1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Bottle Chip (PR)**: The market is expected to be in a weak oscillation state. With the implementation of production cuts and potential inventory reduction, there is room for the processing fee to expand. It is recommended to go long on PR and short on PF [8]. - **Staple Fiber (PF)**: The market will experience short - term oscillation and face medium - term pressure. It is also advisable to go long on PR and short on PF [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Bottle Chip (PR) 3.1.1 Valuation and Profit - The cost of polymerization has decreased, and the spot processing fee of bottle chips has recovered to around 350 yuan/ton. The export profit has also improved, and the internal - external price difference has narrowed [50]. - The bottle chip - slice spread has been at a historical low since 2024, and some producers may switch production. The short - fiber - bottle chip spread is currently at a high valuation, and it is recommended to go long on PR and short on PF [27]. - The bottle chip - PVC spread is at a high level, with limited further substitution drive. The bottle chip has high cost - effectiveness compared to PP, and the substitution in the packaging field continues [28][29]. 3.1.2 Fundamental Operation - **Production and Operation**: The effective production capacity has reached 2.168 billion tons. This week, the operating rate dropped to 86.5%, but the weekly output remained at a high level [33]. - **Raw Material End**: The absolute inventory of PTA is still at a low level, and the MEG port inventory in East China is also at a certain level [40][46]. - **Inventory**: The overall PTA inventory of polyester factories has decreased. The inventory of domestic polyester bottle chip factories is about 18 days, and the social inventory is expected to be 3.02 million tons in July [55]. - **Device Changes**: Production cuts are being implemented as expected. For example, Yisheng Hainan has shut down 1.25 million tons of production capacity, and Chongqing Wankai has postponed its shutdown [60]. - **Demand**: The downstream operating rate has remained stable. In 2025, from January to May, the consumption of soft drinks and edible oils was relatively weak, but there are still new production lines being put into operation in the beverage industry. The demand for sheet materials is average, and the supermarket consumption has improved month - on - month [64][70]. - **Export**: From January to May, the export increased rapidly year - on - year, but in June, it was affected by freight rates. The traditional important export destinations have maintained good growth, and the re - export trade to North America through South Korea and Mexico is also showing positive trends [83][88]. 3.1.3 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - In July - August, the market is expected to be in a tight balance. Assuming that the production cuts of large manufacturers are implemented on schedule and the downstream demand increases by 5% compared to the same period last year, the market may experience a slight inventory reduction in July [95][96]. 3.2 Staple Fiber (PF) 3.2.1 Valuation - The PF basis has remained stable in oscillation, and the futures - spot structure has maintained a back structure. The processing fee on the futures market has recovered [101][110]. 3.2.2 Fundamental Operation - **Production**: The operating rate of staple fiber factories is at a high level, with sporadic production cuts. The average operating rate of direct - spinning staple fiber is 93%, and the operating rate of spinning - used direct - spinning staple fiber is 96% (down 1%) [112][115]. - **Inventory**: Downstream customers are on the sidelines, and the inventory of polyester filament has rapidly increased again [118]. - **Export**: The export data in May was good [124]. - **Profit**: With the decrease in cost, most profits have recovered, but polyester chips are still in a loss state [125]. - **Downstream**: The operating rate of polyester yarn has slightly decreased. Yarn replenishment is average, mainly consuming raw material inventory, and the finished product inventory has increased. The profit of polyester yarn is generally better than last year, and the reverse substitution between virgin and recycled materials continues [135][140][141]. - **Weaving**: Some weaving machines have reduced their operating rates seasonally [150][153].