前7月楼市可谓是喜忧参半。 一方面，新房成交迎来季节性回落，并降至年内低位，累计同比转负。 另一方面，以上海、杭州、成都、南京为代表的城市，核心区高端改善项目热销，对于维稳市场也起到了一定积极作用。 作为传统成交淡季，8月份新房成交绝对量或将延续低位波动，不过基于去年基数较低，同比降幅仍有进一步收窄的可能，累计同比降幅或将延续5%以 内，延续弱复苏走势。 新房成交降至年内低位 30城平均去化率仅三成 根据CRIC监测的重点30个城市来看，7月成交规模为823万平方米，环比降29%，同比下降20%。前7月累计成交7080万平方米，较去年同期微降1%。 一线城市全面回调，仅宁波、惠州等个别城市迎来阶段性回升。 从去化情况来看，市场热度季节性回落，环比持降。 据CRIC监测数据，30个重点城市7月平均开盘去化率环比下降11个百分点至30%，降至年内新低，同比上升3个百分点，仍好于去年同期。 其中，杭州、南宁、天津去化率超六成，主要得益于适销对路网红盘入市带动作用。 从变化趋势来看，各城市去化率环比跌多涨少。北京、上海、深圳、成都、杭州等热点城市本月去化率高位回落，深圳降至4%创近10年来新低。天津、 苏州、郑州、常 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current real estate market continues to show signs of weak recovery, with July witnessing a seasonal decline in market activity, although still outperforming the same period last year [1][19]. Market Performance - In July, the average opening sales rate across 30 key cities dropped to 30%, marking a year-to-date low, with a month-on-month decrease of 11 percentage points but a year-on-year increase of 3 percentage points [4][19]. - Major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen experienced significant declines in sales rates, with Shenzhen hitting a record low of 4% [7][19]. - Cities such as Tianjin and Suzhou saw increases in sales rates, indicating a continuation of weak recovery trends [7]. Hot Selling Projects - Core area high-end projects in cities like Shanghai, Chengdu, and Hangzhou remain the main drivers of sales, with notable examples achieving high sales rates [9][10]. - In Chengdu, top-selling projects were all located in core areas, benefiting from strong product appeal and increased sales efforts from developers [9]. - Educational resources continue to drive demand in cities like Changsha and Xi'an, where school district properties are among the top sellers [11][12]. Product Trends - The introduction of high-efficiency "fourth-generation" residential projects and new regulations has positively impacted short-term market activity, with these projects often outperforming traditional offerings [13][19]. - However, there is a noticeable divergence in sales performance among new projects, with some failing to attract buyers despite product advantages due to inadequate supporting infrastructure [14][19]. Pricing Strategies - In weaker second-tier cities, developers are increasingly resorting to discounting and enhanced commission structures to boost sales, with notable success in cities like Xi'an and Suzhou [16][19]. - Projects in these cities have seen significant sales through aggressive pricing strategies, with many offering discounts of up to 20% [17][19]. Future Outlook - The market is expected to remain in a low transaction volume phase in August, with developers' enthusiasm for launching new projects likely to remain subdued [19]. - However, due to last year's low base, the year-on-year decline in sales may narrow to within 5%, continuing the weak recovery trend [19].

CRIC 克而瑞·研究中心 中国房地产 研报 热销项目|6 月新规项目和高改盘 集中入市支撑去化率攀升 2025 年 克而瑞观点 文/俞倩倩 6月整体楼市延续止跌企稳的弱复苏走势,楼市新房成交微降,而项目去化率环比持增:6月平 均开盘去化率为 41%,环比上升 3pcts,同比上升 11pcts,与 2023年高峰基本持平。充意当前热销 楼盘有什么共性特征?7月又能否延续市场热度稳步回升的态势呢? 一、6 月 30 城平均去化率 41%,优质项目入市托举去化率同环比正增 6月年中业绩冲刺,整体市场热度延续高位震荡,同环比皆增:据 CRIC 调研数据,30个重点城 市 6 月平均开盘去化率为 41%,环比上升 3pcts,同比上升 11pcts,与 2023年高峰基本持平,延续 稳中向好。 41% 023年1月 023年5月 023年7月 023年2月 023年3月 023年4月 023年6月 023年8月 023年11月 023年12月 024年2月 024年3月 024年4月 024年5月 024年6月 024年7月 024年8月 024年9月 024年10月 024年11月 025年1月 025年2月 0 ...

