Core Viewpoint - The threat of a "51% attack" on Bitcoin is significantly underestimated by the market, with attackers potentially able to control the network for approximately $6 billion [5][2][4]. Group 1: Attack Cost and Feasibility - Attackers can achieve control over the Bitcoin network by investing $4.6 billion in hardware, $1.34 billion in data center construction, and incurring weekly electricity costs of about $130 million [2][4]. - The total cost of executing a 51% attack is estimated to be only 0.26% of Bitcoin's total network value, which raises serious concerns about Bitcoin's future viability and security [9]. Group 2: Economic Incentives and Market Dynamics - The thriving derivatives market for Bitcoin provides economic incentives for potential attackers, allowing them to establish short positions with less than 10% of the daily trading volume to gain substantial profits that could cover attack costs [8][9]. - The ability to profit from a price drop during an attack enhances the economic feasibility of such actions, making it a credible threat [4][9]. Group 3: Industry Perspectives and Counterarguments - There is a divide in the industry regarding the severity of the attack risk, with some experts arguing that the time required to accumulate and deploy mining equipment makes such an attack impractical [10][11]. - Concerns about market manipulation and the potential for exchanges to suspend trading during suspicious activities are also highlighted as factors that could deter attackers [11][4]. - Historical instances of 51% attacks on smaller blockchains, such as Bitcoin Gold and Ethereum Classic, demonstrate that while attacks can occur, the scale and support for larger networks like Bitcoin may provide more resilience [12][11].

Group 1 - Bitcoin (BTC) has been trading within a narrow range of 2.3% since a sharp decline from $112,500, with a lack of momentum attributed to the U.S. Labor Day holiday and regulatory market closures [2] - The confidence in the $108,000 support level for Bitcoin is diminishing, as indicated by the derivatives market, with a potential liquidation risk of $390 million in leveraged long positions if the price drops below $107,000 [4][9] - The annualized premium for Bitcoin's monthly futures is currently at 7%, remaining stable within a neutral range of 5% to 10%, with previous bullish signals noted on August 24 [5] Group 2 - A significant Bitcoin whale has transferred $4 billion worth of Bitcoin to Ethereum (ETH), highlighting a "rotation" phenomenon as altcoins appear to benefit from the accumulation by enterprises [5] - The Deribit skew indicator shows a 7% premium for put options compared to call options, indicating a bearish sentiment among whales and market makers regarding the $108,000 support level [7] - A net outflow of $127 million from U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) signals unease among holders, reflecting broader macroeconomic uncertainties or Bitcoin-specific weaknesses [7]