Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the recent rise in lead prices is primarily driven by macroeconomic sentiment and a reduction in geopolitical concerns, rather than a strong reversal in supply and demand dynamics [2][3] - The Shanghai lead futures market showed a slight increase today, with the main contract closing at 17,075 yuan per ton, up 50 yuan or 0.29% [1] - The latest price for London lead is reported at 2,030.5 USD, an increase of 6 USD [1] Group 2 - Domestic spot lead prices experienced a slight decline, with the average price reported at 16,990 yuan per ton, an increase of 40 yuan [1][2] - The lead market is characterized by a weak balance between supply and demand, with primary lead supply remaining stable while recycled lead faces challenges due to raw material shortages and high environmental costs [3] - The market is currently seeing a tug-of-war between weak demand and expectations for post-holiday recovery, with some support coming from automotive starter batteries and energy storage needs [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [4] - Option: Sell wide straddle [4] Core View of the Report - At the end of the year, the supply - demand weakness pattern of the lead variety is more obvious. Driven by the overall rise in the non - ferrous sector, the demand off - season becomes even weaker. It is expected that the lead price will fluctuate between 16,900 and 17,800 yuan in January 2026 [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot - On January 5, 2026, the LME lead spot premium was -$46.54/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price changed by 100 yuan/ton to 17,225 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium changed by 50 yuan/ton to 0.00 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong lead spot price changed by 150 yuan/ton to 17,300 yuan/ton. The SMM Henan lead spot price changed by 125 yuan/ton to 17,275 yuan/ton. The SMM Tianjin lead spot premium changed by 150 yuan/ton to 17,300 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at - 150 yuan/ton. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries changed by 50 yuan/ton to 10,000 yuan/ton. The price of waste white shells changed by 50 yuan/ton to 10,100 yuan/ton. The price of waste black shells changed by 25 yuan/ton to 10,375 yuan/ton [1] Futures - On January 5, 2026, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 17,365 yuan/ton and closed at 17,395 yuan/ton, a change of 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 38,065 lots, a change of - 39,893 lots from the previous trading day. The position was 47,544 lots, a change of 2,132 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest point reaching 17,480 yuan/ton and the lowest point reaching 17,300 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 17,385 yuan/ton and closed at 17,455 yuan/ton, a 0.34% increase from the previous afternoon's close. The SMM1 lead price dropped by 50 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The SHFE lead futures fluctuated weakly. In Henan, holders quoted at a discount of 180 - 150 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2506 contract. In Hunan, smelters' quotes at a discount of 30 - 0 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead average price had difficulty in成交. Traders quoted at a discount of 200 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2506 contract. In Anhui and Jiangxi, smelters' inventory was low, and they quoted at a premium of 100 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead average price for ex - factory sales. In Guangdong, holders' ex - factory sources were quoted at a premium of 0 - 50 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead average price for成交 [2] Inventory - On January 5, 2026, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 19,000 tons, a change of 600 tons from the same period last week. As of November 28, the LME lead inventory was 236,900 tons, a change of - 2,600 tons from the previous trading day [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the mixed performance of the domestic energy and chemical sector in the futures market, with asphalt futures experiencing a significant increase of 3.78%, reaching 3128.00 CNY/ton [1][2] Group 2 - Cost implications arise from the interruption of Venezuelan oil supply, which may significantly impact asphalt production in China, leading to potential increases in costs even if suitable import alternatives are found [2] - The current spot market shows stable prices for asphalt, with Shandong at 2950 CNY/ton, East China at 3090 CNY/ton, and South China increasing by 40 to 2940 CNY/ton [2] - The fundamental analysis indicates a persistent weak supply-demand dynamic, with winter storage not exceeding expectations and general trading levels remaining average, while upstream inventory is slightly accumulating [2] - Refinery operations are stable, with some units undergoing maintenance, resulting in a slight reduction in overall excess pressure [2] - Future market outlook suggests that escalating tensions in South America may lead to a significant decline in Venezuelan oil shipments to Asia, increasing risks for non-US buyers [2] - Despite the weak fundamentals in the asphalt market, potential upward drivers may emerge from the raw material side, particularly if Venezuelan oil supply tightens, which could elevate the cost base for asphalt refineries and create further