市场要闻与重要数据 现货方面：2025-08-20，LME铅现货升水为-41.80美元/吨。SMM1#铅锭现货价较前一交易日变化-75元/吨至16600 元/吨，SMM上海铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变化 -50元/吨至-15.00元/吨，SMM广东铅现货较前一交易日变化-75 元/吨至16675元/吨，SMM河南铅现货较前一交易日变化-100元/吨至16575元/吨，SMM天津铅现货升贴水较前一交 易日变化-50元/吨至16650元/吨。铅精废价差较前一交易日变化0元/吨至25元/吨，废电动车电池较前一交易日变化 -50元/吨至10125元/吨，废白壳较前一交易日变化-25元/吨至10125元/吨，废黑壳较前一交易日变化-25元/吨至10450 元/吨。 期货方面：2025-08-20，沪铅主力合约开于16825元/吨，收于16725元/吨，较前一交易日变化-100元/吨，全天交易 日成交38671手，较前一交易日变化11416手，全天交易日持仓46776手，手较前一交易日变化-1336手，日内价格震 荡，最高点达到16830元/吨，最低点达到16680元/吨。夜盘方面，沪铅主力合约开于16770元/吨，收于1 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-08-20 下游表现持续偏淡 铅价维持震荡格局 市场要闻与重要数据 现货方面：2025-08-19，LME铅现货升水为-44.00美元/吨。SMM1#铅锭现货价较前一交易日变化0元/吨至16675元/ 吨，SMM上海铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变化 0元/吨至-25.00元/吨，SMM广东铅现货较前一交易日变化0元/吨至 16750元/吨，SMM河南铅现货较前一交易日变化0元/吨至16675元/吨，SMM天津铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变化0 元/吨至16700元/吨。铅精废价差较前一交易日变化0元/吨至0元/吨，废电动车电池较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10175 元/吨，废白壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10150元/吨，废黑壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10475元/吨。 期货方面：2025-08-19，沪铅主力合约开于16790元/吨，收于16825元/吨，较前一交易日变化50元/吨，全天交易日 成交27255手，较前一交易日变化-3340手，全天交易日持仓48112手，手较前一交易日变化-1384手，日内价格震荡， 最高点达到16865元/吨，最低点达到16765元/吨。夜盘方面 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is neutral [4] Core Viewpoint - The lead market is currently in a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the lead price is expected to maintain a volatile range between 16,300 yuan/ton and 17,150 yuan/ton [4] Summary by Directory Market News and Key Data Spot Market - On August 11, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$31.29/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price remained unchanged at 16,725 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The lead prices in different regions showed varying changes, with the SMM Shanghai lead spot premium unchanged at -35.00 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead price unchanged at 16,800 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead price up 25 yuan/ton to 16,750 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium up 50 yuan/ton to 16,775 yuan/ton. The lead refined-waste price difference remained unchanged at 25 yuan/ton, and the prices of waste electric vehicle batteries, waste white shells, and waste black shells also remained unchanged [1] Futures Market - On August 11, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,850 yuan/ton and closed at 16,885 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 35,623 lots, up 4,615 lots from the previous trading day, and the open interest was 54,395 lots, down 4,728 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with a high of 16,950 yuan/ton and a low of 16,820 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,855 yuan/ton and closed at 16,890 yuan/ton, up 0.03% from the afternoon close [2] Inventory - On August 11, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 70,000 tons, down 110,000 tons from the same period last week. As of August 11, the LME lead inventory was 265,800 tons, down 2,575 tons from the previous trading day [3] Strategy - The recommended option strategy is to sell a wide straddle [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The asphalt market still maintains a pattern of weak supply and demand. With oil prices rebounding due to macro - and geopolitical support, a short - term long strategy should be adopted for asphalt, and profits should be taken in a timely manner [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: For BU2509, the opening price was 3630 yuan/ton, the closing price was 3650 yuan/ton, the highest was 3677 yuan/ton, the lowest was 3616 yuan/ton, the daily increase was 1.00%, and the trading volume was 191,500 lots. For BU2510, the opening price was 3606 yuan/ton, the closing price was 3636 yuan/ton, the highest was 3659 yuan/ton, the lowest was 3601 yuan/ton, the daily increase was 1.22%, and the trading volume was 100,100 lots [6]. - **Spot Market**: Asphalt spot prices in North China, Shandong, and Sichuan - Chongqing markets increased, while prices in other regions remained stable. The continuous rise in crude oil and asphalt futures prices had a positive impact on the asphalt spot market sentiment. In terms of supply, although some refineries in the Northeast had no short - term production increase plans, due to the high - load production of Jinling Petrochemical after resuming production on the 23rd and the possible resumption of production by Shandong Shengxing Petrochemical, the average operating load rate of asphalt plants was expected to rise. On the demand side, rainy weather affected most parts of the country, and the improvement in asphalt demand was limited [6]. 3.2 Industry News - **South China Market**: The mainstream transaction price of 70A grade asphalt was 3560 - 3590 yuan/ton, remaining stable. Market demand improved slightly, and social inventory quotes remained stable, waiting for major refineries to re - price [8]. - **East China Market**: The mainstream transaction price of 70A grade asphalt was 3660 - 3800 yuan/ton, remaining stable. Affected by typhoon weather, market demand declined slightly. Although the asphalt futures market rebounded, it was difficult to increase spot prices due to weak demand [8]. 