丨证券研究报告丨 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 李锦 罗祎 公司研究丨点评报告丨上海家化（600315.SH） [Table_Title] 上海家化2025 年中报点评：改革成果逐步落地， 下半年上新值得期待 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 自 2024 年下半年起，公司完成四大核心任务：定方向、明治理、提士气、清包袱，过去两次 大促逐步迎来局部产品和品牌成效兑现，下半年新品上新和品宣强化值得期待。 SAC：S0490514080004 SAC：S0490520080019 SFC：BUV258 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 上海家化（600315.SH） cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title 上海家化 2025 2] 年中报点评：改革成果逐步落 地，下半年上新值得期待 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 2025H1，公司实现营业收入 34.78 亿元，同比增长 5%，实现归母净利润 2.66 亿元，同比增 长 12%，实现扣非净利润 2.21 亿元，同比下滑 6%。 2025Q2，公司实现营业收 ...

Core Insights - Activist investor Elliott Management has invested $4 billion in PepsiCo and proposed a reform plan to the board, suggesting the evaluation of core business refranchising, divestiture of non-core assets, and streamlining the product portfolio [1] - Elliott believes that through these reforms, PepsiCo's stock price has the potential to increase by at least 50% [1] - PepsiCo's soda sales in the U.S. have dropped to fourth place, and the food business is under pressure, leading to a decline in the company's market value from its peak [1] Company Response - PepsiCo has stated that it will evaluate Elliott's views and engage in constructive communication with its shareholders while expressing confidence in its existing sustainable growth strategy [1] - Since the CEO took office, PepsiCo has implemented several measures, including cost-cutting, logistics integration, marketing expenditure assessment, and a relaunch of core brands, expecting a rebound in weak North American demand as strategic adjustments take effect [1]

Core Viewpoint - Elliott Investment Management has acquired approximately $4 billion in shares of PepsiCo and plans to advocate for changes within the struggling beverage manufacturer [1] Group 1: Investment and Shareholder Engagement - Elliott's stake makes it one of PepsiCo's largest investors [1] - PepsiCo stated it will evaluate Elliott's views in conjunction with its growth strategy aimed at accelerating growth and creating long-term shareholder value [1] Group 2: Market Challenges - PepsiCo is facing challenges due to competitive pressures and changing consumer tastes, with its market value declining over 20% since its peak in May 2023 [1] - Elliott outlined a reform plan for PepsiCo, which may include restructuring its beverage division and reassessing its snack product portfolio [1] Group 3: Performance Concerns - The market share of PepsiCo's beverage division, which includes brands like Coca-Cola, Gatorade, and Mountain Dew, has been declining and has underperformed for over a decade [1] - Following the announcement, PepsiCo's stock price increased by 2.2% [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company is currently undergoing a period of reform, which is causing some pain in its operations. However, there are expectations for revenue improvement in the coming years [5][7] - In Q2 2025, the company experienced marginal revenue improvement due to a low base effect, despite overall revenue pressure [5][6] - The gross margin improved significantly due to cost benefits from lower raw material prices, although profit margins were under pressure due to ongoing reforms [6][7] Financial Performance Summary - For H1 2025, the company reported revenue of 2.13 billion yuan (down 19% YoY) and a net profit of 260 million yuan (down 27% YoY) [9] - In Q2 2025, revenue was 1.03 billion yuan (down 9% YoY) with a net profit of 76 million yuan (down 32% YoY) [9] - The company’s gross margin for Q2 2025 was 39.4%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.2 percentage points, primarily due to lower raw material costs [6][9] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 5.04 billion, 5.50 billion, and 6.03 billion yuan respectively, with expected net profits of 715 million, 854 million, and 965 million yuan [7][10] Product and Regional Performance - In Q2 2025, revenue from soy sauce increased by 6.4% YoY, while chicken essence and cooking oil saw declines of 13.7% and 48.8% respectively [9] - Revenue performance varied by region, with East and North regions showing improvements of 1.1% and 6.8% YoY, while the South region declined by 12.4% [9]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a solid performance in H1 2025, with revenue and net profit showing year-on-year growth, although Q2 faced challenges due to weak consumer demand. The company remains committed to strengthening its core business and improving profitability through ongoing reforms [1][2]. Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 1.13 billion, net profit of 110 million, and net profit excluding non-recurring items of 100 million, representing year-on-year increases of 12.0%, 18.1%, and 22.8% respectively [1]. - Q2 2025 saw revenue of 500 million, net profit of 50 million, and net profit excluding non-recurring items of 50 million, with year-on-year changes of -8.2%, +40.6%, and +43.9% respectively [1]. - The revenue performance in Q2 was primarily affected by subdued consumer demand, while new product categories like复调 outperformed traditional categories [1][2]. Product and Channel Analysis - In H1 2025, revenue from various product categories was as follows: vinegar 740 million, liquor 150 million, sauce 80 million, and other products 150 million, with year-on-year changes of +8.0%, -5.4%, -3.5%, and +176.6% respectively [2]. - For Q2 2025, revenue from vinegar, liquor, and sauce was 370 million, 60 million, and 40 million, showing year-on-year declines of -1.0%, -18.9%, and -29.0% respectively [2]. - Online and offline channel revenues in H1 2025 were 80 million and 420 million, with year-on-year changes of +18.7% and -12.1% [2]. Profitability and Cost Structure - The company's gross margin in H1 2025 was 38.4%, an increase of 1.9 percentage points year-on-year, with Q2 gross margin reaching 42.1%, up 9.6 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - In H1 2025, the sales and management expense ratios were 18.1% and 4.2%, reflecting year-on-year changes of +1.5 and -1.0 percentage points respectively [3]. - The net profit margin for H1 2025 was 9.8%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points year-on-year, while Q2 net profit margin was 10.8%, up 3.8 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Future Outlook and Valuation - The company is optimistic about the long-term impact of management reforms and maintains its earnings forecasts for 2025-2027, projecting EPS of 0.18, 0.20, and 0.21 respectively [4]. - The target price for 2025 is set at 10.44, based on a PE ratio of 58x, reflecting an increase from the previous target of 9.36 [4].

