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新能源及有色金属日报:现货成交相对清淡,铅价上行相对乏力-20251029
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-10-29 03:27
Report Industry Investment Rating - Absolute price: Neutral [3] - Option strategy: On hold [4] Core View - The domestic lead ore supply is still relatively tight, and smelters have low willingness to purchase high-silver ores. The market is currently in a pattern of weak supply and demand. Since the National Day, downstream demand has been better than expected, leading to significant inventory reduction in China. However, with the overall adjustment of the non-ferrous sector, lead prices may temporarily enter a volatile pattern [3] Summary by Directory Market News and Important Data Spot - On October 28, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$33.80/ton. The SMM 1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 17,225 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at 30 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead spot price decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 17,300 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot price decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 17,300 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 17,350 yuan/ton. The lead refined-scrap price difference remained unchanged at -50 yuan/ton, and the prices of waste electric vehicle batteries, waste white shells, and waste black shells also remained unchanged [1] Futures - On October 28, 2025, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 17,520 yuan/ton, closed at 17,355 yuan/ton, down 165 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 57,175 lots, a decrease of 24,547 lots from the previous trading day, and the open interest was 77,635 lots, a decrease of 6,760 lots. The intraday price fluctuated, with a high of 17,540 yuan/ton and a low of 17,340 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 17,315 yuan/ton and closed at 17,370 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton from the afternoon close [2] Inventory - On October 28, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 30,000 tons, a decrease of 1,600 tons from the same period last week. As of November 28, the LME lead inventory was 229,675 tons, a decrease of 3,000 tons from the previous trading day [2] Strategy - The absolute price strategy is neutral, and the option strategy is to wait and see [3][4]
建信期货沥青日报-20250911
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-09-11 01:34
Report Information - Report Title: Asphalt Daily Report [1] - Report Date: September 11, 2025 [2] Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View - The asphalt market remains in a situation of weak supply and demand, and its price continues to fluctuate with oil prices, but the fluctuation range is expected to be lower than that of oil prices. It is recommended to wait and see for now [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: The BU2511 contract opened at 3,424 yuan/ton, closed at 3,450 yuan/ton, with a high of 3,457 yuan/ton, a low of 3,421 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 0.88%, and a trading volume of 15.04 million lots. The BU2512 contract opened at 3,372 yuan/ton, closed at 3,399 yuan/ton, with a high of 3,410 yuan/ton, a low of 3,372 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 0.74%, and a trading volume of 2.34 million lots [6]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices of asphalt in North China and Shandong markets increased, while those in other regions remained generally stable. Some brands had good sales, which was beneficial to the spot price of asphalt [6]. - **Supply Side**: Jiangsu Xinhai will switch production to residual oil again, but Qilu Petrochemical has switched to asphalt production since the 6th. Ningbo Keyuan and Qicheng Petrochemical will maintain stable production after resuming asphalt production. It is expected that the operating rate of asphalt plants will continue to rise [6]. - **Demand Side**: Road projects in North China and surrounding areas will start one after another, resulting in a slight increase in asphalt demand. However, the precipitation in the southern region is more than the same period of the previous year, and the rigid demand remains stable [6]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Temporarily wait and see [6]. 2. Industry News - **East China Market**: The mainstream transaction price of 70 A-grade asphalt was 3,560 - 3,700 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared with the previous working day. Due to the low shipping price of refineries, the shipping volume of social warehouses in East China decreased significantly year-on-year, and the increase in trucking shipments was limited. The destocking speed of social warehouses was slow, and the price continued to be under pressure. The operating load of refineries in East China was generally high, the supply was abundant, and the mainstream trucking price range was temporarily stable [7]. - **South China Market**: The mainstream transaction price of 70 A-grade asphalt was 3,490 - 3,540 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared with the previous working day. After the contract price of Dongyou was raised, it was executed at 3,510 yuan/ton, still within the price range of the South China market. The rigid demand in the South China region weakened periodically, but the market still had positive expectations for the peak-season demand, and the quotes of social warehouses of traders remained stable [7]. 3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the spot price of asphalt in South China, the basis of Shandong asphalt, the daily operating rate of asphalt, the comprehensive profit of Shandong asphalt, asphalt cracking, social inventory of asphalt, factory inventory of asphalt, and asphalt warehouse receipts. All data sources are Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [14][16][18]
