研究报告 Research Report 30 Sep 2025 中国必需消费 China (Overseas) Staples 中国必选消费品 9 月成本报告：双节前成本指数波动较小 September CGCI: Cost indices fluctuated slightly before the Festivals [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus | [Table_Info] | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 市盈率 P/E | | 股票名称 | 评级 目标价 | PE(2025E) | PE(2026E) | | 百威亚太 | Neutral 7.90 | 21 | 20 | | 华润啤酒 | Outperform 36.00 | 15 | 14 | | 海底捞 | Outperform 18.22 | 14 | 14 | | 康师傅 | Outperform 17.74 | 14 | 12 | | 中国飞鹤 | Outperform 7.00 | 8 | 8 | | 颐海国际 | Outperform 18 ...

Core Insights - The convenience noodle industry is facing challenges due to the rise of alternative products and changing consumer preferences, leading to a decline in the appeal of instant noodles [1][10] - Brands are resorting to promotions to boost sales, resulting in a dilemma of "no sales without promotions, no profits with promotions" [2][6] - Rising raw material costs and increased competition are squeezing profit margins, with many brands experiencing revenue growth without corresponding profit increases [3][5] Cost Challenges - High raw material costs are a significant issue, with key ingredients like flour and palm oil experiencing price volatility, impacting overall production costs [3][4] - The cost structure of instant noodles includes approximately 35% for raw materials, 20% for packaging, 25% for production, and 20% for logistics, all of which are under pressure from rising costs [3][4] - The industry is seeing a general increase in costs over the past decade, with raw material and production costs rising by 30%-65% [3][4] Market Dynamics - The convenience noodle market is entering a phase of stagnant or declining sales, with a reported decrease of 4 billion packages from 2020 to 2023 [5] - Brands are engaging in price wars and aggressive promotions, which further erodes profitability and creates a cycle of high investment with low returns [5][6] - Consumer loyalty is declining as frequent promotions lead to a reliance on short-term incentives rather than product value [6] Global Expansion - The trend of international expansion is evident, with significant growth in exports, particularly to the U.S. and African markets, although challenges such as tariffs and supply chain issues persist [7][8] - Brands like Nongshim and Samyang are benefiting from overseas sales, but they also face increased costs due to tariffs and logistical challenges [7][8] Consumer Behavior Changes - Changing consumer habits, including the rise of food delivery services and health-conscious eating, are negatively impacting instant noodle sales [10][11] - The popularity of high-speed rail has also reduced the demand for instant noodles as a travel food option [10] - Consumers are increasingly concerned about the health implications of instant noodles, leading to a shift towards healthier alternatives [10][11] Innovation and Product Development - Brands are attempting to innovate by introducing non-fried options and enhancing nutritional value, but many still struggle to change consumer perceptions [11][14] - There is a need for brands to embrace new consumption scenarios and extend product lines to meet diverse consumer needs [16][17] - The industry is shifting from a focus on volume to a focus on value, emphasizing quality and consumer experience over mere sales growth [14][15] Supply Chain Resilience - The importance of robust supply chain management is highlighted, with brands needing to localize production to mitigate costs and improve efficiency [12][13] - The industry is moving towards smart supply chain solutions, utilizing technology for better inventory and procurement decisions [13]

2013年到2025年，外卖行业经历了多轮激烈竞争，每一轮都伴随着"方便面将被取代"的唱衰声。新速食、预制菜兴起、外卖等跨界挑战者持续冲击着方便面 市场。 然而，康师傅依然稳居行业龙头，市占率高达45%。 因为，康师傅能始终精准把握"对胃"与"卡位"，敏锐捕捉时代偏爱，持续交付标准化、高确定性的产品，从而牢牢赢得市场与消费者的信赖。 这，也正是康师傅如今敢于再次正面迎战外卖冲击的底气所在。 01 创新一代速食，比外卖"多快好省"？ 图注：潮卤牛三宝牛肉面\白松露鸡腿鸡汤面\PREMIUM 优选杯 再比如，康师傅聚焦场景积极拥抱新渠道——在山姆先后上架了用料扎实、口味独特的潮卤牛三宝牛肉面、选用珍稀食材的白松露鸡腿鸡汤面；在开市客推 出免撒料包的"宅家速食之光"PREMIUM优选杯，市场表现远超预期，终端销售数据亮眼。 最令消费者惊喜，也是对方便面有划时代意义的是——合麵，10元，把标准化的"正餐体验"装进速食。 合麵在"肉、菜、汤、面"上做足文章，4分钟就能泡出"劲道宽面+原切大块肉+脆嫩蔬菜+肉汁汤底"，满足了用户对"有饭有菜有汤"的正餐期待。凭借RP锁 鲜技术，合麵还解决了传统速食常见的味道不自然，让用户 ...

