Investment Rating - The report suggests a neutral investment rating for the agricultural sector, indicating that the expected changes in the industry will be relatively stable compared to the broader market [68]. Core Insights - The agricultural sector index has underperformed compared to the Shanghai Composite Index, with a weekly decline of 2.94% [13]. - The pig farming industry is experiencing a continued decline in prices, with an expected increase in supply in April, leading to further price drops in the short term [3][22]. - Poultry farming is facing pressure on prices, particularly for white chickens, but there is potential for recovery if consumer demand improves [4][36]. - The beef market is expected to see price increases as it enters the consumption peak season, while dairy cow inventory is decreasing [5][42]. - The planting industry is stabilizing, with potential improvements if there are significant reductions in grain production due to external uncertainties [6][46]. - Feed prices have stabilized, and the aquaculture sector is showing signs of improvement in pricing [56]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The agricultural sector index closed at 2842.41 points, down 2.94% week-on-week, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index [13]. 2. Key Data Tracking 2.1 Pig Farming - As of March 27, the national pig price was 9.39 yuan/kg, down 5.15% week-on-week, with a significant loss in farming profits [21][22]. - The average weight of pigs at slaughter was 128.71 kg, indicating a potential for further price declines due to supply pressures [22]. 2.2 Poultry Farming - The average price for white feather chickens was 7.11 yuan/kg, down 3.00% week-on-week, while profits for parent stock chickens were slightly positive [36]. - The overall profitability in poultry farming remains under pressure, but there is potential for recovery with improved consumer demand [4][36]. 2.3 Livestock - The price of live cattle in Shandong was 27.03 yuan/kg, stable week-on-week, with a year-on-year increase of 12.25% [5][42]. - The beef market is expected to strengthen as it enters the peak consumption season, while dairy cow inventory is decreasing [5][42]. 2.4 Planting Industry - Domestic corn prices were 2334.29 yuan/ton, showing slight increases, while uncertainties in global weather may affect crop yields [45][46]. - The planting sector is stabilizing, with potential improvements if significant reductions in grain production occur [6][46]. 2.5 Feed & Aquaculture - Feed prices for fattening pigs and poultry have remained stable, while aquaculture prices are showing upward trends [56].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [3] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of seed industry revitalization, highlighting government support and the need for technological self-reliance in seed production [1][11] - In the pig farming sector, the average price of pigs has dropped to 9.96 CNY/kg, reflecting a 0.90% decrease week-on-week, primarily due to oversupply and seasonal demand decline [2][12] - The report suggests that the pig farming industry is likely to accelerate capacity reduction due to widespread losses, with specific recommendations for companies in the breeding and feed sectors [5][12] Summary by Sections Planting Industry - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs is focusing on seed industry revitalization, aiming for technological independence and improved seed quality [1][11] - Key companies recommended for investment include Beidahuang and Suqian Agricultural Development, as well as leading seed companies like Dabeinong and Longping High-Tech [1][11] Pig Farming - The average price of pigs is currently 9.96 CNY/kg, with a significant decline in profits for self-bred and purchased piglets, leading to a forecasted acceleration in capacity reduction [2][5][12] - Companies recommended for investment in the pig farming sector include Muyuan Foods, New Hope Liuhe, and WH Group, among others [5][12] Market Data - The report tracks key agricultural product prices, noting that corn is priced at 2453.27 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 0.54% [22][23] - The average price of wheat is reported at 2595.63 CNY/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 1.34% [25][26] - The average price of cotton in Xinjiang is 16670 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 0.85% [41][42]

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Recommended [3] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of seed industry revitalization, highlighting the need for technological independence and self-sufficiency in seed sources. The government is committed to enhancing the strength of seed enterprises and optimizing the market environment for seed resources [1][12]. - In the pig farming sector, the average price of live pigs has dropped to 9.96 CNY/kg, reflecting a 0.90% decrease week-on-week. This decline is attributed to oversupply and seasonal demand fluctuations, leading to increased pressure on large-scale farms to reduce inventory [2][13]. - The report suggests that the pig farming industry is likely to accelerate capacity reduction due to widespread losses, with specific recommendations for companies in the breeding and feed sectors that are expected to benefit from cost improvements and higher future output elasticity [5][13]. Summary by Sections Planting Industry - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs is focusing on seed industry revitalization, emphasizing the need for organized and systematic research and breeding efforts. The goal is to enhance the quality of seed resources and promote the commercialization of breeding technologies [1][12]. - Key companies recommended for investment in the planting sector include Beidahuang and Suqian Agricultural Development, as well as leading seed companies like Dabeinong and Longping High-Tech [1][12]. Pig Farming - The average price of live pigs has decreased to 9.96 CNY/kg, with a significant drop in profits for self-bred and purchased piglets, indicating a challenging market environment [2][5][13]. - The report highlights the need for capacity control measures among pig farming enterprises to better align supply and demand, with specific companies recommended for investment, including Muyuan Foods, New Hope Liuhe, and WH Group [5][13]. Key Agricultural Products - Corn: The average price is 2453.27 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 0.54% [26]. - Wheat: The average price is 2595.63 CNY/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 1.34% [29]. - Soybeans: The average price is 4277.37 CNY/ton, remaining stable week-on-week [42].

