Core Insights - The A-share market saw all three major indices rise on Tuesday, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.87% to 4,117.41 points, the Shenzhen Component Index up 1.36%, and the ChiNext Index up 0.99%. The total trading volume in the A-share market was approximately 2.20 trillion RMB, with over 3,700 stocks rising [2][8] - In the Shenwan industry classification, the oil and petrochemical and building materials sectors led the gains, while the media sector lagged. Among concept sectors, combustible ice and cultivated diamond concepts had the highest increases [2][8] Important News - On February 24, the Ministry of Commerce of China announced the inclusion of 20 Japanese entities in the export control list, which includes companies like Mitsubishi Heavy Industries that are involved in enhancing Japan's military capabilities. Another 20 entities, including Subaru Corporation, were placed on a watch list due to unverified end-users and end-uses of dual-use items [3][8] Industry Analysis - As of February 15, 2026, 42 listed companies in the social service sector had released their 2025 earnings forecasts, with a disclosure rate of 49% and an overall pre-profit rate of 45%, ranking sixth among eight major consumption sectors. The consumption structure in China is shifting from goods to a balance of goods and services, with service consumption expected to be a major growth driver [9][10] - The social service sector is anticipated to see structural opportunities in the first half of 2026, driven by policies such as the implementation of the Spring and Autumn holiday system and a gradual recovery in consumer confidence. Key areas of focus include travel-related companies benefiting from these policies, leading chain restaurants in a critical phase of expansion, and early-stage investments in emerging experiential sectors like sports events and concerts [9][10] Earnings Forecasts - The social service sector has a total of 85 A-share companies, with 42 having released earnings forecasts, resulting in a disclosure rate of 49%, ranking fourth among consumption sectors. Among the companies that released forecasts, only 19 are expected to be profitable in 2025, with a pre-profit rate of 45%, ranking sixth among consumption sectors. Compared to the same period in 2024, the sector's performance is under pressure, with a noticeable trend of divergence [10][12] - The tourism and scenic area sector is showing signs of recovery, with 8 out of 13 companies that released forecasts expected to be profitable. The professional services sector is performing steadily, while the sports sector is expected to incur losses [10][12]

证券研究报告 2026 年 2 月 25 日 星期三 【A 股市场大势研判】 A 股马年开门红 市场表现： | 指数名称 | 收盘点位 | 涨跌幅 | 涨跌 | 上证指数分时图 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | 4117.41 | 0.87% | 35.34 | | | 深证成指 | 14291.57 | 1.36% | 191.38 | | | 沪深 300 | 4707.54 | 1.01% | 47.14 | | | 创业板 | 3308.26 | 0.99% | 32.31 | | | 科创 50 | 1465.37 | -0.34% | -4.97 | | | 北证 50 | 1535.43 | 0.37% | 5.66 | | 资料来源：东莞证券研究所，iFinD 数据 板块排名： | 申万一级涨幅前五 | | | 申万一级跌幅前五 | 热点板块 n | 涨幅前五 | 热点板块跌幅前五 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 石油石化 | 5.53% | 传媒 | -3.20 ...

二、强势概念板块 根据A股概念涨跌幅与所对应的股票池综合分析，涨幅靠前的三个概念板块分别为：可燃冰、培育钻石与草甘膦。排名前10位的概念板块相关数据见下表： | 概念名称 | 涨跌幅(%) | 涨停成分股占比(%) | 上涨成分股占比(%) | 下跌成分股占比(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 可燃冰 | 7.38 | 28.57 | 100.0 | 0.0 | | 培育钻石 | 6.16 | 16.67 | 94.44 | 5.56 | | 草甘脾 | 5.56 | 11.11 | 100.0 | 0.0 | | 钛白粉概念 | 5.47 | 20.0 | 100.0 | 0.0 | | 页岩气 | 5.34 | 12.0 | 100.0 | 0.0 | | 磷化工 | 5.18 | 20.69 | 93.1 | 6.9 | | 金属铝 | 4.93 | 13.16 | 97.37 | 2.63 | | 俄乌冲突概念 | 4.89 | 20.55 | 97.26 | 2.74 | | 化肥 | 4.52 | 12.5 | 97.22 | 2.78 | | 金属锌 ...

来源：新浪证券-红岸工作室 中国石油今年以来股价涨3.27%，近5个交易日跌2.45%，近20日涨8.92%，近60日涨8.15%。 分红方面，中国石油A股上市后累计派现8752.80亿元。近三年，累计派现2470.78亿元。 2月6日，中国石油盘中上涨2.09%，截至13:57，报10.75元/股，成交15.16亿元，换手率0.09%，总市值 19674.76亿元。 机构持仓方面，截止2025年9月30日，中国石油十大流通股东中，中国证券金融股份有限公司位居第四 大流通股东，持股10.20亿股，持股数量较上期不变。香港中央结算有限公司位居第五大流通股东，持 股5.21亿股，相比上期减少3.36亿股。华夏上证50ETF（510050）位居第七大流通股东，持股2.16亿 股，相比上期减少586.44万股。华泰柏瑞沪深300ETF（510300）位居第十大流通股东，持股1.93亿股， 相比上期减少955.40万股。易方达上证50增强A（110003）退出十大流通股东之列。 资金流向方面，主力资金净流入1.18亿元，特大单买入4.23亿元，占比27.90%，卖出3.20亿元，占比 21.13%；大单买入3.70亿元 ...

