在一系列"止跌回稳"的政策作用下，一二手房成交总量释放出一个重要的"止跌"信号。 CRIC监测的30个重点城市前10月一二手房成交总量为2.74亿平方米，累计同比与2024年同期持平。其中二手房成交同比增长接近6%。 这意味着，中国房地产行业住房需求规模总体稳定。 从城市角度来看，30城中有半数城市一二手房成交总量累计同比为正增长。 二手房成交占比持续上升 2025年前10月，30个重点城市一二手房成交面积27443万平方米，较2024年同期持平。 从近五年一二手房成交总量变化趋势来看，2021年前10月一二手成交总量为近年最高水平，达到3.89亿平方米以上，2022年前10月滑落至2.73亿平方米， 2024年和2025年前10月均维持在2.7亿平方米上下，总体需求持稳。 从新房和二手房变化趋势可以看出，中国房地产市场正在经历一场深刻的结构性洗牌。 近五年来重点30城新房成交占比逐年下滑，至2025年前10月重点30城新房成交不足1亿平方米，同比下降7%，占一二手房成交总量的比重从2021年的六成 以上降至不到四成。 与之相对应的是二手房成交占比逐年上升，2021年前10月二手房成交占比为38%左右，至20 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the contrasting performance of domestic tourism and the real estate market during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays, with significant increases in travel but a decline in property sales [2][24]. Domestic Travel Performance - During the 8-day holiday, there were 888 million domestic trips, an increase of 123 million compared to the 7-day holiday in 2024, with total spending reaching 809 billion yuan, up by 108.2 billion yuan [2]. Real Estate Market Overview - The real estate market showed a lackluster performance, with a more than 30% decline in subscription area in 22 key cities compared to the previous month and year [2][4]. - Major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen experienced diminishing effects from new policies, leading to a flat market response [7][15]. Subscription and Sales Data - Subscription area during the holiday was only 160.9 million square meters, down 38% month-on-month and 33% year-on-year [4]. - Specific city performances varied, with Beijing seeing a 54% drop in subscription area, while Guangzhou had a 232% increase month-on-month but a 31% decrease year-on-year [5]. Project Performance - Hot-selling projects were primarily located in core areas and offered significant discounts, indicating a focus on value for money among buyers [13][24]. - In Chengdu, the average visitor count per project increased by 90%, with a 67% rise in average sales, although overall sales remained at a low level [9]. Second-Hand Housing Market - The second-hand housing market saw a 55% year-on-year decline in transaction volume across 8 key cities, with only 5,029 units sold during the holiday [20][21]. - Beijing led the decline with a 76% drop in transactions, while cities like Qingdao experienced a notable increase due to a low base effect [23][24]. Future Outlook - The overall transaction volume is expected to remain low in October, with potential further declines compared to the previous year due to high base effects from last October [24].

Core Insights - The overall real estate market returned to a low point in Q3 2025, with both new home supply and demand declining year-on-year and month-on-month. New home supply decreased by approximately 20% in Q3, with a cumulative year-on-year decline of 18% [1][2]. - New home transactions showed a steady decline, entering a period of weakness after the mid-year surge, despite favorable policies introduced in major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen since August [1][9]. - The forecast for Q4 suggests a potential stabilization in new home transactions, with an expected year-on-year decline of around 10% for the entire year [1][28]. Supply Analysis - In Q3 2025, the supply of new homes in major cities saw a seasonal decline, with a year-on-year drop of 21% in July and August, and a cumulative decline of about 20% for the first three quarters [2][5]. - The supply in first-tier cities showed relative resilience, with a total supply area of 529 million square meters in Q3, a month-on-month decline of 15% but a year-on-year decline of only 3% [7]. - Second and third-tier cities continued to face pressure, with some cities like Chengdu and Tianjin showing signs of stabilization, while others like Wuhan and Nanjing experienced significant declines [7][15]. Transaction Insights - New home transaction volumes reached a near five-year low, with a total transaction area of 2,867 million square meters in Q3, reflecting an 18% year-on-year decline [9][12]. - The first-tier cities maintained a slight positive growth of 4% year-on-year in cumulative transactions, while second-tier cities saw a decline of around 10% [12][14]. - The second-hand housing market showed a relative stability with a cumulative transaction area of 5,225 million square meters, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2% [17][20]. Price Trends - In August 2025, the sales prices of new residential properties in first-tier cities continued to decline month-on-month but showed a narrowing year-on-year decline, indicating a trend of marginal improvement [22][23]. - The price index for new homes in first-tier cities decreased by 0.9% year-on-year, with Shanghai experiencing a 5.9% increase, while other cities like Beijing and Guangzhou saw declines [22][27]. - The overall price trends suggest that while first-tier cities maintain higher price points, second and third-tier cities are experiencing a steady price correction due to previous oversupply [27][28]. Market Outlook - The market is expected to see a weak recovery in Q4 2025, driven by favorable policies and increased marketing efforts from real estate companies, although the overall transaction volume is likely to remain below previous highs [1][28]. - The differentiation between cities and projects will continue to intensify, with core urban areas likely to maintain higher demand while peripheral projects may struggle [29]. - The second-hand housing market is anticipated to attract more first-time buyers due to price advantages, further impacting the dynamics between new and second-hand homes [29].

