食品饮料行业 超配（维持） 顺应趋势，开拓创新 预调酒行业深度报告 本报告的风险等级为中风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 深 度 研 究 行 业 研 究 2026 年 2 月 25 日 分析师：黄冬祎 SAC 执业证书编号： S0340523020001 电话：0769-22119410 邮箱： huangdongyi@dgzq.com.cn 食品饮料行业指数走势 资料来源：东莞证券研究所，同花顺 相关报告 投资要点： 证 | 1. 预调酒简介 | 4 | | --- | --- | | 1.1 预调酒口感丰富，酒精含量适中 | 4 | | 1.2 预调酒行业产业链 | 4 | | 2. 我国预调酒行业市场规模稳步增长，消费群体以年轻女性为主 | 5 | | 2.1 我国预调酒行业市场规模稳步增长 | 5 | | 2.2 预调酒市场集中在一二线城市，消费群体以年轻女性为主 | 6 | | 2.3 我国预调酒渠道结构以 KA 为主 | 8 | | 3. 我国预调酒市场呈寡头垄断竞争格局 | 8 | | 4. 我国预调酒 ...

Group 1: Market Performance - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumption ETF (159268) rose by 1.4%, reaching a new high, with net inflows of nearly 50 million yuan over the past five days [1] - The A-share leading consumption ETF (159928) experienced a flat trading day with a total transaction volume exceeding 570 million yuan [3] - Popular constituent stocks such as China Duty Free and Pop Mart saw significant gains, with increases of over 8% and 5% respectively [1][3] Group 2: Consumer Trends and Policies - As the Spring Festival approaches, the A-share consumer sector is becoming more active, with expectations for increased retail in gold, travel, and dining services [5] - A new policy for Hainan Free Trade Port allows residents to purchase imported goods tax-free, enhancing consumer sentiment [5] - The "2026 'Happy Shopping Spring' Special Activity Plan" aims to stimulate consumption across various sectors, including digital and green consumption [5] Group 3: Alcohol and Beverage Industry Insights - The price of Moutai has rebounded, with a recent increase from 1570 yuan to 1610 yuan, reflecting a 2.5% rise [6] - The white liquor sector is showing signs of weak recovery, with expectations for a gradual improvement in demand due to better economic forecasts [6][9] - The beer market is projected to face pressure in 2025, but a mild recovery is anticipated in 2026 due to the growth of non-traditional retail channels [6] Group 4: Food and Beverage Sector Developments - The National Standard for Pre-prepared Dishes is under review, which is expected to enhance the development of the pre-prepared food industry [7][10] - The dairy sector is expected to stabilize, with a potential rebound in milk prices as supply and demand reach a turning point [7] - The snack food segment is experiencing growth, driven by the expansion of discount snack stores and innovations in social e-commerce channels [6][7] Group 5: Livestock and Meat Products - The profitability of self-bred pigs has turned negative, with a 26.4% decline in profits from purchased piglets [8] - Prices for white feather chickens and egg-laying hens have shown slight week-on-week declines [8]

Summary of Baijiu Co. Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Baijiu Co. (百润股份) - **Industry**: Alcoholic Beverages, specifically focusing on pre-mixed cocktails and whiskey Key Points Financial Performance and Inventory Management - Baijiu Co. has effectively recovered historical receivables related to pre-mixed cocktails, which were close to 200 million yuan, and has successfully controlled channel inventory, reducing it from nearly three months to a healthier level of 1.3 to 1.5 months [2][4] - Despite a slight year-over-year revenue decline in Q4 2025, the revenue drop is narrowing quarter by quarter, indicating a potential stabilization in business performance [4] Product Strategy and Market Position - The company has not adjusted the ex-factory price of pre-mixed cocktails due to its high market share, making significant price reductions unlikely to boost sales [5] - New product "Qingxiang 12 degrees" was launched to cater to female consumers, complementing existing products and targeting a broader low-alcohol consumer base [6][19] - In 2025, new products "Qingxiang" and "Jelly Wine" accounted for approximately 10% of revenue in the second half, with a shipment volume share of about 8% [7] Marketing and Promotion - Baijiu Co. plans to continue investing in marketing for its flagship products "Qiangshuang" and "Weixun," with a focus on stabilizing sales trends and promoting new products launched in the second half of 2025 [8][17] - The company is enhancing market confidence and terminal penetration for its whiskey products through initiatives like the "One Plus En" event, which invites distributors and their terminal buyers to factory visits [3][14] Competitive Landscape - Low-alcohol beverages like "Jin Jiu" do not directly compete with pre-mixed cocktails due to different consumption methods, and the competition in the pre-mixed cocktail market remains limited [6] - The company maintains a leading position in the domestic "Yutiao" liquor market due to early learning and consumer education investments, despite the perceived low entry barriers [20] Future Outlook - Baijiu Co. aims for growth in the pre-mixed cocktail segment, expecting to return to a long-term compound growth trajectory amid a recovering economic cycle [13] - The whiskey business is in a ramp-up phase, with plans to accelerate distribution