新能源及有色金属日报:下游畏跌拒采,现货成交仍然清淡-20250821
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-08-21 03:05
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is neutral [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The lead market currently shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, with no obvious manifestation of peak - season demand in the battery sector. Due to the relatively strong performance of the non - ferrous metals sector under the influence of macro factors, the lead price is expected to fluctuate between 16,350 and 17,050 yuan/ton [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Spot Market - On August 20, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$41.80/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 75 yuan/ton to 16,600 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. Lead prices in different regions such as Shanghai, Guangdong, Henan, and Tianjin also showed varying degrees of decline. The lead scrap price difference remained unchanged at 25 yuan/ton, while waste battery prices decreased [1] 3.2 Futures Market - On August 20, 2025, the opening price of the main SHFE lead contract was 16,825 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 16,725 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The trading volume was 38,671 lots, an increase of 11,416 lots, and the position was 46,776 lots, a decrease of 1,336 lots. The night - session closing price increased by 0.33% compared to the afternoon closing price. After the decline in lead prices, downstream enterprises were hesitant to purchase due to fear of price drops, resulting in light overall spot trading [2] 3.3 Inventory - On August 20, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 71,000 tons, a decrease of 70 tons compared to the same period last week. As of August 20, the LME lead inventory was 281,100 tons, a decrease of 1,850 tons compared to the previous trading day [2]
新能源及有色金属日报:下游表现持续偏淡,铅价维持震荡格局-20250820
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-08-20 05:14
Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is neutral [4] Core View of the Report - The lead market currently shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, with no obvious manifestation of peak - season demand in batteries. Due to the relatively strong performance of the non - ferrous metals sector under the influence of macro factors, the lead price is expected to fluctuate between 16,350 and 17,050 [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot Market - On August 19, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was - $44.00 per ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price remained unchanged at 16,675 yuan per ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at - 25.00 yuan per ton, SMM Guangdong lead remained at 16,750 yuan per ton, SMM Henan lead remained at 16,675 yuan per ton, and SMM Tianjin lead remained at 16,700 yuan per ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained at 0 yuan per ton, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries remained at 10,175 yuan per ton, the price of waste white shells remained at 10,150 yuan per ton, and the price of waste black shells remained at 10,475 yuan per ton [1] Futures Market - On August 19, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,790 yuan per ton and closed at 16,825 yuan per ton, up 50 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 27,255 lots, a decrease of 3,340 lots from the previous trading day, and the position was 48,112 lots, a decrease of 1,384 lots. The intraday price fluctuated, with a high of 16,865 yuan per ton and a low of 16,765 yuan per ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,825 yuan per ton and closed at 16,695 yuan per ton, down 130 yuan per ton from the afternoon close. Downstream consumption was weak, with only rigid demand for procurement, and the enthusiasm of traders to buy was also low, resulting in continued weak spot trading [2] Inventory - On August 19, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 71,000 tons, a decrease of 70 tons compared to the same period last week. As of August 19, the LME lead inventory was 282,950 tons, a decrease of 625 tons from the previous trading day [3]
新能源及有色金属日报:持货商存在挺价情绪,价格维持震荡格局-20250812
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-08-12 06:48
Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is neutral [4] Core Viewpoint - The lead market is currently in a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the lead price is expected to maintain a volatile range between 16,300 yuan/ton and 17,150 yuan/ton [4] Summary by Directory Market News and Key Data Spot Market - On August 11, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$31.29/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price remained unchanged at 16,725 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The lead prices in different regions showed varying changes, with the SMM Shanghai lead spot premium unchanged at -35.00 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead price unchanged at 16,800 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead price up 25 yuan/ton to 16,750 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium up 50 yuan/ton to 16,775 yuan/ton. The lead refined-waste price difference remained unchanged at 25 yuan/ton, and the prices of waste electric vehicle batteries, waste white shells, and waste black shells also remained unchanged [1] Futures Market - On August 11, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,850 yuan/ton and closed at 16,885 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 35,623 lots, up 4,615 lots from the previous trading day, and the open interest was 54,395 lots, down 4,728 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with a high of 16,950 yuan/ton and a low of 16,820 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,855 yuan/ton and closed at 16,890 yuan/ton, up 0.03% from the afternoon close [2] Inventory - On August 11, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 70,000 tons, down 110,000 tons from the same period last week. As of August 11, the LME lead inventory was 265,800 tons, down 2,575 tons from the previous trading day [3] Strategy - The recommended option strategy is to sell a wide straddle [4]