rebound space for asphalt prices [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Absolute price: Neutral [3] - Option strategy: On hold [4] Core View - The domestic lead ore supply is still relatively tight, and smelters have low willingness to purchase high-silver ores. The market is currently in a pattern of weak supply and demand. Since the National Day, downstream demand has been better than expected, leading to significant inventory reduction in China. However, with the overall adjustment of the non-ferrous sector, lead prices may temporarily enter a volatile pattern [3] Summary by Directory Market News and Important Data Spot - On October 28, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$33.80/ton. The SMM 1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 17,225 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at 30 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead spot price decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 17,300 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot price decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 17,300 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 17,350 yuan/ton. The lead refined-scrap price difference remained unchanged at -50 yuan/ton, and the prices of waste electric vehicle batteries, waste white shells, and waste black shells also remained unchanged [1] Futures - On October 28, 2025, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 17,520 yuan/ton, closed at 17,355 yuan/ton, down 165 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 57,175 lots, a decrease of 24,547 lots from the previous trading day, and the open interest was 77,635 lots, a decrease of 6,760 lots. The intraday price fluctuated, with a high of 17,540 yuan/ton and a low of 17,340 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 17,315 yuan/ton and closed at 17,370 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton from the afternoon close [2] Inventory - On October 28, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 30,000 tons, a decrease of 1,600 tons from the same period last week. As of November 28, the LME lead inventory was 229,675 tons, a decrease of 3,000 tons from the previous trading day [2] Strategy - The absolute price strategy is neutral, and the option strategy is to wait and see [3][4]

Report Information - Report Title: Asphalt Daily Report [1] - Report Date: September 11, 2025 [2] Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View - The asphalt market remains in a situation of weak supply and demand, and its price continues to fluctuate with oil prices, but the fluctuation range is expected to be lower than that of oil prices. It is recommended to wait and see for now [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: The BU2511 contract opened at 3,424 yuan/ton, closed at 3,450 yuan/ton, with a high of 3,457 yuan/ton, a low of 3,421 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 0.88%, and a trading volume of 15.04 million lots. The BU2512 contract opened at 3,372 yuan/ton, closed at 3,399 yuan/ton, with a high of 3,410 yuan/ton, a low of 3,372 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 0.74%, and a trading volume of 2.34 million lots [6]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices of asphalt in North China and Shandong markets increased, while those in other regions remained generally stable. Some brands had good sales, which was beneficial to the spot price of asphalt [6]. - **Supply Side**: Jiangsu Xinhai will switch production to residual oil again, but Qilu Petrochemical has switched to asphalt production since the 6th. Ningbo Keyuan and Qicheng Petrochemical will maintain stable production after resuming asphalt production. It is expected that the operating rate of asphalt plants will continue to rise [6]. - **Demand Side**: Road projects in North China and surrounding areas will start one after another, resulting in a slight increase in asphalt demand. However, the precipitation in the southern region is more than the same period of the previous year, and the rigid demand remains stable [6]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Temporarily wait and see [6]. 2. Industry News - **East China Market**: The mainstream transaction price of 70 A-grade asphalt was 3,560 - 3,700 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared with the previous working day. Due to the low shipping price of refineries, the shipping volume of social warehouses in East China decreased significantly year-on-year, and the increase in trucking shipments was limited. The destocking speed of social warehouses was slow, and the price continued to be under pressure. The operating load of refineries in East China was generally high, the supply was abundant, and the mainstream trucking price range was temporarily stable [7]. - **South China Market**: The mainstream transaction price of 70 A-grade asphalt was 3,490 - 3,540 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared with the previous working day. After the contract price of Dongyou was raised, it was executed at 3,510 yuan/ton, still within the price range of the South China market. The rigid demand in the South China region weakened periodically, but the market still had positive expectations for the peak-season demand, and the quotes of social warehouses of traders remained stable [7]. 