重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-08-11原油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 6.预期：特朗普与普金将于本周会晤，有消息成乌克兰总统也将参加，市场地缘担忧情绪减弱，油价下行 跌破前期震荡区间下沿，目前来看乌克兰和欧洲对于市场透出的一些停火条件持反对意见，后续谈判仍存 变数，不过市场已然预期停火达成，油价偏弱震荡运行，注意后续会谈前后存有较大波动风险，投资谨慎 操作。短线490-500区间运行，长线多单持有。 近期要闻 1. 当地时间8月8日，美国总统特朗普在其社交平台"真实社交"上发文称，将与俄罗斯总统普京于8月15日在阿 拉斯加州举行会晤，更多细节将随后公布。当地时间8月9日，俄罗斯总统助理乌沙 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★☆★, indicating a bullish bias but limited trading opportunities on the market [5] - Fuel oil & Low-sulfur fuel oil: ☆☆☆, suggesting a short-term equilibrium state with poor market operability and a wait-and-see approach [5] - Asphalt: ★★★, representing a clearer bullish trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [5] - LPG: ☆☆☆, showing a short-term equilibrium state with poor market operability and a wait-and-see approach [5] Report's Core View - The crude oil market showed a pattern of rising first and then falling last week. The market risk sentiment declined due to the lower-than-expected US non-farm payroll data in July. Although OPEC+ decided to increase production in September, it could only partially hedge certain risks, and the oil price is expected to be volatile and bullish after the recent correction. The fuel oil and low-sulfur fuel oil markets are facing weak fundamentals, and their cracking spreads are expected to remain weak. The asphalt supply increase space is neutral, demand needs to be repaired, and the low inventory supports the price, with its trend mainly following that of crude oil. The LPG market has a relatively loose supply, and the downside space of the spot price is limited [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Last week, the Brent 10 contract rose 2.84% and the SC09 contract rose 2.92%. The US July non-farm payroll data was lower than expected, and the data for May and June were significantly revised downward, causing the market risk sentiment to decline. OPEC+ decided to increase production by 547,000 barrels per day in September to fully exit the 2.2 million barrels per day batch production cut, which can only partially hedge some risks. The oil price is expected to be volatile and bullish after the recent correction, and attention should be paid to the implementation of the extension of Sino-US reciprocal tariffs before the August 12 deadline [2] Fuel Oil & Low-sulfur Fuel Oil - Crude oil led the decline in oil futures, and the fuel oil series trended lower. The low-sulfur fuel oil cracking continued to decline. The arrival volume in the Singapore market increased significantly in July, and the ship refueling demand lacked support after the peak season. The ship refueling volume in Fujairah has been weakening month-on-month since June. Due to the weak fundamentals of the high and low-sulfur fuel oil markets and the support of crude oil's peak-season demand and geopolitics, the cracking spreads of FU and LU are expected to remain weak [2] Asphalt - The inflow of Venezuelan crude oil into China increased by 3.8% in July. The impact of the diversion of Venezuelan oil resources flowing to North Asia after Chevron was approved to conduct oil business in Venezuela needs to be observed. The production plan in August decreased compared to July, but some Sinopec refineries' actual production exceeded the plan for two consecutive months. The demand recovery in South China was delayed, and the rigid demand in the North was also weak. The sample refinery's shipment volume increased slightly month-on-month, and the cumulative year-on-year increase was stable. The refinery inventory destocking slowed down, and the social inventory increased slightly. The overall commercial inventory increased slightly month-on-month but remained at a relatively low level in recent years. The supply increase space of asphalt is considered neutral for now, and the actual production release of major refineries needs to be tracked. The demand is in a weak state and needs to be repaired, and the low inventory supports the price. The BU trend mainly follows that of crude oil with limited fluctuation space [3] LPG - The Middle East CP was significantly reduced, but the spot discount shrank. Attention should be paid to the accumulation of export surplus pressure under OPEC's production increase. The chemical profit margin stabilized due to the decline in the finished product end, and the PDH operating rate is still rising, providing bottom support for domestic demand. The supply is relatively loose with the overall increase in the arrival volume in July, and the refinery gas may continue to follow the decline in import costs. The market price maintains a low ratio to oil, and the downside space of the spot price is relatively limited after the rapid decline [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★☆★ (Indicates a bias towards a long position, with a driving force for price