and expand terminal coverage [15][21] Stability in Other Segments - The flavor and fragrance business is experiencing stable growth due to consistent demand and high margins, positioning Baijiu Co. among the top two in the domestic sweet flavor market [22] Financing and Cash Flow - The company has a good cash flow situation, with self-funding capable of covering barrel and container needs, making future financing optional [24] Additional Insights - The company is observing normal downstream demand as of 2026, with data indicating stable conditions across various channels [23]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The food and beverage index declined by 2.1% from January 12 to January 16, ranking 22nd among 28 sectors, underperforming the CSI 300 by approximately 1.5 percentage points. Other food (+0.0%), other alcoholic beverages (-0.2%), and health products (-0.7%) performed relatively better [3][11] - Kweichow Moutai has announced a market-oriented operation plan for 2026, establishing a pyramid product structure to meet diverse consumer needs. The plan emphasizes a multi-dimensional operational model that integrates online and offline channels, enhancing consumer engagement and optimizing distribution [3][11] - The core of the reform focuses on optimizing channels and pricing mechanisms, aiming to create a collaborative ecosystem between direct and social channels, ensuring supply rhythm, and establishing a dynamic pricing system based on market demand [3][11] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The food and beverage sector underperformed the market, with a 2.1% decline, ranking 22nd out of 28 sectors. Other food, other alcoholic beverages, and health products showed relatively better performance [11][13] Upstream Data - Some upstream raw material prices have decreased. For instance, the price of whole milk powder fell by 10.4% year-on-year, while fresh milk prices dropped by 3.2% year-on-year [16][19] Alcohol Industry Data - Kweichow Moutai has adjusted the contract prices for several products, including a significant reduction for its premium offerings. The contract price for aged Moutai has been set at 3,409 yuan per bottle, down from 5,399 yuan [39] Company Recommendations - Recommended companies include Kweichow Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, Ximai Food, Weilong, and Ganyuan Food, with a focus on their growth potential and market strategies for 2026 [5][44]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Dongwu Securities indicates a continued decline in the holdings of active equity funds in the food and beverage sector, particularly in the liquor and consumer goods segments, with a notable decrease in the proportion of white liquor holdings [1] Group 1: Fund Holdings - The proportion of active equity funds in the food and beverage sector decreased from 8.16% in 24Q3 to 4.17% in 25Q3, reflecting a decline of 1.45 percentage points [1] - The white liquor holdings decreased by 0.77 percentage points to 3.21% in 25Q3 [1] - Other segments such as beer, dairy beverages, food processing, leisure foods, and seasoning products also saw slight declines in holdings, with changes of -0.22%, -0.25%, -0.06%, -0.15%, +0.01%, and -0.01% respectively [1] Group 2: Market Trends - The market is currently favoring sectors such as technology, manufacturing, new consumption, and finance, which are benefiting from the economic structural transformation [1] - The white liquor sector is in a phase of accelerated bottoming, with companies focusing on improving their financial statements and clearing channels to stabilize order and strengthen long-term development [1] - The growth expectations for consumer goods are relatively fulfilled in the short term, and the market is awaiting confirmation of growth rates during the peak season [1]

Group 1: Market Overview - The report highlights the recent performance of the Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index, showing a significant decline over the past year, with the Shanghai Composite down by 32% and the ChiNext down by 16% [1][2] Group 2: Industry Insights - The report discusses the strong performance of the power equipment and non-bank financial sectors, with power equipment showing a rise of 4.79% and non-bank financials increasing by 2.08% in the latest trading session [1] - Conversely, the banking sector experienced a decline of 1.98%, indicating a challenging environment for traditional financial institutions [2] Group 3: Investment Strategies - The report emphasizes a dual-driven strategy focusing on technology and PPI trading, suggesting that AI and self-controlled technology will lead the market, supported by stable dividends and sectors like gold and military [6] - The recommended industry sectors for November include social services, non-bank financials, and public utilities, indicating a diversified approach to investment [7] Group 4: Company-Specific Updates - Celestica reported a strong Q3 performance with revenues of $3.19 billion, a 28% year-over-year increase, and