3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the spot price of asphalt in South China, the basis of Shandong asphalt, the daily operating rate of asphalt, the comprehensive profit of Shandong asphalt, asphalt cracking, social inventory of asphalt, factory inventory of asphalt, and asphalt warehouse receipts. All data sources are Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [14][16][18]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is neutral [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The lead market currently shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, with no obvious manifestation of peak - season demand in the battery sector. Due to the relatively strong performance of the non - ferrous metals sector under the influence of macro factors, the lead price is expected to fluctuate between 16,350 and 17,050 yuan/ton [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Spot Market - On August 20, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$41.80/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 75 yuan/ton to 16,600 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. Lead prices in different regions such as Shanghai, Guangdong, Henan, and Tianjin also showed varying degrees of decline. The lead scrap price difference remained unchanged at 25 yuan/ton, while waste battery prices decreased [1] 3.2 Futures Market - On August 20, 2025, the opening price of the main SHFE lead contract was 16,825 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 16,725 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The trading volume was 38,671 lots, an increase of 11,416 lots, and the position was 46,776 lots, a decrease of 1,336 lots. The night - session closing price increased by 0.33% compared to the afternoon closing price. After the decline in lead prices, downstream enterprises were hesitant to purchase due to fear of price drops, resulting in light overall spot trading [2] 3.3 Inventory - On August 20, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 71,000 tons, a decrease of 70 tons compared to the same period last week. As of August 20, the LME lead inventory was 281,100 tons, a decrease of 1,850 tons compared to the previous trading day [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is neutral [4] Core View of the Report - The lead market currently shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, with no obvious manifestation of peak - season demand in batteries. Due to the relatively strong performance of the non - ferrous metals sector under the influence of macro factors, the lead price is expected to fluctuate between 16,350 and 17,050 [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot Market - On August 19, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was - $44.00 per ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price remained unchanged at 16,675 yuan per ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at - 25.00 yuan per ton, SMM Guangdong lead remained at 16,750 yuan per ton, SMM Henan lead remained at 16,675 yuan per ton, and SMM Tianjin lead remained at 16,700 yuan per ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained at 0 yuan per ton, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries remained at 10,175 yuan per ton, the price of waste white shells remained at 10,150 yuan per ton, and the price of waste black shells remained at 10,475 yuan per ton [1] Futures Market - On August 19, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,790 yuan per ton and closed at 16,825 yuan per ton, up 50 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 27,255 lots, a decrease of 3,340 lots from the previous trading day, and the position was 48,112 lots, a decrease of 1,384 lots. The intraday price fluctuated, with a high of 16,865 yuan per ton and a low of 16,765 yuan per ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,825 yuan per ton and closed at 16,695 yuan per ton, down 130 yuan per ton from the afternoon close. Downstream consumption was weak, with only rigid demand for procurement, and the enthusiasm of traders to buy was also low, resulting in continued weak spot trading [2] Inventory - On August 19, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 71,000 tons, a decrease of 70 tons compared to the same period last week. As of August 19, the LME lead inventory was 282,950 tons, a decrease of 625 tons from the previous trading day [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is neutral [4] Core Viewpoint - The lead market is currently in a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the lead price is expected to maintain a volatile range between 16,300 yuan/ton and 17,150 yuan/ton [4] Summary by Directory Market News and Key Data Spot Market - On August 11, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$31.29/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price remained unchanged at 16,725 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The lead prices in different regions showed varying changes, with the SMM Shanghai lead spot premium unchanged at -35.00 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead price unchanged at 16,800 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead price up 25 yuan/ton to 16,750 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium up 50 yuan/ton to 16,775 yuan/ton. The lead refined-waste price difference remained unchanged at 25 yuan/ton, and the prices of waste electric vehicle batteries, waste white shells, and waste black