3.3 Data Overview The report presents multiple figures related to the asphalt market, including Shandong asphalt spot prices, Shandong asphalt basis, asphalt daily operating rate, Shandong asphalt comprehensive profit, asphalt cracking, asphalt social inventory, asphalt manufacturer inventory, and asphalt warehouse receipts, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of Jianxin Futures [14][16][17].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints - As the Middle - East situation eases significantly, the previous oil premium due to geopolitical conflicts has quickly declined, driving down the futures of the energy sector including asphalt. The overall supply - demand weakness in the asphalt market continues, with inventory remaining low. After the sharp drop in oil prices, refinery production costs have improved, which may increase asphalt production capacity utilization. However, due to weather and capital factors, the rigid demand for asphalt lacks highlights, and the overall market has insufficient driving force [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalog Market Analysis - On June 25, the closing price of the main BU2509 asphalt futures contract in the afternoon session was 3,574 yuan/ton, a decrease of 69 yuan/ton or 1.89% from the previous day's settlement price. The open interest was 251,579 lots, a decrease of 17,999 lots from the previous day, and the trading volume was 282,213 lots, a decrease of 178,364 lots [1] - The spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt from Zhuochuang Information are as follows: Northeast, 3,920 - 4,086 yuan/ton; Shandong, 3,650 - 4,030 yuan/ton; South China, 3,600 - 3,750 yuan/ton; East China, 3,700 - 3,800 yuan/ton [1] Strategy - Unilateral: Sideways - Inter - period: None - Inter - commodity: None - Futures - cash: None - Options: None [2] Figures - There are multiple figures in the report, including those showing the spot prices of heavy - traffic asphalt in different regions (Shandong, East China, South China, North China, Southwest, and Northwest), the closing prices of asphalt futures indices, main contracts, and near - month contracts, the trading volume and open interest of asphalt futures, domestic weekly asphalt production, asphalt production in different regions (Shandong, East China, South China, North China), domestic asphalt consumption in different fields (road, waterproofing, coking, ship fuel), and asphalt refinery and social inventories [3]

Group 1 - The current spot market for zinc shows moderate performance, with 0 zinc priced at 22,150-22,250 CNY/ton, averaging 22,200 CNY/ton, an increase of 50 CNY/ton from the previous trading day [1] - The futures market closed with the main contract for zinc at 22,045 CNY/ton, reflecting a 0.57% increase, with a daily trading volume of 158,531 lots [2] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange reported a decrease in zinc warehouse receipts by 248 tons, totaling 7,471 tons [3] Group 2 - The analysis indicates that geopolitical tensions and potential changes in U.S. monetary policy are influencing market dynamics, with a focus on upcoming economic data [4] - Domestic zinc production is increasing, and there is a steady supply of imported ore, easing raw material supply pressures [4] - Despite low inventory levels, both supply and demand are weak, leading to limited price fluctuations and a range-bound market [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On June 5, the closing price of the main asphalt futures contract BU2507 in the afternoon session was 3,497 yuan/ton, down 0.4% from the previous settlement price. The open interest was 85,190 lots, a decrease of 4,256 lots compared to the previous day, and the trading volume was 133,237 lots, a decrease of 63,289 lots compared to the previous day [1]. - The spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt from Zhuochuang Information were: 3,800 - 4,091 yuan/ton in Northeast China; 3,470 - 3,870 yuan/ton in Shandong; 3,400 - 3,450 yuan/ton in South China; 3,580 - 3,650 yuan/ton in East China [1]. - Crude oil prices rebounded oscillatingly this week, consolidating the cost support for asphalt. Spot prices remained stable overall, with some major refineries in certain regions raising the asphalt settlement price, boosting the sentiment in the asphalt spot market. The futures market continued to fluctuate within a narrow range [1]. - The asphalt market maintained a pattern of weak supply and demand. Terminal demand was generally poor. In June, the temperature in northern regions was suitable for some infrastructure projects to start construction, but there was a lack of supra - seasonal growth momentum. In southern regions, the rainy season hindered road construction and restricted asphalt terminal consumption [1]. - Currently, the increase in market supply was limited. The overall operating rate and inventory were at low levels. With cost support, market pressure was limited, but the weak improvement in demand restricted the market's upward space [1]. Group 3: Strategies - Unilateral: Oscillation [2] - Inter - period: Go long on the spread of BU2507 - 2509 (positive spread) at low levels [2] - Inter - commodity: None [2] - Futures - cash: None [2] - Options: None [2] Group 4: Figures and Their Units - Figures showing the spot prices of heavy - traffic asphalt in different regions (Shandong, East China, South China, North China, Southwest China, Northwest China) are provided, with the unit of yuan/ton [3][10] - Figures showing the closing prices of the petroleum asphalt futures index, main contract, and near - month contract, as well as the near - month spread, are provided, with the