raised its full-year revenue guidance to $12.2 billion, reflecting confidence in the AI infrastructure market [20] - Tesla plans to launch its Optimus V3 robot by Q1 2026, with a production capacity of 1 million units per year, showcasing advancements in robotics and AI [29][30] - The report notes that the food and beverage sector, particularly companies like Hai Tian Wei Ye, has shown steady revenue growth of 2.5% and profit growth of 3.4% in Q3 2025, highlighting resilience in challenging market conditions [51]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Accumulate" for the company [7] Core Views - The company has returned to revenue growth in Q3 2025, with a revenue of 780 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 3% [1] - Despite the revenue growth, profit has been pressured due to increased investment in marketing and product launches, particularly in the new product lines and whiskey business [2][3] - The pre-mixed cocktail business is stabilizing, with new product contributions expected to enhance revenue [3] - The whiskey business is progressing steadily, with a focus on expanding distribution channels and partnerships [4] - Profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted downward due to weak consumer demand in the pre-mixed cocktail and whiskey segments, with projected net profits of 694 million, 768 million, and 873 million yuan respectively [5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 2.27 billion yuan, down 4.9% year-on-year, and a net profit of 550 million yuan, down 4.4% year-on-year [1] - The gross margin for the first three quarters was 70.28%, slightly up from the previous year, while the net profit margin decreased to 24.21% [2] Business Development - The company is enhancing its product matrix with new offerings in the pre-mixed cocktail segment, including the Jelly Wine series launched in June [3] - The whiskey business is being supported by a dedicated marketing team and has seen an increase in the number of distribution partners [4] Profitability and Valuation - The report projects earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 to be 0.66, 0.73, and 0.83 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 41x, 37x, and 33x [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6][4]. Core Views - The company has shown stable performance in its pre-mixed alcoholic beverages, with new products contributing to growth. The inventory levels are healthy, indicating a stable base [1][2]. - The whisky business is focused on long-term brand building, with steady distribution efforts ongoing. The company aims to develop a second growth curve through its whisky offerings [1][2][4]. - The overall financial performance remains stable, with a gross margin of 70.3% for the first three quarters of 2025, and a notable increase in cash flow from operations [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, total revenue was 2.27 billion, with a net profit of 550 million, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 4.9% and 4.4% respectively. In Q3 alone, total revenue was 780 million, with a net profit of 160 million, showing a year-on-year increase of 3.0% [1][2]. - The gross margin for Q1-Q3 2025 was 70.3%, with a slight increase from the previous year. The net profit margin for Q3 was 20.5%, down 2.1 percentage points year-on-year [3][4]. Product Performance - The company's pre-mixed alcoholic beverages, particularly the "微醺" (Mellow) product line, have shown strong growth, while new products like "轻享" (Light Enjoy) and "果冻酒" (Jelly Wine) have also contributed positively [2][4]. - The whisky segment is currently in a steady distribution phase, with a focus on the southern China market, and is expected to contribute to future growth [2][4]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates a recovery in the pre-mixed alcoholic beverage sector driven by consumer demand, while the whisky business is expected to gradually build momentum [4]. - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to 2.94 billion, 3.17 billion, and 3.49 billion respectively, reflecting a downward revision of 6% for each year [4].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [2] Core Insights - The report highlights structural growth opportunities in new products and channels within the consumer goods sector, particularly in the context of the 25Q3 performance forecast [2] - The performance of various sub-sectors is expected to vary, with specific companies showing significant growth potential due to category advantages and new channel expansions [10][12][14][15][16][19][21][22] Sub-sector Summaries 1.1 Snack Foods - The performance in 25Q3 is expected to be differentiated, with companies like Wanchen Group projected to achieve a revenue growth of 39% and a net profit growth of 382% [2][25] - Emphasis is placed on companies that can leverage category trends and new channel opportunities for sustained growth [10][11] 1.2 Soft Drinks - The energy drink segment is showing improved market conditions, with companies