- The report focuses on the investment value of the CSI All Index Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery Index (930910.CSI), which is a secondary industry index under the CSI All Index series, reflecting the overall performance of the agriculture sector in the A-share market[39][40][42] - The index adopts a fully replicated method to construct the investment portfolio, aiming to minimize tracking deviation and annualized tracking error, with a target of absolute daily tracking deviation not exceeding 0.2% and annualized tracking error not exceeding 2%[9][89] - The index's sample adjustment rules include semi-annual adjustments implemented on the next trading day after the second Friday of June and December each year, and temporary adjustments in special circumstances such as delisting or corporate restructuring[41][45] - The weighting and weight rules use adjusted market capitalization weighting, with a single stock weight cap of 15%, and the top two weighted stocks are highly concentrated[46][47] - The index's industry distribution is characterized by "core focus and diversified collaboration," with a significant tilt towards two popular sub-sectors: pig farming (47.41%) and seed planting (15.52%), reflecting the core value and investment potential of these sectors[51][52] - The index demonstrates strong cyclical attributes, with a long-term annualized return exceeding 12% over the past 20 years, significantly outperforming broader indices like the Shanghai Composite Index and CSI 300[67][68] - The agriculture sector's valuation is currently in a low-to-neutral range, with a PE-TTM of 24.56x as of March 2026, corresponding to a historical percentile of 27.06%, providing a certain safety margin[76][85]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry: Swine Industry Key Points 1. **Pig Price Decline**: As of March 20, the average price of live pigs in China has dropped to 9.87 yuan/kg, marking a recent cycle low. This decline has led to significant losses for farmers, with average losses reaching 291.97 yuan per head, approaching the previous cycle's maximum loss of 306.56 yuan per head. The combination of increasing feed costs and a pessimistic outlook has weakened the profitability of fattening pigs, further suppressing the willingness to restock piglets [1][2][3]. 2. **Weak Restocking Season**: The typical post-New Year restocking season for piglets is underperforming, with prices falling to 294 yuan per head, down from 557 yuan per head in the same period last year. The average profit per head has narrowed to 14 yuan, compared to 237 yuan in the previous year. This low demand is expected to lead to accelerated culling of breeding sows, creating a feedback loop that could hasten capacity reduction in the industry [2][3]. 3. **Investment Recommendations**: The report suggests focusing on companies with excess profitability potential amidst a tightening market. Key recommendations include leading breeding companies such as Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs, as well as other related stocks like Tian Kang Biological and New Hope Liuhe. The report emphasizes the importance of core assets and beta configuration in the current market [3]. Industry: Feed and Animal Health Key Points 1. **Feed Sector Dynamics**: The report highlights the rising prices of fishmeal, with CNF reference prices reaching 2500 USD/ton. Major feed companies like Haida Group are expected to continue raising prices across all feed categories, reflecting their pricing power and profitability amid rising raw material costs. The report recommends Haida Group for its market share and performance potential [3]. 2. **Animal Health Sector**: The report notes the importance of innovation in the animal health sector, particularly in the face of intense competition. The emergence of new products, especially in the pet health market, is expected to drive growth. Companies like Reap Bio and Biokang are highlighted as potential beneficiaries of this trend [3]. Industry: Crop Production Key Points 1. **Grain Security Strategy**: The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the importance of grain production capacity, aiming for a target of approximately 1.45 trillion jin. The focus is on increasing yields through improved agricultural practices and technology [4][5]. 2. **Seed Industry Focus**: The report stresses the need for advancements in the seed industry to ensure food security, with a push for self-sufficiency in seed sources. Companies like Longping High-Tech and Dabeinong are mentioned as key players in this sector [4][5]. Industry: Poultry Sector Key Points 1. **Chicken Market Dynamics**: The report discusses the impact of avian influenza on breeding stock imports, leading to uncertainty in supply. The price of broiler chicks has increased, while the price of live chickens remains stable. The report suggests that the industry is at a turning point after three years of downturn, with potential for recovery [6][7]. 