食品饮料/白酒Ⅱ 洋河股份（002304.SZ） 库存持续出清，期待经营拐点 2025 年 08 月 22 日 投资评级：增持（维持） 证书编号：S0790521060002 zhanghengwei@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790524010001 主动调整去库存，后续改革值得期待，维持"增持"评级 2025H1 公司实现收入 147.96 亿，同比下滑 35.32%，归母净利 43.44 亿，同比下 滑 45.34%，Q2 实现营业收入 37.29 亿，同比下滑 43.67%，归母净利 7.07 亿， 同比下滑62.66%。Q2收入业绩下滑幅度加大，业绩低于预期，我们下调2025-2026 年盈利预测，并新增 2027 年盈利预测，预计 2025-2027 年净利润分别为 47.6 （-57.6）亿元、49.1（-61.8）亿元、51.6 亿元，同比分别-28.6%、+3.0%、+5.1%， EPS 分别为 3.16（-3.83）元、3.26（-4.10）元、3.42 元，当前股价对应 PE 分别 为 22.8、22.2、21.1 倍，上半年下滑幅度较大，一方面真实的体现了公司面临的 需求和竞争压 ...

Core Viewpoint - Yanghe Brewery's net profit attributable to shareholders for H1 2025 is projected to be 4.344 billion yuan, representing a 45% decrease year-on-year, with Q2 net profit at 707 million yuan, down 63% year-on-year [1] Financial Performance - For H1 2025, the company's revenue from domestic and external markets is 7.121 billion yuan and 7.392 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a decrease of 26% and 43% year-on-year [1] - The company has seen a faster pace of inventory destocking in the domestic market compared to the external market, leading to better performance domestically [1] Strategic Adjustments - The company is entering a deep reform phase, actively adjusting its growth strategy by slowing down operations [1] - Recent management changes have been implemented, and the company plans to continue controlling inventory and stabilizing prices to alleviate channel pressures [1] Future Outlook - The company is expected to gradually release positive results from its reforms, supported by brand strength [1] - Earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2025-2027 are 2.42 yuan, 2.60 yuan, and 2.89 yuan respectively, with current stock prices corresponding to price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 31, 28, and 26 times [1]

英特尔(NTC.US)股东未能获得一丝喘息之机，公司的改革困境 尚未过去，又遭遇新挫折——首席执行 官陈立武成为特朗普的抨击目标。 陈立武今年早些时候被聘任为这家陷入困境的芯片制造商的负责人，旨在帮助其摆脱长达数年的困境局 面。此举赢得了华尔街的喝彩，并推动了该公司股价的上涨。然而，在担任英特尔首席执行官仅五个月 后，他却招致了美国总统特朗普的不满。特朗普于周四要陈立武辞职，理由是他认为其存在利益冲突。 尽管特朗普并未提供任何证据来支持其指控，但这一攻击再次引发了人们对陈立武所推行的转型举措的 质疑。这些举措包括有针对性的产品开发、成本削减以及资产出售。而在经历了多年的失望之后，股东 们却对这些举措表示了支持。 Ingalls & Snyder高级投资策略师Tim Ghriskey说道："这类情况使得未来的道路变得更加艰难了，接连发 生了太多不幸的事情，一件接着一件。" 在特朗普发表相关言论后，英特尔的股价在周四仅下跌了 3.1%。但周五在盘前交易中，其股价又有所 上涨——这一现象表明投资者并不认为陈立武将很快离开英特尔公司。 该公司在周四晚些时候发布的声明中表示："英特尔和陈立武'坚定致力于推进美国的国家安 ...

