[Table_Info1] 中国石化(600028) 石油石化 油气当量产量稳健增长，油价下行致勘探开发板块盈利略有承压 2025Q2 公司持续推动增储上产降本，加快重点油气产能建设，实现油气 当量产量 131.84 百万桶，同比+2.3%，环比+0.7%。2025Q2，受美国关税 以及地缘冲突等外部影响，油价出现较大幅度波动，据 Wind 数据， 2025Q2 布伦特油价均价为 66.71 美元，同比-21.5%，环比-11.0%。受油 价下行影响，2025H1 公司原油平均实现销售价格为人民币 3,415 元/吨， 同比-12.9%。2025Q2，勘探及开发板块息税前利润为 118.9 亿元，同比- 25.9%，环比-12.8%。 增储上产成效显著，"反内卷"下龙头优势凸显 [Table_Summary] 事件：据公司公告，2025H1 公司实现营收 14090.52 亿元，同比-10.60%， 归母净利润 214.83 亿元，同比-39.83%，扣非归母净利润 212.15 亿元， 同比-40.38%。2025Q2，公司实现营收 6736.96 亿元，同比-14.31%，归 母净利润 82.19 亿元， ...

证券研究报告 [Table_ReportType] 点评报告 [Table_StockAndRank] 荣盛石化(002493.SZ) [Table_A 刘红光 uthor 石化行业联席首席分析师 ] 执业编号：S1500525060002 邮箱：liuhongguang@cindasc.com [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 8 月 25 日 [Table_S 事件：202ummar 5 年y]8 月 22 日晚，荣盛石化发布 2025 年半年度报告。2025 年 上半年公司实现营业收入 1486.29 亿元，同比下降 7.83%；实现归母净利润 6.02 亿元，同比下降 29.82%；实现扣非后归母净利润为 7.55 亿元，同比 增长 12.28%；实现基本每股收益 0.06 元，同比下降 33.33%。 其中，第二季度公司实现营业收入 736.54 亿元，同比下降 8.12%，环比下 降 1.76%；实现归母净利润 0.14 亿元，同比下降 95.52%，环比下降 97.67%； 实现扣非后净利润 1.37 亿元，同比下降 30.92%，环比下降 77.91%。 点评： 公司研究 刘 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the expected implementation of a new round of stable growth work plans in key industries, including petrochemicals, which will promote structural adjustments and the elimination of outdated production capacity [2] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is set to release specific work plans for ten key industries, focusing on optimizing supply and eliminating backward production capacity [2] - The "anti-involution" policy is anticipated to accelerate the supply-side reform in the chemical industry, particularly in sub-industries such as refining, PTA/PX, fertilizers, pigments, organic silicon/industrial silicon, soda ash, and chlor-alkali/PVC [2] Group 2 - In the refining sector, strict control of production capacity and low operating rates of local refineries are expected to improve the profitability of major refineries [3] - As of July 17, the operating rate of local refineries in Shandong was only 47.31%, indicating a historical low, which is expected to maintain due to the peak demand trend for refined oil [3] - The government aims to keep domestic crude oil processing capacity below 1 billion tons by 2025, with a target utilization rate of over 80% for major products [3] Group 3 - The urea industry is projected to see a gradual reduction in supply, which, combined with potential export opportunities, is expected to improve industry conditions [5] - By 2025, the new urea production capacity is estimated to be 4.93 million tons, accounting for only 6.5% of the current total capacity of 76.07 million tons, indicating limited future supply growth [5] Group 4 - The demand for soda ash and PVC is expected to recover due to increased infrastructure needs, with significant new production capacities planned for 2025-2026 [6] - The planned new soda ash capacity for 2025-2026 is 8.68 million tons, representing 20% of the total capacity in 2024, while the PVC capacity increase is projected to be 5 million tons, or 17% of the 2024 total capacity [6] - The "anti-involution" policy is likely to facilitate ongoing supply-side reforms in the soda ash and PVC industries, leading to improved supply conditions and increased industry concentration [6]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Dongfang Shenghong, is facing significant financial challenges due to high debt levels and poor performance in the petrochemical industry, leading to substantial losses and a decline in the wealth of its founders [1][2]. Financial Performance - As of Q1 2025, Dongfang Shenghong reported total liabilities of 176.5 billion yuan, with interest-bearing debt exceeding 140 billion yuan and a debt-to-asset ratio rising to 82.17% from 81.66% at the end of 2024 [1][11]. - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 137.68 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.97% year-on-year, and reported a net loss of 2.297 billion yuan, marking a 420.33% decline compared to the previous year [2][7]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw a 17.5% year-on-year decline in revenue to 30.31 billion yuan, although net profit increased by 38.19% to 341 million yuan [2]. Industry Context - The petrochemical industry is undergoing a deep adjustment, with a 20.7% decline in total profits in 2023 and an additional 8.8% drop in 2024, resulting in over 70% of companies facing losses [1][8]. - Despite a slight increase in revenue for the overall oil and chemical industry in 2024, profits fell by 8.8%, indicating a significant decline in industry profitability [8]. Debt and Financial Pressure - Dongfang Shenghong's financial situation is exacerbated by high inventory levels, with a recorded inventory of 22.167 billion yuan as of Q1 2025 and cumulative inventory impairment losses of 3.92 billion yuan from 2022 to 2024 [10]. - The company has experienced significant cash outflows for investments, totaling over 100 billion yuan from 2021 to 2024, and has raised approximately 182.3 billion yuan since its listing [10][11]. - Financial expenses increased by 39.49% in 2024, reaching 4.874 billion yuan, further straining profitability [10]. Business Strategy - Dongfang Shenghong has diversified its production capabilities with a total refining capacity of 16 million tons per year and various production routes for olefins, aiming to mitigate risks associated with industry cycles [12].

