焦煤贸易

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北方国际(000065):业绩阶段承压,重视焦煤贸易弹性
Guolian Minsheng Securities· 2025-08-28 09:02
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [7] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 6.7 billion yuan for H1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 35%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 310 million yuan, down 43% year-on-year. The second quarter of 2025 saw revenues, net profit, and net profit excluding non-recurring items of 3.1 billion, 130 million, and 130 million yuan, respectively, reflecting year-on-year declines of 43%, 52%, and 51% [5][13] - The company is facing pressure on its revenue due to weak trading volumes and prices for coking coal in H1 2025. The trading volume of coking coal was 2.22 million tons, compared to 3.16 million tons in H1 2024. The company is focusing on its integrated investment and operation model, with projects in Mongolia and Croatia as benchmarks for its ongoing transformation [14][16] - There are signs of improvement in coking coal prices in H2 2025, which may provide better profit elasticity. The current price corresponds to a PE ratio of 10x for 2025, maintaining the "Buy" rating [16] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company's revenue was 6.7 billion yuan, down 35% year-on-year, with a net profit of 310 million yuan, down 43% year-on-year. The second quarter figures were 3.1 billion yuan in revenue, 130 million yuan in net profit, and 130 million yuan in net profit excluding non-recurring items, reflecting year-on-year declines of 43%, 52%, and 51% respectively [5][13] - The company’s gross margin for H1 2025 was 13.1%, with a year-on-year increase of 3.1 percentage points. The gross margins for engineering, resource equipment supply chain, and power operations were 17.4%, 0.7%, and 70.5%, respectively [15] Business Transformation - The company is steadily advancing its integrated investment and operation model, with significant projects such as the Mongolia mining integration project and the Croatia wind power project. The transformation is ongoing and is expected to enhance profitability [16] Future Outlook - The company forecasts revenues of 20.8 billion, 22.7 billion, and 24.7 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 9% for each year. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 1.2 billion, 1.3 billion, and 1.4 billion yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 14%, 9%, and 8% respectively [16][17]