Core Viewpoint - The chairman of the company addressed concerns regarding his annual salary of 4.35 million yuan, suggesting that if the public believes he should receive only 50,000 yuan, he is open to that adjustment [1] Group 1 - The chairman's current salary is 4.35 million yuan, which has raised questions among stakeholders [1] - The chairman expressed willingness to reform his salary based on public opinion, indicating a responsive leadership style [1]

记者丨 贺泓源 编辑丨高梦阳 雀巢正在经历一场自上而下的大改革。 2025年12月1日，雀巢中国向21世纪经济报道记者确认， 惠氏营养品业务和雀巢婴儿营养品业 务两大业务单元将于2026年1月1日起正式合并，成立雀巢营养品业务 。谢国耀（Joel Seah） 将成为该业务的负责人。 对此，雀巢大中华区董事长兼首席执行官马凯思向员工表示："这不是倒退，而是为了一个更 加美好的开篇。" "婴儿营养始终是我们的核心业务，我们将继续加大对品牌和渠道的投资。在业务调整过程 中，公司严格依法合规执行。调整不影响现有业务开展，惠氏营养品（中国）有限公司和惠氏 （上海）贸易有限公司将继续运行，惠氏启赋、S-26等品牌将继续服务中国消费者。"雀巢方 面如此向21世纪经济报道记者回应称。 | | 集团 | 美洲 | 亚洲、大洋洲 | 欧洲 | 発菓 | 奈斯 | 雀巢水和 | 真他 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 总计 | 大区 | 和非洲大区 | 大区 | 健康科学 | 派索 | 高端饮料业务 | 业务 | | 2025年前九个月销售额 ...

Core Viewpoint - Allianz Investment emphasizes that Asian markets, particularly the Chinese stock market, are key diversification choices for investors who are currently overexposed to US equities [1][4]. Group 1: US Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - Allianz's Chief Investment Officer for Fixed Income, Zeng Zheng, predicts further interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve, with a terminal rate of around 3.5% by mid-2026 [2]. - Zeng notes that the likelihood of the Fed choosing to cut rates is greater than maintaining the current rates, although the exact timing remains uncertain [2]. - Fixed income is highlighted as a core tool for capital preservation amid macroeconomic volatility, with a shift in return drivers expected from credit spreads to interest rate spreads by 2026 [2][3]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities in Asia - Zeng Yonghui, Chief Investment Officer for Asia Pacific equities, points out that many investors are overly concentrated in US stocks, particularly in large tech sectors, and are now reallocating to Asian assets [4]. - The current low allocation of global investors to Asian stocks presents a significant opportunity, especially as Asian stocks have a low correlation with US stocks [4]. - Four key themes driving investment opportunities in Asian stocks include innovation in technology, corporate reforms in major Asian economies, supply chain diversification, and emerging consumer trends [5]. Group 3: China's Economic Strategy - Allianz's Senior Economist, Tang Jicheng, identifies two main focuses of China's economic strategy: continued investment in advanced manufacturing and boosting domestic consumption [7]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" outlines five strategic areas for attention, including modern industrial systems, technological breakthroughs, a unified domestic market, human-centered urbanization, and international cooperation [8]. Group 4: Multi-Asset Investment Strategies - Allianz's Head of Growth Multi-Asset, Hartwig Kos, notes that risk assets remain attractive, with a shift towards more diversified global allocations beyond US equities [10]. - The traditional "60/40" stock-bond portfolio remains viable, but flexibility and inclusion of non-core risk exposures like emerging market bonds and gold are essential for resilience [10]. - Gold is reaffirmed as a strategic asset, increasingly driven by geopolitical uncertainties and de-dollarization, making it a crucial component of a diversified investment portfolio [10]. Group 5: Sustainable Investment Trends - Allianz's Head of Sustainable and Impact Investing, Matt Christensen, indicates that sustainable investment regulation is entering a new phase, with a shift from mere disclosure to clearer product classifications in the EU [11]. - Impact investing is maturing, with growing recognition of achieving market-level returns, particularly in private markets, supported by clearer standards for outcomes and reporting [12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the company with a target price of 11 yuan [1]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 630 million yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a decrease of 22.1% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was -100 million yuan, remaining stable compared to the same period last year. In Q3 alone, revenue was 140 million yuan, an increase of 3.7% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to shareholders was -30 million yuan, an improvement from -110 million yuan in the same period last year [1][5]. - The report highlights that the company is undergoing a phase of adjustment and reform, with signs of operational bottoming out. The revenue growth in Q3 indicates a potential recovery, particularly in the domestic market, despite ongoing competitive pressures [5][6]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue and Profitability**: The total revenue for 2024 is projected at 925 million yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 37.0%. The net profit is expected to be -258 million yuan, reflecting a significant drop of 1,067.2% year-on-year. By 2027, the company is projected to achieve a net profit of 235 million yuan, with a growth rate of 909.9% [1][12]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: The EPS is forecasted to be -0.39 yuan in 2024, improving to 0.36 yuan by 2027 [1][12]. - **Valuation Ratios**: The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to be -26 in 2024, -50 in 2025, and 29 in 2027, indicating a significant turnaround anticipated in the company's profitability [1][12]. Market and Product Performance - **Product Segmentation**: In Q3, the high-end, mid-range, and low-end products generated revenues of 10 million, 20 million, and 80 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 30.4%, -43.7%, and 32.4% [5][6]. - **Sales Channels**: Direct sales revenue increased by 28.6%, while wholesale revenue grew by 7.3%, indicating a stabilization in channel performance [5][6]. - **Regional Performance**: Domestic revenue grew by 22.0% in Q3, while revenue from outside the province decreased by 32.0%, highlighting the challenges faced in external markets [5][6].

