基本面看暂无大矛盾，生猪合约震荡调整。 生猪主力合约基差(元/吨) -5,000 -4,000 -3,000 -2,000 -1,000 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 01-02 01-29 02-25 03-22 04-18 05-17 06-12 07-08 08-03 08-29 09-25 10-28 11-23 12-19 2022 2023 2024 2025 --7070 类别 指标名称 2025-08-22 2025-08-15 基准地出栏价(元/公斤) 河南 13.77 13.81 期货合约收盘价(元/吨) 01合约 14145 14225 03合约 13300 13320 05合约 13740 13890 07合约 14175 14290 09合约 13760 13825 11合约 13840 13945 主力合约基差(元/吨) 基准地基差 -70 -135 数据来源：Wind、涌益咨询、融达期货 | | | 下载图片 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 另存为PDF | | 生猪周报 | 2025-08-25 | | | ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The view is that the market will experience a shock adjustment. The core logic is that from sow and piglet data, pig slaughter volume may increase monthly until December, making it difficult for pig prices to rise significantly under sufficient supply. The price difference between 150Kg and standard pigs has stabilized and rebounded, and seasonally, this difference is expected to continue to strengthen, which will also weaken the weight - reduction willingness of the retail group and support pig prices to some extent. If the farming sector continues to reduce weight or keep the weight stable, pig prices may adjust weakly in a shock, and the 11 - contract is almost at par with the spot price, so it is recommended to wait and see [4]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Dynamics - On August 7, the registered warehouse receipts of live pigs were 380 lots. The short - term spot price has limited room for further decline, and attention should be paid to the extent of further weight reduction of live pigs. The live pig contract (LH2511) increased its positions by 626 lots today, with a position of about 59,600 lots. The highest price today was 14,170 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 13,920 yuan/ton, and it closed at 14,100 yuan/ton [2]. Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the inventory of breeding sows, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase monthly from March to December, but the increase is limited. From the piglet data, the slaughter volume of live pigs in the third and fourth quarters of 2025 will generally increase in a shock. In terms of the demand side, consumption in the second half of the year is better than that in the first half. Historically, the fat - to - standard price difference may strengthen in a shock. The short - side logic includes slow and difficult weight reduction in the farming sector, incomplete release of supply pressure, continuous increase in subsequent slaughter volume, and limited support from demand for pig prices as the third quarter is not the peak consumption season. The long - side logic includes the room for increasing frozen product inventory to support pig prices, strong resilience of spot prices indicating that supply and demand are not as loose as the short - side thinks, and the subsequent increase in slaughter volume is limited while the third and fourth quarters gradually enter the peak consumption season of live pigs [3]. Strategy Suggestion - The view is shock adjustment. The core logic is that based on sow and piglet data, pig slaughter volume may increase monthly until December (without considering early or delayed slaughter by the farming sector), so pig prices are difficult to rise significantly under sufficient supply. The price difference between 150Kg and standard pigs has stabilized and rebounded, and seasonally, this difference is expected to continue to strengthen, which will also weaken the weight - reduction willingness of the retail group and support pig prices to some extent. If the farming sector continues to reduce weight or keep the weight stable, pig prices may adjust weakly in a shock, and the 11 - contract is almost at par with the spot price, so it is recommended to wait and see (for reference only, not constituting investment advice) [4]. Market Overview - On August 7, 2025, compared with August 6, 2025, the 01 - contract price of live pigs increased by 85 yuan to 14,395 yuan/ton, with a increase rate of 0.59%; the 03 - contract price increased by 40 yuan to 13,375 yuan/ton, with a increase rate of 0.3%; the 05 - contract price remained unchanged at 13,895 yuan/ton; the 07 - contract price decreased by 10 yuan to 14,405 yuan/ton, with a decrease rate of 0.07%; the 09 - contract price increased by 60 yuan to 13,870 yuan/ton, with a increase rate of 0.43%; the 11 - contract price increased by 90 yuan to 14,100 yuan/ton, with a increase rate of 0.64% [6]. Key Data Tracking - The report presents data on the closing prices of futures contracts in the past 180 days, the basis of the main live - pig contract in the Henan region, the price differences between the 09 - 11 contracts, and the price differences between the 11 - 01 contracts over different time periods [14].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The report suggests that the pig price will experience a period of oscillatory adjustment. The supply of pigs is expected to be abundant until December, which will limit significant price increases. However, the demand side also provides some support, preventing a significant price drop. Therefore, it is recommended to wait and see for now [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Dynamics - On July 9, the registered warehouse receipts for live pigs were 447 lots [2]. - In the short term, there is limited room for further decline in the spot price. The LH2509 contract is undergoing oscillatory adjustment [2]. - The main contract (LH2509) reduced its positions by 1,328 lots today, with a holding of approximately 70,000 lots. The highest price was 14,270 yuan/ton, the lowest was 14,175 yuan/ton, and it closed at 14,265 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - Based on the data of sows and piglets, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase monthly from March to December, but the increase will be limited. The overall slaughter volume of live pigs will increase oscillatingly in the second and third quarters of 2025. The first half of the year is the off - season for demand, while the second half is the peak season [3]. - From a historical perspective and the current fundamentals, the spread between fat and standard pigs may undergo oscillatory adjustment [3]. - Market bearish and bullish logics: - Bearish: Slow weight reduction in the breeding sector, continuous increase in subsequent slaughter volume, and limited demand support for pig prices in the second and third quarters [3]. - Bullish: There is still room for an increase in frozen product inventory, strong resilience of spot prices, limited increase in subsequent slaughter volume, and the gradual approach of the peak consumption season in the third and fourth quarters [3]. 