increase, but limited operability on the trading floor) [5] - Fuel oil & Low - sulfur fuel oil: ☆☆☆ (The short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state, and the current trading floor has poor operability, suggesting to wait and see) [5] - Asphalt: ★★★ (Indicates a clearer long - position trend, and there is still a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently) [5] - LPG: ☆☆☆ (The short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state, and the current trading floor has poor operability, suggesting to wait and see) [5] 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall energy market is affected by multiple factors such as supply, demand, and geopolitical situations. Different energy products show different trends and investment opportunities [2][3][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude oil - Last week, the crude oil market rose first and then fell. Brent 10 contract still closed up 2.84%, and SC09 contract rose 2.92%. US July non - farm payrolls data was lower than expected, and data for May and June were significantly revised down. OPEC + 8 voluntary production - cut countries decided to increase production by 547,000 barrels per day in September. This week, after the oil price correction, it is temporarily regarded as oscillating strongly. Attention should be paid to the implementation of the extension of Sino - US reciprocal tariffs before the August 12 deadline [2] Fuel oil & Low - sulfur fuel oil - Crude oil led the decline in oil - related futures. The fuel oil series trended lower, and the low - sulfur fuel oil crack spread continued to decline. The arrival volume in the Singapore market increased significantly in July, and the bunker fuel demand in Fujeirah has been weakening month - on - month since June. The crack spreads of FU and LU are expected to continue the weak trend [2] Asphalt - In July, the inflow of Venezuelan crude oil into China increased by 3.8% month - on - month. The August production plan decreased compared with July, but some Sinopec refineries' actual production exceeded the plan for two consecutive months. Demand recovery in South China was delayed, and northern demand was also weak. The overall commercial inventory increased slightly month - on - month but remained at a relatively low level in recent years. The BU trend mainly follows the direction of crude oil, but the fluctuation range is limited [3] LPG - The Middle East CP was significantly lowered, but the spot discount shrank. The chemical profit margin stabilized due to the decline in the finished product end. The PDH operating rate is still rising, and domestic demand has bottom - level support. The supply side is relatively loose, and refinery gas may continue to follow the decline in import costs. The downside space of the spot is relatively limited after the rapid decline [4]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report - Overnight crude oil stopped falling and rebounded, maintaining a narrow sideways oscillation with a downward - shifting center of fluctuation and low market activity. The support below the market comes from the consumption peak season, but the support from the demand side is weakening in both time and space dimensions [3]. - The operating logic of the crude oil market has not changed, and the market is in the adjustment phase after the sharp fluctuations caused by geopolitical events. It is still supported by peak - season demand, and recent trade agreements between the US and other countries and economies have boosted the macro - sentiment [3]. - There is a lack of clear guidance in the news of the crude oil market recently. Next week is a macro super - week with multiple important meetings, including China - US economic and trade negotiations, the Politburo meeting, the Fed's interest - rate meeting, etc. Attention should be paid to the possibility of positive news from the China - US economic and trade negotiations and the reaction of the crude oil market after OPEC+ increases production in September [3]. - Currently, the crude oil market is in a narrow - range adjustment phase. The demand - side support is limited as the seasonal effect fades. Next week's macro - dynamics may bring new guidance to the crude oil market [3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Dynamics - Iran and three European countries (the UK, France, and Germany) started a new round of nuclear negotiations in Istanbul on July 25. This is their first meeting since the cease - fire in June, and the deputy - foreign - minister - level talks will be held behind closed doors [4]. - In June, China's naphtha imports reached a new high at 1.6081 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.61% and a year - on - year increase of 51.12%. The high - level imports in the second quarter were driven by supply and cost factors. The production in the second quarter