建信期货沥青日报-20250731
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-31 01:00
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The asphalt market still maintains a pattern of weak supply and demand. With oil prices rebounding due to macro - and geopolitical support, a short - term long strategy should be adopted for asphalt, and profits should be taken in a timely manner [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: For BU2509, the opening price was 3630 yuan/ton, the closing price was 3650 yuan/ton, the highest was 3677 yuan/ton, the lowest was 3616 yuan/ton, the daily increase was 1.00%, and the trading volume was 191,500 lots. For BU2510, the opening price was 3606 yuan/ton, the closing price was 3636 yuan/ton, the highest was 3659 yuan/ton, the lowest was 3601 yuan/ton, the daily increase was 1.22%, and the trading volume was 100,100 lots [6]. - **Spot Market**: Asphalt spot prices in North China, Shandong, and Sichuan - Chongqing markets increased, while prices in other regions remained stable. The continuous rise in crude oil and asphalt futures prices had a positive impact on the asphalt spot market sentiment. In terms of supply, although some refineries in the Northeast had no short - term production increase plans, due to the high - load production of Jinling Petrochemical after resuming production on the 23rd and the possible resumption of production by Shandong Shengxing Petrochemical, the average operating load rate of asphalt plants was expected to rise. On the demand side, rainy weather affected most parts of the country, and the improvement in asphalt demand was limited [6]. 3.2 Industry News - **South China Market**: The mainstream transaction price of 70A grade asphalt was 3560 - 3590 yuan/ton, remaining stable. Market demand improved slightly, and social inventory quotes remained stable, waiting for major refineries to re - price [8]. - **East China Market**: The mainstream transaction price of 70A grade asphalt was 3660 - 3800 yuan/ton, remaining stable. Affected by typhoon weather, market demand declined slightly. Although the asphalt futures market rebounded, it was difficult to increase spot prices due to weak demand [8]. 3.3 Data Overview The report presents multiple figures related to the asphalt market, including Shandong asphalt spot prices, Shandong asphalt basis, asphalt daily operating rate, Shandong asphalt comprehensive profit, asphalt cracking, asphalt social inventory, asphalt manufacturer inventory, and asphalt warehouse receipts, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of Jianxin Futures [14][16][17].
石油沥青日报:地缘溢价回落,供需两弱格局延续-20250626
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-06-26 03:43
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints - As the Middle - East situation eases significantly, the previous oil premium due to geopolitical conflicts has quickly declined, driving down the futures of the energy sector including asphalt. The overall supply - demand weakness in the asphalt market continues, with inventory remaining low. After the sharp drop in oil prices, refinery production costs have improved, which may increase asphalt production capacity utilization. However, due to weather and capital factors, the rigid demand for asphalt lacks highlights, and the overall market has insufficient driving force [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalog Market Analysis - On June 25, the closing price of the main BU2509 asphalt futures contract in the afternoon session was 3,574 yuan/ton, a decrease of 69 yuan/ton or 1.89% from the previous day's settlement price. The open interest was 251,579 lots, a decrease of 17,999 lots from the previous day, and the trading volume was 282,213 lots, a decrease of 178,364 lots [1] - The spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt from Zhuochuang Information are as follows: Northeast, 3,920 - 4,086 yuan/ton; Shandong, 3,650 - 4,030 yuan/ton; South China, 3,600 - 3,750 yuan/ton; East China, 3,700 - 3,800 yuan/ton [1] Strategy - Unilateral: Sideways - Inter - period: None - Inter - commodity: None - Futures - cash: None - Options: None [2] Figures - There are multiple figures in the report, including those showing the spot prices of heavy - traffic asphalt in different regions (Shandong, East China, South China, North China, Southwest, and Northwest), the closing prices of asphalt futures indices, main contracts, and near - month contracts, the trading volume and open interest of asphalt futures, domestic weekly asphalt production, asphalt production in different regions (Shandong, East China, South China, North China), domestic asphalt consumption in different fields (road, waterproofing, coking, ship fuel), and asphalt refinery and social inventories [3]
供需两弱 短期锌价格上下有限
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-06-25 09:22
Group 1 - The current spot market for zinc shows moderate performance, with 0 zinc priced at 22,150-22,250 CNY/ton, averaging 22,200 CNY/ton, an increase of 50 CNY/ton from the previous trading day [1] - The futures market closed with the main contract for zinc at 22,045 CNY/ton, reflecting a 0.57% increase, with a daily trading volume of 158,531 lots [2] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange reported a decrease in zinc warehouse receipts by 248 tons, totaling 7,471 tons [3] Group 2 - The analysis indicates that geopolitical tensions and potential changes in U.S. monetary policy are influencing market dynamics, with a focus on upcoming economic data [4] - Domestic zinc production is increasing, and there is a steady supply of imported ore, easing raw material supply pressures [4] - Despite low inventory levels, both supply and demand are weak, leading to limited price fluctuations and a range-bound market [4]
