Group 1: Black Materials Market - The black building materials market is experiencing a high-level retreat, with coking coal and coke prices dropping nearly 2% [1] - Iron ore prices have risen to a four-month high, supported by a decrease in global iron ore shipments and a decline in port inventories [3][5] - The demand for iron ore remains supported despite a decrease in pig iron production and high furnace operating rates, indicating a potential for continued price strength [5] Group 2: Polysilicon Market - Polysilicon prices have shown volatility, with a significant intraday increase of over 2%, currently reported at 43,200 yuan/ton [6] - The market anticipates potential policy changes regarding capacity exit, which could open up price levels to 45,000 yuan/ton if supported by various factors [8] - The industry is closely monitoring downstream demand and pricing dynamics, as well as upcoming policy meetings that may influence market sentiment [8][9] Group 3: Shipping and Logistics - The European shipping index saw an increase of over 8% due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, although it later stabilized to less than 2% [10] - The rise in the shipping index is also attributed to the recovery of the U.S. economy, which has boosted international trade demand [10] - Analysts expect the European shipping index to maintain a fluctuating upward trend, influenced by geopolitical developments and economic recovery [10]

早盘速递 2025/4/25 | | | | 大类资产表现 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 类别 | 名称 | 日涨跌幅% | 月内涨跌幅% | 年内涨跌幅（%） | 近一年走势 | | | 上证指数 上证50 | 0.03 0.25 | -1.15 -0.39 | -1.63 -1.10 | | | | 沪深300 | -0.07 | -2.65 | -3.83 | | | | 中证500 | -0.52 | -4.30 | -2.09 | | | 权益 | 标普500 | 2.03 | -2.26 | -6.75 | | | | 恒生指数 | -0.74 | -5.23 | 9.22 | | | | 德国DAX | 0.47 | -0.45 | 10.83 | | | | 日经225 | 0.49 | -1.62 | -12.17 | | | | 英国富时100 | 0.05 | -2.04 | 2.87 | | | | 10年期国债期货 | -0.09 | 0.75 | -0.22 | | | 固收类 | 5年期国债期货 | -0.11 | 0 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The steel market is currently facing weak terminal demand, with no clear improvement in fundamentals. Although the steel mills' profits have recovered and production has increased, the sustainability of real steel demand needs careful observation. The market is expected to be weak after a short - term shock - driven upward movement. The iron ore market has support from iron ore demand due to the potential for further increase in molten iron production and good steel mill profits. However, there is a large medium - term supply - demand imbalance pressure, and it is expected to be weak after a short - term rebound. The coking coal and coke market has the potential for upward valuation repair supported by the recovery of downstream demand, and attention should be paid to the digestion of upstream inventory. The ferroalloy market may have stronger support at the bottom driven by the recovery of demand, and attention should be paid to the digestion of market inventory [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract Prices and Changes**: For example, the previous day's closing price of coke 01 contract was 1622, down 7 from the day before, with a decline of 0.4%; the previous day's closing price of iron ore 05 contract was 766, up 7 from the day before, with an increase of 0.9%. There were also changes in price ratios and spreads of different contracts, such as the coke 1 - 5 spread changing from 80 to 55 [2]. - **Spot Market and Basis**: In the coke spot market, the spot price at Rizhao Port and Qingdao Port remained at 1340; in the iron ore spot market, the price of PBF (Fe61.5%) increased from 842 to 849. The basis of different varieties also changed to varying degrees [2]. 3.2 Profit - **Profit Changes**: Coke simulation profit decreased from 63 to - 385; steel simulation profit increased from - 53 to - 49; the profit of steel mills on the futures market decreased from - 48 to - 71; the profit of coking plants on the futures market increased from 312 to 327 [3]. 3.3 Macro News - On April 15, Premier Li Qiang emphasized during a research trip in Beijing to calmly respond to difficulties and challenges brought by external shocks, promote consumption and expand domestic demand with greater efforts, and further release the vitality and potential of China's super - large - scale market [3]. 3.4 Industry Information - From April 7 - 13, the total transaction area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 131.99 million square meters, a month - on - month decrease of 18.4% and a year - on - year decrease of 18.6%; the total transaction area of second - hand housing was 265.87 million square meters, a month - on - month increase of 39.5% and a year - on - year increase of 24.5% [3]. - For steel, the tariff exemption has no direct impact, and the indirect export impact has not been realized. Terminal demand is weak, and the real steel demand needs careful observation. For iron ore, although the supply is expected to change, the demand is supported by the increase in molten iron production. For coking coal and coke, there is potential for upward valuation repair. For ferroalloys, the cost support has weakened, and attention should be paid to the guidance of steel procurement and the digestion of inventory [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Steel products: Terminal demand shows signs of stabilization, with no further deterioration in fundamentals, but the sustainability of real steel - using demand needs careful observation. Steel mills' profits are recovering, and total production is on the rise. The sustainability of rebar's apparent consumption remains to be seen. Key points to watch are steel mills' resumption speed and demand recovery, and whether demand can absorb increased production to avoid negative feedback. With domestic macro - policies in place and fundamental transactions providing support, be vigilant about overseas tariff disturbances. The export end has new variables, and the short - term outlook is weak with fluctuations [2]. - Iron ore: The raw material end is weak due to expected supply policy changes, but hot metal production has room to