Core Viewpoints - The A-share market experienced a fluctuation with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.85% to close at 4102.2 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.21%, and the ChiNext Index fell by 0.4%. The total trading volume in the A-share market reached 2.50 trillion RMB, with over 3200 stocks rising [2][7] - In terms of industry performance, the coal and building materials sectors led the gains, while the media and telecommunications sectors lagged behind. Concept stocks related to combustible ice and coal saw significant increases, whereas stocks like Kuaishou, Xiaohongshu, and Sora experienced declines [2][7] - The Hong Kong market showed a slight increase with the Hang Seng Index rising by 0.05%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 1.84%. In the overseas markets, the US stock indices showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones increasing by 0.53%, the S&P 500 decreasing by 0.51%, and the Nasdaq dropping by 1.51% [2][7] Important News - The People's Bank of China held a meeting on the credit market for 2026, emphasizing the need to enhance quality financial services for major strategies, key areas, and weak links. The focus is on supporting consumption, expanding domestic demand, technological innovation, and small and micro enterprises [3][7]

Market Overview - The market experienced a rebound with the Shanghai Composite Index returning to 4100 points, closing at 4102.20, up by 0.85% [2][4] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14156.27, up by 0.21%, while the ChiNext Index fell by 0.40% to 3311.51 [2][4] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 2.48 trillion yuan, a decrease of 633 billion yuan from the previous trading day [6] Sector Performance - The top-performing sectors included coal (up 7.58%), building materials (up 3.48%), and real estate (up 2.97%) [3][4] - Conversely, sectors such as media (-3.12%), telecommunications (-2.73%), and computing (-1.70%) underperformed [3][4] - Concept indices showed strong performance in coal, TOPCON batteries, and BC batteries, while concepts like Kuaishou and cloud gaming lagged behind [3][4] Future Outlook - The report indicates that the market is expected to stabilize with a focus on consumption policies and infrastructure development [6] - Short-term volatility is anticipated due to profit-taking pressures after a rapid rise in stock prices over the past two months [6] - Long-term, the market is expected to transition from a valuation-driven rally to one driven by earnings, with a focus on strategic resource products and technology growth [6] News Highlights - The central government's No. 1 document emphasizes the integration of AI with agriculture and the development of new agricultural production capabilities [5] - The People's Bank of China announced an 800 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation to maintain liquidity in the banking system [5] - In January 2026, A-share new accounts reached 4.9158 million, a 213% increase year-on-year [5]

Strong Stocks - As of January 28, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.27% to 4151.24 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.09% to 14342.89 points. The ChiNext Index fell by 0.57% to 3323.56 points. A total of 85 stocks in the A-share market hit the daily limit up, with the strongest stocks being: Baiyin Nonferrous Metals (601212), Hunan Baiyin (002716), and China Gold (600916) [1] - The top three strong stocks based on consecutive limit-up days and turnover rates are as follows: Baiyin Nonferrous Metals with 7 consecutive limit-ups and a turnover rate of 5.42%, Hunan Baiyin with 5 limit-ups in 7 days and a turnover rate of 21.68%, and China Gold with 4 consecutive limit-ups and a turnover rate of 1.81% [1] Strong Concept Sectors - The top three concept sectors based on A-share performance are: Gold Concept with a rise of 7.54%, Metal Lead with a rise of 6.92%, and Metal Zinc with a rise of 6.91% [2][3] - The top ten concept sectors and their respective performance are as follows: Gold Concept (7.54%), Metal Aluminum (6.92%), Metal Zinc (6.91%), Metal Copper (4.91%), Minor Metals Concept (3.94%), Metal Nickel (3.84%), Metal Diamond (3.57%), Combustible Ice (3.53%), Metal Recycling (3.52%), and Glyphosate (3.43%) [3]

