Market Overview - Indian share markets are closed on March 3 due to the Holi festival holiday, with trading suspended on both the National Stock Exchange (NSE) and the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) [1] - The Multi Commodity Exchange of India (MCX) will resume trading in the evening session from 5 pm to 11 pm [2] Global Market Trends - Major Asian indices experienced selling pressure, with Japan's Nikkei 225 down by 1.71% to 57,065, Hong Kong's Hang Seng down by 0.24% to 25,985, Taiwan's Weighted Index down by 0.36% to 34,967, and South Korea's KOSPI down by 2.42% [2] - Conversely, Singapore's Straits Times index gained 0.94% [2] Crude Oil Prices - Crude oil prices surged amid geopolitical tensions, with Brent crude increasing by approximately 1% to USD 78.52 per barrel [3] Domestic Market Performance - On March 2, domestic equity benchmarks faced a significant sell-off due to escalating military tensions between the US, Israel, and Iran, leading to a global "risk-off" sentiment [4] - The Sensex closed at 80,238.85 points, down 1,048.34 points or 1.29%, while the Nifty ended at 24,865.70 points, down 312.95 points or 1.24% [4] - Market participants are expected to track global cues and crude oil price movements when trading resumes after the holiday [4]

受美国和以色列对伊朗发动攻击，以及随之而来的原油价格急涨影响，投资者的风险规避情绪明显增 强…… 在 3 月 2 日的东京股市上，日经平均指数大幅回落。盘中跌幅与上周末相比一度超过 1500点 ，日均平 均股指一度跌破 5 万 8000 点关口。受美国和以色列对伊朗发动攻击，以及随之而来的原油价格急涨影 响，投资者的风险规避情绪明显增强。 日经QUICK新闻 版权声明：日本经济新闻社版权所有，未经授权不得转载或部分复制，违者必究。 日经中文网 https://cn.nikkei.com 视频号推荐内容： 在日本时间3月2日的早盘交易中，纽约原油期货价格大幅上涨。在美国纽约商业交易所（NYMEX）， 美国指标原油WTI（西得克萨斯中质原油）近月4月合约于8点过后一度升至每桶75.33美元，较2月27日 的结算价上涨8.31美元，涨幅达12.4%。这是近月合约自2025年6月的9个月来再度创下75美元区间的高 位。 2月28日，以色列和美国对伊朗境内多地发动攻击。伊朗国营媒体3月1日报道称，最高领袖哈梅内伊已 死亡。随着中东局势紧张加剧，市场对原油供应可能中断的警惕情绪升温，推动原油期货价格上行。 2025年6月 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [9] - Silver: Neutral [9] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio on rallies [10] - Options: On hold [10] 2. Core View of the Report - Due to the turmoil in the US stock market, market risk sentiment has emerged, and the demand for gold investment may slightly weaken. The gold price is expected to be in a volatile pattern in the near term, but the bullish logic remains unchanged, maintaining a cautiously bullish view. The Au2604 contract may fluctuate between 1050 yuan/gram and 1200 yuan/gram. Silver prices are also expected to maintain a volatile pattern, with the Ag2604 contract oscillating between 18500 yuan/kilogram and 21500 yuan/kilogram [9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - Geopolitically, US President Trump is expected to visit China in early April, and President Xi Jinping will meet with him. The Sino-US trade "truce" is expected to be extended. In the stock market, concerns about AI eroding corporate profits led to a sharp decline in the US stock market, causing a broad sell - off in risk assets. Technology stocks led the decline, with the Nasdaq down more than 2%, and the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index down 3%. Gold and silver also suffered heavy losses under risk - aversion sentiment, with spot gold down more than 4% and spot silver down more than 11% at one point [2] Futures Quotes and Trading Volumes - On February 12, 2026, the Shanghai gold main contract opened at 1133.80 yuan/gram and closed at 1126.12 yuan/gram, a change of - 0.38% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41087 lots, and the open interest was 129725 lots. In the night session, it opened at 1123.94 yuan/gram and closed at 1100.96 yuan/gram, a 2.23% decline from the afternoon close. The Shanghai silver main contract opened at 21718.00 yuan/kilogram and closed at 20626.00 yuan/kilogram, a - 1.52% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 509006 lots, and the open interest was 198505 lots. In the night session, it opened at 20400 yuan/kilogram and closed at 19188 yuan/kilogram, a 6.97% decline from the afternoon close [3] US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On February 12, 2026, the US 10 - year Treasury yield closed at 4.096%, down 7.42 basis points from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10 - year and 2 - year Treasuries was 0.65%, up 1.81 basis points from the previous trading day [4] Changes in Positions and Trading Volumes of Gold and Silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange - On the Au2604 contract, the long positions decreased by 4046 lots and the short positions decreased by 2712 lots compared to the previous day. The total trading volume of the Shanghai gold contract on the previous trading day was 324449 lots, a 14.97% change from the previous trading day. On the Ag2604 contract, the long positions decreased by 9695 lots and the short positions decreased by 8203 lots. The total trading volume of the silver contract on the previous trading day was 1109141 lots, a 2.31% change from the previous trading day [5] Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 1081.32 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 16236 tons, an increase of 20 tons from the previous trading day [6] Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On February 12, 2026, the domestic gold premium was - 3.89 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was - 138.31 yuan/kilogram. The ratio of the main gold and silver contract prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was about 54.60, a 1.16% change from the previous trading day, and the foreign - market gold - silver ratio was 58.89, a - 4.01% change from the previous trading day [7] Fundamentals - On February 12, 2026, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T + d market was 24712 kilograms, a - 14.71% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 220352 kilograms, a - 5.23% change from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11872 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 30 kilograms [8]

Group 1 - US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds experienced significant withdrawals on Wednesday due to declining cryptocurrency prices [1] - Broader risk-off sentiment is negatively impacting investor confidence in the cryptocurrency market [1]

Core Insights - Bitcoin continues to face pressure, recently hitting a seven-month low, reflecting a combination of factors including broader risk aversion and skepticism regarding potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in December [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The recent sell-off in Bitcoin is attributed to multiple factors such as regulatory stagnation, outflows of institutional funds, reduced liquidity, and profit-taking by long-term holders [1] - Bitcoin experienced a decline of 1.2%, reaching a price of $86,991, with a low of $80,553 recorded on Friday [1] Group 2: Analyst Perspectives - Analysts from Deutsche Bank suggest that while volatility remains an inherent characteristic of Bitcoin, the current situation raises questions about whether this is a temporary pullback or a more sustained adjustment [1]

Group 1 - Bitcoin (BTC) has been trading within a narrow range of 2.3% since a sharp decline from $112,500, with a lack of momentum attributed to the U.S. Labor Day holiday and regulatory market closures [2] - The confidence in the $108,000 support level for Bitcoin is diminishing, as indicated by the derivatives market, with a potential liquidation risk of $390 million in leveraged long positions if the price drops below $107,000 [4][9] - The annualized premium for Bitcoin's monthly futures is currently at 7%, remaining stable within a neutral range of 5% to 10%, with previous bullish signals noted on August 24 [5] Group 2 - A significant Bitcoin whale has transferred $4 billion worth of Bitcoin to Ethereum (ETH), highlighting a "rotation" phenomenon as altcoins appear to benefit from the accumulation by enterprises [5] - The Deribit skew indicator shows a 7% premium for put options compared to call options, indicating a bearish sentiment among whales and market makers regarding the $108,000 support level [7] - A net outflow of $127 million from U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) signals unease among holders, reflecting broader macroeconomic uncertainties or Bitcoin-specific weaknesses [7]