was 47.0415 million tons, a 2.35% decrease from the first quarter, and the price of imported naphtha was more competitive due to the previous decline in crude oil prices. The average import price in June was $577.54 per ton, the lowest of the year [5]. - Oil loading at two major Russian Black Sea ports has been suspended due to new port - entry safety regulations. The situation is expected to be resolved in one or two days [5]. Global Crude Oil Price and Spread Changes | | 2025 - 07 - 25 | 2025 - 07 - 24 | 2025 - 07 - 18 | Daily Change | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Brent Crude M+2 | 69.42 | 69.18 | 69.28 | 0.24 | 0.14 | | WTI Crude M+2 | 65.31 | 65.13 | 66.05 | 0.18 | - 0.74 | | SC Crude M+2 | 501.2 | 498.7 | 504.1 | 2.5 | - 2.9 | | Dubai Crude M+2 | 68.41 | 67.85 | 67.85 | 0.56 | 0.56 | | Oman Crude M+2 | 71.48 | 70.7 | 71.03 | 0.78 | 0.45 | | Murban Crude M+2 | 72.33 | 71.36 | 70.71 | 0.97 | 1.62 | | EFS Spread M+2 | 0.77 | 0.66 | 1.67 | 0.11 | - 0.9 | | Brent Monthly Spread (M+2 - M+3) | 0.82 | 0.68 | 0.93 | 0.14 | - 0.11 | | Oman Monthly Spread (M+2 - M - 3) | 1.56 | 0.68 | 1.89 | 0.88 | - 0.33 | | Dubai Monthly Spread (M+1 - M+2) | 0.88 | 0.78 | 0.92 | 0.1 | - 0.04 | | SC Monthly Spread (M+1 - M+2) | 5.6 | 5.8 | 12.9 | - 0.2 | - 7.3 | | SC - Dubai (M+2) | 1.0207 | 1.6568 | 3.7559 | - 0.6361 | - 2.7352 | | SC - Oman (M+2) | - 1.9993 | - 1.0532 | 0.5459 | - 0.9461 | - 2.5452 | [7]

南华原油市场日报 ——美欧接近达成关税协议，宏观利好提振原油 2025年7月24日 杨歆悦（投资咨询证号：Z0022518） 南华研究院投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 【核心观点】 布伦特原油期货价格连1季节性 source： 彭博,南华研究 美元/桶 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 03/01 05/01 07/01 09/01 11/01 25 50 75 100 125 WTI原油期货价格连1季节性 source： 彭博,南华研究 美元/桶 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 03/01 05/01 07/01 09/01 11/01 0 50 100 隔夜原油继续小幅下行，整体维持横盘窄幅震荡，波动中枢略有下移。隔夜美盘时段，原油从日内低点反 弹回升，主要受英媒报道影响——美欧接近达成15%关税协议。受此消息带动，美股与原油同步走强，美股 刷新新高的同时，原油也逐步收复了日内跌幅。从近期表现看，在震荡调整过程中，外盘原油多头减仓显 著，市场多头情绪持续降温。过去两周，原油更呈现出放量下跌特征，尽管整体成交量处于低位，但在成 交适度放大时，日线均收跌，这 ...

Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - PTA is expected to move in a volatile manner, with cost being the dominant factor. The polyester industry chain is currently facing weak demand and is expected to fluctuate with costs. PX, PTA, and PR are all expected to oscillate. (PX view score: 0, PTA view score: 0, PR view score: 0) [2] Summary by Directory Price Information - **Upstream Products**: On July 22, 2025, WTI crude oil futures settled at $65.31 per barrel, down 2.81% from the previous value; Brent crude oil futures settled at $68.59 per barrel, down 0.90%. Naphtha spot price (CFR Japan) was $566.38 per ton, down 1.13%. The spot price of isomeric xylene (FOB South Korea) was $715.00 per ton, down 0.35% [1]. - **PTA Products**: CZCE TA main - contract closed at 4,794 yuan per ton on July 22, 2025, up 0.29%; the settlement price was 4,772 yuan per ton, down 0.08%. The spot price of domestic PTA was 4,775 yuan per ton, down 0.52%. The CCFEI price index of domestic PTA was 4,772 yuan per ton, down 0.21%, and the outer - market index was $630 per ton, up 0.48% [1]. - **PX Products**: CZCE PX main - contract closed at 6,886 yuan per ton on July 22, 2025, up 0.35%; the settlement price was 6,852 yuan per ton, up 0.03%. The domestic spot price of p - xylene remained unchanged at 6,719 yuan per ton. The PXN spread was $276.62 per ton, up 2.66%, and the PX - MX spread was $128.00 per ton, up 2.54% [1]. - **PR Products**: CZCE PR main - contract closed at 5,996 yuan per ton on July 22, 2025, up 0.20%; the settlement price was 5,980 yuan per ton, up 0.07%. The market price of polyester bottle chips in the East China market was 5,990 yuan per ton, down 0.17%, and in the South China market, it remained unchanged at 6,030 yuan per ton [1]. - **Downstream Products**: On July 22, 2025, the CCFEI price index of polyester staple fiber was 6,580 yuan per ton, down 0.15%; the index of bottle - grade chips was 5,990 yuan per ton, down 0.17%. Other downstream product price indices remained unchanged [2]. Operating Conditions - On July 22, 2025, the operating rate of PX in the polyester industry chain was 77.74%, unchanged; the PTA factory load rate was 80.59%, unchanged; the polyester factory load rate was 87.01%, up 0.21%; the bottle - chip factory load rate was 71.93%, unchanged; and the load rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 58.02%, unchanged [1]. Production and Sales - On July 22, 2025, the sales rate of polyester filament was 105%, up 55 percentage points; the sales rate of polyester staple fiber was 48%, up 8 percentage points; and the sales rate of polyester chips was 82%, up 11 percentage points [1]. Device Information - Dongying United's 2.5 - million - ton PTA device was under maintenance from June 28 for 40 - 45 days. Yisheng Hainan's 2 - million - ton PTA device is expected to undergo technical transformation