招商锦城序 and 南京金基屿樾府 [9] Luxury Market Insights - The luxury market in Shanghai and Hangzhou is seeing increased activity, with high-end projects like 金陵华庭 achieving remarkable sales figures [10][11] - The market for luxury properties is not uniformly strong, as only projects with prime locations and superior quality are maintaining high sales rates [16] Discount Strategies - In weaker second-tier cities like Xi'an, Suzhou, and Zhengzhou, developers are employing discount strategies and enhanced commission structures to boost sales [14][15] Future Outlook - The new housing transaction volume is expected to remain low, with potential year-on-year declines due to high base effects from the previous year [14] - Market differentiation is likely to continue, with core cities maintaining high activity levels while others may struggle with low absorption rates [16]

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is experiencing a weak recovery trend, with new home transactions expected to rebound slightly in September due to increased supply and discounts, but overall growth remains limited due to weak consumer confidence and spending [1][22]. Market Performance - In August, the average opening sales rate in 30 key cities reached 42%, an increase of 12 percentage points month-on-month and 16 percentage points year-on-year, marking a return to the year's high [2][21]. - Cities like Chongqing, Changsha, Chengdu, and Hangzhou saw sales rates exceeding 60%, driven by the introduction of popular new projects [4][21]. City-Specific Trends - Major cities such as Shanghai and Shenzhen showed stable increases in sales rates, while second-tier cities like Wuhan and Nanjing continued their weak recovery [4][21]. - In contrast, weaker second and third-tier cities like Qingdao and Foshan experienced sales rates below 20%, indicating ongoing market sluggishness [4][21]. High-Quality Projects - New regulations and high-quality projects have positively impacted short-term market heat, with premium properties outperforming traditional projects in sales rates [9][21]. - Notable high-performing projects in August included those in Chengdu, Chongqing, and Nanjing, which achieved high sales rates due to their strong product offerings [10][11]. Luxury Market Dynamics - The luxury market in cities like Shanghai, Hangzhou, and Ningbo has seen increased activity, with flagship projects experiencing strong demand and high sales rates [13][21]. - For instance, the Shanghai One project achieved a remarkable sales performance, with multiple rounds of sales quickly selling out [14][21]. Discount Strategies in Weak Markets - In weaker markets, such as Xi'an and Wuhan, developers have resorted to discount strategies to boost sales, with significant price reductions leading to improved sales figures [18][21]. - Projects in these cities have implemented various promotional strategies, including special pricing and increased commission for sales channels, to enhance market performance [19][21]. Future Outlook - The market is expected to continue its weak recovery in September, with traditional marketing peaks and increased supply potentially aiding new home sales, although overall growth is anticipated to remain limited [22]. - The differentiation between cities and projects will persist, with core cities likely to maintain high market activity while weaker cities may struggle unless they offer compelling value propositions [22].