投资建议 行情回顾： 本周（2025.08.18-2025.08.22）农林牧渔（申万）指数收于 2941.27 点(周环比+3.72%)， 沪深 300 指数收于 4378.00 点（周环比+4.18%），深证综指收于 2393.21 点（周环比+4.02%），上证综指收于 3825.76 点（周环比+3.49%），科 创板收于 1247.86 点（周环比+13.31%)，农林牧渔行业指数跑输上证综指。 生猪养殖： 本周生猪出栏均重为 127.98 公斤/头，价格偏弱下散户出栏积极性提升，本周行业冻品库容率环比+0.12%至 17.32%， 在价格持续下跌以及部分地区天气转凉的背景下，生猪出栏节奏有所放缓，整体看出栏均重依旧处于较高位置，后续 生猪价格仍存在较大压力。目前政策端对能繁母猪存栏向下调控方向不变，此外，环保管理持续推进，各个省份陆续 加强环保管理，部分母猪场因环保因素开始整顿。当下猪价表现下成本较差企业已经出现亏损，预计养殖成本较差企 业已经开始调减产能，而在供给压力持续后移的背景下，预计短期生猪价格依旧存在较大压力。若行业产能有序调控， 预计近期能繁母猪存栏出现下降，中期行业盈利中枢有望提升。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The "Guanghong No. 3" white feather broiler chicken has been approved as the first small-sized white feather meat chicken variety in South China, showcasing significant advancements in poultry breeding technology and contributing to the revitalization of the poultry industry in Guangdong [2][6][7]. Group 1: Product Development - The "Guanghong No. 3" white chicken breeding system has been officially certified by the National Animal Genetic Resources Committee, with the certificate number being Agricultural 09 New Variety Certificate No. 113 [3]. - This breeding system is a result of collaboration between Guangdong Guanghong Holdings Co., Ltd. and South China Agricultural University, supported by the Guangdong Provincial Department of Agriculture and Rural Affairs [9][10]. - The breeding process involved specialized strain cultivation, combination force testing, and trials over several years, leading to the development of this innovative chicken variety [11]. Group 2: Product Features - The "Guanghong No. 3" chicken exhibits high feed conversion efficiency, rapid growth, uniformity in the flock, strong disease resistance, excellent slaughter performance, and superior meat quality, making it suitable for various food processing applications [12][13][14]. - It has been noted for its tender, juicy meat with a flavor profile comparable to fast-growing chicken varieties, enhancing its market appeal [17][18]. Group 3: Economic Impact - The "Guanghong No. 3" chicken is designed to be feed-efficient, with a lower feed-to-meat conversion ratio by 0.13, resulting in a reduction of feed consumption by 254.8 grams per chicken [20]. - If promoted to 200 million chickens annually, it could save 51,000 tons of feed, equivalent to conserving 127,000 acres of arable land, thereby supporting national food security [21]. Group 4: Technological Innovation - The breeding system incorporates advanced breeding technologies, including fast and slow feather gene detection, molecular testing, and cloud computing for intelligent breeding applications [22][23][24]. - The National Seed Industry Revitalization Promotion Association emphasizes the need for rapid selection and promotion of breakthrough varieties to enhance production efficiency [26]. Group 5: Future Plans - The company plans to optimize variety selection, ensure seed supply, and engage in diversified cooperation with farmers, enhancing technical support and services [27]. - There is a focus on building a comprehensive industry layout that includes breeding, propagation, raising, slaughtering, processing, and sales to establish the "Guanghong No. 3" chicken brand [28].