2. **Egg Market Trends**: The report notes a slight increase in chick and egg prices, with the average price of commercial chicks at 3.56 yuan per chick. The spring restocking season is expected to support prices, with a focus on companies with strong market positions like Xiaoming Co. [7][8]. Industry: Beef Sector Key Points 1. **Beef Price Trends**: The report indicates a rise in prices across the beef supply chain, with prices for fattened bulls at 26.02 yuan/kg, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.88%. The dairy sector is still experiencing low prices, with fresh milk prices at 3.02 yuan/kg [8][9]. 2. **Investment Outlook**: The report expresses optimism for the beef sector, particularly as the dairy cow reduction phase nears completion and a super cycle for beef emerges. Companies with strong resources and a "milk-meat linkage" model are expected to perform well [9]. Industry: Pet Market Key Points 1. **Growth of Pet Market**: The pet market is projected to grow significantly, with a forecasted market size of 312.6 billion yuan by 2025. Domestic brands are gaining market share through innovation and localization strategies [10]. 2. **Export Trends**: Pet food exports have seen substantial growth, with a reported increase of 38.57% in quantity and 15.06% in value in early 2026. Companies like Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Co. are highlighted as key players in this expanding market [10].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a neutral investment rating for the agricultural sector, indicating that the expected changes in the industry will be relatively stable compared to the broader market [70]. Core Insights - The agricultural sector index has underperformed compared to the Shanghai Composite Index, with a weekly decline of 4.50% [13]. - The report highlights ongoing pressures in the pig farming industry, with prices expected to continue declining due to supply-side pressures and a potential increase in slaughter volumes [3][21]. - In poultry farming, while white feather chicken prices remain under pressure, yellow feather chicken prices have shown resilience due to improved downstream demand [4][35]. - The beef market is anticipated to see price increases as it enters the consumption peak season, while dairy cow inventories are decreasing, indicating a potential recovery in milk prices [5][39][42]. - The planting sector is experiencing tight supply and demand dynamics, with corn prices showing slight upward movement amid external uncertainties [6][45][46]. - Feed prices have stabilized, and the aquaculture sector is showing signs of improvement in pricing [56]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The agricultural index closed at 2928.56 points, down 4.50% week-on-week, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index [13][14]. 2. Key Data Tracking 2.1 Pig Farming - The average price of live pigs is 9.90 yuan/kg, with a weekly decline of 1.79%. The average weight of pigs at slaughter is 128.62 kg, indicating a slight increase [21][22]. - The report anticipates further price declines in the short term due to supply pressures and ongoing losses in the sector [3][22]. 2.2 Poultry Farming - The average price for white feather chickens is 7.33 yuan/kg, showing a weekly increase of 1.66%. The profitability of parent stock and broiler chickens has improved slightly [34][35]. 2.3 Livestock - Live cattle prices in Shandong are 27.03 yuan/kg, with a year-on-year increase of 13.86%. The report expects beef prices to rise as the consumption season approaches [5][40][42]. 2.4 Planting Industry - Domestic corn prices are 2332.86 yuan/ton, with a slight increase of 0.18% week-on-week. The report notes potential improvements in the planting sector if there are significant reductions in grain production [6][45][46]. 2.5 Feed & Aquaculture - Feed prices for fattening pigs are 3.36 yuan/kg, showing a weekly increase of 0.30%. Aquaculture prices for various species have remained stable [56].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [1][45]. Core Insights - The SW agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry outperformed the CSI 300 index, rising by 1.03% from March 6 to March 19, 2026, exceeding the index by approximately 2.42 percentage points [11]. - Over half of the sub-sectors recorded positive returns during the same period, with notable gains in the breeding, animal health, feed, and agricultural product processing sectors, while planting and fishery sectors experienced declines [12]. - The overall price-to-book (PB) ratio for the industry is approximately 2.68 times, reflecting a slight recovery in valuation, which remains at a historical low level, around the 60.4 percentile since 2006 [19]. Industry Important Data - **Pig Farming**: - The average price of external three-line pigs decreased from 10.48 CNY/kg to 10.26 CNY/kg during the reporting period [22]. - The breeding sow inventory reached 39.58 million heads by the end of January 2026, a slight decrease of 0.08% [22]. - The prices of corn and soybean meal have increased slightly, with corn priced at 2455.29 CNY/ton and soybean meal at 3396 CNY/ton as of March 19, 2026 [24]. - Profitability for self-bred pigs was reported at -283.15 CNY/head, while purchased piglets yielded a loss of -118.18 CNY/head [26]. - **Poultry Farming**: - The average price for meat chicken and egg chicken chicks rose to 2.92 