Core Viewpoint - The company is navigating a challenging economic environment while focusing on safety, environmental protection, operational efficiency, transformation, and reform to achieve high-quality development and profitability [3][4][5]. Group 1: Operational Performance - The company processed a total of 13.35 million tons of crude oil in the reporting period, a decrease of 5.48% year-on-year, and produced 8.65 million tons of refined oil, down 0.19% [3]. - The average price of refined and chemical products decreased by 0.96% and increased by 6.67% respectively compared to the previous year [3]. - The total cost of crude oil processing decreased by 6.045 billion yuan, reflecting improved cost management [3]. Group 2: Safety and Environmental Initiatives - The company has implemented a comprehensive safety production responsibility system and enhanced risk prevention measures, resulting in stable production operations throughout the year [3][4]. - Environmental quality has improved, with the average concentration of VOCs at 65.14 micrograms per cubic meter, a decrease of 9.90% year-on-year [3]. Group 3: Strategic Development Goals - The company aims to become a "domestically leading, world-class" energy, chemical, and new materials company, focusing on low-cost upstream operations and high-value downstream products [6]. - The strategic plan includes transitioning from refining to chemicals, from chemicals to materials, and from materials to high-end products, while promoting ecological development [6]. Group 4: Future Financial Projections - For 2025, the company plans to process 13.1 million tons of crude oil and produce 8.39 million tons of refined oil, along with 622,200 tons of ethylene and 688,000 tons of paraxylene [6]. - The company will focus on enhancing safety management, optimizing production operations, driving innovation, and improving corporate governance to achieve its financial targets [6][7][8][9]. Group 5: Governance and Compliance - The board of directors has held multiple meetings to ensure compliance with regulations and effective decision-making, maintaining a governance structure that meets regulatory requirements [5][11]. - The supervisory board has conducted regular meetings to oversee the management's adherence to laws and regulations, ensuring the protection of shareholder interests [11][12]. Group 6: Profit Distribution Plan - The company plans to distribute cash dividends of 0.2 yuan per share, totaling approximately 211.58 million yuan, which represents 66.85% of the net profit attributable to shareholders for the year [26].

Group 1 - Chevron is attempting to restart its El Segundo refinery in California after partially shutting down some units last week [1]

Core Viewpoint - Dongfang Shenghong reported a significant net loss of 2.297 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decline of 420.33%, primarily due to falling crude oil prices and reduced profit margins in refining products [2][3] Financial Performance - In 2024, Dongfang Shenghong's operating revenue was 137.675 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.97% year-on-year, while net profit turned to a loss of 2.297 billion yuan [2] - The company's non-recurring net profit was a loss of 2.654 billion yuan, down 1322.44% year-on-year [2] - The financial pressure is exacerbated by high debt levels, with total liabilities reaching 166.84 billion yuan and a debt-to-asset ratio of 81.66% by the end of 2024 [7] Industry Context - The decline in profitability is consistent across the industry, with Dongfang Shenghong experiencing the largest drop among major private refining companies [3] - Brent crude oil averaged $79.9 per barrel in 2024, down approximately 2.9% year-on-year, impacting the entire refining sector [3] Business Segments - In 2024, refining products generated revenue of 27.857 billion yuan, a decline of 4.05%, accounting for 20.23% of total revenue [5] - The other petrochemical and chemical new materials segment accounted for 58.42% of total revenue, with a revenue decline of 6.04% [5] - The fiber and polyester yarn segments saw growth, with fiber revenue increasing by 13.17% to 27.151 billion yuan [5] Debt and Financial Management - Short-term borrowings increased by 26.34% to 52.682 billion yuan, contributing to a rise in financial expenses to 4.873 billion yuan, up 39.49% year-on-year [7] - Despite the high debt levels, the company maintains that its financial health is stable, with a record operating cash flow of 10.475 billion yuan in 2024 [8] Future Outlook - Dongfang Shenghong is focusing on transitioning towards new energy markets, including investments in photovoltaic materials and lithium battery components [8][9] - The company is also advancing its EVA and POE production capabilities, with plans for a 100,000-ton POE facility expected to be operational in 2025 [9]