Core Insights - The real estate market is experiencing a "golden period" during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays, with significant promotional activities and increased new home supply in major cities [1] - Shenzhen's new policies have notably stimulated the housing market, leading to a surge in sales during the holiday period [2][3] Market Performance - In September, Shenzhen's residential property transactions saw a total of 7,633 units, a month-on-month increase of 20.7% and a year-on-year increase of 38.3% [7] - New home transactions accounted for 3,087 units, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 43.5% and a year-on-year increase of 32.7% [7] - The second-hand housing market also showed resilience, with 5,808 units recorded, marking a month-on-month increase of 10.3% and maintaining over 5,000 units for seven consecutive months [8] Promotional Strategies - Real estate companies are heavily discounting properties to boost sales, with some new homes offered at prices below 85% of the registered price [5] - High-quality property events are being organized across key areas in Shenzhen to stimulate sales through both online and offline channels [5] Market Trends - The market is currently in a "weak recovery" phase, with the increase in transaction volume not yet translating into price stabilization [9] - The trend of "price for volume" continues in the second-hand market, indicating cautious buyer sentiment despite increased sales activity [6][9] - The recovery of the market is dependent on the effectiveness of existing policies and the gradual accumulation of buyer confidence [9]

Group 1 - The real estate market is experiencing a "golden period" during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays, with significant promotional activities and increased new home supply in major cities, driven by favorable policies and seasonal demand [1][9] - In Shenzhen, new policies have led to a notable increase in sales, with some projects selling nearly 20 units in just half a month after the policy announcement, which is three times the sales of the entire previous month [3][9] - Discounts and promotional offers are prevalent in the new home market, with some properties being sold at prices below the registered price, indicating a competitive environment among developers [5][8] Group 2 - The new policies coincided with a peak in new listings, attracting buyers to projects that offer high utility and quick occupancy, thus amplifying the sales volume [5][9] - The second-hand housing market is also seeing a shift, with increased decision-making speed among buyers, although prices remain stable as the market continues to operate on a "price for volume" basis [8][9] - Overall, the market is in a "weak recovery" phase, with September showing a significant increase in both new and second-hand housing transactions, indicating a potential stabilization in the market [9][10]

Core Insights - The real estate market is experiencing a "golden period" during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays, with significant promotional activities and increased new home supply in major cities [1] - Shenzhen's new policies have led to a notable increase in sales, particularly in the Luohu district, where discounts and incentives are attracting buyers [3][4] - The market is characterized by a "price war," with many developers offering substantial discounts to stimulate sales and recover funds [3][4] Market Performance - In September, the total number of residential transactions in Shenzhen reached 7,633, a month-on-month increase of 20.7% and a year-on-year increase of 38.3% [6] - New home transactions accounted for 3,087 units, up 43.5% month-on-month and 32.7% year-on-year, while second-hand homes saw 4,546 transactions, up 8.9% month-on-month and 42.5% year-on-year [6] - The overall market is still in a "weak recovery" phase, with cautious buyer sentiment and ongoing price competition [5][7] Policy Impact - Recent policy changes in major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen have stimulated demand, particularly among first-time buyers and those looking to upgrade [7] - The combination of seasonal demand and favorable policies has contributed to a slight recovery in sales, although price stability remains a concern [7] - The effectiveness of these policies in sustaining market recovery will depend on their implementation and the gradual rebuilding of consumer confidence [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the resurgence of the real estate market during the "golden period" of September and October, driven by promotional activities from real estate companies and favorable policies, leading to increased market activity and new home supply in key cities [1][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The new policies have had an immediate positive effect, with a project in Shenzhen selling nearly 20 units in half a month, three times the sales of August [4]. - In the Luohu District of Shenzhen, the relaxation of purchase restrictions has led to significant sales increases, with projects offering substantial discounts and additional incentives during the holiday period [4][6]. - The competitive nature of the new home market has resulted in widespread discounting, with some properties being offered below the registered price [4][9]. Group 2: Sales Performance - In September, Shenzhen's residential market saw a total of 7,633 signed contracts, a month-on-month increase of 20.7% and a year-on-year increase of 38.3% [11]. - The number of new homes sold reached 3,087, marking a 43.5% month-on-month increase and a 32.7% year-on-year increase [11]. - The second-hand housing market also showed resilience, with 4,546 transactions, reflecting an 8.9% month-on-month increase and a 42.5% year-on-year increase [11]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The market is currently in a "weak recovery" phase, with the traditional sales season contributing to a temporary uptick in activity [10][12]. - Analysts suggest that while the market is showing signs of recovery, the overall confidence and price stability remain fragile, requiring ongoing policy support and economic improvement for sustained growth [12].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is experiencing a weak recovery trend, with new home transactions expected to rebound slightly in September due to increased supply and discounts, but overall growth remains limited due to weak consumer confidence and spending [1][22]. Market Performance - In August, the average opening sales rate in 30 key cities reached 42%, an increase of 12 percentage points month-on-month and 16 percentage points year-on-year, marking a return to the year's high [2][21]. - Cities like Chongqing, Changsha, Chengdu, and Hangzhou saw sales rates exceeding 60%, driven by the introduction of popular new projects [4][21]. City-Specific Trends - Major cities such as Shanghai and Shenzhen showed stable increases in sales rates, while second-tier cities like Wuhan and Nanjing continued their weak recovery [4][21]. - In contrast, weaker second and third-tier cities like Qingdao and Foshan experienced sales rates below 20%, indicating ongoing market sluggishness [4][21]. High-Quality Projects - New regulations and high-quality projects have positively impacted short-term market heat, with premium properties outperforming traditional projects in sales rates [9][21]. - Notable high-performing projects in August included those in Chengdu, Chongqing, and Nanjing, which achieved high sales rates due to their strong product offerings [10][11]. Luxury Market Dynamics - The luxury market in cities like Shanghai, Hangzhou, and Ningbo has seen increased activity, with flagship projects experiencing strong demand and high sales rates [13][21]. - For instance, the Shanghai One project achieved a remarkable sales performance, with multiple rounds of sales quickly selling out [14][21]. Discount Strategies in Weak Markets - In weaker markets, such as Xi'an and Wuhan, developers have resorted to discount strategies to boost sales, with significant price reductions leading to improved sales figures [18][21]. - Projects in these cities have implemented various promotional strategies, including special pricing and increased commission for sales channels, to enhance market performance [19][21]. Future Outlook - The market is expected to continue its weak recovery in September, with traditional marketing peaks and increased supply potentially aiding new home sales, although overall growth is anticipated to remain limited [22]. - The differentiation between cities and projects will persist, with core cities likely to maintain high market activity while weaker cities may struggle unless they offer compelling value propositions [22].

