95岁的巴菲特在（2025年12月31日）正式交出了权杖，留下了一个3810亿美元的"现金怪物"和一位被误读的"接班人"。 很多人在缅怀"股神"的浪漫，却忽视了阿贝尔手里那把磨得锃亮的"工业镰刀"。 这恐将不再是那个喝可乐的伯克希尔，而是一台冰冷、高效、甚至嗜血的"资源收割机"。 01 基因突变 今天这事一句话： 伯克希尔不是变天了，是基因突变了。 你要记住一个数字：3810亿。 这是巴菲特留给阿贝尔的"弹药"，美金。 更恐怖的是，这个数字已经超过了伯克希尔持有的股票总市值（2830亿美元）。 伯克希尔从"买品牌"到"控资源" → 从"美国国运"到"全球套利" → 从"赚认知的钱"到"赚生存的钱"。 在这个新时代，你要是还抱着"学股神炒股"的老黄历，不仅喝不到汤，连碗都得被砸了。 02 顶级猎手伪装 江湖上都在传，63岁的阿贝尔是个温和的加拿大人，是个听话的执行者。 2000 年加入伯克希尔能源板块，2018 年起统管非保险业务，2021 年被明确为唯一继任者. 巴菲特评价其"精力水平 10 小时完成量显著高于我"，并公开称"公司越早交给他越好" 能被巴菲特这种阅人无数的老狐狸选中的人，怎么可能是只小白兔？ ...

周三，在宏观经济信号、政策预期以及全球市场供应面不确定性加剧的综合支撑下，黄金和白银在欧洲交易中延续了势头。 【华通白银网12月25日】•美国GDP 4.3%的强劲增长缓和了上行空间，但消费者信心疲软令风险情绪保持谨慎。 •市场已消化对2026年美联储多次降息的预期，从而降低了收益率前景，进而强化了黄金和白银的看涨基础。 •供应方面的不确定性和贸易中断加剧了假日交易清淡期间黄金和白银的防御性资金流入。 市场概述 这种支撑被美国经济数据的弹性部分抵消。美国经济分析局报告称，美国经济第三季度的年化增长率为4.3%，远高于普遍预期。强劲的 经济增长通常会支撑美元，这可能会限制贵金属的上涨势头。 与此同时，消费者信心数据走软，世界大型企业联合会12月消费者信心指数下滑至89.1，表明美国家庭存在潜在的谨慎情绪。 随着年末流动性趋于稀薄，投资者重新展现出将贵金属作为投资组合对冲工具的偏好，而非短期交易。 供应风险和市场谨慎提振贵金属 贵金属持续受益于因全球贸易中断和能源相关供应问题而抬升的风险意识。近期关键生产地区影响航运和大宗商品流动的立法举措，为 全球市场增添了一层不确定性，促使投资者转向配置黄金、白银等传统上被视 ...

我们在财富一线看到的配置情况，确实如此： 看规模： 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：寻瑕记 蓓姐在最新的文章里，直指当前高净值群体资产配置的现实，有四大核心重仓： 1，量化增强。本质上是配置了不少小盘股，风险点一个是在size因子，另一个是非线性因子。 2，科创基金。风险点一个是国内利率回升引发风格转换，一个是美国AI资本开支预期下修导致AI泡沫 破灭。 3，全天候策略。风险点一个是利率回升引发底座债券持仓亏损，另一个是黄金下跌。 4，海外资产。风险点是一个是人民币汇率，一个是美国AI。 ①两融：去年924以来，融资余额合计净增1.1万亿，远超同期主动权益的规模增量，融资盘最大的配置 方向，是龙头科技为首的TMT板块； ②私募：2024年底，私募基金的总规模是5.21万亿，今年10月底增长到了7.01万亿，增加了1.8万亿，保 守估计1.5万亿都是量化私募； ③ETF：2025年，ETF总规模从年初的约3.73万亿激增至5.74万亿，年内规模增长超2万亿，增速超过 53%，增量最大的四个方向是，科创债、恒生科技、黄金ETF和沪深300ETF。 其中，近期被大家热 ...

