毛利率相对平稳，费用率上升，净利率有较大幅度下降 Q2 毛利率同比-0.4pct 至73.3%、相对平稳，销售费用率同比+2.3pct，拆分细项看，主要是收入下滑的 同时广告费用和人员费用相对刚性导致费用率提升，管理费用率/财务费用率分别+4.2pct/+0.9pct。Q2 归母净利率同比-9.6pct 至18.9%。 风险提示：宏观经济波动致使需求下滑，省外扩张不及预期等。 中高档产品受需求下滑影响较大，省外下滑大于省内 分产品看，上半年中高档酒实现收入126.7 亿，同比下滑36.5%，普通酒实现收入18.4 亿，同比下滑 27.2%，中高档是公司主力产品海天梦系列，受需求下降影响较大。分区域上半年省内营收71.2 亿，同 比下滑25.8%，省外营收73.9 亿，同比下滑42.7%，省外下滑幅度明显，一方面是需求环境影响，另一 方面，公司过去全国化较早，基数高，近年来被多个同价格带竞品转化了公司较多份额。 合同负债环比回落，Q2 销售收现下滑幅度与收入匹配 2025H1 末合同负债58.8 亿，同比增加19.4 亿元，环比下降11.5 亿元。Q2 销售收现25.7 亿元、同比下滑 48%，考虑合同负债确认 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is actively reducing inventory and is expected to see operational improvements in the future. Despite significant revenue and profit declines in the first half of 2025, the company's brand strength and consumer base remain intact, making future reforms promising [5][6] Financial Performance Summary - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 14.796 billion, a year-on-year decline of 35.32%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.344 billion, down 45.34%. Q2 revenue was 3.729 billion, down 43.67%, with net profit of 707 million, a decline of 62.66% [5] - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025-2026, now expecting net profits of 4.763 billion (-57.6%), 4.907 billion (-61.8%), and 5.159 billion for 2027, with year-on-year changes of -28.6%, +3.0%, and +5.1% respectively [5] - The current stock price corresponds to P/E ratios of 22.8, 22.2, and 21.1 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5] Product and Regional Performance - The mid-to-high-end product segment saw a revenue decline of 36.5% to 12.67 billion, while ordinary liquor revenue fell by 27.2% to 1.84 billion. The decline in the mid-to-high-end segment is attributed to decreased demand for the company's main product line [6] - Revenue from the domestic market was 7.12 billion, down 25.8%, while revenue from outside the province was 7.39 billion, down 42.7%, indicating a more significant decline in external markets [6] Contract Liabilities and Cash Flow - As of the end of H1 2025, contract liabilities stood at 5.88 billion, an increase of 1.94 billion year-on-year but a decrease of 1.15 billion quarter-on-quarter. Q2 sales cash receipts were 2.57 billion, down 48%, aligning with revenue trends [7] Profitability Metrics - Q2 gross margin was relatively stable at 73.3%, down 0.4 percentage points year-on-year. However, the sales expense ratio increased by 2.3 percentage points due to fixed advertising and personnel costs amid declining revenue. The net profit margin fell significantly by 9.6 percentage points to 18.9% [8] - The company’s gross margin is projected to remain around 73% for the next few years, with net margins expected to recover slightly by 2027 [10]