Core Insights - The recent sharp decline in gold and silver prices is attributed to a combination of easing geopolitical risks, a stronger US dollar, and technical overbought conditions [3][12] - Despite the short-term volatility, the long-term bullish fundamentals for gold remain intact, driven by central bank purchases and a restructuring of the monetary system [9][12] Price Movements - International gold prices fell over 3% (approximately $100), dropping below $4200 per ounce [1] - International silver prices plummeted over 6%, falling below $51 per ounce, marking the largest single-day drop in six months [1] - Domestic gold jewelry prices saw a decrease of 17-28 yuan per gram overnight [1] Market Dynamics - Easing geopolitical tensions, such as the advancement of the Israel-Palestine ceasefire agreement, led to a withdrawal of safe-haven funds from precious metals to riskier assets like stocks [3] - The Federal Reserve's hawkish signals regarding interest rate cuts contributed to a stronger dollar, which negatively impacted dollar-denominated precious metals [3] - Technical factors included record high speculative long positions and algorithmic trading triggering concentrated sell-offs [3] Investment Behavior - High-leverage traders faced significant losses, with some losing over 100,000 yuan in a single day due to 80x leverage positions [4] - Conversely, some investors are seizing the opportunity to buy during the dip, with reports of increased demand for gold bars in Shenzhen [5] Consumer Sentiment - There is a prevalent wait-and-see attitude among consumers, particularly non-wedding-related buyers, who are delaying gold purchases in anticipation of further price declines [6] - Wedding-related consumers are shifting towards bank gold bars as a substitute for high-premium jewelry [6] Future Outlook - Short-term risks include critical support levels for gold at $4200; if breached, prices may drop to $3950-$4020 [7] - Long-term bullish factors include ongoing central bank gold purchases, expectations of future Fed rate cuts, and robust industrial demand for silver [9] Strategic Recommendations - For leveraged traders, it is advised to reduce positions to maintain a safety margin above the margin call threshold [11] - Ordinary investors are encouraged to consider dollar-cost averaging into gold ETFs or bank gold storage, limiting exposure to 10% of liquid assets [11] - Wedding-related buyers should avoid high-premium jewelry and opt for bank gold bars to save on processing fees [11]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report With the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, the macro - sentiment has significantly improved. Meanwhile, the cost support of polypropylene has weakened as the crude oil futures price lacks upward momentum. Given that domestic petrochemical plants have resumed production after maintenance, the supply pressure of polypropylene has increased, and the downstream demand has failed to meet expectations with a sluggish consumer market. In the context of the strong macro - expectation competing with the weak industrial reality, it is expected that the polypropylene futures will maintain a volatile and stable trend in the future [2][8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Factor - The Fed chair Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting sent a dovish signal, which was widely interpreted as a clear sign of an interest rate cut after the September FOMC meeting. After his speech, traders increased their bets on a Fed rate cut in September. According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 8.9%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 91.1%. The increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut has improved the macro - sentiment and boosted the prices of domestic energy and chemical futures to stabilize and strengthen [3]. Cost Factor - Polypropylene's upstream raw materials mainly include coal and crude oil. Although the domestic coal futures price rebounded last Friday night, strengthening the cost support for coal - chemical products, the crude oil futures price lacks the impetus to drive polypropylene prices higher. The geopolitical premium of crude oil has been shrinking due to political efforts to cool down the geopolitical risks in the Russia - Ukraine conflict. Also, the oil market's focus has shifted to the situation of supply - demand surplus, weakening the cost support for polypropylene futures [4]. Supply Factor - Last week, as the maintenance devices of Zhejiang Petrochemical and Guangdong Petrochemical resumed operation, the loss of polypropylene production continued to decline, leading to a slight increase in overall production. As of the week ending August 24, 2025, the average domestic polypropylene capacity utilization rate was 78.22%, a week - on - week increase of 0.31%. The domestic polypropylene production last week was 78.63 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.32 tons (0.41%) and a year - on - year increase of 11.84 tons (17.73%). With the planned restart of Jingbo Polyolefin's double - line this week, the domestic polypropylene production is expected to continue to rise [5]. Demand Factor - In late August, the downstream demand for domestic polypropylene failed to meet expectations, and the consumer market remained sluggish. Non - standard product sales pressure forced enterprises to cut prices to reduce inventory, leading to a weak decline in polypropylene prices. The average operating rates of most domestic polypropylene downstream industries showed an upward trend, except for BOPP and PP pipes, which declined, and modified PP, which remained stable. The BOPP industry's overall orders trended upward, but some enterprises stopped production due to insufficient orders, resulting in a decline in the industry's operating rate. For PP pipes, without policy support, the market trading atmosphere was poor, and the demand was limited, causing the industry's operating rate to decline [6].