——国内短剧更新 传媒 证券研究报告/行业点评报告 2025 年 08 月 15 日 | 评级： | 增持（维持） | | 重点公司基本状况 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 简称 | 股价 | | | EPS | | | | | PE | | | 评级 | | 分析师：康雅雯 | | | | （元） | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | | 执业证书编号：S0740515080001 | | | 中文在线 掌阅科技 | 25.45 20.43 | 0.12 0.08 | -0.33 0.11 | 0.05 - | 0.09 - | 0.22 - | 207.76 257.30 | -76.47 181.92 | 565.56 - | 282.78 - | ...

Core Insights - The report highlights that the short drama market in China is entering a critical period of quality and efficiency improvement, with a market size projected to reach 50.4 billion yuan and a user base of 660 million by 2024, making it an essential part of mass entertainment consumption [1][8][15] - The user demographic is balanced across age groups, with users under and over 40 years old each accounting for approximately 50% of the audience, and the primary audience coming from third-tier cities and below, showcasing cultural penetration across generations and regions [1][8][15] Market Growth and User Engagement - The user base for short dramas is expected to grow significantly, with a half-year growth rate of 14.8% in 2024, and over 70% of users developing regular viewing habits, indicating high user engagement [1][2][15] - Daily viewing is reported at 36.19%, while 38.15% of users watch multiple times a week, reflecting strong user stickiness [1][2][18] Content Production and Trends - The supply side of short dramas is performing well, with over 53,000 new dramas uploaded by February 2025, and a 61-fold increase in authors contributing to IAP+IAA [2][11] - Urban themes dominate the content landscape, with romance remaining central and fantasy genres experiencing a growth rate of 325%. Original content accounts for 100%, with 378 dramas exceeding 100 million views, demonstrating robust content production capabilities [2][11] Commercial Value and Advertising Growth - The dual-driven model of IAP+IAA has shown significant results, with advertising consumption in Q4 2024 increasing by 300%, and peak advertising consumption during holidays, such as over 30 million yuan during the 2025 Spring Festival [2][11] - Many brands are entering the market through customized short dramas and product placements, with a growth rate of 365% in commercial cooperation projects, indicating deep integration of content and commerce [2][11] Technological Innovation and Future Directions - The industry is transitioning from extensive development to a focus on quality, with technological innovation as a core driver. Kuaishou is leading the "short drama + AI" initiative, utilizing its self-developed AI model, Keling AI, to enhance production efficiency and expand genre boundaries [1][2][8] - Future plans include increasing investment in AIGC (AI-Generated Content) and deepening cross-industry collaborations with film, gaming, and other sectors to promote a diversified and high-quality short drama ecosystem [2][11][56]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that Kuaishou's daily active users are projected to exceed 300 million by July 2024, with heavy user growth of 55.3% year-on-year and an average daily viewing time increase of 44% [1] - The number of paid users is expected to increase fourfold from January to December 2024, with a concentration of users in cities like Tianjin, Harbin, and Shijiazhuang [1] - The user demographic for Kuaishou short dramas is predominantly middle-aged men, with 51.8% of users being Kuaishou Xingmang short drama users and 59.5% being over 30 years old [3] Group 2 - Among in-app purchase (IAP) users, the male-to-female ratio is 62% to 38%, with 69.4% of users being under 40 years old; for in-app advertising (IAA) users, the ratio is 46.3% to 53.7%, with 54% being over 40 years old, indicating a trend towards older female users [5] - By February 2025, Kuaishou's short drama content consumption center has uploaded over 53,000 new dramas, with the number of IAP and IAA authors increasing 61 times year-on-year [8] - The report identifies eight mainstream themes for Kuaishou Xingmang short dramas in 2024, with urban themes seeing an 18 percentage point increase year-on-year, while romance themes decreased from 34.76% to 24.24%; fantasy themes experienced a significant growth of 325% [11]

Core Viewpoint - The essence of business remains the connection between people, and understanding user needs and insights is crucial for growth, especially in the AI era [2][5][15]. Group 1: AI and Growth - The arrival of AI has changed growth logic, but the fundamental principle of understanding user needs remains unchanged [6][7]. - AI can empower businesses by providing real incremental value and improving efficiency in user acquisition and retention [6][7][49]. - Companies that focus on unmet user needs can discover significant growth opportunities, as demonstrated by the AI PPT case targeting mothers [10][14]. Group 2: User Insights and Metrics - Establishing the right North Star metric is essential for guiding growth strategies, as seen in Meituan's shift from GMV to order volume [18][19]. - Metrics should be based on user insights and can evolve with the product lifecycle, ensuring alignment with user needs and market conditions [20][21][27]. - The importance of understanding why users leave is emphasized, as it can be more critical than knowing why they stay [55][51]. Group 3: Data Analysis and Strategy - A systematic approach to data analysis is necessary for effective decision-making, allowing for detailed breakdowns of performance metrics [31][32]. - Companies should focus on user behavior and preferences to refine their strategies, ensuring that insights are actionable and relevant [36][38]. - AI can assist in data processing and user research, enhancing productivity and decision-making capabilities [40][52]. Group 4: Retention and Recall Strategies - Retaining users requires a deep understanding of their needs and behaviors, with AI models helping to identify key factors influencing user retention [49][51]. - The ability to recall users hinges on understanding the reasons for their departure, which can be influenced by various factors, including geographic and economic indicators [51][52]. - Companies must balance short-term gains with long-term user value to ensure sustainable growth [22][30]. Group 5: Challenges in AI Growth - Despite the potential of AI, challenges remain in achieving high retention rates and effective monetization strategies [56][57]. - The industry is evolving, with domestic companies leading in growth strategies, indicating a shift in knowledge exchange between international markets [57].