Core Insights - The real estate market has shown signs of stabilization since 2025, with a weak recovery trend as the year progresses [1][20] - There are significant differences in recovery rates among cities, with cities like Hangzhou and Wuhan experiencing improved project sales, while cities like Guangzhou and Xi'an face declining customer conversion rates [1][20] Market Performance - The average project sales rate in key cities increased to 37% in early August 2025, marking a 7 percentage point increase from July and a 16 percentage point increase from August 2024 [2] - The total transaction area in key cities for the first ten days of August was 203.2 million square meters, a 16% decrease compared to the same period last year [2] City-Specific Trends - Core cities such as Beijing, Shenzhen, and Chengdu have shown varying degrees of market heat, with Chengdu achieving a 100% sales rate for a new project, while Beijing's sales rate dropped to 5% [6][7] - Wuhan has seen a significant increase in customer conversion rates, with average visits per project rising by 9.5% and average sales increasing by 67% in early August [9] - In contrast, cities like Guangzhou and Xi'an are experiencing a decline in customer conversion rates, with Guangzhou's conversion rate dropping from 3.92% to 3.63% in early August [15][17] Overall Market Outlook - The market is expected to continue its weak recovery trend, with new home sales likely to remain at low levels, although the year-on-year decline may narrow [20] - The differentiation in market performance among cities is expected to persist, with high-quality projects in core areas likely to maintain strong sales [20]

Group 1 - The real estate market in the first seven months of the year shows mixed signals, with new home transactions experiencing a seasonal decline, reaching a low point for the year and turning negative year-on-year [1][3] - Major cities like Shanghai, Hangzhou, Chengdu, and Nanjing are seeing strong sales in high-end improvement projects, which positively contribute to market stabilization [2][7] - The average sales rate in 30 monitored cities dropped to 30% in July, a decrease of 11 percentage points month-on-month, while the total transaction volume for the first seven months slightly decreased by 1% compared to the previous year [3][4] Group 2 - In July, the transaction volume in 30 key cities was 823 million square meters, a month-on-month decrease of 29% and a year-on-year decrease of 20% [3] - Cities like Hangzhou, Nanning, and Tianjin had sales rates exceeding 60%, driven by the introduction of popular projects [4][5] - The market is expected to continue low-level fluctuations in August, with a potential narrowing of the year-on-year decline to within 5% due to a low base from the previous year [2][3] Group 3 - High-end improvement projects in core urban areas are performing well, with notable sales in Shanghai and Chengdu, where projects like Yanshi in Shanghai achieved a sales rate of 86% and 100% in July [7][8] - Educational properties are also driving demand in cities like Changsha and Xi'an, with projects benefiting from school district advantages seeing higher sales [9][10] - The overall market is expected to maintain a weak recovery trend, with significant differentiation between cities and projects, particularly in core areas with strong amenities and product quality [14]