Core Viewpoint - The company is experiencing operational pressure due to weak demand and intense competition, but there are expectations for improvement in the future [1] Investment Highlights - The investment recommendation is to maintain a "Buy" rating, with projected EPS for 2025-2027 at 0.9, 1.12, and 1.17 yuan respectively. The company is undergoing a reform process and is expected to achieve both organic and external growth, with a target price of 22.5 yuan per share based on a 25x PE for 2025 [2] - In Q2 2025, the company's main business revenue decline narrowed to single digits, with revenue of 1.03 billion yuan, down 9.11% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to the parent company at 76 million yuan, down 31.57% year-on-year. The main seasoning products saw a revenue of 1.992 billion yuan in H1 2025, down 18.39% year-on-year, with Q2 revenue at 966 million yuan, down 3.29% year-on-year, indicating a slowdown in the decline compared to Q1 [2][3] - The sales expense ratio significantly increased in Q2 2025, with a gross margin increase of 3.22 percentage points to 39.39%, primarily due to cost reductions. The sales expense ratio was 18.88%, up 4.05 percentage points, likely due to significant increases in employee compensation and advertising expenses [2] Financial Metrics - In Q2 2025, management, R&D, and financial expense ratios increased by 0.37, 0.04, and -0.18 percentage points to 8.12%, 3.74%, and 0.05% respectively. Despite the increase in gross margin, the significant rise in sales expense ratio led to a decrease in net profit margin attributable to the parent company by 1.03 percentage points to 8.03% [3] - The revenue growth rate for soy sauce turned positive in Q2 2025. The revenue and growth rates for various products in H1 2025 were as follows: soy sauce at 1.298 billion yuan, down 16.68% (Q1: -31.57%, Q2: +6.39%), chicken essence and powder at 255 million yuan, down 21.98% (Q1: -28.6%, Q2: -13.73%), cooking oil at 109 million yuan, down 49.39% (Q1: -50.01%, Q2: -48.84%), and other products at 331 million yuan, down 3.23% (Q1: -6.89%, Q2: +2.84%) [3] Regional Performance - The southern main sales area remains significantly pressured. Revenue and growth rates by region in H1 2025 were as follows: Eastern region at 436 million yuan, down 28.64% (Q1: -47.71%, Q2: +1.11%), Southern region at 808 million yuan, down 16.29% (Q1: -19.63%, Q2: -12.36%), Central and Western region at 434 million yuan, down 16.12% (Q1: -29.05%, Q2: +5.61%), and Northern region at 316 million yuan, down 9.64% (Q1: -18.72%, Q2: +6.79%) [4] - The number of distributors increased by 245 to 2,799, with further channel penetration, achieving a county development rate of 86% and a prefecture-level city development rate of 97.9% [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is actively reducing inventory and is expected to see operational improvements in the future. Despite significant revenue and profit declines in the first half of 2025, the company's brand strength and consumer base remain intact, making future reforms promising [5][6] Financial Performance Summary - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 14.796 billion, a year-on-year decline of 35.32%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.344 billion, down 45.34%. Q2 revenue was 3.729 billion, down 43.67%, with net profit of 707 million, a decline of 62.66% [5] - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025-2026, now expecting net profits of 4.763 billion (-57.6%), 4.907 billion (-61.8%), and 5.159 billion for 2027, with year-on-year changes of -28.6%, +3.0%, and +5.1% respectively [5] - The current stock price corresponds to P/E ratios of 22.8, 22.2, and 21.1 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5] Product and Regional Performance - The mid-to-high-end product segment saw a revenue decline of 36.5% to 12.67 billion, while ordinary liquor revenue fell by 27.2% to 1.84 billion. The decline in the mid-to-high-end segment is attributed to decreased demand for the company's main product line [6] - Revenue from the domestic market was 7.12 billion, down 25.8%, while revenue from outside the province was 7.39 billion, down 42.7%, indicating a more significant decline in external markets [6] Contract Liabilities and Cash Flow - As of the end of H1 2025, contract liabilities stood at 5.88 billion, an increase of 1.94 billion year-on-year but a decrease of 1.15 billion quarter-on-quarter. Q2 sales cash receipts were 2.57 billion, down 48%, aligning with revenue trends [7] Profitability Metrics - Q2 gross margin was relatively stable at 73.3%, down 0.4 percentage points year-on-year. However, the sales expense ratio increased by 2.3 percentage points due to fixed advertising and personnel costs amid declining revenue. The net profit margin fell significantly by 9.6 percentage points to 18.9% [8] - The company’s gross margin is projected to remain around 73% for the next few years, with net margins expected to recover slightly by 2027 [10]