3.3 Strategy Suggestion - Viewpoint: Oscillatory adjustment [4]. - Core logic: - Based on sow and piglet data, the slaughter volume of live pigs may increase monthly until December, making it difficult for pig prices to rise significantly under abundant supply [4]. - The recent performance of the live pig spot market shows a positive relationship between "weight reduction - stable pig prices", indicating that the demand side also provides some support for pig prices. The spread between 150 - kg pigs and standard pigs has stabilized and rebounded, weakening the willingness of retail farmers to reduce weight and providing some support for pig prices [4]. - The 2509 contract is almost at par with the price trough, and the short - term fluctuations in pig prices are limited. It is recommended to wait and see for now [4]. 3.4 Market Quotes Overview - National average live pig slaughter price on July 9 was 14.89 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day. The slaughter price in Henan was 15.07 yuan/kg, down 0.08 yuan/kg (-0.53%) from the previous day; in Sichuan, it was 14.44 yuan/kg, up 0.03 yuan/kg (0.21%) from the previous day [6]. - Futures prices of various contracts generally declined on July 9 compared to the previous day, with the decline ranging from -0.07% to -0.62% [6]. - The main contract basis in Henan was 805 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton (-8%) from the previous day [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The spot price is expected to fluctuate weakly. The main reasons are that the piglet data indicates an increasing trend in pig slaughter volume by September, leading to abundant supply and downward pressure on prices. Also, as pig prices fall, the optimal slaughter weight decreases, forcing farmers to reduce pig weights, which further weighs on prices. Meanwhile, the LH2509 contract is currently at a relatively reasonable price level and is recommended to be observed for now [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures End - **Main Contract Basis Situation**: The market believes that farmers are likely to reduce pig weights in June and July, which is negative for the current situation but positive for the future. Therefore, the main contract (LH2509) has been adjusted with a slight upward trend. As of May 30, 2025, the benchmark basis of the main contract was 945 yuan/ton [2][3]. - **Price Changes of Each Contract**: Driven by the expectation of pig weight reduction, the prices of far - month contracts are fluctuating with a slight upward trend [7]. - **Inter - monthly Spread Changes**: Under the drive of the expectation of pig weight reduction, there is a reverse spread trend for the 7 - 9 and 7 - 11 contracts [8][11]. 2. Spot End - **Pig Price and Slaughter Volume**: This week, affected by the adjustment of the slaughter rhythm and the Dragon Boat Festival stocking, the slaughter volume first decreased and then increased, and the pig price mainly fluctuated and adjusted [14]. - **Regional Spread**: Henan remains a high - price area [16]. - **Fat - Standard Spread**: The fat - standard spread is oscillating and adjusting [18]. - **Fresh Sales and Hair - White Spread**: Terminal consumption is relatively stable year - on - year [20]. - **Related Product Price Ratios and Fresh - Frozen Spread**: The cost - effectiveness of pork is average. There is almost no fresh - frozen spread for No. 2 meat, and fresh products will replace frozen products, increasing the demand for live pigs [22]. - **Breeding Profit**: The profit of self - breeding and self - raising is still considerable, while the profit of purchasing piglets for fattening is in a marginal profit state [24]. - **Slaughter Weight**: The slaughter weight continues to decline, and the pressure of previous inventory accumulation is gradually released [26]. 3. Production Capacity End - **Inventory of Reproductive Sows**: According to the Ministry of Agriculture, the national inventory of reproductive sows at the end of April was 40.38 million, unchanged from the previous month and up 1.3% year - on - year. Data from Yongyi Consulting and My steel also show an increase in the inventory of reproductive sows in their sample areas [28]. - **Sow Culling Situation**: The price of culled sows has been running weakly this week, and the slaughter volume of culled sows decreased month - on - month in April [30]. - **Sow Production Efficiency and Number of Newborn Healthy Piglets**: In April, the number of newborn healthy piglets increased by 2.91% month - on - month (previous value +0.94%), indicating a continuous increase in the number of pigs to be slaughtered in October this year [32]. - **Sow and Piglet Replenishment Enthusiasm**: This week, the price of 15 - kg piglets continued to fall, and the price of 50 - kg binary sows was running weakly and steadily [34]. 4. Slaughter End - **Slaughter Volume and Slaughter Profit**: The slaughter volume continued to increase month - on - month. In April, the slaughter volume of designated enterprises was 30.77 million, up 0.5% month - on - month and 20% year - on - year. The market for frozen products has gradually changed from inventory accumulation to inventory reduction, and its impact on pig prices has changed from positive to neutral and negative [36]. 5. Import End - In April 2025, the pork import volume was about 79,000 tons, a decrease of 11,000 tons from the previous month. Currently, the scale of pork imports is limited, and its impact on domestic pig prices is relatively limited [39].