石油沥青日报:成本端支撑仍存,盘面窄幅震荡-20250606
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-06-06 03:05
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On June 5, the closing price of the main asphalt futures contract BU2507 in the afternoon session was 3,497 yuan/ton, down 0.4% from the previous settlement price. The open interest was 85,190 lots, a decrease of 4,256 lots compared to the previous day, and the trading volume was 133,237 lots, a decrease of 63,289 lots compared to the previous day [1]. - The spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt from Zhuochuang Information were: 3,800 - 4,091 yuan/ton in Northeast China; 3,470 - 3,870 yuan/ton in Shandong; 3,400 - 3,450 yuan/ton in South China; 3,580 - 3,650 yuan/ton in East China [1]. - Crude oil prices rebounded oscillatingly this week, consolidating the cost support for asphalt. Spot prices remained stable overall, with some major refineries in certain regions raising the asphalt settlement price, boosting the sentiment in the asphalt spot market. The futures market continued to fluctuate within a narrow range [1]. - The asphalt market maintained a pattern of weak supply and demand. Terminal demand was generally poor. In June, the temperature in northern regions was suitable for some infrastructure projects to start construction, but there was a lack of supra - seasonal growth momentum. In southern regions, the rainy season hindered road construction and restricted asphalt terminal consumption [1]. - Currently, the increase in market supply was limited. The overall operating rate and inventory were at low levels. With cost support, market pressure was limited, but the weak improvement in demand restricted the market's upward space [1]. Group 3: Strategies - Unilateral: Oscillation [2] - Inter - period: Go long on the spread of BU2507 - 2509 (positive spread) at low levels [2] - Inter - commodity: None [2] - Futures - cash: None [2] - Options: None [2] Group 4: Figures and Their Units - Figures showing the spot prices of heavy - traffic asphalt in different regions (Shandong, East China, South China, North China, Southwest China, Northwest China) are provided, with the unit of yuan/ton [3][10] - Figures showing the closing prices of the petroleum asphalt futures index, main contract, and near - month contract, as well as the near - month spread, are provided, with the unit of yuan/ton [3][18][21] - Figures showing the trading volume and open interest of petroleum asphalt futures (unilateral and main contract) are provided, with the unit of lots [3][23] - Figures showing the production volume of domestic asphalt (weekly, independent refineries, and in different regions like Shandong, East China, South China, North China) are provided, with the unit of 10,000 tons [3][29][31] - Figures showing the consumption of domestic asphalt in different fields (road, waterproofing, coking, ship fuel) are provided, with the unit of 10,000 tons [3][37][38] - Figures showing the inventory of asphalt refineries and social inventory (according to Longzhong data) are provided, with the unit of 10,000 tons [3][39]
现货成交偏淡,铅价震荡偏弱
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-05-23 05:31
Report Industry Investment Rating - Absolute price: Neutral [3] - Option strategy: Sell wide straddle [4] Core View - The current lead market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. The domestic ore supply is relatively tight, and smelters have low willingness to purchase high-silver ores. However, the energy storage battery sector performs outstandingly, with the operating rates of relevant enterprises generally reaching 80 - 100%. The industry is optimistic about the second half of the year, and some enterprises are preparing for capacity expansion. The lead price is currently treated with a volatile mindset, and the Pb2506 contract is expected to be in the range of 16,300 yuan/ton to 17,050 yuan/ton [3] Summary by Directory Spot Market - On May 22, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -26.12 dollars/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 16,625 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium decreased by 100 yuan/ton to -15.00 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead spot price decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 16,675 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot price decreased by 125 yuan/ton to 16,600 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 16,650 yuan/ton. The lead refined-scrap price difference remained unchanged at -50 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The prices of waste electric vehicle batteries, waste white shells, and waste black shells all decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 10,200 yuan/ton, 10,050 yuan/ton, and 10,400 yuan/ton respectively [1] Futures Market - On May 22, 2025, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 16,895 yuan/ton and closed at 16,685 yuan/ton, a decrease of 215 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 42,980 lots, an increase of 22,116 lots compared to the previous trading day. The position for the whole trading day was 45,301 lots, an increase of 28,537 lots compared to the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest point reaching 16,895 yuan/ton and the lowest point reaching 16,670 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 16,685 yuan/ton and closed at 16,695 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.51% compared to the afternoon closing price of the previous day [2] Inventory - On May 22, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 5.0 million tons, a decrease of 0.88 million tons compared to the same period last week. As of May 22, the LME lead inventory was 295,825 tons, an increase of 13,700 tons compared to the previous trading day [2]