据证券之星公开数据整理，近期养元饮品(603156)发布2025年中报。根据财报显示，养元饮品净利润同 比下降27.76%。截至本报告期末，公司营业总收入24.65亿元，同比下降16.19%，归母净利润7.44亿 元，同比下降27.76%。按单季度数据看，第二季度营业总收入6.06亿元，同比下降3.18%，第二季度归 母净利润1.02亿元，同比下降32.46%。 本次财报公布的各项数据指标表现不尽如人意。其中，毛利率45.65%，同比减2.85%，净利率30.17%， 同比减13.8%，销售费用、管理费用、财务费用总计3.52亿元，三费占营收比14.29%，同比增27.29%， 每股净资产7.18元，同比减6.42%，每股经营性现金流0.3元，同比增1364.26%，每股收益0.59元，同比 减27.51% | 项目 | 2024年中报 | 2025年中报 | 同比增幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(元) | 29.42 Z | 24.65 Z | -16.19% | | 归母净利润(元) | 10.3亿 | 7.44亿 | -27.76% | | 扣非净利润(元) ...

Industry Overview - The walnut industry in Kashgar, Xinjiang, is a significant contributor to local farmers' income, with many farmers experiencing increased profits from walnut cultivation [1][2] - The total planting area for walnuts in Kashgar has reached 202,000 acres, with an annual production of 433,000 tons, accounting for 34.69% and 42.75% of Xinjiang's total walnut area and production, respectively [2] Agricultural Practices - The introduction of the "Wen 185" walnut variety has led to an average yield of over 200 kg per acre, with stable market prices since its promotion in 2015 [2] - Local agricultural experts are actively assisting farmers with irrigation and pest control, contributing to improved walnut harvests [2] Processing and Value Addition - The introduction of 35 walnut processing enterprises in Kashgar has resulted in the development of various processed walnut products, significantly increasing the industry's value [3] - The annual processing output value of the walnut industry in Kashgar exceeds 2 billion yuan, with innovative products like yogurt probiotic walnut kernels achieving sales of 1.5 million yuan [3] Market Expansion - Kashgar has successfully expanded both domestic and international markets, with 15 export companies exporting nearly 30,000 tons of walnuts annually [3] - The ongoing construction of a 10 million yuan walnut deep processing production line in Yecheng County indicates a strong commitment to enhancing the walnut industry [5]

