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期权交易员认为延迟发布的通胀报告“无关痛痒”
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-12-17 12:04
三年多来,对于美国股票交易员而言,最受关注的联邦数据发布莫过于月度消费者价格指数报告。 如今,投资者对周四即将公布的 11 月通胀报告基本持漠然态度,而非以往的惴惴不安。 巴克莱银行(股票代码:BCS)收集的数据显示,期权交易员预计标准普尔 500 指数(代码:^GSPC) 的波动幅度将在正负 0.7% 区间内。这一数值远低于今年前 9 个月 12 份通胀报告发布后该指数平均 1% 的实际波动幅度。 市场情绪发生转变事出有因。美联储目前对劳动力市场疲软迹象的反应,要比对通胀率的小幅波动更为 敏感。周二公布的数据显示,就业市场依旧低迷,这为明年降息预留了操作空间。 原定于 12 月 10 日发布、推迟至周四出炉的 11 月通胀报告,时效性较往常更弱。此外,受政府停摆导 致的调查工作中断影响,这份报告的可靠性可能也低于常规水平。值得注意的是,本次不会发布 10 月 消费者价格指数报告。 巴克莱股票战术策略全球主管亚历山大・奥特曼表示:"市场已然形成一种共识,即这份通胀数据要么 无关痛痒,要么从数据收集层面来看质量存疑,不会成为市场关注的核心。" 美国劳工统计局指出,由于缺失 10 月数据,这份通胀报告无法提供整体 ...
白宫:10月CPI和就业报告可能永远不会发布
Zhong Jin Zai Xian· 2025-11-13 01:08
Core Points - The White House has indicated that key government reports on inflation and the labor market for October may never be released due to the prolonged government shutdown [1][4] - The shutdown has severely hindered the ability of economists, investors, and policymakers to access critical government data, which is essential for assessing economic health [1][3] - The Labor Department has not clarified when it will begin processing the backlog of important economic reports, raising concerns about the release of the October Consumer Price Index (CPI) and employment reports [1][3] Summary by Sections Inflation Data - The White House previously suggested that the October inflation data might not be published, marking a potential historical first for such an omission [1] - Analysts had speculated that the Labor Department would attempt to release some October CPI data, albeit with a reduced sample size [2] Labor Market Data - The government shutdown has resulted in a lack of official economic data, forcing economists and investors to rely on private sector reports, which indicate a weakening job market and increasing layoffs [3][4] - The last available unemployment rate was 4.3% in August, with only 22,000 new jobs added, reflecting a significant slowdown in job growth [3] - The Labor Department is expected to quickly release the September employment report once the government reopens, as the data was collected before the shutdown [3] Challenges in Data Collection - The October data collection faced significant challenges due to the shutdown, with many staff unable to gather necessary statistics [4][6] - Some data, such as non-farm employment growth, may still be salvaged, but other metrics will be difficult to ascertain due to the lack of staff to conduct follow-up surveys [4][6] - The unprecedented duration of the shutdown has severely impacted the Labor Department's operations, which were already under budget constraints and political pressures [6]