Core Viewpoint - Nestlé is undergoing significant restructuring under the new CEO Philipp Navratil, which includes a plan to cut approximately 16,000 jobs globally over the next two years to enhance efficiency and reduce costs [1][5]. Group 1: Job Cuts and Cost Savings - The job cuts will involve around 12,000 white-collar positions across all functions and regions, with an expected annual savings of 1 billion Swiss francs by 2027, doubling the initial target of 500 million Swiss francs [1]. - An additional 4,000 positions will be eliminated through productivity improvements in production and supply chain [1]. - The total cost-saving target for the "Growth Support" initiative has been raised from 2.5 billion Swiss francs to 3 billion Swiss francs by 2027 [1]. Group 2: Financial Performance - In the first nine months of the year, Nestlé's total sales amounted to 65.9 billion Swiss francs, a year-on-year decline of 1.9% [3]. - The organic growth rate was reported at 3.3%, with all regions and global direct businesses achieving positive growth [3]. - The actual internal growth rate increased to 0.6%, while pricing contribution remained stable at 2.8% [3]. Group 3: Regional Performance - The Greater China region has been a significant drag on Nestlé's performance, with an organic growth rate of -10.4% in the third quarter, continuing a downward trend [4]. - Excluding Greater China, the organic growth rate for Asia, Oceania, and Africa was 5.3%, with a pricing contribution of 4.0% [4]. - The new leadership is focusing on reducing excess inventory in Greater China and shifting the organizational focus towards demand creation [4][6]. Group 4: Leadership Changes - Philipp Navratil was appointed as the new CEO on September 1, succeeding Laurent Freixe, who was dismissed [5]. - The board also announced Pablo Isla as the new chairman, effective October 1, following Paul Bulcke's early resignation [5]. - The new management team is expected to drive significant changes, with a focus on performance-oriented culture and resource allocation towards high-potential opportunities [5][6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [8]. Core Insights - The company has completed four core tasks since the second half of 2024: defining direction, clarifying governance, boosting morale, and eliminating burdens. The results of past promotions are beginning to show in specific products and brands, and the upcoming new product launches and brand promotions are highly anticipated [2][10]. - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 3.478 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 266 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12%. However, the net profit excluding non-recurring items decreased by 6% to 221 million yuan [6][10]. - In the second quarter of 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 1.775 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25%, and a net profit of 49 million yuan, marking a turnaround from losses. The net profit excluding non-recurring items was 29 million yuan [6][10]. Financial Performance Summary - In the first half of 2025, the personal care, beauty, innovation, and overseas divisions generated revenues of 1.6 billion yuan, 700 million yuan, 400 million yuan, and 700 million yuan, respectively. The beauty segment saw a growth of 32%, while personal care remained stable with slight growth [10]. - The second quarter of 2025 saw rapid growth in the beauty segment and e-commerce channels, contributing to strong revenue performance. The personal care and beauty segments achieved revenue of 800 million yuan and 420 million yuan, with growth rates of 42% and 56%, respectively [10]. - The improvement in net profit margin in the second quarter of 2025 was primarily due to an increase in gross margin and a decrease in sales expense ratio. The gross margin increased by 5 percentage points year-on-year, mainly driven by the higher proportion of beauty products and an increase in average selling prices across categories [10]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to see earnings per share (EPS) of 0.50 yuan, 0.63 yuan, and 0.85 yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively. The anticipated new product launches and enhanced brand promotions in the second half of 2024 are expected to drive growth [10].