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is experiencing a weak recovery trend, with new home transaction volumes expected to continue fluctuating at low levels in July, although the year-on-year decline may narrow due to a low base from last year [1][23]. Group 1: Market Performance - In June, the average opening sales rate for new homes in 30 major cities was 41%, showing a month-on-month increase of 3 percentage points and a year-on-year increase of 11 percentage points, indicating a stable upward trend [2][22]. - Major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Chengdu, and Hangzhou saw increases in sales rates, while cities like Ningbo and Jiaxing continued to experience low sales rates below 20% [3][22]. - The introduction of high-quality new projects, particularly those with high usable area ratios, has positively impacted market activity, with new regulations promoting the construction of "good houses" [4][22]. Group 2: Project Performance - In Guangzhou, new projects under the new regulations accounted for 60% of the total supply in June, achieving a sales rate 30 percentage points higher than older projects, with some projects exceeding 40% [5][6]. - In Chongqing, new generation residential projects had sales rates above 75%, while traditional residential projects struggled with rates around 20% [7][22]. - High-end properties in core areas of cities like Shanghai and Chengdu have seen strong demand, with some projects achieving over 70% sales on the first day of opening [12][22]. Group 3: Government Policies and Market Dynamics - In cities like Suzhou and Zhengzhou, government-led initiatives such as stock housing buybacks and housing vouchers have helped boost sales in non-core areas [19][22]. - In cities like Beijing and Fuzhou, strategies such as price discounts and increased commissions have successfully driven sales [20][22]. - The overall market is characterized by significant differentiation between cities and projects, with core urban areas maintaining high demand while many peripheral projects struggle [23][22].

Core Insights - The real estate market in the first half of 2025 shows a mixed performance, with some companies thriving while others struggle due to declining sales and a reduction in the number of billion-dollar firms [1] Group 1: Performance of Real Estate Companies - The total sales of the top 100 real estate companies reached 18,364.1 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 11.8%, with the decline rate widening by 1 percentage point compared to the first five months [3] - The number of billion-dollar firms decreased from 6 to 4, with only Poly, Greentown, China Overseas, and China Resources remaining in this category [3] - Major firms are increasingly adopting a "joint development" model, with Poly's total sales of 145.2 billion yuan but only 68.97 billion yuan in equity sales, and Greentown's total sales of 122.1 billion yuan with equity sales around 30 billion yuan, indicating over 70% of projects are developed collaboratively [3] Group 2: Market Trends and Recovery - Despite overall poor performance in the first half, June saw a notable recovery in the real estate market, with top 100 firms achieving a monthly sales amount of 338.96 billion yuan, a month-on-month increase of 14.7% [4] - The contribution rate of first-tier cities to sales increased by 9 percentage points year-on-year, reaching 40%, with Shanghai, Beijing, and Guangzhou being the top three cities [4] - The market is focusing on 90-140 square meter improvement housing, which accounts for 45.7% of the market, while larger high-end products are also gaining traction [4] Group 3: Land Acquisition Activity - The total land acquisition amount for the top 100 firms reached 506.55 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 33.3%, with over 65% of land sales concentrated in the top 20 cities [5] - In Shanghai, a recent land auction attracted 14 firms, with a total transaction price of 21.26 billion yuan and a premium rate exceeding 10% [5] - Fujian-based firms are particularly active in the land auction market, with several ranking among the top bidders [5] Group 4: Future Outlook - The real estate market is expected to continue a weak recovery trend in the second half of 2025, with new home transaction volumes likely to remain low but with a narrowing year-on-year decline [6] - Key land parcels in Guangzhou, such as the core area of the Zhujiang New Town, are anticipated to become focal points for competition among firms in the latter half of the year [8] - Companies are advised to maintain rationality in bidding for core land parcels to avoid challenges in subsequent development phases [8]

Core Viewpoint - The overall real estate market in China is stabilizing, with a notable performance from first-tier cities, while second and third-tier cities are experiencing increased differentiation in sales performance [9][20]. Group 1: Market Performance - In June 2025, the top 100 real estate companies achieved a sales turnover of 338.96 billion yuan, representing a month-on-month increase of 14.7% [10][13]. - The cumulative sales turnover for the first half of 2025 reached 1,652.68 billion yuan, with the new housing transaction volume in 30 key cities totaling 10.34 million square meters, remaining stable compared to the same period last year [10][21]. Group 2: Company Performance - Nearly 60% of the top 100 real estate companies reported month-on-month growth in June, with 28 companies experiencing growth rates exceeding 30%, including notable performers like China Overseas Land & Investment, China Resources Land, and China Jinmao [13][18]. - The sales threshold for the top 30 real estate companies increased by 1.2% year-on-year to 11.98 billion yuan, while other tiers saw slight decreases in their sales thresholds [17][18]. Group 3: Future Expectations - The expectation for July indicates that new housing transaction volumes may continue to fluctuate at low levels, but the year-on-year decline could narrow due to a low base from the previous year, suggesting a weak recovery trend [20][21]. - The differentiation between cities and projects is expected to persist, with core first and second-tier cities likely to maintain strong demand, particularly in cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Chengdu [20][21].

