数据来源：Wind截至：2025.12.31（按中信三级行业分布） 在投资者认知中，铜与黄金在宏观经济逻辑中呈现显著的负相关性互补。铜作为"宏观经济晴雨表"，其价格与全球制造业PMI、AI算力基建投资高度正相 关：当经济扩张、AI数据中心建设加速时，铜因导电性刚需（单座超大规模AI数据中心耗铜量高达5万吨）而展现强弹性。而黄金则是典型的避险资产，在 地缘政治冲突、金融市场动荡或美联储降息周期中凸显配置价值。 然而AI基建与货币政策的双击逻辑，让这两类资产同时焕发生机 一方面，AI数据中心、电网升级、新能源转型构成铜需求的"三重引擎"：据标普全球预测，2025-2040年AI数据中心将新增200万吨铜需求，铜价中枢持续上 移。另一方面，美联储2025年进入降息周期，实际利率下行将推升黄金的金融属性。 细分有色指数恰好卡位这一"铜金双击"窗口：铜仓位捕捉AI基建的工业金属红利，黄金仓位博弈降息周期的贵金属溢价。相比之下，纯工业有色指数（黄 金含量仅2.9%）在利率下行阶段缺乏对冲工具，而有色矿业指数（黄金约15%）虽含金但缺少铜铝的AI叙事。反观细分有色指数通过铜金配比，实现了"科 技成长+宏观防御"的混合策略。 ...

Core Insights - The artificial intelligence (AI) industry is rapidly reshaping the global demand for non-ferrous metals, with copper being the primary beneficiary as it is deemed the "oil of the electrification era" [1] - Significant increases in copper demand are projected, with estimates suggesting an additional 2 million tons of copper will be required for AI data centers and related power infrastructure from 2025 to 2040 [1] - Morgan Stanley forecasts that global copper demand from AI data centers will surge from 200,000 to 500,000 tons annually by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 26% [1] Copper Demand Projections - The global copper consumption for data centers is expected to grow from approximately 50,000 tons per year to 300,000 tons by 2050, increasing its share of global copper consumption from 1% to 7% [1] - Data center electricity consumption is projected to rise from 460 TWh in 2022 to 860 TWh by 2027, indicating a growing need for copper [2] - The total copper usage in data centers is forecasted to increase from 343.2 thousand tons in 2022 to 791.1 thousand tons by 2027, with a year-on-year growth rate of 17.3% [2] Broader Metal Demand - In addition to copper, aluminum is also in high demand for cooling systems and server racks in data centers, with a single large-scale AI data center potentially consuming up to 20,000 tons of steel and significant amounts of aluminum [3] - The AI sector is expected to drive an additional demand of 850,000 tons for aluminum by 2026, with global primary aluminum demand projected to increase by 2.7% [3] - The supply-demand balance for electrolytic aluminum is expected to remain tight in 2026, with a growing gap anticipated post-2027 as demand from AI and renewable energy sectors continues to rise [3] ETF and Investment Opportunities - The Huatai-PineBridge Non-ferrous Metals ETF (159652) covers a comprehensive index that includes copper, aluminum, lithium, and rare earths, positioning it to benefit from the non-ferrous "super cycle" [5] - The ETF's structure emphasizes a significant allocation to copper and aluminum, with copper accounting for 34% of the index, providing strong exposure to industrial metal bull markets [5][7] - The ETF has demonstrated a remarkable return of 171.24% over the past two years, outperforming major indices, indicating a favorable risk-reward profile for investors [8]