Core Viewpoint - The stock of Hu Shang A Yi (02589.HK) has shown significant volatility, with a recent surge of nearly 29% after a period of decline since its listing, indicating a potential recovery phase for the company [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Hu Shang A Yi's stock price rose by 28.96% to HKD 116.9 per share, after peaking at a 35% increase during trading [1] - Since its low point, the stock has rebounded over 45% [1] Group 2: Business Initiatives - The company announced a ten-year H-share incentive plan, with a cap of 5% of total share capital, aimed at incentivizing core talent through restricted stock [3] - A new subsidy policy for franchisees in the tea and coffee sectors has been introduced, offering up to 50,000 yuan for opening new stores [3] - Hu Shang A Yi plans to launch a sub-brand "Tea Waterfall" targeting Gen Z and students, focusing on products priced below 10 yuan, with a promotional campaign featuring celebrity endorsement [3] Group 3: Store Expansion and Challenges - The total number of Hu Shang A Yi stores has reached 10,739, an increase of 1,303 stores from 9,436 in June [3] - Despite the expansion, franchisees are facing profitability challenges, with reported revenue rates of only 50%-60% and some stores operating at a loss even with monthly revenues of 300,000 yuan [3] Group 4: Financial Performance - The gross profit for the first half of 2025 was 572 million yuan, a 10.4% increase from 518 million yuan in the same period last year, with a gross margin of 31.4% [4] - Historical data shows average daily GMV per store was 4,109 yuan in 2022, 4,270 yuan in 2023, and is projected to decline to 3,753 yuan in 2024 [4] Group 5: Industry Context - The challenges faced by Hu Shang A Yi reflect a broader trend in the new tea beverage industry, transitioning from rapid growth to a more refined operational focus [5] - The industry is moving from a "Spring and Autumn" period to a "Warring States" period, with growth rates slowing and increasing competition among leading companies [5] - Revenue growth forecasts for Hu Shang A Yi from 2025 to 2027 are projected at 28%, 19%, and 15%, with net profit growth rates of 46%, 33%, and 17%, indicating a downward trend [5]

Core Viewpoint - The rapid rise and fall of Hu Shang A Yi's stock price post-IPO reflects a significant shift in the new tea beverage industry from aggressive expansion to a more rational approach, highlighting the challenges faced by the company and the sector as a whole [1][2]. Group 1: IPO and Market Reaction - Hu Shang A Yi's IPO was highly successful, with an oversubscription rate of 3616.83 times and over 940 billion HKD in frozen funds, marking it as the highest new stock subscription in Hong Kong after regulatory changes [2]. - On its first trading day, the stock price surged by 74.68% to 197.6 HKD, but subsequently dropped by 8.78% the following day, leading to a cumulative decline of over 20% within a week [1][2]. - By early June, the stock price had fallen to around 125 HKD, representing a nearly 37% decrease from its peak [1]. Group 2: Financial Performance and Challenges - In 2024, Hu Shang A Yi reported a revenue of 3.285 billion HKD, a year-on-year decline of 1.9%, and a net profit of 329 million HKD, down 15.2% [4]. - The company's business model heavily relies on a franchise system, with 99.7% of stores operated by franchisees, leading to a significant drop in single-store GMV from 1.559 million HKD in 2023 to 1.37 million HKD in 2024, a decrease of 12.12% [4][5]. - The closure rate of franchise stores increased to 12.7% in 2024, with over 1,000 stores shutting down, significantly higher than the industry average of 4% [4]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape and Market Dynamics - The new tea beverage industry is experiencing a slowdown, with a projected growth rate of only 8.2% in 2024 and further decline to 7.5% in 2025, leading to intense price wars among leading brands [6]. - Hu Shang A Yi faces challenges in both low-price and mid-to-high-end markets, struggling against competitors like Mi Xue Bing Cheng and Xi Tea, which have established stronger market positions [6]. - The company's reliance on third-party suppliers and inadequate cold chain coverage hinder its ability to reduce costs, making it difficult to compete on price with rivals [5][6]. Group 4: Future Outlook and Strategic Considerations - The company must focus on optimizing its supply chain and digital commitments, potentially allocating 60% of its IPO proceeds to these areas to regain growth momentum [6]. - Reducing food waste to levels comparable to competitors and leveraging scale procurement could help Hu Shang A Yi improve its cost structure and competitive positioning in the market [6].