unit of yuan/ton [3][18][21] - Figures showing the trading volume and open interest of petroleum asphalt futures (unilateral and main contract) are provided, with the unit of lots [3][23] - Figures showing the production volume of domestic asphalt (weekly, independent refineries, and in different regions like Shandong, East China, South China, North China) are provided, with the unit of 10,000 tons [3][29][31] - Figures showing the consumption of domestic asphalt in different fields (road, waterproofing, coking, ship fuel) are provided, with the unit of 10,000 tons [3][37][38] - Figures showing the inventory of asphalt refineries and social inventory (according to Longzhong data) are provided, with the unit of 10,000 tons [3][39]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Absolute price: Neutral [3] - Option strategy: Sell wide straddle [4] Core View - The current lead market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. The domestic ore supply is relatively tight, and smelters have low willingness to purchase high-silver ores. However, the energy storage battery sector performs outstandingly, with the operating rates of relevant enterprises generally reaching 80 - 100%. The industry is optimistic about the second half of the year, and some enterprises are preparing for capacity expansion. The lead price is currently treated with a volatile mindset, and the Pb2506 contract is expected to be in the range of 16,300 yuan/ton to 17,050 yuan/ton [3] Summary by Directory Spot Market - On May 22, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -26.12 dollars/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 16,625 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium decreased by 100 yuan/ton to -15.00 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead spot price decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 16,675 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot price decreased by 125 yuan/ton to 16,600 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 16,650 yuan/ton. The lead refined-scrap price difference remained unchanged at -50 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The prices of waste electric vehicle batteries, waste white shells, and waste black shells all decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 10,200 yuan/ton, 10,050 yuan/ton, and 10,400 yuan/ton respectively [1] Futures Market - On May 22, 2025, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 16,895 yuan/ton and closed at 16,685 yuan/ton, a decrease of 215 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 42,980 lots, an increase of 22,116 lots compared to the previous trading day. The position for the whole trading day was 45,301 lots, an increase of 28,537 lots compared to the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest point reaching 16,895 yuan/ton and the lowest point reaching 16,670 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 16,685 yuan/ton and closed at 16,695 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.51% compared to the afternoon closing price of the previous day [2] Inventory - On May 22, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 5.0 million tons, a decrease of 0.88 million tons compared to the same period last week. As of May 22, the LME lead inventory was 295,825 tons, an increase of 13,700 tons compared to the previous trading day [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Absolute price: Neutral [4] - Option strategy: Sell wide straddle [5] Core View - The current domestic lead ore supply is relatively tight, but smelters' willingness to purchase high-silver ore is also low. The market is in a pattern of weak supply and demand. However, due to the outstanding performance of the energy storage battery sector, supported by the demand from mobile base stations and data centers, the operating rates of related enterprises are generally 80 - 100%. The industry is optimistic about the second half of the year, and some enterprises are preparing for capacity expansion. The lead price is currently treated with a sideways trading mindset, with the Pb2507 contract ranging from 16,300 yuan/ton to 17,050 yuan/ton [4] Summary by Directory Spot Market - On May 21, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -24.07 dollars/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price increased by 75 yuan/ton to 16,725 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium/discount changed by -75 yuan/ton to 0.00 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead spot price increased by 100 yuan/ton to 16,775 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot price increased by 100 yuan/ton to 16,725 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium/discount changed by 50 yuan/ton to 16,750 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate scrap price difference remained unchanged at -50 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries decreased by 75 yuan/ton to 10,300 yuan/ton, the price of waste white shells decreased by 75 yuan/ton to 10,150 yuan/ton, and the price of waste black shells decreased by 75 yuan/ton to 10,500 yuan/ton [1] Futures Market - On May 21, 2025, the main Shanghai lead futures contract opened at 16,900 yuan/ton and closed at 16,900 yuan/ton, an increase of 55 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 20,864 lots, a decrease of 3,522 lots compared to the previous trading day, and the open interest was 16,764 lots, a decrease of 6,034 lots compared to