like Dongpeng Beverage expected to see a revenue growth of 31% and a net profit growth of 33% [2][25] - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong brand power and channel capabilities for long-term growth [12][13] 1.3 Dairy Products - The dairy sector is anticipated to experience flat demand in 25Q3, with companies like Yili expected to see only a 2% revenue growth [2][25] - The report indicates that profitability may improve once raw milk prices stabilize [14] 1.4 Tea Drinks - The market is characterized by a leading player, Mixue Group, which is expected to expand its competitive edge through enhanced product offerings [2][15] - The mid-price segment is highlighted as a key growth area, with recommendations for companies like Guming [15] 1.5 Health Supplements - The report notes a trend towards increased concentration in the B-end market, with companies like Xianle Health projected to achieve a revenue growth of 15% [2][25] - The C-end market is advised to focus on high-growth single products [16][17] 1.6 Ready-to-Drink Alcohol - The performance in 25Q3 is expected to be strong, with companies like Bairun expected to see an 8% revenue growth [2][25] - New product launches are anticipated to drive sales growth [18] 1.7 Beer - The impact of the "drinking ban" is expected to be limited, with Qingdao Beer projected to achieve a 2% revenue growth and an 8% net profit growth [2][25] - The report suggests that the beer sector will see stable growth driven by structural upgrades and cost improvements [19][20] 1.8 Condiments - Leading companies like Haitian Flavoring are expected to maintain stable performance, with a revenue growth of 7% [2][25] - The report emphasizes the importance of robust market strategies during periods of flat demand [21] 1.9 Frozen Foods - The sector is facing weak demand, with companies like Anjixin expected to see a 6% revenue growth [2][25] - The report advises monitoring the recovery of the restaurant supply chain for potential investment opportunities [22][23] 1.10 Marinated Products - The focus is on improving store operations as the sector continues to recover from previous challenges [24] Key Company Tracking - The report provides a detailed forecast for various companies across different segments, highlighting expected revenue and net profit growth rates for 25Q3 [25]

Summary of Baijiu Co. Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Baijiu Co. (百润股份) - **Market Capitalization**: Approximately 25 billion RMB, considered relatively reasonable for investment [9] Industry Insights - **Whiskey Market Potential**: The domestic whiskey market is in its early stages, with an estimated size of 5 to 6 billion RMB, compared to 600 billion RMB for baijiu and 300 billion RMB for beer [15] - **Production Capacity**: Planned production capacity for domestic whiskey is around 250,000 kiloliters, corresponding to a market space of approximately 17 billion RMB [23] - **Market Growth**: If consumer habits for whiskey in dining settings are successfully cultivated, the market capacity could reach between 10 billion to 18 billion RMB [23] Key Business Developments - **Whiskey Project Investment**: Baijiu Co. has invested about 4 billion RMB in its whiskey project, holding 80% of the domestic whiskey industry's oak barrel reserves [2][5] - **Product Launches**: The company has introduced new products such as "Drunken Jelly Wine" and a 12-degree light fragrance whiskey, with expectations for good performance in 2026 [2][4] - **Marketing Strategies**: The company is actively promoting its whiskey products through exhibitions, tasting events, and collaborations with restaurants to create a whiskey dining atmosphere [10] Financial Performance - **2025 Outlook**: The overall performance for 2025 is expected to be stable, with potential growth in the second half of the year as the pre-mixed liquor business is anticipated to recover [4][24] - **Sales Trends**: The main product line has shown resilience, with orders stabilizing after a decline in the first half of the year [4] Technical and Talent Development - **Technical Capabilities**: The company possesses advanced distillation technology, including pot stills and column stills, and has trained several distillers in Scotland, enhancing its soft power in the whiskey sector [5][7] - **Product Diversity**: Baijiu Co. has developed various whiskey styles and barrel types, including unique Chinese characteristics, to cater to diverse consumer preferences [8] Market Positioning - **Consumer Demographics**: The target demographic for whiskey consumers aligns closely with that of pre-mixed liquor, primarily young individuals, facilitating cross-promotion [14] - **Future Growth Potential**: The company is well-positioned for future growth, with expectations for significant market expansion starting in 2026 [24] Conclusion - **Investment Timing**: Current market conditions present a favorable opportunity for investment in Baijiu Co., with anticipated growth driven by new product launches and a recovering market [9][24]