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华源证券:华源晨会精粹-20250307
Hua Yuan Zheng Quan· 2025-03-06 18:25
Fixed Income - The forecast for February 2025 predicts new loans of 1 trillion yuan and social financing of 2.5 trillion yuan, with M2 reaching 320.6 trillion yuan and a year-on-year growth of 7.0% [2][10] - The social financing growth rate is expected to be 8.3%, with a potential recovery in the growth rate later in the year [11][12] - The report anticipates a stable economic outlook for 2025, with a possible small rebound in 2026, and predicts the 10Y/30Y government bond yields to peak at 1.9%/2.2% in 2025 [13] Pharmaceutical Industry - Kelun Pharmaceutical (002422.SZ) - Kelun Pharmaceutical is recognized as a successful representative of the transition from generic to innovative drugs, with a cumulative R&D investment of nearly 11.9 billion yuan from 2014 to 2023 [14][15] - The company has entered the global market for innovative drugs, with significant potential for future growth, particularly through its ADC research platform and partnerships with major pharmaceutical companies [16] - The antibiotic intermediate sector is expected to maintain a stable supply-demand balance, while the intravenous infusion market is projected to grow steadily due to aging demographics [17][18] Public Utilities - China Resources Gas (01193.HK) - China Resources Gas is positioned as a leading city gas provider, focusing on projects in first- and second-tier cities, benefiting from its strategic location [21][22] - The company has reduced its reliance on connection services, with growth in comprehensive services and energy solutions supporting its profitability [23] - The report highlights a significant increase in operating cash flow and a low debt ratio, indicating strong financial health and potential for dividend growth [24][25] New Energy - Mingyang Technology (837663.BJ) - Mingyang Technology is identified as a national-level specialized manufacturer in automotive seat components, with an expected net profit growth of 18.66% in 2024 [27][28] - The company is benefiting from the trend of electrification and intelligence in the automotive industry, with a projected increase in the value of seat components [29] - The report emphasizes the potential for growth in the assembly business, which is expected to become a significant revenue driver [30][31] New Consumption - Semir Apparel (002563.SZ) - Semir Apparel focuses on casual and children's clothing, with its brands ranking among the top in their respective markets [34][35] - The company is enhancing operational efficiency and product appeal through strategic partnerships and brand collaborations, leading to improved profit margins [35] - The report forecasts steady growth in net profit from 2024 to 2026, supported by a strong market position and multi-brand strategy [36] New Consumption - Bairun Co., Ltd. (002568.SZ) - Bairun Co., Ltd. is a leading player in the ready-to-drink (RTD) beverage market, with a market share exceeding 73% in 2023 [38][39] - The growth of the RTD market is driven by expanding consumer demographics and innovative product offerings [40] - The company is expected to maintain its market leadership and continue to grow its net profit from 2024 to 2026 [41]