Core Insights - The 2025 Livestock and Poultry Seed Industry Development Forum is a significant event aimed at showcasing the progress and innovations in China's livestock seed industry, which is crucial for ensuring food security and supporting high-quality agricultural development [1][2][3] Group 1: Forum Overview - The forum will take place on September 14 at the Beijing Jinhai Lake International Convention Center, featuring specialized sessions on pigs, cattle, sheep, and poultry [1] - It is organized by the National Animal Husbandry Station in collaboration with the Beijing Municipal Agricultural and Rural Bureau and the Pinggu District People's Government [1] - The theme of the forum is "Empowering New Starting Points, Gathering Wisdom to Create the Future," focusing on showcasing achievements and innovations in livestock breeding [1][2] Group 2: Industry Significance - The livestock seed industry is a vital component of the agricultural sector, ensuring a stable supply of meat, eggs, and dairy products, which are essential for national food security [2] - The forum serves as a national platform for industry stakeholders to exchange ideas and promote collaboration among government, academia, and enterprises [3] - The livestock seed industry is transitioning from quantity assurance to quality assurance, indicating a need for improvement to meet international standards [3]

Core Insights - A high-priced agricultural technology transaction occurred in Shanghai, where a new premium rice variety "Chong Shang 217" was sold for 1.02 million yuan, setting a record for conventional rice seed transfers in Shanghai this year [1] - The transaction reflects a shift in agricultural development philosophy, focusing on the value created per acre rather than just yield [1] - The new rice variety combines traditional breeding techniques with molecular marker-assisted selection, overcoming the historical dilemma of high-yield but poor-tasting rice [1][2] Company Insights - Shanghai Chongming Seed Company acquired exclusive rights to the "Chong Shang 217" variety for 15 years, allowing for focused investment in production, branding, and market expansion [2] - The company aims to enhance the competitiveness of "Chongming Rice," which is recognized as a national geographical indication trademark [2] - The variety has been trialed on over 8,000 acres in Shanghai, yielding approximately 1,200 jin per acre, with a value exceeding 3,200 yuan per acre [3] Industry Insights - Shanghai is actively promoting high-tech, high-quality, and high-value-added agriculture, transforming technological innovations into brand value and market competitiveness [3] - The successful development and commercialization of "Chong Shang 217" signify a potential shift in the agricultural landscape, emphasizing quality and market demand [1][3]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the agricultural sector, but it suggests a cautious outlook with potential for recovery in specific segments [7]. Core Insights - The agricultural sector index underperformed compared to major indices, indicating a challenging environment for the industry [13]. - The report highlights that while short-term pressures exist, there are signs of stabilization in various segments, particularly in pig farming and planting chains [19][38]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The agricultural index closed at 2835.81 points, down 0.14% week-on-week, while major indices like the Shanghai Composite and Shenzhen Composite saw gains of 1.70% and 3.63% respectively [13][14]. 2. Key Data Tracking 2.1 Pig Farming - The average price of commodity pigs was 13.76 yuan/kg, up 0.36% week-on-week, while the average weight of pigs at slaughter was 127.82 kg, a slight increase [19][20]. - The report indicates that the industry is facing pressure with weak demand leading to increased slaughtering activity, and some producers are beginning to cut back on production due to losses [20]. 2.2 Poultry Farming - The average price of white feather chickens was 7.20 yuan/kg, up 0.84% week-on-week, while the price of broiler chickens was 14.10 yuan/kg, up 1.44% [30]. - The report notes that while prices are under pressure, there is potential for recovery if consumer demand improves [30]. 2.3 Livestock - The price of live cattle in Shandong was 26.80 yuan/kg, up 0.37% week-on-week, indicating a gradual recovery in the beef market [35]. - The report anticipates that the dairy sector may stabilize in the second half of 2025 as supply constraints begin to ease [35]. 2.4 Planting Chain - Domestic corn prices were stable at 2,318.57 yuan/ton, while soybean prices increased by 0.67% to 3,952.63 yuan/ton [38]. - The report suggests that if there are significant reductions in grain production, the planting sector could see improved conditions [39]. 2.5 Feed & Aquaculture - Feed prices remained stable, with pig feed at 3.34 yuan/kg and poultry feed at 3.45 yuan/kg, reflecting a stable cost environment [55]. - Aquaculture prices showed stability, with various fish prices remaining unchanged, indicating a steady market [55].