后市来看，宁证期货表示，南美局势进一步升级。在此背景下，委内瑞拉原油对亚洲发货量近期出现大 幅下滑，非美地区的买家面临风险骤增。但沥青现实基本面依然相对疲软，缺乏主动性。市场潜在的上 行驱动来自于原料端，如果未来委油供应持续性收紧，导致沥青炼厂成本中枢抬升，则沥青现货与盘面 存在进一步的反弹空间。 现货市场，据银河期货介绍，1月4日山东沥青现货稳价2950元/吨，华东地区稳价3090元/吨，华南地区 涨40至2940元/吨。 基本面方面，东海期货分析称，供需两弱格局将持续，需求方面冬储目前情况仍未有超预期利好，交投 水平仍然一般，上下游库存转移中，社库小幅累积，对厂库形成去化，但总库存去化幅度有限。供应方 面炼厂开工保持平稳，部分装置检修，整体过剩压力略有减少。 1月5日，国内期市能化板块涨跌互现。其中，沥青期货盘中高位震荡运行，截至发稿主力合约报 3128.00元/吨，大幅上涨3.78%。 成本方面，国投安信期货指出，委内瑞拉原油供应中断之后，可能会对我国炼厂生产沥青造成较大影 响，即使找到合适进口替代国，但是成本方面可能将有所提高，该事件对于沥青价格影响偏多。 ...

Core Viewpoints - The asphalt futures market is experiencing weak fluctuations, with the main contract dropping nearly 1% to 3254.00 yuan, reflecting a decline of 0.97% [1] - Various institutions predict a predominantly weak and fluctuating trend for asphalt in the short term [2][3] Group 1: Market Analysis - Hengyin Futures notes that the short-term trend of asphalt lacks clear directional drivers, with a reduction in cost pressure due to easing U.S. tariff policies and ongoing supply concerns from the Russia-Ukraine conflict [1] - The current market shows a balance between bullish and bearish forces, with limited guidance on price movements [1] - The demand side remains weak, with downstream enterprises showing cautious purchasing behavior, leading to limited trading activity [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Jianxin Futures highlights that while the supply side is increasing due to profit and raw material support, the demand side is under pressure from weak market sentiment and uncertainty in the crude oil market [2] - The asphalt market is expected to maintain high levels due to seasonal demand, but speculative demand is limited [2] - Guotai Junan Futures indicates that while there is some construction demand in the northern regions, the overall asphalt production increase may exert downward pressure on prices [3]