Core Insights - The Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays have merged this year, creating the longest holiday period of the year, which has led to a shift in the gift box market dynamics [1] - The market for gift boxes has seen a trend towards more affordable pricing, with popular products priced around 99 yuan for four boxes or 100 yuan for five boxes, indicating a stabilization in the market after a previous decline [1][2] - The overall pricing of mainstream gift boxes has decreased compared to last year, with many items priced below 100 yuan, contributing to a higher market activity than the same period last year [1][2] Market Trends - Manufacturers and distributors are adopting a more rational mindset, with some well-known brands pricing their gift boxes low and operating on thin margins to boost sales [2] - Despite the introduction of affordable gift boxes, some distributors report a decline in market activity, with sales down by 20-30% in certain areas [2] - The fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) gift box market has been weak in recent years, particularly during the Spring Festival, where sales initially surged but then dropped significantly, impacting the performance of related listed companies [2] Consumer Behavior - The shift towards affordable gift boxes is influenced by multiple factors, including criticism of "sky-high gift box prices" and a changing consumer mindset that values actual worth over extravagant packaging [3] - The past two years of sluggish gift market performance reflect consumer resistance to overly luxurious products, prompting companies to adjust their strategies to offer more reasonably priced options [3]

Core Viewpoint - The concept of "no middleman profit" has become a misleading narrative that harms small businesses and distributors, leading to significant financial losses for many [1][3][11] Group 1: Impact on Small Businesses - Many small business owners and distributors are struggling to survive as they are squeezed between manufacturers and consumers, often facing reduced profit margins [5][7][9] - The white liquor industry is experiencing a "micro-profit era," where high purchase prices and low selling prices lead to losses for small retailers [5][10] - A case study of a dairy distributor highlights how the purchase price can exceed retail prices due to market chaos, making it unviable for distributors to continue their business [8][9] Group 2: Misleading Marketing Strategies - The marketing strategy of eliminating middlemen is often a facade, where new intermediaries emerge, and the original profit margins remain intact [4][10] - E-commerce platforms promote the idea of cutting out middlemen, but they themselves act as intermediaries, leading to increased costs for manufacturers and small businesses [5][10] Group 3: Consequences of Disruption - The disruption caused by e-commerce and direct sales has led to a breakdown of traditional pricing structures, resulting in a vicious cycle of price wars and inventory issues for distributors [10][11] - Brands that engage in direct sales often neglect their distributors, leading to a loss of trust and financial stability within the distribution network [9][11] Group 4: Value of Distributors - Distributors play a crucial role in the supply chain by providing logistics, market access, and customer service, which are often undervalued in the current market narrative [10][13] - The elimination of distributors could lead to inefficiencies and higher costs for consumers, as manufacturers would struggle to manage direct sales to numerous retailers [13][15] Group 5: Long-term Solutions - Instead of focusing on eliminating middlemen, the industry should aim to improve channel efficiency and ensure that every participant in the supply chain is fairly compensated for their role [15] - Acknowledging the value of each channel participant is essential for maintaining a healthy and sustainable market environment [15]