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【中国海油(600938.SH/0883.HK)】践行增量降本之路,油气巨头助力建设海洋强国 ——动态跟踪报告(赵乃迪/蔡嘉豪/王礼沫)
光大证券研究· 2026-01-08 23:04
Core Viewpoint - China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) has established a comprehensive marine energy development system, positioning itself as a leader in the marine energy sector, focusing on technological innovation and the transition to a new energy system to support the construction of a marine power nation [4]. Group 1: Performance and Financials - CNOOC's performance in 2023 has significantly exceeded historical oil price levels, demonstrating resilience during periods of declining oil prices [5]. - The company's free cash flow has improved markedly, exceeding 100 billion yuan from 2022 to 2023, with the interest-bearing debt ratio decreasing from 17% in 2021 to 6% in the first half of 2025 [5]. - CNOOC plans to achieve capital expenditures of 125 to 135 billion yuan in 2025, laying a solid foundation for long-term production growth, and commits to a dividend payout ratio of no less than 45% from 2025 to 2027 [5]. Group 2: Production and Cost Efficiency - CNOOC's oil and gas production is projected to grow rapidly, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.0% for crude oil and 10.5% for natural gas from 2021 to 2024 [7]. - The company's estimated oil equivalent reserves for 2024 stand at 7.3 billion barrels, with the cash flow value of these reserves still underestimated [7]. - The average cost per barrel for the first three quarters of 2025 is expected to be $27.35, a decrease of 2.8% year-on-year, which is significantly lower than competitors in both domestic and international markets [7]. Group 3: Energy Transition and ESG Governance - CNOOC is actively pursuing the acquisition of new energy resources and project development, promoting offshore wind power alongside oil and gas production [8]. - The company aims to replace 760 million kilowatt-hours with green electricity through shore power projects by 2024, with expectations to exceed 1 billion kilowatt-hours in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of approximately 30% [8]. - CNOOC is exploring pathways for the industrialization of offshore CCS/CCUS and is developing two offshore CCUS bases in Bohai and Hainan, maintaining a stable ESG rating that ranks among the top in the petrochemical industry [8].
中国海油(600938)动态跟踪报告:践行增量降本之路 油气巨头助力建设海洋强国
Ge Long Hui· 2026-01-08 21:33
前瞻布局能源转型,完善ESG 治理体系。公司将抓好新能源资源获取和项目开发建设工作,推动海上 风电发展与增储上产同向发力,坚持油气与新能源融合发展,油气绿色生产成效显著。2024 年,公司 通过岸电工程等完成绿电替代7.6亿千瓦时,2025 年预计消纳绿电超10 亿度,同比上升约30%。公司持 续探索海上CCS/CCUS 产业化路径,推动打造渤海和海南两个海上CCUS 基地。公司ESG 评分稳定, 评级位居石化化工行业前列,制定清晰的"双碳"实施路径,加强内控体系建设,为公司可持续发展奠定 基础。 投资建议:得益于优秀的产量增长和成本控制,公司在油价下行期业绩韧性凸显,公司有望油气与新能 源业务并举,助力海洋强国建设。我们维持对公司的盈利预测,预计公司25-27 年归母净利润分别为 1354、1398、1443 亿元,折合EPS分别为2.85、2.94、3.04 元/股。我们维持公司A 股的"买入"评级,并 首次覆盖公司H 股,给予"买入"评级。 风险分析:油气价格大幅波动,勘探开发项目进度不及预期,海外市场风险。 海洋能源国家队,多领域共建海洋强国。成立四十余年来,中国海油已建成涵盖常规油气、深水油气、 L ...
【石油化工】中国海油集团:海洋能源巨头,建设海洋强国主力军——行业周报第433期(1215—1221)(赵乃迪/蔡嘉豪/王礼沫)
光大证券研究· 2025-12-22 23:05
Core Viewpoint - China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) is a leading enterprise in marine energy, contributing significantly to the construction of a maritime power through a comprehensive marine energy development system, including conventional oil and gas, deepwater oil and gas, LNG, and offshore wind power [2]. Group 1: Business Overview - CNOOC's main business segments include oil and gas exploration and development, specialized technical services, refining and sales, natural gas and power generation, and financial services, with a focus on developing offshore wind power and other renewable energy [3]. - The company anticipates a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.0% for crude oil production and 10.5% for natural gas production from 2021 to 2024, maintaining high capital expenditure to support growth [3]. - CNOOC has established six LNG receiving stations with a total processing capacity of 32.6 million tons per year and operates seven natural gas power plants with a total installed capacity of 6.82 million kilowatts, solidifying its position as a leader in the domestic LNG industry [3]. Group 2: ESG and Corporate Governance - As of December 17, 2025, CNOOC received an "AA" rating in the Wind ESG assessment, ranking 10th among 527 listed companies in the petrochemical industry and 3rd in the oil and gas sector, reflecting its strong performance in environmental, social, and governance (ESG) practices [4]. - The company has improved its board of directors' independence and strengthened risk management and internal control compliance, actively addressing climate change and implementing carbon reduction measures [4].