2025 年 12 月 16 日 ， 2026 年宏观对冲策略年度行情展望 ---2026 年宏观对冲策略年报 报告导读： 货 研 究 所 我们的观点：2025 年下半年内外政策不确定性情况有所改善。随着全球流动性改善与国内经济企稳，股债商之间的分散化 效果自年中以来明显恢复，资产配置的有效性抬升。海外政策路径逐步明朗，美联储进入降息周期、主要经济体财政扩张发 力，带动全球经济呈现温和复苏迹象并支撑新兴市场需求。在经济和流动性双端改善的背景下，市场风险偏好回升、资产共 振风险下降，宏观对冲策略所处的外部环境较年初显著改善，也在下半年实现盈利。 我们的逻辑：今年宏观对冲管理人整体较为分化。上半年由于宏观波动率较大以及全球宏观不确定因素，风险平价指数的回 撤与波动都大于资产轮动，清明行情中风险平价策略因其净多头的属性，相较资产轮动策略回撤较大，而部分资产轮动类管 理人能实现部分盈利。但在下半年的行情中，由于风险平价类的管理人被动持有资产的特质，因此在权益的牛市和避险情绪 集中释放带来的黄金新高中收益明显，实现较大的收益增幅，表现比资产轮动类管理人更为强劲。 投资展望：2026 年宏观对冲策略的配置性价比提升，风险 ...

Group 1 - The core concept of "hedging" is to use opposite or alternative assets to offset risk exposure in investments [10][16]. - Hedging can be achieved through two main methods: utilizing negative correlation for asset allocation and employing positive correlation for long-short strategies [18][23]. - The difference between hedging and diversification lies in their approach to risk reduction; hedging targets specific risks while diversification spreads investments across less correlated assets [33][40]. Group 2 - "Macro" in investment refers to a broad analysis of economic indicators such as growth, interest rates, inflation, and geopolitical factors [43][46]. - Macro hedging combines macro analysis to predict future economic environments and determines asset allocation to mitigate specific risks while aiming for absolute returns [50][59]. - Current macro hedging products often incorporate both hedging and diversification strategies due to the complexity of cross-market and cross-asset portfolios [52].

Core Viewpoint - Hedge funds are betting that the Japanese yen will fall to 160 against the US dollar by the end of the year, driven by the divergence in monetary policy between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan [1] Group 1: Market Activity - There has been a surge in call option trading betting on the strength of the US dollar against the yen, with the nominal value of call options exceeding $150 million, reaching six times that of put options [1] - Sagar Sambrani, a senior forex options trader at Nomura International, noted that the policy differences between the Fed and the BoJ are leading macro hedge funds to expect a "stair-step rise" in the USD/JPY pair, predicting it will reach 157 in one month and 158-160 by year-end [1] Group 2: Institutional Insights - Asset management company Amundi stated that if the USD/JPY exchange rate breaks above 155, the volatility range could extend up to 160 [1] - Thomas Bureau, global head of forex options trading at Societe Generale, observed an increase in demand for cheap USD/JPY options with knockout clauses, indicating a preference for tactical short-term hedging tools [1]

Core Insights - The article highlights the investment philosophy and strategies of Li Bei, founder of Banxia Investment, emphasizing her macro-hedging approach and ability to navigate market cycles with a focus on maintaining a clear investment framework and understanding one's capability circle [1][3][4] Group 1: Investment Performance - As of August 31, the CSI 300 index had a return of approximately 14%, while Banxia's low-volatility funds outperformed this index, achieving higher returns with lower volatility [3][4] - Despite initial misjudgments regarding macroeconomic conditions and market styles, all product lines at Banxia significantly outperformed the CSI 300 index [4][6] Group 2: Investment Strategy - Li Bei emphasizes the importance of staying within one's capability circle, suggesting that expanding this circle takes time and should not be rushed through team expansion [5][6] - The strategy involves using mid-cap stock index futures (IC) to participate in technology growth markets safely, leveraging the benefits of liquidity and lower volatility [7][8] Group 3: Market Outlook - The article discusses the current bullish trend in the stock market, indicating that the upward trend is still in its early stages, driven by a favorable stock-bond yield spread and improving liquidity conditions [17][20] - The anticipated shift in market dynamics is expected to occur when housing prices stabilize and consumer price indices (CPI) show consistent growth, marking the transition to a second phase of the bull market [25][26] Group 4: Real Estate Sector - The real estate sector is viewed as having a once-in-a-decade opportunity, driven by a significant reduction in competition and improved profit margins for surviving companies [27][28] - The demand for quality housing is expected to rise, with new developments showing improved profitability compared to older projects [29][30] Group 5: Communication with Investors - Effective communication with investors is crucial, focusing on honesty and setting realistic expectations to manage their perceptions during performance fluctuations [11][12] - The approach involves allowing investors to make their own decisions while providing a stable framework for understanding potential risks and rewards [11][12] Group 6: Company Strategy - Banxia Investment aims to maintain its focus on macro-hedging strategies rather than diversifying into other areas, believing that this specialization will yield better long-term results [41][43]

