热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：华泰期货 作者： 康远宁 市场要闻与重要数据 策略 油价短期区间震荡，中期空头配置 风险 下行风险：俄乌和谈达成，宏观黑天鹅事件 上行风险：制裁油（俄罗斯、伊朗、委内瑞拉）供应收紧、中东冲突导致大规模断供 1、 纽约商品交易所2月交货的轻质原油期货价格上涨1.77美元，收于每桶57.76美元，涨幅为3.16%；3 月交货的伦敦布伦特原油期货价格上涨2.03美元，收于每桶61.99美元，涨幅为3.39%。SC原油主力合约 收涨1.58%，报425元/桶。（来源：Bloomberg） 2、 1月8日，美国财政部部长贝森特表示，美国将取消部分针对委内瑞拉实体的制裁。针对未来美国有 关对委内瑞拉"管理"的相关事宜，贝森特表示，其希望稳定委内瑞拉现有的结构。就有关委内瑞拉境内 资产问题，贝森特称，美国财政部将负责监督委内瑞拉的资产出售，并根据美国国务卿鲁比奥的指示将 所得款项返还给委内瑞拉。贝森特还表示，独立石油公司有兴趣尽快投资委内瑞拉，大型石油公司在委 内瑞拉的行动可能会更加谨慎。（来源：Bloomberg） 3、 1月8日，随着海湾两大强国之 ...

| 能源化工 区 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | NYMEX WTI原 | ICE布油 | ICE轻质低硫原 | | 56.95 | 60.42 | 57.00 | | -0.37 -0.65% | -0.33 -0.54% | -0.01 -0.02% | | INE原油 | INE低硫燃料油 | NYMEX天然气 | | 422.7 | 2904 | 3.462 | | -13.8 -3.16% | -52 -1.76% | -0.156 -4.31% | | | | 6 @中新经纬 | 由于委内瑞拉总统马杜罗被俘，原油市场本周一出现高走，今日早间美原油一度上涨0.5%，最高触及 57.73美元/加仑，布伦特原油则最高触及61.24美元/加仑。不过随后走弱，截至发稿，两个原油品种翻 绿，美原油跌0.65%，报56.95美元，布伦特原油跌0.54%，报60.42美元。据央视新闻，美国对委内瑞拉 油轮运输实施封锁，导致原油无法外运。数据显示，目前滞留在海上无法离港的委内瑞拉原油总量已超 过1700万桶。 ...

本周燃料油主力合约 FU2603 收于 2390 元/吨，较前一交易周 结算价下跌 15 元/吨，跌幅为 0.62%。本周最高价为 2460 元/吨, 最低价为 2366 元/吨、成交量为 2927936 手，持仓量为 301764 手，增加 94646 手。 图 1：FU 燃油周行情图 研究咨询: 028 6130 3163 邮箱: institute@gjgh.com.cn 投诉热线:4006821188 请务必阅读文末风险揭示及免责声明 研究品种:燃料油 成文日期：20251222 报告周期:周报 研究员：何宁（从业资格号：F0238922；投资咨询从业证书号：Z0001219) 然料油期货周报 核心观点: 本周燃料油合约整体呈现震荡下跌态势,整体跟随国际原油波 动节奏。本周主要受美委关系紧张、委内瑞拉出口受阻等地缘消息 扰动,但中长期原油市场供过于求格局未改,对燃料油价格支撑有 限。 1期货市场 1.1 合约行情 数据来源:上海期货交易所 1.2 品种价格 燃料油期货各合约价差进一步收窄。 图 2： FU 燃油行情表 | 交割月份 | 周开盘价 | 圈高价 | 图低价 | 同收盘份 | 涨跌 | 持会 ...

