Summary of the Conference Call on the Sanitation Industry Industry Overview - The sanitation industry is facing challenges such as aging workforce and rising labor costs, making automation technology a pressing need for long-term development. The market size for sanitation equipment is expected to reach 200 billion yuan [1][5][15]. Key Insights and Arguments - In the first half of 2025, the number of projects applying for unmanned sanitation equipment exceeded 90, doubling from 2024, with an expected industry growth rate of 130% for the year, primarily driven by policy support [1][6]. - Unmanned technology significantly enhances corporate performance, with some companies experiencing performance elasticity exceeding 70%. Beneficiaries include companies like Fulongma, Jinjing Environment, Qiaoyin Co., and Yuhua Tian [1][7]. - Small-tonnage intelligent sanitation equipment (under 3 tons) is suitable for closed or semi-closed environments, capable of replacing 2-3 workers. Initial pricing at 300,000 yuan can achieve economic parity in 3-4 years, while a reduction to 200,000 yuan accelerates this to 2-3 years [1][13]. - Large-tonnage L4 unmanned sanitation vehicles (over 6 tons) are designed for open municipal roads, with initial costs around 1 million yuan. Economic viability is not apparent in the short term and requires a price drop to around 600,000 yuan to achieve economic parity in 2-3 years [1][13]. Market Potential - The current operational ratio of unmanned equipment is estimated at 20%, with the small equipment market space around 57.5 billion yuan and large equipment around 76.1 billion yuan, totaling over 100 billion yuan. In a neutral optimistic scenario, the market could reach 200-250 billion yuan [1][15]. - The sanitation unmanned equipment market is expected to approach 10 billion yuan by 2025, with major players including Fulongma, Jingyu, Qiaoyin, Yuhua Tian, Yufeng, and Yutong [2][15]. Current Application Status - By 2024, 82 projects were mandated to apply unmanned sanitation equipment, with over 90 projects in the first half of 2025, indicating a doubling growth rate. Key cities like Guangzhou and Shenzhen have policies requiring smart equipment in environmental service contracts [6][9]. Economic Impact on Companies - The introduction of small-tonnage unmanned equipment significantly impacts operational profitability. For instance, Fulongma shows a 177% elasticity in operational profit contribution, followed by Yuhua Tian at 85% and Qiaoyin at 72% [19]. Development Trends - The sanitation industry is undergoing a necessary upgrade from electrification to automation and unmanned technology. The aging workforce and rising labor costs necessitate this shift, with policies driving the adoption of unmanned orders [8][25]. - The market space is substantial, and the industry is at a critical juncture for adopting unmanned technology, with significant policy support from major cities [15][25]. Company Progress - Companies like Yinfeng Environment and Yutong Heavy Industry have made significant advancements in unmanned sanitation technology, with product launches and pilot applications in major cities [17][18]. Conclusion - The sanitation unmanned equipment market is poised for significant growth, driven by policy support and technological advancements. Companies that adapt to this trend are likely to benefit from enhanced operational efficiency and reduced costs, making it a crucial area for investment and development in the coming years [27].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the environmental protection industry [1] Core Views - The report highlights the accelerating growth of orders for unmanned sanitation equipment and the approaching economic viability of small-tonnage equipment, alongside the marketization of water prices and a cash flow turning point, indicating a potential next phase for waste incineration [1][5] Summary by Sections Unmanned Sanitation Equipment - The economic viability of small-tonnage unmanned sanitation equipment is improving, with orders showing a scattered growth trend. One unit plus one operator can replace 3-4 workers, achieving economic feasibility as prices drop to 200,000 yuan [9][10] - The market potential for unmanned sanitation equipment is estimated to reach hundreds of billions, with a conservative assumption of a 20% replacement rate leading to a market space of 575 billion yuan for small-tonnage and 761 billion yuan for large-tonnage equipment [10][11] - Orders for unmanned sanitation equipment are projected to grow by 129% year-on-year in 2025, with over 180 projects expected [12] Waste Incineration - The report emphasizes that declining capital expenditures will enhance free cash flow and dividends in the waste incineration sector. The sector's free cash flow turned positive in 2023 and is expected to continue improving [14][16] - Companies like Junxin and Green Power are projected to have significant dividend payouts, with Junxin's dividend ratio reaching 94.59% in 2024 [14][16] Water Operations - The water operations sector is poised for growth due to marketization and improved cash flow, with companies like Xingrong and Hongcheng Environment expected to maintain high dividend ratios [18][21] - The report suggests that water price reforms will lead to sustainable growth, with potential for significant valuation increases similar to trends seen in the U.S. water industry [18][20] Industry Trends - The report notes a 90.56% year-on-year increase in sales of new energy sanitation vehicles, with a penetration rate of 15.86% [28] - The average price of biodiesel remains stable, with a slight increase in profitability per ton [37] - The lithium battery recycling sector is experiencing a decline in profitability, with fluctuating metal prices impacting margins [40]

