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清欠专项贷款或持续助力政府清欠
Ping An Securities· 2025-08-04 09:42
Group 1: Government Debt Clearance Initiatives - The recent government initiatives aim to clear overdue payments, with a focus on special loans and bonds to support this effort[2] - In 2025, the second batch of special debt limits was set at 794 billion CNY, with 200 billion CNY specifically allocated for clearing government debts[2][3] - The total overdue payments in Hunan's Xiangxi region reached 88.43 billion CNY, accounting for 10% of the local GDP in 2024[5] Group 2: Financial Tools and Projections - The estimated scale of overdue payments nationwide could reach approximately 14 trillion CNY, with a potential net amount of around 9 trillion CNY after accounting for overlaps[5] - Special loans for debt clearance are projected to be around 3.55 trillion CNY, with a monthly issuance of approximately 1,422 billion CNY over 25 months[7] - The issuance of special debt for clearance is expected to total about 8.73 trillion CNY if the current ratio of 19.8% is applied nationwide[4] Group 3: Timeline and Goals - The target for clearing overdue payments is set for June 2027, with specific annual reduction goals of 40%, 40%, and 20% for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively[6] - The regulatory framework aims for a complete clearance of overdue payments by mid-2027, with a focus on various debtor categories including government and enterprises[6]
平安证券:清欠专项贷款或持续助力政府清欠
Ping An Securities· 2025-08-04 09:35
Group 1: Government Debt Clearance Initiatives - The State Council has launched a new round of debt clearance actions, supported by fiscal and financial policies[3] - In June 2025, Hunan province allocated 200 billion yuan in new special bonds for debt clearance, with three provinces disclosing a total of 872 billion yuan in special bond quotas, accounting for 19.8% of their new bond issuance[3] - The total scale of overdue payments nationwide could reach approximately 13.9 trillion yuan, with a potential actual total of about 9.3 trillion yuan after accounting for overlapping debts[5] Group 2: Financial Tools and Support - Special clearance loans are a key financial tool for supporting debt clearance, with potential issuance of around 3.55 trillion yuan in such loans over 25 months[7] - The new "Regulations on Payment to Small and Medium Enterprises" will take effect on June 1, 2025, further facilitating debt clearance efforts[7] - Financial instruments such as asset securitization, debt-to-equity swaps, and debt restructuring are also being utilized to address overdue payments[4] Group 3: Progress and Goals - The clearance rate for overdue payments in Hunan is targeted at 40% in 2025 and 2026, with a goal of achieving a complete clearance by June 2027[6] - The issuance of special clearance bonds is expected to reduce the total overdue payments from 9.3 trillion yuan to approximately 7.1 trillion yuan[7] - The clearance of overdue payments is expected to positively impact credit and M1 data in the coming years, as evidenced by significant increases in new M1 and short-term loans[7]