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the significance of high-quality barley in the production of premium liquor, particularly for Fenjiu, highlighting the establishment of a dedicated barley cultivation base in Xinjiang to ensure superior raw materials for brewing [3][5][12]. Group 1: Barley Cultivation and Quality - Fenjiu has initiated the production experiment of a specialized barley variety, "Fenjiu Barley No. 1," in Xinjiang, which has shown promising results in terms of quality and yield [3][9]. - The unique climatic conditions of Qitai, Xinjiang, including ample sunlight and fertile soil, make it an ideal location for barley cultivation, contributing to high-quality production [6][9]. - The "Fenjiu Barley No. 1" variety is specifically bred to meet the requirements of high-quality liquor production, ensuring optimal fermentation processes [9][12]. Group 2: Strategic Development and Industry Impact - Fenjiu has integrated grain base construction into its corporate strategy since 2009, establishing over 1.4 million acres of raw material bases across suitable geographical regions [12][14]. - The company has experienced significant revenue growth, with projections indicating an increase from 14 billion yuan in 2020 to 36 billion yuan by 2024, reflecting a growth rate of over 157% [12]. - The establishment of the barley cultivation base is seen as a vital support for the entire barley industry, promoting research and development in barley cultivation and enhancing the overall quality of liquor production [9][14].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the collaboration between Fenjiu and the Xinjiang Qitai County for the cultivation of high-quality barley, specifically the "Fenjiu Barley No. 1," which is essential for producing quality liquor, highlighting the importance of agricultural partnerships in enhancing product quality and supporting local economies [5][12][14]. Summary by Sections Barley Quality and Cultivation - Barley is a key raw material for the production of Qingxiang-style liquor, providing essential flavors and promoting fermentation processes [3][6]. - Qitai County, known for its favorable climate and soil conditions, has a long history of barley cultivation, making it an ideal location for growing barley that meets Fenjiu's brewing standards [6][8]. Agricultural Innovation and Collaboration - The establishment of the Fenjiu Barley breeding base in Qitai is a joint effort between Fenjiu Group and the National Barley and Qinqi Industry Technology System, focusing on breeding new barley varieties and promoting agricultural technology [8][9]. - The "Fenjiu Barley No. 1" variety has shown promising results in trials, demonstrating high yield and quality, which aligns with the requirements for premium liquor production [8][9]. Historical Context and Strategic Goals - Fenjiu has been committed to quality since 2009, establishing over 1.4 million acres of raw material bases across the "golden planting geographical belt" to ensure high-quality grain supply [12]. - The partnership with Qitai is seen as a significant step in enhancing the quality of Fenjiu's products and supporting local agricultural development, reflecting a broader trend of companies engaging in upstream production processes [9][14]. Economic and Social Impact - The collaboration is expected to benefit local farmers and researchers, fostering a sustainable agricultural ecosystem and contributing to rural revitalization efforts [14]. - The initiative aligns with national strategies for agricultural revitalization, showcasing Fenjiu's commitment to quality and its role in the broader liquor industry [14].

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs has announced the 2025 directory of wheat varieties approved by the state, marking a significant achievement for Jining Agricultural Science Institute with the approval of two new wheat varieties, Jiru Wheat 20 and Jiru Wheat 999, which are the first in the city's history to receive national approval [1] Group 1: New Wheat Varieties - Jiru Wheat 20 and Jiru Wheat 999 are both semi-winter varieties with good cold resistance and a growth period of 232.1 days, comparable to the control variety Jimai 22 [1] - Jiru Wheat 20 has good ventilation and light transmission, strong resistance to lodging, excellent maturity, and an average yield of 611.2 kg per mu over two years of regional trials [1] - Jiru Wheat 999 features a looser plant type, good lodging resistance, uniformity, excellent maturity, and an average yield of 623.35 kg per mu over two years of regional trials [1] Group 2: Research and Development Achievements - The approval of these two wheat varieties represents a significant outcome of Jining Agricultural Science Institute's efforts in enhancing research innovation and promoting the revitalization of the seed industry [1] - In recent years, the institute has focused on innovation-driven development, successfully breeding six new wheat varieties that have been approved at the national or provincial level and widely applied in production [1]