证券研究报告 本期内容提要： [Table_Author] 行业研究——周报 [Tabl Table_StockAndRank] 石油加工行业 e_ReportType] 行业评级 ——看好 上次评级——看好 刘红光 石化行业联席首席分析师 执业编号：S1500525060002 邮箱：liuhongguang@cindasc.com 胡晓艺 石化行业分析师 执业编号：S1500524070003 邮箱：huxiaoyi@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDASECURITIESCO.，LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅 大厦B座 邮编：100031 原油周报：地缘溢价持续回吐 [Table_T ， itle油价] 震荡下跌 [Table_ReportDate0] 2025 年 12 月 21 日 [Table_Summary] ➢ 【油价回顾】截至 2025 年 12 月 19 日当周，国际油价震荡下行。周 前中期，乌美就安全保障协议深入磋商，特朗普与欧洲领导人通话谈 论俄乌和谈进展，乌方与美国代表和谈富有成效，俄乌达成和平协议 的前景将增加供应，加剧供应过剩担忧，国际油价承压 ...

Report Overview - Report Title: Daily Core Futures Variety Analysis - Release Date: December 10, 2025 - Data Sources: Wind, Guantong Research and Consulting Department, and various industry information providers 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View As of the close on December 10, domestic futures main contracts showed mixed performance. Some commodities like silver and container shipping to Europe had significant increases, while others such as alumina and soda ash declined. The performance of each commodity was affected by factors including supply - demand relationships, production conditions, geopolitical situations, and macro - economic expectations [6][7]. 3. Summary by Commodity 3.1 Commodity Performance - Gainers: Shanghai silver rose over 5%, container shipping to Europe rose over 3%, lithium carbonate and Shanghai tin rose over 2%, iron ore, soybeans, polysilicon, and soybeans No. 2 rose nearly 2% [6] - Losers: Alumina fell over 3%, soda ash, glass, industrial silicon, and styrene fell over 2%, log, pure benzene, PVC, palm oil, coking coal, SC crude oil, staple fiber, polypropylene, and propylene fell over 1% [7] - Stock Index Futures: CSI 300 Index Futures (IF) main contract fell 0.15%, SSE 50 Index Futures (IH) main contract fell 0.35%, CSI 500 Index Futures (IC) main contract rose 0.39%, CSI 1000 Index Futures (IM) main contract rose 0.26% [7] - Bond Futures: 2 - year Treasury bond futures (TS) main contract rose 0.04%, 5 - year Treasury bond futures (TF) main contract rose 0.06%, 10 - year Treasury bond futures (T) main contract rose 0.06%, 30 - year Treasury bond futures (TL) main contract rose 0.30% [7] 3.2 Market Analysis by Commodity 3.2.1 Shanghai Copper - Market Trend: Opened low and moved lower, with weak intraday fluctuations - Production: In November, the production rate of recycled copper rods was 23.84%, higher than expected but lower than the previous month and the same period last year. In December, 4 smelters are expected to have maintenance, and production is expected to increase due to previous restarts [9] - Demand: Downstream demand is weak. Copper tube enterprises are cautious, and the production of copper plate and strip and copper rod is affected by cost and order issues [9] 3.2.2 Lithium Carbonate - Market Trend: Opened low and moved high, rising nearly 3% intraday - Production: In November, production continued to grow, and in December, it is expected to increase by about 3%. The capacity utilization rate this week is 75.34%, significantly higher year - on - year [10][11] - Demand: Downstream production continues to grow but at a slower pace, and the impact of energy storage demand needs further verification [11] - Inventory: In November, the inventory decreased slightly after 5 consecutive months of decline [11] 3.2.3 Crude Oil - Supply: OPEC + will maintain production in 2026, and 8 additional voluntary - cut countries will suspend production increases in Q1 2026. US production is at a high level, and global floating storage is increasing. Some oil fields have resumed production [12] - Demand: The peak demand season is over, and US refined product inventories have increased more than expected [12] - Geopolitics: The Russia - Ukraine peace talks are difficult to reach in the near term, and the US - Venezuela military confrontation has intensified [12] - Price Outlook: Expected to be weak and volatile [14] 3.2.4 Asphalt - Supply: Last week, the operating rate increased 0.1 percentage points to 27.9%. In December, the planned output is 215.8 million tons, a decrease of 3.1% month - on - month and 13.8% year - on - year [15] - Demand: Downstream demand is affected by funds and weather, and overall demand is average [15] - Price Outlook: Expected to be weak and volatile [15] 3.2.5 PP - Supply: As of December 5, the downstream operating rate rose 0.10 percentage points to 53.93%. The enterprise operating rate is about 84%, and the production ratio of standard - grade drawn wire has decreased. New capacity has been put into operation, and maintenance devices have decreased slightly [16][17] - Demand: Downstream demand is at the end of the peak season, orders have decreased, and the market lacks large - scale purchases [16][17] - Price Outlook: Expected to be weak and volatile, and the L - PP spread is expected to narrow [17] 3.2.6 Plastic - Supply: The operating rate is about 90%. New capacity has been put into operation, and the operating rate has increased slightly. Petrochemical inventories are at a relatively high level [18] - Demand: The downstream operating rate has decreased, and the peak season of agricultural film is coming to an end. Orders have continued to decline, and downstream procurement is mainly based on rigid demand [18] - Price Outlook: Expected to be weak and volatile, and the L - PP spread is expected to narrow [18] 3.2.7 PVC - Supply: The operating rate has decreased slightly to 79.89%, and new capacity has been put into operation. Social inventories are still high [19][20] - Demand: Downstream demand is weak, and the real estate market is still in the adjustment stage [20] - Price Outlook: Expected to be weak and volatile [20] 3.2.8 Coking Coal - Market Trend: Opened high and moved high but fell more than 1% intraday - Supply: Near the end of the year, imported coal has increased, and the production rate of coal mines has decreased slightly. Some factories may reduce production after completing their annual tasks [21] - Demand: Iron water production has decreased, and coking and steel mills are in the off - season. The demand for coking coal is expected to continue to decline [21] - Inventory: The inventory of independent coking enterprises and steel mills has decreased, while the inventory of mines has increased significantly [21] - Price Outlook: The fundamentals are weak, but short - term demand may increase due to restocking [21] 3.2.9 Urea - Market Trend: Opened high and moved low, then strengthened intraday - Supply: Upstream devices have both shutdowns and restarts, and the daily production has not decreased significantly [23] - Demand: Downstream winter storage and export orders are stable. The new orders of compound fertilizer factories are not good, and the operating rate is approaching the high - point of the same period in recent years [23] - Inventory: The inventory has continued to decline, and the current supply - demand logic is relatively balanced [23] - Price Outlook: Short - term strength, and attention should be paid to the impact of the Fed's interest - rate decision on commodities [23]