for three months starting from August 1 [2]. Important News - Macroeconomic sentiment has pressured oil prices downward. Fitch has downgraded the outlook for some US industries in 2025. PTA will have new device put into production in the third quarter, creating a mismatch with PX. Currently, PX inventory is at a historical low, providing strong support. The future profitability of PX depends on unexpected factors. The unexpected situation of the reforming device has changed the current dull fundamentals, but during the off - season of polyester consumption, there is a strong expectation of a decline in downstream operating rates after the significant drop in PTA processing fees [2]. Summary - PTA futures rose during the day, while the average spot price fell. The anti - involution expectation is favorable for the commodity market, but the crude oil market was weak during the session. PTA supply is sufficient, and the spot basis has weakened. PTA processing fees are in a low - level range, and unplanned device maintenance is difficult to boost prices due to new device production expectations on the supply side and lackluster demand during the off - season. In July, polyester factories actually carried out maintenance, and the operating rate decreased significantly compared to June. The macro - impact on the polyester industry chain has weakened, and it has returned to fundamental drivers. The weakening supply - demand expectation has led to a full - line decline in prices. Entering the off - season of textile and clothing, if polyester deepens production cuts in the future, the industry chain contradictions will intensify, making it more difficult for prices to rise. In terms of industry chain profits, the strong driving force of the cost side has caused the profit distribution pattern of the industry chain to tilt towards raw materials again [2]. Trading Strategy - PTA fluctuated higher, with the TA2509 contract closing at 4,794 yuan per ton (up 0.38%) and an intraday trading volume of 1.08 million lots; PX prices increased, with the PX2509 contract closing at 6,886 yuan per ton (up 0.53%) and an intraday trading volume of 204,600 lots; PR followed the cost trend, with the 2509 contract closing at 5,996 yuan per ton (up 0.33%) and an intraday trading volume of 52,600 lots. In the overnight crude oil market, concerns about potential trade frictions between major oil - consuming countries the US and the EU and the upcoming OPEC production meeting in September led to a third - consecutive - day decline in European and American crude oil futures. The current demand in the polyester industry chain is not optimistic, and it is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will all oscillate [2].

Core Insights - The crude oil market is experiencing upward movement but is facing significant resistance levels, raising questions about the timing for profit-taking [1] Group 1 - The crude oil market is on an upward trend, indicating potential investment opportunities [1] - Key resistance zones are being tested, suggesting a critical point for market participants [1] - The article prompts readers to consider whether it is time to take profits amid the current market conditions [1]

俄罗斯总统普京：将于6月20日与OPEC秘书长讨论原油市场。 ...

Group 1 - Domestic refined oil prices are set to enter a new round of adjustment window [1] - The Bank of Japan will announce its interest rate decision [1] - The Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda will hold a press conference at 14:30 [1] Group 2 - The IEA will release its monthly oil market report at 16:00 [1] - Germany's ZEW economic sentiment index for June will be published at 17:00 [1] - The Eurozone's ZEW economic sentiment index for June will also be released at 17:00 [1] Group 3 - The U.S. will report May retail sales month-on-month and May import price index month-on-month at 20:30 [1] - U.S. industrial production month-on-month for May will be reported at 21:15 [1] - The NAHB housing market index for June and April business inventories month-on-month will be released at 22:00 [1] Group 4 - The Bank of Canada will publish the minutes of its monetary policy meeting the next day [1] - The U.S. API crude oil inventory for the week ending June 13 will be reported at 04:30 the next day [1]

Group 1 - OPEC is set to release its monthly oil market report, which is crucial for understanding global oil supply and demand dynamics [1] - China will publish the monthly residential price report for 70 major cities, providing insights into the real estate market trends [1] - Key economic indicators from China will be released, including the year-on-year growth of retail sales and industrial output for May, which are important for assessing economic health [1] - The New York Fed's manufacturing index for June will be announced, offering a glimpse into the manufacturing sector's performance in the U.S. [1]