Core Viewpoint - Gold should be viewed as a strategic asset for macro hedging, currency hedging, and obtaining stable long-term returns, rather than a tactical tool for short-term gains [4] Group 1: Long-term Returns - Over the past 20 years, gold has achieved an annualized return exceeding 10% when calculated in RMB, outperforming most mainstream assets over 10 and 5-year periods [8] - The long-term performance of gold is primarily driven by global GDP growth and physical gold demand, including central bank purchases, financial investments, and technological uses [8] Group 2: Currency Hedging - Gold is a globally priced asset that does not rely on any country's or institution's credit backing, making it a hedge against all fiat currencies in the context of global monetary expansion [12] Group 3: Systemic Risk Mitigation - Historical data shows that during market corrections in traditional stock-bond portfolios, gold tends to perform well, providing investors with a buffer against systemic risks [16]

Group A - Gold has emerged as one of the best-performing assets in recent years, with a 28% increase in 2024 and over 25% since 2025, leading financial institutions to launch "Gold+" multi-asset strategy products [1] - The "Gold+" strategy is increasingly recognized by asset management institutions and favored by individual investors, indicating a shift in gold's role from a tactical tool for asset allocation to a strategic core holding [1] Group B - Gold should be viewed as a strategic core holding for macro hedging, currency hedging, and achieving stable long-term returns, rather than a tactical tool for short-term gains [1] - The current macro environment and external shocks significantly impact the overall performance of RMB assets (equities, fixed income) beyond the variables of individual assets [1] Group C - Over the past 20 years, gold has provided an annualized return of over 10% when calculated in RMB, outperforming most mainstream assets over 10-year and 5-year periods [3] - The long-term returns of gold are primarily driven by global GDP growth and physical gold demand, including central bank purchases, financial investments, gold bars and coins, jewelry, and technological uses [3] Group D - Gold serves as a global pricing asset that does not rely on any country's or institution's credit backing, making it a hedge against currency fluctuations [6] - In the context of global monetary expansion, gold can act as a hedge against all credit currencies [6] Group E - Historical data shows that when traditional stock-bond portfolios (50% stocks, 50% bonds) experience a downturn due to systemic risks, gold tends to perform well, providing investors with a buffer against risk [9] - Gold's demand is diverse and driven by global factors, resulting in low correlation with domestic assets, effectively reducing the impact of systemic risks on traditional stock-bond portfolios [9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that gold is transitioning from a "tactical tool" for short-term gains to a "strategic core" for long-term investment, as evidenced by its significant price increase of 28% in 2024 and over 25% since 2025 [1][2] - The current macroeconomic environment and external shocks, such as tariffs and geopolitical conflicts, have a greater impact on RMB assets than on individual asset variables, indicating a need for a strategic approach to asset allocation [2] - Gold has provided a long-term annualized return of over 10% over the past 20 years, outperforming most mainstream assets in 10-year and 5-year dimensions, driven by global GDP growth and diverse demand sources [6][8] Group 2 - Gold serves as a hedge against currency fluctuations, being a globally priced asset that does not rely on any country's credit, making it a valuable tool in the context of global currency overproduction [10] - Historical data shows that gold performs well during market corrections in traditional stock-bond portfolios, providing a buffer against systemic risks due to its low correlation with domestic assets [11][12]