Core Insights - The traditional plant-based protein beverage sector in China has not benefited from the health upgrade trend, with major companies like Yangyuan Beverage and Chengde Lulu reporting significant revenue declines in Q1 2025 [1][2][5] - In contrast, the Danish oat milk brand Oatly has seen a substantial revenue increase of 37.6% in the Chinese market during the same period, highlighting a divergence in performance within the sector [1][5] Company Performance - Yangyuan Beverage reported Q1 2025 revenue of 1.86 billion yuan, a decrease of 19.7% year-on-year, with a net profit of 640 million yuan, down approximately 27% [1] - Chengde Lulu's Q1 2025 revenue was 1 billion yuan, reflecting an 18.4% year-on-year decline, with a net profit of 220 million yuan, down 12.5% [1] - Both companies experienced a revenue increase in Q4 2024, with Yangyuan Beverage growing by 16.1% and Chengde Lulu by 22.7%, but overall annual performance showed a decline [1] Market Dynamics - The decline in traditional plant-based protein beverages is attributed to product aging and lack of innovation, with consumers favoring alternatives like coconut water and herbal drinks [5] - The rise of new competitors in the plant-based beverage market, including nut and snack companies, has further diluted market demand for traditional offerings [5] - Oatly's growth is linked to strategic partnerships and entry into new retail channels, which contrasts with the domestic companies' reliance on traditional retail [5][6] Strategic Initiatives - Yangyuan Beverage is exploring new growth avenues through investments, including a significant 1.6 billion yuan stake in Changjiang Storage Technology, indicating a shift towards diversification [7] - Both Yangyuan and Chengde Lulu are attempting to innovate their product lines, with Chengde Lulu launching new products like "Almond+" and Yangyuan focusing on health-oriented offerings [6][7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [9] Core Views - The company has shown significant profit release for the year, although Q1 performance faced short-term pressure [5] - Cost optimization has effectively improved profit margins, with a notable increase in net profit margin for the year [5] - The walnut milk business has improved profitability, while functional beverages have shown strong performance [6] - The company is expanding its market presence through a comprehensive channel strategy, particularly in the North China region [7][8] - Future earnings per share (EPS) projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 1.05, 1.13, and 1.23 yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 23, 22, and 20 times [9] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, total revenue and net profit attributable to the parent company were 60.58 billion yuan and 17.22 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year changes of -2% and +17% [5] - Q1 2025 revenue and net profit were 18.60 billion yuan and 6.42 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year declines of -20% and -27% [5] - The gross margin and net margin for 2024 were 46.53% and 28.43%, showing increases of 0.8 and 4.6 percentage points year-on-year [5] Business Segments - Revenue from walnut milk and functional beverages in 2024 was 53.73 billion yuan and 6.49 billion yuan, with year-on-year changes of -6% and +45% [6] - The walnut milk segment's gross margin improved to 48.44%, an increase of 1 percentage point year-on-year [6] Market Strategy - Direct sales and distribution revenue in 2024 were 2.94 billion yuan and 57.29 billion yuan, with year-on-year changes of +17% and -3% [7] - E-commerce sales reached 1.95 billion yuan, marking a 54% increase [7] Earnings Forecast - The company is expected to continue channel expansion for walnut milk products and maintain growth in functional beverages, despite short-term pressures from overall consumption and investment losses [9] - The projected revenue for 2024 is 60.58 billion yuan, with a decline of 1.7% year-on-year [11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [9] Core Views - The company has shown significant profit release for the year, although Q1 performance faced short-term pressure. Total revenue and net profit for 2024 were 60.58 billion and 17.22 billion yuan, respectively, with a year-on-year change of -2% and +17%. Q1 2025 revenue and net profit were 18.60 billion and 6.42 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of -20% and -27% [5][9] - The profitability continues to improve, with net profit margin effectively increasing. The gross margin and net margin for 2024 were 46.53% and 28.43%, showing a year-on-year increase of 0.8 and 4.6 percentage points [5] - The walnut milk business has seen improved profitability, with revenue of 53.73 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of -6%, while functional beverages grew by +45% [6] - The company is expanding its sales channels, with notable performance in the North China region, where revenue increased by +11% in 2024 [7][8] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, total revenue was 60.58 billion yuan, and net profit was 17.22 billion yuan, with respective year-on-year changes of -2% and +17%. Q4 2024 saw revenue and net profit of 18.29 billion and 4.93 billion yuan, with year-on-year increases of +16% and +177% [5] - For Q1 2025, total revenue and net profit were 18.60 billion and 6.42 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year declines of -20% and -27% [5] Profitability Metrics - The gross margin for 2024 was 46.53%, and the net margin was 28.43%, both showing improvements from the previous year. For Q1 2025, the gross margin was 46.21%, and the net margin was 34.53% [5] - The company effectively reduced its expense ratios, with sales and management expense ratios for 2024 at 11.76% and 1.23%, respectively, showing year-on-year decreases [5] Business Segments - Walnut milk revenue was 53.73 billion yuan in 2024, down -6% year-on-year, while functional beverages reached 6.49 billion yuan, up +45% [6] - The company is actively launching new products to enhance its breakfast consumption scenarios, including red date and oat walnut milk [6] Regional Performance - In 2024, direct sales and distribution revenue were 2.94 billion and 57.29 billion yuan, with year-on-year changes of +17% and -3%. E-commerce sales grew by 54% [7] - Revenue from different regions showed a mixed performance, with North China being a standout with an 11% increase [8] Earnings Forecast - The company is expected to continue channel expansion for walnut milk products and functional beverages, with projected EPS for 2025-2027 at 1.05, 1.13, and 1.23 yuan, respectively [9]

Core Viewpoint - Yangyuan Beverage (603156.SH) reported a decline in revenue but an increase in net profit for 2024, indicating a "profit without revenue growth" scenario. The company is facing challenges in its core walnut milk product market, prompting it to seek growth through cross-industry investments [1][2]. Financial Performance - In 2024, Yangyuan Beverage achieved revenue of 6.058 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.69%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.722 billion yuan, an increase of 17.35% [1]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw a significant decline in revenue across all regions, with an overall drop of 20.44%, and revenue and net profit down 19.7% and 26.95% year-on-year, respectively [1][2]. - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company experienced a dual decline in performance, with revenue and net profit decreasing by 7.81% and 4.69%, respectively [2]. Product Performance - The walnut milk product, represented by "Six Walnuts," saw a sales volume decline of 4.71% to 571,663.84 tons, and revenue decreased by 5.86% to 5.373 billion yuan, marking three consecutive years of revenue failing to exceed 6 billion yuan [2][3]. - Despite a significant increase in inventory by 33% due to pre-Spring Festival stocking, the core product's performance remains under pressure [2]. Regional Performance - The company’s revenue from offline distribution channels decreased by 2.99% to 5.729 billion yuan, with only the Northeast and Northwest regions showing positive growth [3][5]. - In the first quarter of 2025, revenue from the distribution model plummeted by 22.55% to 1.644 billion yuan, with all seven major regions reporting declines [3]. Investment Strategy - Yangyuan Beverage is attempting to find new growth avenues through cross-industry investments, recently announcing a 1.6 billion yuan investment in Changjiang Storage Technology Holding Co., acquiring a 0.99% stake [1][6]. - The company has a history of significant investments, with annual long-term equity investments exceeding 1 billion yuan from 2017 to 2022, but these investments have not yielded expected returns, leading to consecutive years of investment losses [6][7]. - The company’s investment in private equity funds has been particularly problematic, with substantial losses reported in recent years, raising concerns about the sustainability of its investment strategy [6][7].