the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, reaching a high of 16,935 yuan/ton and a low of 16,830 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main Shanghai lead futures contract opened at 16,895 yuan/ton and closed at 16,835 yuan/ton, a 0.33% decrease from the afternoon closing price of the previous day [2] Inventory - On May 21, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 59,000 tons, an increase of 3,000 tons compared to the same period last week. As of May 21, the LME lead inventory was 282,125 tons, an increase of 36,375 tons compared to the previous trading day [3] Market Transaction - According to SMM, the SMM1 lead price increased by 75 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. In Henan, suppliers quoted at a discount of 25 - 0 yuan/ton to SMM1 lead, or at a discount of 180 - 150 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2506 contract for ex-factory sales. In Hunan, smelters quoted at a discount of 30 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead average price. Some smelters mentioned factors such as raw material costs and were reluctant to sell at low prices. Traders quoted at a discount of 200 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2506 contract. In Anhui and Jiangxi, smelters quoted at a premium of 100 - 150 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead average price for ex-factory sales. In Guangdong, suppliers' ex-factory supplies were sold at a premium of 50 - 75 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead average price for rigid demand transactions. The lead price rebounded, and downstream enterprises still mainly purchased for rigid demand. Coupled with the decrease in the shipments of secondary lead smelters, the regional transactions in the spot market were acceptable [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Absolute price: Neutral [3] - Option strategy: Sell wide straddle [4] Core View - The domestic lead ore supply remains relatively tight, and smelters have low willingness to purchase high-silver ore. The market is currently in a situation of weak supply and demand. However, the energy storage battery sector is performing outstandingly, with the support of demand from mobile base stations and data centers. The operating rates of relevant enterprises generally reach 80 - 100%. The industry is optimistic about the second half of the year, and some enterprises are preparing for capacity expansion. The current lead price should be treated with a volatile mindset, and the Pb2506 contract range is between 16,300 yuan/ton and 17,050 yuan/ton [3] Market News and Important Data Spot - On May 20, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$18.06/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 75 yuan/ton to 16,650 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at 0 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong lead spot price decreased by 75 yuan/ton to 16,675 yuan/ton. The SMM Henan lead spot price decreased by 75 yuan/ton to 16,625 yuan/ton. The SMM Tianjin lead spot premium decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 16,700 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate scrap price difference remained unchanged at -50 yuan/ton. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries remained unchanged at 10,375 yuan/ton. The price of waste white shells remained unchanged at 10,225 yuan/ton. The price of waste black shells remained unchanged at 10,575 yuan/ton [1] - According to SMM, the SMM1 lead price decreased by 75 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. In Henan, holders quoted at a discount of 25 yuan/ton to SMM 1 lead or at a discount of 180 - 170 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2506 contract for ex-factory sales. In Hunan, smelters quoted at a discount of 30 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead average price for rigid demand transactions, and traders quoted at a discount of 200 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2506 contract. Smelters in Anhui and Jiangxi tried to hold prices for sales, quoting at a premium of 100 - 150 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead average price for ex-factory sales. In Guangdong, holders' ex-factory supplies were traded at a premium of 0 - 50 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead average price. As the lead price continued to weaken, apart from a small number of downstream enterprises making purchases at low prices, most enterprises still made purchases mainly for rigid demand. The spot market improved slightly compared to the previous day [2] Futures - On May 20, 2025, the SHFE lead main contract opened at 16,860 yuan/ton and closed at 16,845 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 24,386 lots, a decrease of 2,507 lots compared to the previous trading day. The position for the whole trading day was 22,798 lots, a decrease of 4,590 lots compared to the previous trading day. The price fluctuated during the day, reaching a maximum of 16,880 yuan/ton and a minimum of 16,740 yuan/ton. In the night session, the SHFE lead main contract opened at 16,920 yuan/ton and closed at 16,905 yuan/ton, a 0.48% increase compared to the afternoon closing price of the previous day [1] Inventory - On May 20, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 59,000 tons, a change of 3,000 tons compared to the same period last week. As of May 20, the LME lead inventory was 245,750 tons, a decrease of 600 tons compared to the previous trading day [2]