在星巴克(SBUX.US)强调其首席执行官尼科尔(Brian Niccol)逆转长期销售下滑计划的进展后，该公司股 价周二盘后上涨。尽管该公司2025财年第三财季的同店销售额和利润未达市场预期，但投资者关注的是 财报中的积极信号，包括自2023年底以来中国市场首次实现销售增长。尼科尔在事先准备好的发言中表 示，转型计划"进展超出预期"，并承诺将在2026年"掀起一波创新浪潮"。 尼科尔表示，尽管财务表现尚未完全体现出改革成果，但复兴步伐已领先于预期。他提到，根据自己过 往在Chipotle成功应对食品安全危机的经验，目前公司势头正在转强。受此消息影响，截至发稿，星巴 克周二美股盘后涨逾4%。 这是星巴克中国业务一年半以来首次实现同店销售增长。据此前报道，星巴克一直在考虑出售其中国业 务部分股权。尼科尔在财报电话会议上表示，已有超过20家机构对此表现出兴趣，该公司希望保留"有 分量的"股份。 星巴克表示，其运营利润率在Q3下降，主要原因包括为转型计划投入的支出，如增加门店员工人数、 在拉斯维加斯举行的门店经理大会支出、以及通胀带来的压力。 星巴克首席财务官史密斯(Cathy Smith)表示，该公司将在未来一年 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate (Maintain)" [2] Core Views - The company is expected to gradually improve its quality and efficiency in 2025 as reforms are implemented [1] - The company reported a total revenue of 7,012 million yuan in 2024, a decrease of 10.7% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 55 million yuan, down 77.4% year-on-year [7] - The company is transitioning from a revenue-oriented strategy to a profit-oriented one, with internal reforms aimed at enhancing management efficiency and profitability [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue forecast for 2025 is 7,127 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 1.6% [6] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 89 million yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 63.1% [6] - The company’s gross margin is expected to be 23.7% in 2025, with a return on equity (ROE) of 1.8% [6] Performance Analysis - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a total revenue of 1,647 million yuan, down 19.5% year-on-year, but net profit increased by 20.9% to 88 million yuan [7] - The company’s gross margin in Q1 2025 improved to 24.36%, up 0.46 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to cost reductions [7] - The company is focusing on internal reforms, including reducing SKUs and optimizing product structure, which are expected to enhance profitability in the future [7]

Core Insights - Intel has appointed a new CEO, Pat Gelsinger, amid significant financial losses, with a net loss of $800 million in Q1, a 115% year-over-year increase [2] - The company is implementing drastic reforms including layoffs, restructuring, and budget cuts to drive transformation [2] - Gelsinger emphasizes the need for cultural change to eliminate bureaucratic obstacles that hinder innovation and flexibility [2] Financial Performance - Intel's Q1 net loss reached $800 million, marking a 115% increase compared to the previous year [2] - The company plans to cut operational expenses by $1.5 billion over the next two years [2] - The budget for 2025 is set to be reduced to $17 billion, followed by a further decrease to $16 billion in 2026, representing the largest budget cut in the company's history [2] Workforce and Structural Changes - Following a previous layoff of 15,000 employees (15% of the workforce) in August 2024, Intel is expected to lay off nearly 20,000 employees, amounting to 20% of its workforce [2] - The company will eliminate all non-core product lines to focus resources on high-profit businesses [2] - A new policy will require employees to work in the office four days a week starting September 1, replacing the ineffective three-day requirement [2] Industry Context - The drastic measures taken by Intel are seen as a response to worsening financial conditions and increased competition from rivals like TSMC and Samsung [3] - Analysts express uncertainty about whether cost-cutting alone will be sufficient for Intel to regain its competitive edge in the semiconductor industry [3] - The ongoing reforms may have significant implications for the global chip industry's competitive landscape [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [5]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 5.519 billion RMB for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 7.39%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 893 million RMB, a decrease of 47.37% [2]. - The company experienced a significant recovery in Q4 2024, with revenue reaching 1.573 billion RMB, up 32.59% year-on-year, and a non-GAAP net profit of 119 million RMB, up 93.95% year-on-year [2][4]. - The company is focusing on cost reduction and efficiency improvements, leading to a net profit margin of 13.9% for 2024, an increase of 2.6 percentage points year-on-year [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 5.519 billion RMB, with a growth rate of 7.39%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 893 million RMB, reflecting a decline of 47.37% [2][9]. - The company’s Q4 2024 results showed a revenue of 1.573 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 32.59% and a net profit of 317 million RMB, down 89.33% year-on-year [2][3]. Business Segments - The revenue from the main business segments in Q4 2024 included soy sauce at 2.982 billion RMB, chicken essence at 674 million RMB, cooking oil at 567 million RMB, and others at 631 million RMB, with cooking oil showing a significant increase of 27% year-on-year [3]. - The company added 470 new distributors in 2024, primarily in the central and northern regions, which is expected to support expansion in 2025 [3][4]. Profitability and Cost Management - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 37.0%, an increase of 4.3 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to optimized procurement costs and improved production efficiency [4]. - The company reported a significant increase in net profit margin in Q4 2024, reaching 11.8%, up 4.3 percentage points year-on-year [4]. Future Outlook - The company expects to see a net profit of 1.054 billion RMB in 2025, representing a growth of 18% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.177 billion RMB in 2026, reflecting a growth of 12% year-on-year [5][9]. - The anticipated contribution from the recovery of minority interests in a subsidiary is estimated to be between 60 to 80 million RMB in 2025 [4].