CNY/chick and 3.5 CNY/chick, respectively [28]. - The average price for white feather meat chickens was 7.21 CNY/kg, with profitability at 0.11 CNY/chick, both showing a slight decline [32]. - **Aquaculture**: - The average wholesale price for crucian carp and carp was reported at 19.67 CNY/kg and 14.6 CNY/kg, respectively, both showing a slight decrease [36]. Industry Important News - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs emphasized the need for greater efforts in promoting seed industry revitalization, aiming for technological self-reliance and control over seed sources, which is expected to benefit leading companies in the seed industry [39]. Company Important News - Notable companies to watch include: - Muyuan Foods (002714): A leading domestic pig farming company with cost and scale advantages [46]. - Wens Foodstuff Group (300498): A leader in both pig and yellow feather chicken farming with strong cost control [46]. - Haida Group (002311): A leading feed company expected to maintain steady market share growth [46]. - Reap Bio (300119): A leader in the animal health sector with a growing product matrix for pet health [46]. - Longping High-Tech (000998): A leading seed company with advanced transgenic reserves [46].

Report Overview - The report focuses on the transformation of the agricultural products industry from ensuring stable supply to achieving high-quality and efficient development, with policy support playing a key role [2]. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The 2026 government work report and two - sessions proposals outline a clear roadmap of "ensuring stable supply, improving quality and efficiency, and enabling technology" for the agricultural products industry. A series of policy combinations covering the entire chain from production, storage, processing to trade will promote the upgrade of China's agriculture [2]. Summary by Section Main Grains - The government sets the grain output target at about 1.4 trillion catties in 2026, and the "15th Five - Year Plan Outline (Draft)" further raises the comprehensive grain production capacity target to about 1.45 trillion catties. The core drivers of the main grain sectors such as rice and wheat come from seed industry revitalization and technological empowerment. With policy support, prices will remain stable with small fluctuations. The industry will transform from "quantity guarantee" to "both quantity and quality improvement" [4]. Corn - Corn is the main variety in the "New Round of 100 - billion - jin Grain Production Capacity Improvement Action". Policies focus on "both quantity and quality, with priority on efficiency". On the supply side, subsidies are stabilized and the seed industry is revitalized to increase yield. On the demand side, deep - processing capacity is promoted in the main production areas, and pig production capacity is regulated. A "market purchase + state support" framework is established to keep prices in a reasonable range. In 2026, the corn market is expected to achieve a virtuous development pattern of "stable quantity, improved quality, stable price, and increased efficiency" [5]. Soybeans - The government aims to consolidate and improve soybean and oilseed production capacity. The 2026 No. 1 Central Document requires expanding soybean production space and improving subsidy policies. Proposals focus on planting mode innovation and variety research and development. Domestic soybean production is expected to increase, and the self - sufficiency rate will rise, reducing dependence on imports [6]. Livestock Farming - The government emphasizes "anti - involution" reform in the livestock farming sector. The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs improves early - warning mechanisms. For meat and egg chicken farming, inter - provincial linkage storage mechanisms are explored, and green development is promoted. The industry will transform towards moderate scale, greenness, and high - quality, with increased industry concentration [7]. Imported Oilseeds - The supply security of oilseeds is a focus. China's edible oil self - sufficiency rate is only about 34.2%. Policies include expanding domestic production space, implementing the "Peanut Oil Supply Upgrade Action", and advocating a "reduced - oil" diet. A "domestic - based, diversified" supply pattern will be established [8][11].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry, with the industry index outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index [13][14]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the pig farming sector is experiencing a decline in prices, with supply pressures likely to continue affecting prices in the short term. However, the long-term outlook remains positive due to potential profit recovery for leading companies [3][20]. - In poultry farming, while white feather chicken prices are under pressure, the yellow feather chicken market shows signs of improvement due to better demand and supply adjustments. The overall profitability in the poultry sector is expected to improve as consumer demand recovers [4][32]. - The beef market is entering a consumption peak, with prices expected to rise. The dairy sector is also