increase. Steel mills' profits are decent, and the impetus for resumption is strong, with potential acceleration of blast furnace resumption. Global iron ore shipments have recently decreased, mainly due to disruptions in Australian shipments, and port inventories are being depleted rapidly. There is significant medium - term supply - demand imbalance pressure, with expected rapid growth in iron ore shipments in the second half of the year. The short - term lacks a driving force and follows the performance of finished products, with a short - term outlook of weak fluctuations [2]. - Coking coal and coke: Overnight, the prices of coking coal and coke futures rose and then fell. Coking coal spot prices remain weak, and the eleventh round of coke price cuts has been implemented. After the Spring Festival, coking coal production has rebounded from the bottom, with potential for further increase. Downstream coking enterprises' profits are shrinking, and production is declining. Steel and coking plants have low restocking enthusiasm, and coking coal upstream inventories are at a high level in recent years. Coking enterprises' coke inventories need to be digested. Terminal steel demand is mediocre, and the post - festival growth rate of hot metal production is slow. Steel mills' profit levels are not high, and the growth rate of hot metal production is not optimistic. The key is to watch the performance of terminal demand during the peak season. In the high - inventory environment, there are still obstacles to the short - term upward price adjustment of coking coal and coke [2]. - Ferroalloys: Yesterday, the price of ferromanganese silicon futures declined weakly, while the price of ferrosilicon futures bottomed out and rebounded. Manganese ore prices are falling, and the cost support for ferromanganese silicon has weakened due to the reduction in chemical coke prices. The price of semi - coke has increased significantly, raising the cost floor of ferrosilicon. In terms of demand, terminal steel demand is mediocre, and the post - festival growth rate of finished product production is slow. Steel mills have sufficient raw material inventories and limited restocking enthusiasm. In terms of supply, the recent production of the two types of silicon alloys has been stable at a relatively high level. Ferromanganese silicon delivery warehouse inventories are high, and ferrosilicon manufacturers face inventory reduction pressure. The ferromanganese silicon market has strong supply and weak demand, and prices currently lack an upward driving force. The supply - demand of ferrosilicon remains loose, and prices may follow the sector's performance and be weak. Key factors are whether terminal steel demand during the traditional peak season exceeds expectations [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Price Changes**: The prices of most futures contracts showed a downward trend. For example, the coke 01 contract decreased by 13 points (- 0.7%), the coke 05 contract decreased by 20 points (- 1.2%), the rebar 01 contract decreased by 24 points (- 0.7%), and the rebar 05 contract decreased by 11 points (- 0.3%). The prices of some contracts remained unchanged, such as the iron ore 01 contract and the power coal 01 and 05 contracts [1]. - **Ratio and Spread Changes**: Some ratios and spreads have changed. For example, the coke inter - period (1 - 5 spread) increased from 80 to 87, the coal - coke ratio (01 contract) increased from 1.49 to 1.50, and the coil - rebar spread (01 contract) increased from 124 to 141 [1]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Coke**: The spot prices of Rizhao Port and Qingdao Port's quasi - first - grade coke remained unchanged at 1360. The ex - factory price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke from Lu'an Coking was 2800. The Rizhao Port's quasi - first - grade coke converted to the futures price was 1462, and the basis for the j2401 contract improved from - 255 to - 242 [1]. - **Coking coal**: The spot price of main coking coal (A10.5, S1.3, G80) in Jiexiu remained at 1080, the summary price of fat coal in Jinzhong was 1190, and the price of imported Mongolian No. 3 coking coal at Shaheyi increased from 1143 to 1148. The basis for the jm2401 contract improved from 45 to 56 [1]. - **Power coal**: The Qinhuangdao Port's power coal (Q5500) closing price remained at 675, while the Q5000 price increased from 590 to 595. The Australian FOB price (Q6000) was 92, the South African FOB price (Q6000) was 86, and the Indonesian FOB price (Q3800) decreased from 51 to 50. The CBCFI coal freight composite index decreased from 783 to 752 [1]. - **Rebar**: The national average price of HRB400 20mm rebar decreased from 3371 to 3366. The basis for the rebar futures contract worsened from - 55 to - 61 [1]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: The prices of hot - rolled coils in various regions remained mostly stable, and the basis for the hot - rolled coil futures contract improved from - 69 to - 62 [1]. - **Iron ore**: The prices of various iron ore varieties decreased slightly, and the basis for the iron ore futures contract decreased from 145 to 137 [1]. - **Ferroalloys**: The absolute price index of ferromanganese silicon remained at 5938, and the absolute price index of ferrosilicon remained at 5750. The basis for ferromanganese silicon improved from - 192 to - 138, and the basis for ferrosilicon worsened from - 252 to - 266 [1]. 3.3 Profit - Coke simulated profit decreased from 97 to - 393, the steel mill's futures profit increased from - 52 to - 50, the coking plant's futures profit increased from - 152 to - 147, and the steel product simulated profit decreased from 222 to 217 [2]. 3.4 Macro and Industry Information - Macro: On the morning of March 28, President Xi Jinping stated that China is, and will always be, an ideal, safe, and promising investment destination for foreign businesses [2]. - Industry: On March 30, Bank of China, China Construction Bank, Bank of Communications, and Postal Savings Bank of China announced plans to issue A - shares to specific investors, with a total planned fundraising of 520 billion yuan [2].