Core Viewpoint - The overall real estate market is showing signs of stabilization and weak recovery in Q2 2025, with new home supply and demand both increasing month-on-month but decreasing year-on-year, indicating significant supply constraints [1][2][6]. Supply - In Q2 2025, new home supply increased month-on-month but decreased by 20% year-on-year, with significant supply constraints remaining [2][6]. - Only first-tier cities saw a notable increase in supply, while second and third-tier cities continued to experience low supply levels, with the largest declines in the latter [4][6]. - The supply situation varied by city, with hotspots like Shanghai, Shenzhen, Chengdu, and Hangzhou experiencing increased supply, while weaker second and third-tier cities like Foshan and Huizhou saw significant declines [6][7]. Transaction Volume - The real estate market showed a weak recovery in Q2 2025, with a slight month-on-month increase in new home transactions, but a year-on-year decline [7][10]. - First-tier cities maintained strong transaction volumes, with cities like Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen showing positive year-on-year growth, while second and third-tier cities experienced mixed results [10][11]. - Overall, the transaction volume is expected to decline in Q3 compared to Q2, but the year-on-year decline may narrow due to last year's low base [27]. Second-hand Transactions - In Q2 2025, second-hand home transactions remained high but showed a downward trend month-on-month, with cities like Shenzhen and Xi'an experiencing significant year-on-year growth [11][14]. - Some third-tier cities also saw substantial growth due to low base effects from the previous year, while others remained in a correction phase [14][15]. Housing Prices - New home prices in 70 cities showed a narrowing year-on-year decline, with first-tier cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen maintaining high prices, while third-tier cities experienced steady price corrections [15][16]. - The price dynamics are influenced by the introduction of high-quality new properties, which have stabilized and slightly increased prices in certain markets [15][16]. Inventory - As of May 2025, the inventory of new homes was 463 million square meters, showing a downward trend due to supply constraints and stable transaction volumes [18][21]. - The inventory turnover period is stabilizing at around 25 months, with first-tier cities showing a significant decrease in inventory risks [21][23]. Outlook - The supply is expected to decline in Q3 2025, with first-tier cities remaining the focus for new launches due to strong demand [25][26]. - The overall market is anticipated to continue its weak recovery, with significant differentiation between core first and second-tier cities and weaker third-tier cities [27].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is gradually stabilizing after a period of adjustment, with notable performance in major cities during May, although significant market differentiation remains evident [1][3][9]. Market Performance - In May, the new housing transaction area in 30 key cities was 10.58 million square meters, a month-on-month decrease of 2% and a year-on-year decrease of 9% [1][9]. - Major cities like Shanghai, Beijing, and Guangzhou showed positive trends, with Shanghai's new housing transactions increasing by 20% month-on-month and 24% year-on-year [3][4]. - Guangzhou's new housing transactions rose by 32% month-on-month and 26% year-on-year, while Beijing saw a 14% month-on-month and 38% year-on-year increase [4][3]. Sales Performance of Leading Companies - The sales revenue of the top 100 real estate companies in May decreased by 17.3% year-on-year, with a slight increase in the decline rate compared to April [10][12]. - Poly Developments achieved a sales revenue of 28.51 billion yuan in May, a month-on-month increase of 15.8% but a year-on-year decrease of 19.3% [10]. - Greentown China reported a sales revenue of 25.5 billion yuan in May, with a year-on-year increase of 9.4% [10]. Market Differentiation - The market is characterized by significant differentiation, with some cities experiencing a decline in new housing transaction volumes [7][8]. - In Chengdu, new housing supply and transaction volumes both saw declines, with new supply down by 38.84% year-on-year [8]. - In Shenzhen, core area projects had a high sales rate exceeding 80%, while non-core area projects struggled with rates below 50% [8]. Product Strategy and Market Response - Companies are focusing on launching "good housing" new regulation products to improve sales performance, achieving high sales rates [1][9]. - Developers are adapting their strategies by enhancing existing projects and improving service quality to compete with new regulation products [13]. - The market is expected to continue its weak recovery trend, with a focus on improving product quality and marketing efforts as companies approach mid-year performance targets [14].