Core Viewpoint - The collaboration between White Elephant Food and Wang Yibo aims to elevate the brand's strategy and leverage the popularity of its products on social media platforms [1][4]. Group 1: Brand Collaboration - White Elephant Food announced Wang Yibo as its brand ambassador, enhancing the visibility of its popular products like "Soup is Good" and "Spicy Noodles" [1][4]. - The partnership is rooted in their shared background from Henan, which fosters emotional resonance with consumers [4]. - The marketing campaign includes a significant social media presence and the creation of themed locations to generate buzz [4]. Group 2: Product Innovation - White Elephant Food has consistently focused on user needs, leading to the creation of several hit products such as "Old Hen Soup Noodles" and "Coriander Noodles" [5][6]. - The "Soup is Good" product line has sold over 3 billion servings and has been the top-selling instant noodle product for five consecutive years [5]. - The introduction of "Coriander Noodles" has been validated by market data, and it is expected to become another flagship product for the brand [6]. Group 3: Brand Strategy - White Elephant Food has been dedicated to the concept of "Chinese Good Noodles" for 28 years, emphasizing quality and consumer connection [7]. - The company is undergoing a comprehensive brand upgrade, focusing on regional flavors and traditional Chinese culinary elements [8]. - The "Spicy" market has grown significantly, with White Elephant capitalizing on this trend through various spicy noodle products [8]. Group 4: Market Presence - By 2025, White Elephant Food plans to establish 15 production bases across China, covering over 30 provinces and exporting to 76 countries [9]. - The company has maintained rapid growth over the past two years, becoming a representative of successful domestic brands [9]. - The appointment of Wang Yibo as a brand ambassador is part of a strategy to engage younger consumers and revitalize the brand's image [9].

Core Viewpoint - Despite structural challenges in the market, instant noodles, particularly those from Kang Shifu, are experiencing a resurgence driven by product innovation and a shift in consumer preferences towards quality and health [2][4][22]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Kang Shifu has maintained the number one market share for ten consecutive years, demonstrating resilience against pessimistic narratives about the instant noodle market [4]. - The company has successfully launched popular products that have sparked significant consumer interest and discussions on social media platforms [2][4]. Group 2: Product Innovation - Kang Shifu has redefined instant noodles through innovative products that cater to evolving consumer demands, such as the "Special Special" noodles that mimic the taste of freshly cooked noodles [6][7]. - The introduction of "He Mian," a meal replacement noodle, emphasizes nutrition and convenience, featuring high-quality ingredients and a quick preparation time [7][9]. - Custom products for specific retail channels, like the "Tide Braised Beef Noodle" for Sam's Club, showcase Kang Shifu's ability to adapt to market needs and consumer preferences [9][25]. Group 3: Technological Advancements - The company has developed a unique cooking process that combines zero-frying technology with a patented single-basket boiling method, significantly enhancing the texture and taste of its noodles [14][16]. - Kang Shifu's investment in research and development, including the application of aerospace temperature control technology, has positioned it as a leader in food safety and quality [18]. Group 4: Market Strategy - Kang Shifu's approach to marketing and product launches has transformed instant noodles into a premium product category, leveraging social media to create buzz and engage consumers [22]. - The brand has successfully positioned its products as high-quality alternatives to traditional fast food and takeout, appealing to urban professionals seeking convenient meal options [23].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that Master Kong is undergoing a significant transformation in the instant noodle industry, aiming to redefine instant noodles from a quick meal to a high-quality dining experience with the launch of the "Special Fresh Noodle" [2][3]. Group 1: Value Reconstruction - The "Special Fresh Noodle" distinguishes itself from traditional instant noodles by focusing on quality rather than just convenience, offering a dining experience closer to freshly cooked noodles through innovative cooking techniques [3][4]. - This product aims to change consumer perceptions, positioning instant noodles as a viable option for quality meals rather than just a quick fix [5]. Group 2: Growth in a Saturated Market - The company believes that the instant noodle market still has potential for growth, as consumer needs in various dining scenarios remain unmet [6][7]. - Master Kong is focusing on technological innovation and market segmentation to create new opportunities, moving from a scale-based competition to a quality-driven approach [6][7]. Group 3: Long-term Vision - Master Kong's strategy is centered around respecting consumer needs, which has evolved significantly over the years, emphasizing health, taste, and emotional value [8][9]. - The company aims to maintain a balance between short-term market pressures and long-term value creation, focusing on continuous innovation and consumer satisfaction [10][11]. Group 4: Capital Market Signals - Despite market challenges, Master Kong is committed to innovation and quality, which is expected to drive long-term value and attract investor confidence [10][11]. - The company has demonstrated strong financial health, with a dividend yield exceeding 6%, reflecting its stable cash flow and governance structure [11]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Master Kong envisions instant noodles evolving into a versatile dining solution that fits various life scenarios, thus enhancing their role in modern dining [13][14]. - The company aims to lead the industry by continuously innovating and responding to changing consumer demands, reinforcing its commitment to long-term growth and consumer satisfaction [15][17].

