- The report introduces three quantitative models: Commodity Term Structure, Commodity Time-Series Momentum, and Commodity Cross-Sectional Inventory. These models are combined into a Composite Commodity Strategy using equal weighting of the three sub-strategies[25][26][28] - **Commodity Term Structure Model**: This model is constructed based on the roll yield factor to capture the contango and backwardation states of commodities. It dynamically goes long on commodities with high roll yields and short on those with low roll yields[26][30][33] - **Commodity Time-Series Momentum Model**: This model uses multiple technical indicators to capture medium- and long-term trends in domestic commodities. It dynamically goes long on assets with upward trends and short on assets with downward trends[26][35][36] - **Commodity Cross-Sectional Inventory Model**: This model is based on the inventory factor to reflect changes in the domestic commodity fundamentals. It dynamically goes long on assets with declining inventory and short on assets with increasing inventory[26][40][43] - **Evaluation of Models**: The Commodity Term Structure Model is noted for its strong performance, achieving a new high in net value during backtesting. The Time-Series Momentum Model has shown weaker performance recently, while the Cross-Sectional Inventory Model has demonstrated moderate gains[25][35][40] - **Backtesting Results**: - Commodity Term Structure Model: Two-week return of 2.31%, year-to-date return of 7.46%[30][33][34] - Commodity Time-Series Momentum Model: Two-week return of -0.38%, year-to-date return of -3.19%[35][36][39] - Commodity Cross-Sectional Inventory Model: Two-week return of 0.98%, year-to-date return of 5.43%[40][43][44]

Core Points - The Dalian Commodity Exchange announced adjustments to the price limit and margin levels for various futures contracts before and after the 2025 National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays [1][2] Group 1: Adjustments Before the Holidays - From September 29, 2025, the price limit for iron ore futures will be adjusted to 11%, with a margin level of 13% [1] - The price limit for coking coal futures will also be set at 11%, with a margin level adjusted to 15% [1] - For soybean futures (both No. 1 and No. 2), the price limit will be 8%, and the margin level will be 9% [1] - Other commodities such as palm oil, eggs, and ethylene glycol will have a price limit of 9% and a margin level of 10% [1] - The price limit for corn starch and japonica rice will be set at 7%, with a margin level of 8% [1] - The price limit for live pigs will be 9%, with a margin level of 11% [1] - The price limit for pure benzene will be adjusted to 10%, with a margin level of 11% [1] - For fiberboard and plywood, the price limit will be 7%, with the margin level remaining unchanged [1] Group 2: Adjustments After the Holidays - Trading will resume on October 9, 2025, with the price limits and margin levels for various futures contracts returning to pre-holiday standards [2] - This includes iron ore, coking coal, and various agricultural products, which will revert to their previous price limits and margin levels [2] Group 3: Comparison of Risk Control Parameters - A detailed comparison table outlines the changes in price limits and margin levels for each commodity before, during, and after the holiday period [3][4] - The adjustments reflect a strategic response to market conditions and risk management practices as per the Dalian Commodity Exchange's regulations [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Dalian Commodity Exchange announced adjustments to the price limit and margin levels for various futures contracts, effective from April 29, 2025, around Labor Day [1] Group 1: Adjustments to Futures Contracts - Iron ore futures contracts will have a price limit adjusted to 10% and a margin level set at 12% [1] - Coking coal futures contracts will have a price limit of 9% with the margin level unchanged at 13% [1] - Futures contracts for yellow soybeans (1 and 2), soybean meal, soybean oil, linear low-density polyethylene, polypropylene, and polyvinyl chloride will see a price limit of 8% and a margin level of 9% [1] Group 2: Other Commodity Adjustments - Palm oil futures contracts will have a price limit of 9% and a margin level of 10% [1] - Corn and egg futures contracts will have a price limit of 7% and a margin level of 8% [1] - Corn starch futures contracts will have a price limit of 6% and a margin level of 7% [1] Group 3: Additional Futures Contracts - Live pig futures contracts will have a price limit of 7% and a margin level of 9% [1] - Ethylene glycol, styrene, and liquefied petroleum gas futures contracts will have a price limit of 10% and a margin level of 11% [1] - Other futures contracts will maintain their current price limits and margin levels [1]