——国内短剧更新 传媒 证券研究报告/行业点评报告 2025 年 08 月 15 日 | 评级： | 增持（维持） | | 重点公司基本状况 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 简称 | 股价 | | | EPS | | | | | PE | | | 评级 | | 分析师：康雅雯 | | | | （元） | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | | 执业证书编号：S0740515080001 | | | 中文在线 掌阅科技 | 25.45 20.43 | 0.12 0.08 | -0.33 0.11 | 0.05 - | 0.09 - | 0.22 - | 207.76 257.30 | -76.47 181.92 | 565.56 - | 282.78 - | ...

Core Insights - The short drama market in China is rapidly expanding, with annual production reaching 40,000 episodes and revenue for producers hitting 12 billion yuan, narrowing the gap with traditional long dramas which generate 31 billion yuan [1] - The market size for short dramas is projected to soar to 50.4 billion yuan in 2024, with user numbers surpassing 660 million, indicating a significant growth opportunity [3] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The emergence of hit short dramas through seasonal releases has maintained user engagement, with total viewing time sometimes exceeding that of long dramas [3] - User behavior shows that traditional horizontal dramas reach 77% of users, while vertical short dramas reach 61%, with 38% of users switching between formats, creating a unique "dual-ecology" [3][33] - The competition among over 10 platforms in the short drama space is intensifying, with various strategies being employed to capture market share [3] Group 2: Key Players and Strategies - The short drama landscape is categorized into four main factions: - "Web Literature Platform Faction" includes players like Hongguo, Hema, and Qimao, leveraging IP resources for content creation [6][8] - "Video Platform Faction" consists of Douyin, Kuaishou, and Tencent Video, focusing on video content and user engagement [12][14] - "Vertical Ecology Faction" includes Xiaohongshu and Bilibili, targeting niche audiences with tailored content [16] - "E-commerce Cross-border Faction" features platforms like Taobao and Meituan, integrating content with commercial strategies [18] - Hongguo is currently leading the market with 173 million monthly active users, supported by its parent company ByteDance's resources [10] Group 3: Trends and Future Directions - The industry is shifting towards "cooperation for mutual benefit," with major platforms collaborating to enhance content quality and production efficiency [20][21] - Content quality is being prioritized, with platforms like Tencent Video and iQIYI investing in high-quality short dramas and classic IP adaptations [22][25] - User acquisition strategies are evolving, focusing on building strong community ties and targeting high-value user segments [27][30] Group 4: Business Model Evolution - The short drama industry is witnessing a transition from reliance on user payments to a mixed monetization model combining advertising and user payments, indicating a shift in revenue generation strategies [31][33] - The relationship between horizontal and vertical dramas is becoming complementary, with both formats coexisting and appealing to different audience preferences [33][34]