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the accelerating growth of orders for automated sanitation equipment, indicating a trend of scattered volume increase in the market for unmanned sanitation solutions [1][4]. Investment Highlights - The automation and intelligence of urban sanitation operations are achieved through unmanned equipment, categorized into small-tonnage and large-tonnage devices, as well as humanoid robots for closed-loop scenarios [2]. - Small-tonnage unmanned devices are expected to be more economical, with one unit plus one operator potentially replacing 3-4 workers, leading to significant cost savings [2]. - The market for unmanned sanitation equipment is projected to reach a scale of hundreds of billions, with varying estimates based on the adoption rate of unmanned operations [3]. Market Space Estimation - The market space for small and large-tonnage unmanned devices is estimated at 575 billion to 1,522 billion yuan, depending on the adoption rate of 20%, 30%, or 40% [3]. - The report emphasizes the need for active participation and strategic positioning by various stakeholders in the unmanned sanitation sector to address labor shortages and enhance mechanization rates [4]. Order Growth and Trends - The number of awarded projects for automated sanitation is expected to increase significantly, with 82 projects worth 4.87 billion yuan in 2024 and over 90 projects worth 5.58 billion yuan in the first half of 2025 [1][4]. - The estimated total for awarded projects in 2025 is projected to exceed 180, with a total value of approximately 11.16 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of about 129% [1][4]. Economic Analysis - The economic viability of small-tonnage unmanned devices is highlighted, with a price point of 300,000 yuan per unit, which could become economically advantageous as prices decrease to 200,000 yuan [2]. - Large-tonnage unmanned vehicles currently lack economic feasibility but could become viable if prices drop to 600,000 yuan [2]. Company Participation - Various companies are actively developing and deploying unmanned sanitation solutions, including 盈峰环境, 宇通重工, 福龙马, and others, indicating a robust competitive landscape [4]. - The report suggests that the transition to unmanned sanitation will help companies reduce costs and increase profitability, with projected performance elasticity for several companies ranging from 76% to 296% [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the environmental protection industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The automation and intelligence of urban sanitation operations are being achieved through unmanned sanitation equipment, which can be categorized into small-tonnage, large-tonnage, and humanoid robots [4][10] - Small-tonnage unmanned equipment is expected to be more economical and will likely see earlier market adoption [4][13] - The market potential for unmanned sanitation and driving equipment is estimated to reach a trillion yuan level, with various scenarios predicting market sizes ranging from 575 billion to 1,522 billion yuan depending on the adoption rates [4][15] - The industry is actively engaging in the layout of intelligent and unmanned solutions, addressing labor shortages and aging workforce issues in the sanitation sector [4][18] - Orders for unmanned sanitation equipment are accelerating, showing a trend of scattered volume growth, with significant government contracts [4][40] Summary by Sections 1. Automation and Intelligence in Sanitation - Unmanned sanitation equipment utilizes advanced technologies for automation and intelligence, categorized into small-tonnage, large-tonnage, and humanoid robots [10] - Small-tonnage equipment serves semi-enclosed areas, while large-tonnage equipment is designed for open environments [12] 1.2 Economic Analysis - Small-tonnage unmanned equipment can replace 3-4 workers, with a current price of around 300,000 yuan, becoming economically viable as prices drop to 200,000 yuan [13] - Large-tonnage unmanned vehicles currently lack economic viability but could become competitive if prices decrease to 600,000 yuan [13] 1.3 Market Potential - The market for unmanned sanitation equipment is projected to be substantial, with estimates of 575 billion yuan under conservative assumptions and up to 1,522 billion yuan under optimistic scenarios [15] 2. Active Participation in Unmanned Solutions - Various companies are actively developing and deploying unmanned sanitation solutions, addressing labor challenges and enhancing mechanization rates [18][19] 3. Order Growth Trends - The number of contracts for unmanned sanitation projects is increasing, with projections indicating a 129% year-on-year growth in total contract value for 2025 [40][41]