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [13] Core Views - The report emphasizes the importance of reducing production in the pig sector, highlighting the expectation gap in the industry [1][2] - The dairy sector is experiencing a bottoming out of raw milk prices, with a potential new cycle for beef cattle starting [3][19] - The pet food sector is witnessing the rise of domestic brands and a positive trend in exports [4][21] - The poultry sector is focusing on the shortage of breeding stock and improving consumer demand for yellow chickens [5][23] - The planting sector is prioritizing food security and the strategic importance of biological breeding [8][29] - The feed sector is recommended for companies with increasing market share and consistent performance, particularly Haida Group [10][31] Summary by Sections Pig Sector - As of July 26, the average price of pigs is 14.81 CNY/kg, stable compared to the previous week, with a notable high average weight of 128.48 kg for market pigs [1][17] - The Ministry of Agriculture emphasizes strict capacity control measures to reduce the number of breeding sows and control the weight of pigs being sold [1][18] - The sector is currently undervalued, with leading companies like Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs showing low average market values [2][18] Cattle Sector - As of the third week of July, live cattle prices are 26.53 CNY/kg, down 0.2% week-on-week, while raw milk prices remain at 3.04 CNY/kg [3][19] - The dairy industry has faced significant losses, with an estimated cumulative income loss of 70 billion CNY from 2023 to 2025 [3][20] - Companies that can withstand the current downturn and have mother cow resources are expected to have strong profit potential [3][20] Pet Sector - Domestic brands in the pet food market are growing rapidly, with significant sales figures reported [4][21] - Pet food exports have increased, with 167,900 tons exported in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.7% [4][21] - Recommended companies include Guibao Pet Food and Zhongchong Co., with a focus on high-growth domestic companies [4][22] Poultry Sector - The report highlights the uncertainty in breeding stock imports due to avian influenza outbreaks, leading to a 33.46% year-on-year decline in breeding stock updates [5][23] - As of July 26, the price of broiler chicks has increased to 2.6 CNY/chick, driven by reduced supply and increased stocking enthusiasm [5][24] - Investment suggestions include focusing on self-breeding opportunities and companies with alternative breeding resources [5][26] Planting Sector - The report stresses the need for a focus on increasing grain production through improved yield and the integration of various agricultural practices [8][29] - The importance of financial support for seed industry revitalization is highlighted, with a push for the commercialization of genetically modified crops [8][29] - Recommended companies include Longping High-Tech and Dabeinong [8][30] Feed Sector - Haida Group is highlighted as a key player in the feed sector, with expectations of market recovery following a prolonged downturn [10][31] - The report notes significant price fluctuations in raw materials, which could benefit companies with strong hedging and feed formulation capabilities [10][31]

Group 1: Agricultural Production and Technology - In 2024, Anhui's total grain output reached 83.69 billion jin, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, with oilseed production at 1.895 million tons, up 0.3%, and vegetable output exceeding 27.174 million tons, growing by 3.3% [1] - The contribution rate of agricultural technology progress in Anhui reached 67% in 2024, indicating a significant transformation in agriculture driven by technology [1] - The total power of agricultural machinery in Anhui is approximately 72.07 million kilowatts, with a comprehensive mechanization rate of 86% for crop farming [4] Group 2: Smart Agriculture Innovations - The Hefei Smart Agriculture Valley has developed a high-throughput soil composition detection robot capable of testing 42 soil nutrients and heavy metals, reducing the testing time from two weeks to three days [2] - The integration of various smart devices, such as pest monitoring lights and soil moisture sensors, allows for real-time data collection and management in smart farms [5][6] - Anhui has established 314 smart agricultural (including livestock and fishery) farms, with applications in 1,490 scenarios, achieving a cost reduction and efficiency increase of 10% to 20% [7] Group 3: Seed Industry Development - The Huanghuaihai (Suzhou) Seed Industry Technology Valley has initiated advanced research in soybean breeding, with 32 new high-yield and high-quality soybean varieties identified, showing over 9% increase in protein content and 10% increase in yield [8][9] - Anhui has built a comprehensive resource preservation and sharing system for seed and genetic resources, with 193 major crop varieties approved at the national level in 2024, ranking second in the country [10] - The province emphasizes the use of gene technology and innovative breeding methods to enhance food security and yield, while also supporting seed industry enterprises through financing and research collaboration [10]