Market Overview - The A-share market is experiencing narrow consolidation with the three major indices showing slight gains, specifically the Shanghai Composite Index up by 0.14%, the Shenzhen Component Index up by 0.50%, and the ChiNext Index up by 1.01% [2][4] - The total trading volume in the A-share market reached 2.69 trillion yuan, an increase of 91 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day, indicating a potential short-term consolidation phase after continuous volume increases [7] Sector Performance - The top-performing sectors include Construction Materials (up 4.09%), National Defense and Military Industry (up 3.23%), and Oil and Petrochemicals (up 3.07%) [3][4] - Conversely, the sectors with the poorest performance include Beauty and Personal Care (down 0.76%), Banking (down 0.43%), and Pharmaceutical and Biological (down 0.42%) [3][4] Concept Indices - Among concept indices, the Domestic Aircraft Carrier concept led with a gain of 3.82%, followed by Combustible Ice (up 3.57%) and Large Aircraft (up 3.04%) [3][4] - On the downside, sectors such as Sci-Tech New Stocks and Photoresists saw declines of 1.09% and 0.93%, respectively [3][4] Future Outlook - The report indicates that the A-share market is likely to continue receiving support from multiple favorable factors, including the "14th Five-Year" industrial guidance, overseas liquidity easing, and domestic policy support [7] - The upcoming economic stabilization policies are expected to drive market risk appetite higher, suggesting a potential upward trend as the spring market approaches [7] Government Initiatives - A significant government initiative includes the allocation of 93.6 billion yuan in ultra-long special treasury bonds to support equipment upgrades across various sectors, which is projected to stimulate total investment exceeding 460 billion yuan [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article provides an objective ranking of open-end fund net values, highlighting the top-performing and underperforming funds without any subjective bias or investment advice [1]. Fund Performance Summary Top 10 Funds by Net Value Growth - The top-performing funds as of January 22, 2026, include: 1. Dongcai Economic Driver C: 1.7402, growth of 6.17% 2. Dongcai Economic Driver A: 1.7617, growth of 6.17% 3. Oriental Alpha A: 1.1234, growth of 5.96% 4. Oriental Alpha C: 1.1116, growth of 5.96% 5. GF Zhaoli Mixed C: 1.1928, growth of 5.50% 6. GF Zhaoli Mixed A: 1.2122, growth of 5.50% 7. Caitong Quality Selection C: 1.1012, growth of 5.25% 8. Caitong Quality Selection A: 1.1022, growth of 5.24% 9. Caitong Craftsmanship A: 1.6595, growth of 5.17% 10. Caitong Craftsmanship C: 1.6099, growth of 5.17% [2]. Bottom 10 Funds by Net Value Growth - The underperforming funds as of January 22, 2026, include: 1. Oriental Alpha A: 1.2083, decline of 3.22% 2. Oriental Alpha C: 1.2054, decline of 3.22% 3. Oriental Alpha A: 0.9092, decline of 3.05% 4. Oriental Alpha C: 0.9068, decline of 3.05% 5. Qianhai Kaiyuan High-end Equipment Manufacturing C: 2.3850, decline of 3.04% 6. Qianhai Kaiyuan High-end Equipment Manufacturing A: 2.3956, decline of 3.04% 7. Oriental Alpha C: 1.0837, decline of 2.96% 8. Oriental Alpha A: 1.1044, decline of 2.96% 9. Bank of China Health C: 1.6065, decline of 2.90% 10. Bank of China Health A: 1.6396, decline of 2.90% [3]. Market Analysis - The Shanghai Composite Index opened high but experienced fluctuations, closing slightly up, while the ChiNext Index showed a rebound after a dip. The total trading volume reached 2.71 trillion, with a gain-loss ratio of 3577:1777 and a limit-up-limit-down ratio of 92:5. Leading sectors included aviation, building materials, and shipbuilding, each with gains exceeding 3%, while insurance, banking, and pharmaceuticals lagged behind [5]. Fund Holdings Analysis Fund with Strong Holdings - A fund with a focus on the military industry has a top ten holding concentration of 66.44%. Key stocks include China Satellite Communications, China Satellite, and Aerospace Engineering, with significant daily gains. The fund's net value has outperformed the market [6]. Fund with Weak Holdings - A fund focused on the semiconductor industry has a top ten holding concentration of 81.12%. Major holdings like Jingce Electronics and Jingzhida have seen significant declines, resulting in the fund underperforming the market [7].

Group 1 - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.14% to close at 4122.58 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.5% to 14327.05 points, and the ChiNext Index climbed by 1.01% to 3328.65 points [1] - A total of 92 stocks in the A-share market hit the daily limit up, with the top three strong stocks being Baiyin Nonferrous (601212), Hunan Baiyin (002716), and Guanghe Technology (001389) [1] - The top 10 strong stocks based on consecutive limit-up days and turnover rates include Baiyin Nonferrous with 3 consecutive limit-ups and a turnover rate of 8.33%, Hunan Baiyin with 3 consecutive limit-ups and a turnover rate of 32.2%, and Guanghe Technology with 2 consecutive limit-ups and a turnover rate of 20.2% [1] Group 2 - The top three concept sectors with the highest gains are Domestic Aircraft Carriers at 3.82%, Combustible Ice at 3.57%, and Chengfei Concept at 3.44% [2] - The top 10 concept sectors by gain percentage include Large Aircraft at 3.04%, Terahertz at 3.01%, Shale Gas at 2.99%, Aviation Engines at 2.9%, Special Steel Concept at 2.82%, Natural Gas at 2.76%, and China Shipbuilding System at 2.73% [2]