seeing a reduction in cow inventory, which may lead to price stabilization in the second half of the year [5][38]. - The planting sector is experiencing tight supply and demand dynamics, with corn prices showing an upward trend. The overall planting industry is stabilizing, and any significant reduction in grain production could enhance the sector's outlook [6][41]. - The feed and aquaculture sectors are seeing stable feed prices, while aquatic product prices are on the rise, indicating a positive trend in these markets [54]. Summary by Sections Pig Farming - As of March 13, the national commodity pig price is 10.08 CNY/kg, down 2.33% week-on-week. The average weight of pigs at slaughter is 128.55 kg, which is relatively high compared to historical data. The sector is expected to see further price declines in the short term due to supply pressures and policy-driven capacity reductions [19][20]. - The report recommends focusing on low-cost, high-quality enterprises such as Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuff Group, which are expected to benefit from the recovery in pig prices in the medium to long term [3][20]. Poultry Farming - The average price for white feather chickens is 7.21 CNY/kg, showing a slight decrease. However, yellow feather chicken prices are improving due to better demand. The overall profitability in the poultry sector is expected to improve as consumer demand recovers [31][32]. Livestock - As of March 6, live cattle prices in Shandong are 27.00 CNY/kg, with a year-on-year increase of 14.60%. The beef market is expected to see price increases as it enters a consumption peak. The dairy sector is also experiencing a reduction in cow inventory, which may lead to price stabilization in the second half of the year [5][35][38]. Planting Industry - As of March 13, domestic corn prices are 2328.57 CNY/ton, up 5.04% week-on-week. The planting sector is stabilizing, and any significant reduction in grain production could enhance the sector's outlook [41][42]. Feed and Aquaculture - As of March 6, feed prices for fattening pigs are stable at 3.35 CNY/kg, while aquatic product prices are showing positive trends, indicating a favorable market environment for these sectors [54].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry, with the industry index outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index [2][13]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the pig farming sector is experiencing a decline in prices, with supply-side pressures likely to continue affecting prices. The average weight of pigs at market is currently 128.55 kg, which is higher than historical averages, suggesting potential for further price drops [3][19]. - In the poultry farming sector, the supply of white feather chickens remains ample, keeping prices under pressure, while yellow feather chicken prices are showing resilience due to improved downstream demand [4][32]. - The beef market is entering a consumption peak, with live cattle prices in Shandong at 27.00 CNY/kg, indicating a year-on-year increase of 14.60%. The dairy sector is also seeing a gradual recovery in prices, with average purchase prices for raw milk stabilizing [5][36]. - The planting sector is witnessing fluctuations in corn prices, with a current price of 2328.57 CNY/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 5.04%. The overall planting sector is stabilizing, with potential improvements if there are significant reductions in grain production [6][42]. Summary by Sections Pig Farming - Current national pig prices are at 10.08 CNY/kg, down 2.33% week-on-week. The average profit for self-bred pigs is -283.15 CNY/head, indicating significant losses in the sector [19][20]. - The report suggests that the industry is likely to see accelerated capacity reduction due to ongoing losses and policy adjustments [20]. Poultry Farming - The average price for white feather chickens is 7.21 CNY/kg, with a slight decrease of 0.14% week-on-week. The profitability of parent stock chickens has improved slightly, indicating a potential recovery in the sector [32][33]. - The report anticipates that if consumer demand improves, poultry prices may rebound, with a focus on companies like Lihua Co., Shengnong Development, and Yisheng Co. [33]. Livestock - The beef market is expected to see price increases as it enters a consumption peak, with live cattle prices showing a positive trend. The dairy sector is also stabilizing, with raw milk prices expected to recover in the latter half of the year [5][39]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the meat and dairy sectors for potential upward trends [39]. Planting Sector - The report notes that corn prices are experiencing upward pressure, with a current price of 2328.57 CNY/ton. The planting sector is stabilizing, with potential improvements if grain production decreases significantly [6][42]. - Companies involved in seed production and agricultural technology are highlighted as potential investment opportunities [43]. Feed and Aquaculture - Feed prices are stabilizing, with pig feed prices at 3.35 CNY/kg. Aquaculture prices are showing positive trends, with stable prices for various seafood products [53][54].