能化板块周度报告 新纪元期货研究 20251205 张伟伟 从业资格证号：F0269806 投资咨询证号：Z0002796 鲍玉虹 从业资讯证号：F03149670 投资有风险，入市需谨慎 聚酯板块数据周报 宏观及原油重要资讯一览 在乌克兰无人机袭击里海管道联盟位于黑海的装载设施之后，哈萨克斯坦石油和天然气凝析油的日产量在12月前两日也出现下滑，较11月的 平均水平下降约6%，至每日190万桶。作为哈萨克斯坦石油出口的关键动脉，里海管道承担着该国超过80%的出口任务，输送是在全球石油供 应中的占比超过1%。 据新华社报道，当地时间2日晚，俄罗斯总统普京和美国中东问题特使威特科夫在克里姆林言举行会谈。俄总统助理乌沙科夫会谈后表示会 谈"非常有益、富有建设性且信息量巨大"，但并未达成解决乌克兰问题的折中方案，在美俄会谈进展有限的背景下，俄罗斯原油供应的回 归时点尚不明朗。 3 沙特将其主要原油品种对亚洲的售价下调至五年来最低水平。根据定价文件，沙特阿美将把明年1月旗舰级阿拉伯轻质原油对亚洲的官方售 价设定为较地区基准升水0.6美元，为自2021年1月以来的最低水平。根据对炼油商和交易商的调査，此次降价幅度略高于预 ...

