最新研究显示，比特币面临的"51%攻击"威胁被市场严重低估，攻击者仅需约60亿美元就能摧毁比特币。 10月9日，杜克大学金融学教授Campbell Harvey在最新研究中警告，尽管比特币和黄金都被视为"货币贬值交易"的宠儿，但比特币面临的风险远超 黄金。 攻击者可通过购买价值46亿美元的硬件设备、投入13.4亿美元建设数据中心，再加上每周约1.3亿美元的电力成本，在一周内完成对比特币网络的 控制。 通过衍生品市场做空比特币，攻击者可在比特币价格暴跌时获得巨额利润，足以覆盖攻击成本。Harvey强调： 你可以用60亿美元摧毁比特币的价值，虽然这种攻击听起来过于技术性，但可信度很高。 美国比特币公司总裁Matt Prusak认为这种担忧被夸大，积累和部署挖矿设备需要数年时间，而且做空需要巨额抵押品，交易所也可能暂停可疑交 易。 Harvey的论文指出，交易者可建立空头头寸，用不到日均交易量10%的资金获得巨额利润，足以覆盖攻击成本。 这种利润机制使得攻击的经济可行性大幅提升，特别是考虑到攻击成本仅占比特币网络总价值的0.26%，远低于许多投资者的预期。Harvey强 调： 攻击成本低廉是比特币未来可行性和安全性 ...

Core Insights - Bitcoin faces a significantly underestimated threat of a "51% attack," which could be executed with approximately $6 billion [1][2] - The attack could be completed within a week by investing $4.6 billion in hardware, $1.34 billion in data centers, and incurring weekly electricity costs of about $130 million [1] - The economic feasibility of such an attack is enhanced by the current thriving derivatives market for Bitcoin, allowing traders to short Bitcoin and potentially cover attack costs [5][7] Group 1: 51% Attack Threat - A "51% attack" occurs when a single entity controls more than half of the blockchain network's computing power, enabling them to alter the ledger and execute double-spending attacks [3] - The cost of executing a 51% attack is only 0.26% of Bitcoin's total network value, which is much lower than many investors expect [7] - Concerns about the feasibility of such attacks are heightened by the lack of effective market manipulation safeguards in many regions [7] Group 2: Industry Perspectives - There is a divide in the industry regarding the risk of a 51% attack, with some experts, like Matt Prusak, arguing that the economic feasibility is overstated due to the time required to accumulate mining equipment and the need for substantial collateral to short Bitcoin [2][8] - Historical instances of 51% attacks on smaller blockchains, such as Bitcoin Gold and Ethereum Classic, highlight vulnerabilities in less supported networks [8] - The growing acceptance of Bitcoin as a hedge against macroeconomic risks is reflected in the increasing number of publicly traded companies incorporating Bitcoin into their balance sheets, rising from under 100 to over 200 in 2025 [9] Group 3: Bitcoin as a Hedge - Bitcoin is increasingly viewed as a potential hedge against currency devaluation, similar to gold, especially in the context of rising U.S. debt and inflation concerns [9][10] - Reports indicate that central banks may begin to include Bitcoin in their reserves by 2030, reflecting a shift in the perception of digital assets as complementary to traditional currencies [11] - The decline in the dollar's share of global reserves from 60% in 2000 to an expected 41% by 2025 is contributing to the rising interest in both gold and Bitcoin [11]

Group 1 - The core argument of the article is that Bitcoin faces a significantly underestimated threat of a "51% attack," which could be executed with approximately $6 billion [2][3][6]. - Campbell Harvey, a finance professor at Duke University, warns that the risks associated with Bitcoin are much greater than those associated with gold, despite both being viewed as hedges against currency devaluation [3][10]. - The cost breakdown for a potential attack includes $4.6 billion for hardware, $1.34 billion for data center construction, and about $130 million weekly for electricity, allowing attackers to gain control of the Bitcoin network within a week [4][6]. Group 2 - The article explains that attackers could profit significantly by shorting Bitcoin during a price drop, which would cover the costs of the attack [6][11]. - Harvey emphasizes that the attack cost represents only 0.26% of Bitcoin's total network value, which is much lower than many investors expect, raising serious concerns about Bitcoin's future viability and security [12]. - The article notes that the current thriving derivatives market for Bitcoin provides economic incentives for potential 51% attacks, as traders can establish short positions with less than 10% of the daily trading volume [11]. Group 3 - There is a divergence of opinions in the industry regarding the risk of such attacks. Matt Prusak, president of a U.S. Bitcoin company, argues that the concerns are exaggerated, citing the time required to accumulate and deploy mining equipment [7][15]. - Prusak also points out that shorting Bitcoin requires substantial collateral, and exchanges may suspend suspicious trading, making it difficult for attackers to realize profits [16]. - The article mentions that other smaller blockchains, such as Bitcoin Gold and Ethereum Classic, have experienced 51% attacks but managed to survive [17][18]. Group 4 - The article discusses the growing acceptance of Bitcoin as a potential hedge against macroeconomic risks, with companies increasingly adding Bitcoin to their balance sheets [20][21]. - A report from Deutsche Bank suggests that Bitcoin and gold may become significant components of central bank reserves by 2030, reflecting a shift in reserve strategies amid rising geopolitical risks and inflation concerns [23]. - The report indicates that the share of the dollar in global reserves has decreased from 60% in 2000 to an estimated 41% by 2025, benefiting both gold and Bitcoin [23].

