[Table_Summary] 我们认为，从练内功到带农户，从富农户到兴产业，德康农牧在生猪养殖行业探索了一条真正 实现联农带农和富农强农的产业振兴之路。深耕育种打牢养殖根基，成功构建起高壁垒的自主 繁育体系；二号农场重构养殖环节的生产关系，最大程度激发农户养殖的潜力和动能；"百村百 万"工程带动二号农场模式的快速落地，更好地赋能乡村振兴从而实现强农富农。在生猪养殖 行业进入高质量发展新时代，德康农牧以"不难不做"的企业基因，将行业难题系统性地转化 为自身强大的护城河，最终形成"低投入、高周转、高回报"的生猪养殖体系，持续重点推荐。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 顾熀乾 陈佳 SAC：S0490519060003 SAC：S0490513080003 SFC：BQT624 [Table_scodeMsg1] 港股研究丨公司深度丨德康农牧（02419.HK） [Table_Title] 德康农牧深度系列二：联农标杆，富农典范 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 28 %% %% %% %% resea ...

当前自繁自养成本约 12 元/斤，放养公司代养成本约 6.2-6.3 元/斤，头 部企业断奶仔猪成本约 5.75 元/斤，行业平均水平 6-6.5 元/斤。高于此 水平则不建议继续从事该行业。 Q&A 春节前后生猪价格走势如何？有哪些因素影响了这一变化？ 春节前后的生猪价格走势呈现出较为复杂的波动趋势。根据我们的监测数据， 1 月份的均价预估为 13 元，但实际监测到的数据为 12.8 元。整个价格走势在 10 月中旬触底后，经历了多次波动，到 1 月中下旬达到高点 13.2 元。然而， 到目前（腊月十八），价格又回落至 12 元左右，有些公司统计的数据甚至跌 破了 12 元。 春节前后，市场供需关系对价格产生了显著影响。从供给端来看， 春节前屠宰量逐步增加，但整体需求并未如预期般强劲。例如，冬至当天屠宰 量达到 32.4 万头，而腊八时也仅恢复到 30 万头左右，并未突破冬至的屠宰量。 这表明尽管有季节性需求高峰，但整体消费并不如预期理想。 从需求端来看， 根据官方数据，2025 年家庭人均猪肉消费较 2024 年下降了 5%以上，这反映 出经济环境对消费能力的抑制。此外，餐饮业表现不佳，也进一步压制了猪肉 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking it as a first-time recommendation [13]. Core Insights - The report highlights that Dekang Agriculture has successfully transitioned from a heavy asset model to a light asset model, becoming a leader in China's pig farming industry. The company has established a low-investment, high-turnover, and high-return pig farming system, achieving a per-head profit of 403 RMB in 2024, with ROE and ROIC at 38% and 29% respectively, outperforming peers [4][18]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Dekang Agriculture has innovatively transformed its business model, overcoming initial challenges such as training difficulties, high investment, and trust issues. The company has effectively responded to the African swine fever crisis, turning industry challenges into competitive advantages [4][18]. Profitability and Growth - The company has a significant cost advantage in pig farming, with a per-head profit that ranks among the top tier of listed pig farming companies. The number of pigs slaughtered has increased from 1.37 million in 2020 to 8.78 million in 2024, with a projected total cost of 13.6 RMB per kilogram in 2024, the best in the industry [9][34][39]. Management and Strategy - The management team has extensive experience in the agricultural sector, with a focus on long-term growth and innovation. The company emphasizes a value system of "big sacrifice for big gain, not difficult to do, and hard work," fostering a dedicated and professional team [10][44]. Development Path - Dekang Agriculture has built a robust breeding system and has been proactive in addressing the challenges of traditional pig farming. The introduction of the "No. 2 farm model" has allowed for a more efficient and profitable farming approach, with a focus on training and support for farmers [11][54]. Market Position - The company has seen a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 44% in pig slaughtering from 2018 to 2024, significantly outpacing the industry average of 0.2%. The pig farming segment contributes 81% of the company's revenue and 93% of its gross profit in 2024 [24][31].