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北摩高科(002985):2024年年报及2025年一季报点评:起落架业务有望放量,民航刹车制动产品迎国产化机遇
EBSCN· 2025-04-29 06:13
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a favorable outlook for investment over the next 6-12 months [6]. Core Insights - The company experienced a significant decline in revenue in 2024, with a total revenue of 538 million yuan, down 43.62% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 16 million yuan, down 92.57% [1][2]. - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 262 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 9.27%, and a net profit of 53.8 million yuan, although this was still a decline of 26.72% compared to the previous year [1][2]. - The company’s landing gear business is expected to ramp up, with significant revenue potential as various models reach important application milestones [3]. - The domestic aviation brake products are poised to benefit from the trend of localization and self-sufficiency in the aviation supply chain, particularly as domestic airlines face rising import costs [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company’s revenue from various segments included 163 million yuan from aircraft brake control systems, 210 million yuan from wheels, 65.83 million yuan from testing, and 83.62 million yuan from landing gear, with respective year-on-year changes of -60.60%, -35.98%, -65.80%, and +1766.18% [2]. - The gross margins for these segments were 56.08%, 63.46%, 64.90%, and 13.91% respectively, indicating a shift towards lower-margin products [2]. Business Development - The company has made progress in the research and delivery of multiple landing gear types, with expectations for continued revenue growth in 2025 [3]. - A new surface treatment production line for military and civilian large aircraft landing gear has been put into operation, which is expected to enhance cost efficiency and support production and delivery timelines [3]. Market Outlook - The report forecasts a recovery in net profit, projecting 188 million yuan in 2025, 355 million yuan in 2026, and 461 million yuan in 2027, with corresponding EPS estimates of 0.57, 1.07, and 1.39 yuan [4][5]. - The company’s current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 47x for 2025, 25x for 2026, and 19x for 2027, suggesting potential for valuation improvement as earnings recover [4][5].
北摩高科(002985):起落架收入快速增长 民机刹车盘空间大
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-04-29 02:48
Core Viewpoint - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for 2024, primarily due to delayed contract signings and an increase in the proportion of lower-margin landing gear business, but anticipates a recovery in demand and growth in the coming years [1][4]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 538 million yuan, a year-over-year decrease of 43.62%, and a net profit of 16.15 million yuan, down 92.57% year-over-year [1]. - The company's various business segments experienced revenue declines, with the aircraft brake control systems and wheels generating 163 million yuan (down 60.60%), testing and inspection services at 210 million yuan (down 35.98%), and brake discs at 66 million yuan (down 65.80%) [2]. - The landing gear business, however, saw a remarkable increase in revenue to 84 million yuan, a year-over-year growth of 1766.18%, marking it as a new growth curve for the company [2]. Group 2: Future Outlook - For Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 262 million yuan, a year-over-year increase of 9.27%, while net profit was 54 million yuan, down 26.72% due to increased R&D expenses and credit impairment losses [3]. - The company expects demand in the military aircraft sector to gradually recover, with significant growth anticipated in the wheels and brake discs segments, and the landing gear business emerging as a new growth point [3]. - The civil aviation brake business is expected to benefit from domestic substitution opportunities, particularly as the cost of imported materials rises, leading to potential rapid growth [3]. Group 3: Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company forecasts net profits of 249 million yuan, 351 million yuan, and 459 million yuan for 2025-2027, reflecting a downward adjustment due to increased R&D investment and a higher proportion of lower-margin landing gear revenue [4]. - The target price for the company is set at 40.60 yuan, based on a 54 times PE ratio for 2025, indicating a significant increase from the previous target of 23.46 yuan [4].