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is expected to continue a weak recovery trend in May, with a focus on quality over quantity in project launches, particularly in cities like Guangzhou and Chengdu, which may lead to localized market improvements [1][21]. Market Performance - In April, the average project de-stocking rate in 30 key cities was 38%, a decrease of 6 percentage points month-on-month but an increase of 13 percentage points year-on-year, maintaining a high level for 2023 [3][4]. - The overall market heat in April showed a slight decline compared to March, but year-on-year comparisons remained positive, indicating a stabilization in the market [4][21]. - Cities like Chengdu, Changsha, Zhengzhou, Hangzhou, and Tianjin saw de-stocking rates exceeding 60%, primarily due to the introduction of quality improvement projects [4][21]. Project Characteristics - New regulations and high-efficiency projects are gaining popularity, with cities experiencing stable growth in de-stocking rates attributed to the launch of core area improvement projects [8][9]. - In Guangzhou, 13 new regulation products accounted for 60% of the market, with a notable project, Poly Tianyi, achieving a 37% de-stocking rate upon its launch [8]. - In Zhengzhou, two new projects significantly outperformed traditional offerings, indicating a strong demand for high-quality housing even in a sluggish market [9]. Supporting Factors - Quality infrastructure, particularly in transportation and education, is crucial for attracting buyers, with projects near transit lines and reputable schools performing well [10][13]. - The trend of "price for volume" is evident in second-tier cities like Chengdu and Chongqing, where discounts and enhanced commission structures have led to improved sales performance during the May Day holiday [15][18]. Future Outlook - The market is anticipated to maintain a weak recovery trend in May, with a focus on quality project launches potentially driving localized improvements [21]. - Major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Hangzhou may see sustained market heat if suitable high-quality projects are introduced, while cities like Wuhan and Tianjin are expected to stabilize after previous adjustments [21]. - However, weaker second-tier cities such as Fuzhou, Nanning, and Kunming face challenges with high inventory levels, making overall de-stocking prospects less optimistic [21].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market showed signs of stabilization in Q1 2025, with a potential continuation of weak recovery in Q2, particularly in hot cities [1][3]. Group 1: Market Overview - In Q1 2025, the overall real estate market stabilized, with total transaction area for new and second-hand homes reaching 82.04 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 17% [3][5]. - New home transactions in 115 key cities remained flat compared to last year, with a total area of 51.31 million square meters [5]. - First-tier cities outperformed second and third-tier cities, with first-tier cities showing a 26% year-on-year increase, while third and fourth-tier cities experienced an 8% decline [5][7]. Group 2: City-Specific Trends - Hot cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Hangzhou, and Chengdu saw stronger recovery in second-hand home markets compared to new homes [7]. - Cities such as Guangzhou, Tianjin, and Wuhan showed signs of weak recovery, with transaction levels returning to last year's figures [9]. - In contrast, cities like Hefei and Nanjing displayed insufficient growth momentum, with declining customer conversion rates [16][19]. Group 3: Product and Market Dynamics - Strong product offerings, particularly new regulations for high-efficiency housing, have driven market interest, with new products achieving high sales rates [22][23]. - Well-developed infrastructure, such as transit-oriented developments and school districts, has become a key selling point for properties [27]. - Discounted pricing and strong marketing strategies for entry-level homes have contributed to increased sales volume [30]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The market is expected to continue its weak recovery trend into Q2 2025, with new home quality upgrades attracting second-hand home buyers [31][32]. - The average sales price of second-hand homes in core cities has increased, indicating a warming market that extends to first-time buyers [31].