（文章来源：第一财经） 据外媒报道，淡马锡考虑进行重大改革以提高回报。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Yanghe Brewery's net profit attributable to shareholders for H1 2025 is projected to be 4.344 billion yuan, representing a 45% decrease year-on-year, with Q2 net profit at 707 million yuan, down 63% year-on-year [1] Financial Performance - For H1 2025, the company's revenue from domestic and external markets is 7.121 billion yuan and 7.392 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a decrease of 26% and 43% year-on-year [1] - The company has seen a faster pace of inventory destocking in the domestic market compared to the external market, leading to better performance domestically [1] Strategic Adjustments - The company is entering a deep reform phase, actively adjusting its growth strategy by slowing down operations [1] - Recent management changes have been implemented, and the company plans to continue controlling inventory and stabilizing prices to alleviate channel pressures [1] Future Outlook - The company is expected to gradually release positive results from its reforms, supported by brand strength [1] - Earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2025-2027 are 2.42 yuan, 2.60 yuan, and 2.89 yuan respectively, with current stock prices corresponding to price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 31, 28, and 26 times [1]

Core Insights - Wahaha has eliminated distributors with annual sales below 3 million, leading to disputes over payments as some have been integrated into larger distributors [1] - The company claims that the changes in its distributor system are part of a normal dynamic optimization based on market strategy and cooperation willingness, rather than targeting specific scale customers [1] Group 1: Leadership Changes - Zong Fuli officially took over 29.40% of Wahaha Group's shares and became the chairperson of the company in August 2024 [2] - Zong Fuli is described as a workaholic and strong leader, implementing a series of aggressive reform measures since her takeover [2] Group 2: Distributor and Management Reforms - The distributor contracts have been transferred to Hongsheng Beverage, controlled by Zong Fuli, with adjustments in partnerships for various regions including Tibet and Qinghai [2] - A significant restructuring of the core management team has occurred, with many departments merged or eliminated, and employee contracts transferred to Hongsheng Beverage [2] - Wahaha views the complaints arising from the transfer of employee contracts as a "short-term pain" associated with internal compliance reforms [2]