shells also remained unchanged [1] Futures Market - On August 11, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,850 yuan/ton and closed at 16,885 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 35,623 lots, up 4,615 lots from the previous trading day, and the open interest was 54,395 lots, down 4,728 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with a high of 16,950 yuan/ton and a low of 16,820 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,855 yuan/ton and closed at 16,890 yuan/ton, up 0.03% from the afternoon close [2] Inventory - On August 11, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 70,000 tons, down 110,000 tons from the same period last week. As of August 11, the LME lead inventory was 265,800 tons, down 2,575 tons from the previous trading day [3] Strategy - The recommended option strategy is to sell a wide straddle [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The asphalt market still maintains a pattern of weak supply and demand. With oil prices rebounding due to macro - and geopolitical support, a short - term long strategy should be adopted for asphalt, and profits should be taken in a timely manner [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: For BU2509, the opening price was 3630 yuan/ton, the closing price was 3650 yuan/ton, the highest was 3677 yuan/ton, the lowest was 3616 yuan/ton, the daily increase was 1.00%, and the trading volume was 191,500 lots. For BU2510, the opening price was 3606 yuan/ton, the closing price was 3636 yuan/ton, the highest was 3659 yuan/ton, the lowest was 3601 yuan/ton, the daily increase was 1.22%, and the trading volume was 100,100 lots [6]. - **Spot Market**: Asphalt spot prices in North China, Shandong, and Sichuan - Chongqing markets increased, while prices in other regions remained stable. The continuous rise in crude oil and asphalt futures prices had a positive impact on the asphalt spot market sentiment. In terms of supply, although some refineries in the Northeast had no short - term production increase plans, due to the high - load production of Jinling Petrochemical after resuming production on the 23rd and the possible resumption of production by Shandong Shengxing Petrochemical, the average operating load rate of asphalt plants was expected to rise. On the demand side, rainy weather affected most parts of the country, and the improvement in asphalt demand was limited [6]. 3.2 Industry News - **South China Market**: The mainstream transaction price of 70A grade asphalt was 3560 - 3590 yuan/ton, remaining stable. Market demand improved slightly, and social inventory quotes remained stable, waiting for major refineries to re - price [8]. - **East China Market**: The mainstream transaction price of 70A grade asphalt was 3660 - 3800 yuan/ton, remaining stable. Affected by typhoon weather, market demand declined slightly. Although the asphalt futures market rebounded, it was difficult to increase spot prices due to weak demand [8]. 3.3 Data Overview The report presents multiple figures related to the asphalt market, including Shandong asphalt spot prices, Shandong asphalt basis, asphalt daily operating rate, Shandong asphalt comprehensive profit, asphalt cracking, asphalt social inventory, asphalt manufacturer inventory, and asphalt warehouse receipts, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of Jianxin Futures [14][16][17].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints - As the Middle - East situation eases significantly, the previous oil premium due to geopolitical conflicts has quickly declined, driving down the futures of the energy sector including asphalt. The overall supply - demand weakness in the asphalt market continues, with inventory remaining low. After the sharp drop in oil prices, refinery production costs have improved, which may increase asphalt production capacity utilization. However, due to weather and capital factors, the rigid demand for asphalt lacks highlights, and the overall market has insufficient driving force [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalog Market Analysis - On June 25, the closing price of the main BU2509 asphalt futures contract in the afternoon session was 3,574 yuan/ton, a decrease of 69 yuan/ton or 1.89% from the previous day's settlement price. The open interest was 251,579 lots, a decrease of 17,999 lots from the previous day, and the trading volume was 282,213 lots, a decrease of 178,364 lots [1] - The spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt from Zhuochuang Information are as follows: Northeast, 3,920 - 4,086 yuan/ton; Shandong, 3,650 - 4,030 yuan/ton; South China, 3,600 - 3,750 yuan/ton; East China, 3,700 - 3,800 yuan/ton [1] Strategy - Unilateral: Sideways - Inter - period: None - Inter - commodity: None - Futures - cash: None - Options: None [2] Figures - There are multiple figures in the report, including those showing the spot prices of heavy - traffic asphalt in different regions (Shandong, East China, South China, North China, Southwest, and Northwest), the closing prices of asphalt futures indices, main contracts, and near - month contracts, the trading volume and open interest of asphalt futures, domestic weekly asphalt production, asphalt production in different regions (Shandong, East China, South China, North China), domestic asphalt consumption in different fields (road, waterproofing, coking, ship fuel), and asphalt refinery and social inventories [3]