当一项资产的市值达到2.5万亿美元规模，而其安全基石可能被不足其市值0.24%的资金撼动时，这项财 富载体需要经受新的考验。据华尔街见闻报道，10月9日，杜克大学金融学教授Campbell Harvey在研究 中警告，理论上60亿美元资金就能对比特币发起系统性攻击。 实施此类攻击需要满足多个条件。攻击者需要专业知识，需要组织计算设备，需要安置设备的物理空 间。这个空间需要提供稳定电力供应。攻击者还需要在交易平台建立账户体系，以进行大规模空头操 作。 比特币网络当前的算力分布呈现特定状态。全球主要矿池的算力占比都控制在特定阈值内。这种分布状 态在一定程度上提供安全保障。 不同司法管辖区的监管政策存在差异。某些地区对加密货币交易的监管相对有限。这种监管差异可能影 响攻击者的决策过程。同时，全球算力的地理分布也在持续变化，这种变化可能带来新的安全考量。 众多周知，比特币网络安全建立在经济激励基础上。矿工通过提供计算服务获得收益。当攻击成本超过 潜在收益时，系统被认为是安全的。Campbell Harvey的研究对这个基本假设提出疑问。60亿美元的攻 击成本与可能获得的收益之间，存在极大的不对称性。 比特币当前市值约 ...

Core Viewpoint - The threat of a "51% attack" on Bitcoin is significantly underestimated by the market, with attackers potentially able to control the network for approximately $6 billion [5][2][4]. Group 1: Attack Cost and Feasibility - Attackers can achieve control over the Bitcoin network by investing $4.6 billion in hardware, $1.34 billion in data center construction, and incurring weekly electricity costs of about $130 million [2][4]. - The total cost of executing a 51% attack is estimated to be only 0.26% of Bitcoin's total network value, which raises serious concerns about Bitcoin's future viability and security [9]. Group 2: Economic Incentives and Market Dynamics - The thriving derivatives market for Bitcoin provides economic incentives for potential attackers, allowing them to establish short positions with less than 10% of the daily trading volume to gain substantial profits that could cover attack costs [8][9]. - The ability to profit from a price drop during an attack enhances the economic feasibility of such actions, making it a credible threat [4][9]. Group 3: Industry Perspectives and Counterarguments - There is a divide in the industry regarding the severity of the attack risk, with some experts arguing that the time required to accumulate and deploy mining equipment makes such an attack impractical [10][11]. - Concerns about market manipulation and the potential for exchanges to suspend trading during suspicious activities are also highlighted as factors that could deter attackers [11][4]. - Historical instances of 51% attacks on smaller blockchains, such as Bitcoin Gold and Ethereum Classic, demonstrate that while attacks can occur, the scale and support for larger networks like Bitcoin may provide more resilience [12][11].

最新研究显示，比特币面临的"51%攻击"威胁被市场严重低估，攻击者仅需约60亿美元就能摧毁比特币。 10月9日，杜克大学金融学教授Campbell Harvey在最新研究中警告，尽管比特币和黄金都被视为"货币贬值交易"的宠儿，但比特币面临的风险远超 黄金。 攻击者可通过购买价值46亿美元的硬件设备、投入13.4亿美元建设数据中心，再加上每周约1.3亿美元的电力成本，在一周内完成对比特币网络的 控制。 （隔夜比特币反弹失败，较日高一度下挫约3.3%） 通过衍生品市场做空比特币，攻击者可在比特币价格暴跌时获得巨额利润，足以覆盖攻击成本。Harvey强调： 你可以用60亿美元摧毁比特币的价值，虽然这种攻击听起来过于技术性，但可信度很高。 美国比特币公司总裁Matt Prusak认为这种担忧被夸大，积累和部署挖矿设备需要数年时间，而且做空需要巨额抵押品，交易所也可能暂停可疑交 易。 51%攻击：比特币的根本性威胁 51%攻击是指单一方控制区块链网络超过一半算力的情况。 Harvey的论文指出，交易者可建立空头头寸，用不到日均交易量10%的资金获得巨额利润，足以覆盖攻击成本。 这种利润机制使得攻击的经济可行性大幅提升， ...