Core Insights - Activist investor Elliott Management has invested $4 billion in PepsiCo and proposed a reform plan to the board, suggesting the evaluation of core business refranchising, divestiture of non-core assets, and streamlining the product portfolio [1] - Elliott believes that through these reforms, PepsiCo's stock price has the potential to increase by at least 50% [1] - PepsiCo's soda sales in the U.S. have dropped to fourth place, and the food business is under pressure, leading to a decline in the company's market value from its peak [1] Company Response - PepsiCo has stated that it will evaluate Elliott's views and engage in constructive communication with its shareholders while expressing confidence in its existing sustainable growth strategy [1] - Since the CEO took office, PepsiCo has implemented several measures, including cost-cutting, logistics integration, marketing expenditure assessment, and a relaunch of core brands, expecting a rebound in weak North American demand as strategic adjustments take effect [1]

Core Viewpoint - Elliott Investment Management has acquired approximately $4 billion in shares of PepsiCo and plans to advocate for changes within the struggling beverage manufacturer [1] Group 1: Investment and Shareholder Engagement - Elliott's stake makes it one of PepsiCo's largest investors [1] - PepsiCo stated it will evaluate Elliott's views in conjunction with its growth strategy aimed at accelerating growth and creating long-term shareholder value [1] Group 2: Market Challenges - PepsiCo is facing challenges due to competitive pressures and changing consumer tastes, with its market value declining over 20% since its peak in May 2023 [1] - Elliott outlined a reform plan for PepsiCo, which may include restructuring its beverage division and reassessing its snack product portfolio [1] Group 3: Performance Concerns - The market share of PepsiCo's beverage division, which includes brands like Coca-Cola, Gatorade, and Mountain Dew, has been declining and has underperformed for over a decade [1] - Following the announcement, PepsiCo's stock price increased by 2.2% [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company is currently undergoing a period of reform, which is causing some pain in its operations. However, there are expectations for revenue improvement in the coming years [5][7] - In Q2 2025, the company experienced marginal revenue improvement due to a low base effect, despite overall revenue pressure [5][6] - The gross margin improved significantly due to cost benefits from lower raw material prices, although profit margins were under pressure due to ongoing reforms [6][7] Financial Performance Summary - For H1 2025, the company reported revenue of 2.13 billion yuan (down 19% YoY) and a net profit of 260 million yuan (down 27% YoY) [9] - In Q2 2025, revenue was 1.03 billion yuan (down 9% YoY) with a net profit of 76 million yuan (down 32% YoY) [9] - The company’s gross margin for Q2 2025 was 39.4%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.2 percentage points, primarily due to lower raw material costs [6][9] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 5.04 billion, 5.50 billion, and 6.03 billion yuan respectively, with expected net profits of 715 million, 854 million, and 965 million yuan [7][10] Product and Regional Performance - In Q2 2025, revenue from soy sauce increased by 6.4% YoY, while chicken essence and cooking oil saw declines of 13.7% and 48.8% respectively [9] - Revenue performance varied by region, with East and North regions showing improvements of 1.1% and 6.8% YoY, while the South region declined by 12.4% [9]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a solid performance in H1 2025, with revenue and net profit showing year-on-year growth, although Q2 faced challenges due to weak consumer demand. The company remains committed to strengthening its core business and improving profitability through ongoing reforms [1][2]. Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 1.13 billion, net profit of 110 million, and net profit excluding non-recurring items of 100 million, representing year-on-year increases of 12.0%, 18.1%, and 22.8% respectively [1]. - Q2 2025 saw revenue of 500 million, net profit of 50 million, and net profit excluding non-recurring items of 50 million, with year-on-year changes of -8.2%, +40.6%, and +43.9% respectively [1]. - The revenue performance in Q2 was primarily affected by subdued consumer demand, while new product categories like复调 outperformed traditional categories [1][2]. Product and Channel Analysis - In H1 2025, revenue from various product categories was as follows: vinegar 740 million, liquor 150 million, sauce 80 million, and other products 150 million, with year-on-year changes of +8.0%, -5.4%, -3.5%, and +176.6% respectively [2]. - For Q2 2025, revenue from vinegar, liquor, and sauce was 370 million, 60 million, and 40 million, showing year-on-year declines of -1.0%, -18.9%, and -29.0% respectively [2]. - Online and offline channel revenues in H1 2025 were 80 million and 420 million, with year-on-year changes of +18.7% and -12.1% [2]. Profitability and Cost Structure - The company's gross margin in H1 2025 was 38.4%, an increase of 1.9 percentage points year-on-year, with Q2 gross margin reaching 42.1%, up 9.6 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - In H1 2025, the sales and management expense ratios were 18.1% and 4.2%, reflecting year-on-year changes of +1.5 and -1.0 percentage points respectively [3]. - The net profit margin for H1 2025 was 9.8%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points year-on-year, while Q2 net profit margin was 10.8%, up 3.8 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Future Outlook and Valuation - The company is optimistic about the long-term impact of management reforms and maintains its earnings forecasts for 2025-2027, projecting EPS of 0.18, 0.20, and 0.21 respectively [4]. - The target price for 2025 is set at 10.44, based on a PE ratio of 58x, reflecting an increase from the previous target of 9.36 [4].