Core Insights - The essence of "Special Fresh Instant Noodles" lies in quality improvement rather than just convenience, aiming to provide a dining experience closer to freshly cooked meals [1][3] - The instant noodle industry is not at a ceiling; instead, there is significant potential for growth by addressing diverse consumer needs across various eating scenarios [2][4] - The introduction of "Special Fresh Instant Noodles" represents a strategic milestone for the company, emphasizing long-term consumer respect and innovation [4][5] Product Innovation - The new product utilizes a unique cooking method that enhances the texture and flavor, aiming to transform consumer perceptions of instant noodles from a mere convenience food to a quality meal option [1][3] - The company is focusing on creating a "convenience + quality" market segment, which has been largely unexplored in recent years [1][2] Market Strategy - The company aims to redefine its relationship with consumers by diversifying its product offerings and ensuring coverage across various price points [3][4] - The strategy involves optimizing product structure, precise cost control, and enhancing emotional connections with younger consumers [7][8] Long-term Vision - The company believes in the importance of long-term investment in research and development, supply chain, and channel innovation to meet evolving consumer demands [4][6] - The goal is to position instant noodles as a versatile meal solution that fits into various lifestyle scenarios, thus expanding the market potential [10][11] Financial Performance - The company reported a 0.7 percentage point increase in gross margin year-on-year, indicating effective cost management despite market challenges [7][8] - The dividend yield exceeds 6%, reflecting a strong governance structure and stable cash flow generation capabilities [8][9] Industry Outlook - The instant noodle industry is undergoing a transition from quantity to quality, with significant opportunities for innovation and market revitalization [11][12] - The company's approach serves as a model for how traditional categories can rejuvenate through micro-innovation and process upgrades [11][12]

Core Viewpoint - The takeaway from the article is that the instant noodle industry is facing significant challenges due to the rise of food delivery services and the expansion of pre-packaged meals, leading to a decline in instant noodle sales [1] Industry Summary - The emergence of the food delivery battle in 2015 has negatively impacted the sales of instant noodles, which were once a staple food in the country [1] - The current second wave of the food delivery battle, along with the rapid growth of pre-packaged meals, has further exacerbated the already struggling instant noodle industry [1] - Despite the decline in popularity, instant noodles still hold sentimental value for many individuals, particularly as a source of comfort during late-night cravings [1]

Core Insights - The convenience food industry is facing challenges from the takeout sector, prompting companies to innovate and adapt to consumer demands [1][3] - Master Kong has introduced a new product, "He Mian," which utilizes RP fresh-lock technology to enhance the taste and quality of instant noodles, positioning it as a meal alternative [1][4] Group 1: Product Innovation - Master Kong has launched over 30 new flavors since 2025, creating a comprehensive price matrix that meets diverse consumer needs [3][4] - The "He Mian" product combines high-quality ingredients such as wide noodles, large cuts of meat, and fresh vegetables, providing a complete meal in just four minutes [4][8] - The use of advanced technologies like RP fresh-lock and aerospace temperature control ensures consistent quality and taste across different production conditions [12][14] Group 2: Market Positioning - Master Kong's strategy focuses on identifying unmet consumer needs and transforming them into real consumption opportunities, as demonstrated in the design of "He Mian" [8][11] - The company emphasizes quality and efficiency over price competition, aiming to elevate the entire industry standard through innovations in production and supply chain management [11][14] - Master Kong's proactive approach to market trends allows it to maintain a leading position in the industry, as evidenced by positive consumer feedback and strong sales performance [14][15] Group 3: Industry Impact - The convenience food sector is shifting from price competition to a focus on quality and efficiency, with Master Kong leading this transformation [11][14] - The company's commitment to food safety and quality has established it as a trusted brand, enhancing consumer confidence and setting a higher industry standard [11][12] - Master Kong's ability to adapt and innovate has positioned it as a pioneer in the convenience food market, opening new avenues for growth and consumer engagement [15]

Core Insights - The convenience food industry is facing challenges from the rise of delivery services, prompting companies to innovate and adapt their products to meet consumer demands [1][5] - Master Kong has introduced a new product called "He Mian," which utilizes RP fresh-lock technology to enhance the taste and quality of instant noodles, positioning it as a meal alternative [1][10] - The company has successfully launched over 30 new flavors since 2025, demonstrating its ability to meet diverse consumer needs and maintain a competitive edge in the market [3][18] Product Innovation - "He Mian" is designed to provide a complete meal experience with a combination of wide noodles, large chunks of meat, fresh vegetables, and a rich broth, all ready in just four minutes [8][9] - The product addresses the needs of young professionals who seek quick yet high-quality meal options during busy workdays [9][10] - The use of advanced technologies, such as aerospace temperature control and RP fresh-lock, enhances the product's quality and consumer perception, breaking the stereotype that instant food is inferior [15][17] Market Positioning - Master Kong's strategy focuses on identifying and addressing unmet consumer needs, transforming potential demands into actual consumption [10][18] - The company has established a comprehensive pricing strategy, offering products ranging from 3 to 20 yuan to cater to various consumer segments [10] - By leveraging technology and innovation, Master Kong aims to shift the industry focus from price competition to quality and efficiency [17] Industry Trends - The convenience food sector is experiencing a shift towards innovation and quality improvement, as highlighted by industry analysts [5][14] - Master Kong's approach to product development emphasizes the importance of understanding consumer trends and preferences, allowing it to stay ahead of competitors [18] - The company's commitment to food safety and quality has positioned it as a leader in the industry, setting higher standards for competitors [14][15]