白酒周期：底部信号与投资节奏 20250923 摘要 白酒行业自 2022 年起连续每年下一个台阶，至今年（2025 年）5 月底禁酒令 出台后，行业又经历了一轮严厉的压力测试。上一轮周期底部时，每个季度市 场预期变化显著，2012 年底颁布规定加严，三公消费执行加严后，2013 年断 崖式下跌。2014-2016 年间行业逐步出清。在当前时点，我们通过复盘前一 轮周期对比发现白酒连续从 2022 年开始，每年下降一个台阶，到 2025 年的 阶段。 如何判断白酒行业是否已经触底？ 判断白酒行业是否触底需要观察几个前瞻信号。首先是资本市场股价见底的时 间点，这往往早于基本面见底。例如上一轮周期中，在企业开始出清时资本市 场股价已见底。此外，还需关注负反馈向正反馈转变的信号，如库存出清、需 求拉动等关键节点。例如上一轮周期中，2014 年的供给侧减压和 2015 年的 库存出清都是重要信号。 在当前白酒深度调整的底部区间，应如何选择股票？ 在当前深度调整的底部区间选择股票应考虑几个方面：首先是龙头企业定调， 例如茅台在 14-16 年的低个位数增长目标；其次是企业现金流情况，例如 12 年底现金流恶化；再次是批 ...

Group 1: Company Overview - The main business revenue comes from the production and sales of bulldozers, excavators, loaders, road rollers, graders, pavers, milling machines, concrete machinery, and core components like track chassis and transmission parts [2]. - The sales model includes a combination of agency distribution for main products and a mix of supply and agency sales for parts, along with expanding into operational leasing services [2]. Group 2: Excavator Business Development - The excavator market has seen significant growth in the first half of the year due to a combination of policy stimulation, infrastructure resilience, and inventory clearance [3]. - The company completed a strategic merger with Shandong Heavy Industry in December 2024, enhancing resource integration in R&D, manufacturing, sales, and service for excavators [3]. - The product range for excavators spans from 1.5 tons to 200 tons, achieving a market coverage rate of over 98%, with industry-leading technology in electronic control systems, noise reduction, and energy efficiency [3]. Group 3: H-Share Issuance - In July 2025, the company’s board approved the issuance of H shares and listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [4]. - The company received approval from its controlling shareholder for the H share issuance and submitted the application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on August 28, 2025 [4]. - The proposed issuance will not exceed 15% of the total share capital post-issuance, amounting to a maximum of 264,731,100 shares, with pricing determined through market-based methods [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is actively reducing inventory and is expected to see operational improvements in the future. Despite significant revenue and profit declines in the first half of 2025, the company's brand strength and consumer base remain intact, making future reforms promising [5][6] Financial Performance Summary - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 14.796 billion, a year-on-year decline of 35.32%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.344 billion, down 45.34%. Q2 revenue was 3.729 billion, down 43.67%, with net profit of 707 million, a decline of 62.66% [5] - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025-2026, now expecting net profits of 4.763 billion (-57.6%), 4.907 billion (-61.8%), and 5.159 billion for 2027, with year-on-year changes of -28.6%, +3.0%, and +5.1% respectively [5] - The current stock price corresponds to P/E ratios of 22.8, 22.2, and 21.1 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5] Product and Regional Performance - The mid-to-high-end product segment saw a revenue decline of 36.5% to 12.67 billion, while ordinary liquor revenue fell by 27.2% to 1.84 billion. The decline in the mid-to-high-end segment is attributed to decreased demand for the company's main product line [6] - Revenue from the domestic market was 7.12 billion, down 25.8%, while revenue from outside the province was 7.39 billion, down 42.7%, indicating a more significant decline in external markets [6] Contract Liabilities and Cash Flow - As of the end of H1 2025, contract liabilities stood at 5.88 billion, an increase of 1.94 billion year-on-year but a decrease of 1.15 billion quarter-on-quarter. Q2 sales cash receipts were 2.57 billion, down 48%, aligning with revenue trends [7] Profitability Metrics - Q2 gross margin was relatively stable at 73.3%, down 0.4 percentage points year-on-year. However, the sales expense ratio increased by 2.3 percentage points due to fixed advertising and personnel costs amid declining revenue. The net profit margin fell significantly by 9.6 percentage points to 18.9% [8] - The company’s gross margin is projected to remain around 73% for the next few years, with net margins expected to recover slightly by 2027 [10]

Core Viewpoint - STMicroelectronics (STM) reported a significant operating loss of over $100 million in Q2 2025, primarily due to restructuring costs and excess inventory in the MCU segment, although a recovery cycle for MCU and analog chips is anticipated soon [1][3][8]. Financial Performance - Q2 revenue for STM was approximately $2.76 billion, exceeding initial targets and reflecting a 10% quarter-over-quarter increase [3]. - The company recorded an operating loss of about $133 million, contrasting with a profit of $375 million in the same quarter last year [3]. - Cash flow from operating activities was $354 million, down from $702 million year-over-year [2]. Product Segment Performance - Revenue from the APMS product segment was approximately $1.58 billion, a year-over-year decline of 17.4% but a quarter-over-quarter increase of 7.8% [2]. - The MCU product segment generated about $1.18 billion, down 10.1% year-over-year but up 13% quarter-over-quarter [2]. Market Outlook - STM's management expects Q3 revenue to be around $3.17 billion, indicating a potential 15% quarter-over-quarter growth, surpassing analyst expectations [3][8]. - The MCU market is currently facing challenges, particularly in automotive applications, with demand remaining weak and inventory levels high [5][7]. Industry Context - The global MCU market is dominated by STM, NXP, Infineon, Renesas, and Microchip, collectively holding over 80% market share [4]. - The semiconductor industry is projected to recover, with WSTS forecasting an 8.5% growth in the global semiconductor market by 2026, driven by various chip categories including analog and MCU [12].