行业 原油日报 日期 2025 年 12 月 3 日 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅碳市场） 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 二、 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the recent trends in gasoline and diesel prices in China, highlighting a significant downward adjustment in fuel prices due to market conditions and historical data analysis [3][5]. Price Adjustments - The latest adjustment on November 24 resulted in a decrease of 70 and 65 yuan per ton for gasoline and diesel respectively, marking the 10th price drop of the year [3]. - For the year 2025, from January to November, gasoline prices have decreased by 690 yuan per ton, while diesel prices have dropped by 660 yuan per ton, translating to a reduction of over 0.54 yuan per liter [3]. Future Price Predictions - The next price adjustment is scheduled for December 8, with expectations of a further decrease of approximately 75 yuan per ton based on current crude oil prices [5]. - The reference crude oil price is currently at 60.8 USD per barrel, with a slight negative change rate of -1.42% [5]. Regional Price Variations - As of November 29, gasoline prices in various regions are reported, with 92 gasoline in Shandong dropping to 6.85 yuan per liter, down from 7.4 yuan per liter at the end of the previous year [3][6]. - The article provides a detailed table of gasoline and diesel prices across different regions, indicating variations in pricing [6].

点击按钮▲立即预约 央行开展1万亿元MLF操作 11月25日，央行开展1万亿元中期借贷便利（MLF）操作，期限为1年期。鉴于11月有9000亿元MLF到期，当月央行MLF净投放规模将达到1000 亿元，为央行连续第九个月对MLF加量续作。11月以来，央行两度开展公开市场买断式逆回购操作，累计净投放5000亿元。综合来看，MLF与 买断式逆回购两项政策工具在11月合计释放中期流动性6000亿元，与上月净投放规模持平。 2025年第三季度中国货币政策执行报告显示，第三季度，买断式逆回购和MLF操作合计净投放1.5万亿元，为保持市场流动性充裕提供有力支 持。（财联社） ｜点评｜ 此前美联储进入降息周期，打开全球央行的降息空间，也打开市场关于我国央行年内降准降息的想象。然而，在三季度货币政策报告 中，央行强调逆周期和跨周期调节，在一定程度上为市场的宽松预期降温。今年以来，央行的流动性调节更趋精细化，偏向于运用不同期限的 货币政策工具，应对各时间段的资金需求。年底加量续作MLF，与买断式逆回购组成中短期投放框架，向银行体系注入流动性，基本保持了资 金面宽裕。 考虑到"十五五"开局以及春节的流动性需要，不排除央行在年终降 ...

Group 1: Market Indices - The chemical sector indices experienced significant declines, with the chemical raw materials index down 8.61%, chemical machinery index down 7.11%, pharmaceutical index down 6.63%, and pesticide and fertilizer index down 5.94% [1] - In contrast, the oil sector indices showed mixed results, with the oil processing index up 1.4% and the oil extraction index up 0.67%, while the oil trade index fell by 4.96% [1] Group 2: Oil Prices - The sentiment in the crude oil market turned bearish due to the Trump administration urging Ukraine and Russia to reach a peace agreement, alongside a strengthening US dollar, leading to a decline in oil prices [1] - As of November 21, the settlement price for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures was $58.06 per barrel, down 3.38% from November 14, while Brent crude oil futures settled at $62.56 per barrel, down 2.84% [1] Group 3: Chemical Products - The top five rising petrochemical products included industrial-grade lithium carbonate up 13.67%, dimethyl carbonate up 12.32%, lithium battery electrolyte up 8%, sulfur up 7.54%, and folic acid up 6.25% [2] - Conversely, the top five declining petrochemical products were liquid chlorine down 6.25%, diethylene glycol down 5.35%, isooctyl acrylate down 5.13%, PVC by ethylene method down 3.49%, and tetrachloroethylene down 3.49% [2] Group 4: Stock Performance - In the capital market, the top five gaining listed chemical companies were Guofeng Plastics up 33.33%, Huarong Chemical up 27.82%, Tongyi Co. up 16.51%, Chenguang New Materials up 16.37%, and Tongcheng New Materials up 14.75% [2] - The top five declining listed chemical companies included Annada down 26.13%, Taihe Technology down 25.64%, Jiaao Enpro down 25.62%, Jianye Co. down 24.85%, and Sanfangxiang down 23.33% [2]