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Bottle Chip (PR)**: The market is expected to be in a weak oscillation pattern. With the approaching implementation of production cuts by leading factories, and considering factors such as high downstream domestic demand, reduced impact of freight on exports, and potential inventory reduction in July - August, it is recommended to go long on PR and short on PF [8][9][10]. - **Staple Fiber (PF)**: The market will be in a short - term oscillation and face medium - term pressure. Although there are plans for production cuts and contract reductions in July, the implementation may be relatively weak due to less prominent profit and inventory pressure. It is also recommended to go long on PR and short on PF [8][9]. 3. Summary by Directory Bottle Chip (PR) - **Valuation and Profit** - Aggregate cost has significantly increased, reaching around 6050 yuan/ton this week. Spot processing fees have recovered from 200 yuan/ton to the 270 - 300 yuan/ton range, and export profits have also improved, reaching about 700 - 720 yuan/ton [48]. - The bottle chip - slice spread has been at a historical low since 2024, and the short - fiber - bottle chip spread has compressed to a level similar to last year. The bottle chip - PVC spread is at a high level, and the substitution drive is low, while the bottle chip has a high cost - performance ratio compared to PP, and the substitution in the packaging field continues [27][28][29]. - **Fundamental Operation** - **Supply**: The total production capacity involved in production cuts by leading factories is about 2.4 million tons. This week, Huarun's three factories started production cuts, with an operating rate of 88%. Yisheng and Wankai will conduct maintenance in early July. The current effective production capacity has reached 21.68 million tons (CCF caliber), and this week's bottle chip load dropped to 88.7% [9][33]. - **Demand**: This week, the downstream operation remained stable. Beverage companies' device loads ranged from 80% - 95%, edible oil factories' average operation was around 60% - 80%, and the operation rate of sheet materials in East China was around 60% - 80% and in South China was around 40% - 60%. From January to May 2025, soft drink production increased by 3.0% year - on - year, and beverage product retail sales increased by 0.2% year - on - year. There are still many new beverage factory production lines to be put into operation this year [62][68][69]. - **Inventory**: The overall PTA inventory of polyester factories remained stable. The inventory of domestic polyester bottle chip factories was about 17.6 days (CCF caliber). According to CCF data, the estimated social inventory in May was 2.93 million tons, 3.1 million tons in June, and 3.02 million tons in July. After the implementation of production cuts, it is expected to reduce inventory [53]. - **Device Changes**: Sanfangxiang has a total of 1.8 million tons of production capacity shut down. Huarun's polyester bottle chip devices in Changzhou, Jiangyin, and Zhuhai started to cut production by 20% on June 22, with a total reduction of 660,000 tons. Yisheng Hainan plans to shut down and overhaul 750,000 tons of production capacity on July 1, Yisheng Dahua plans to shut down and overhaul 350,000 tons of production capacity on July 1, and Chongqing Wankai plans to shut down and overhaul 600,000 tons of production capacity on July 1 [57]. - **Export**: From January to May, exports increased rapidly year - on - year. In May, the total export volume of polyester bottle chips and slices was 742,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 30.6%. However, there was a situation of over - exporting in May, which may affect the actual export volume from June to July. Overseas bottle chip production capacity has increased little in recent years, and overseas downstream demand will increasingly rely on imports [81][82][78]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet** - In July - August, it is expected to be in a tight - balance state. Assuming that the large - scale production cut plan is implemented on schedule and lasts until August, and the downstream demand increases by 5% year - on - year compared to the peak season of last year, and the export demand is affected by freight in June - July but recovers in August, there may be a slight inventory reduction in July [93][94]. Staple Fiber (PF) - **Valuation and Profit** - The PF basis has maintained a stable oscillation, and the futures - spot structure remains in a backwardation structure. The disk processing fee has recovered [99][108]. - **Fundamental Operation** - **Supply**: The average load of direct - spinning staple fiber is 93.8%, and the operation rate of direct - spinning staple fiber for spinning is 97.1% (- 1%). Ningbo Zhuocheng has reduced the production of hollow staple fiber by 100 tons per day, and Sichuan Jixing's 200,000 - ton direct - spinning staple fiber device has been shut down for maintenance and is expected to restart in early July [113]. - **Demand**: The downstream polyester yarn operation rate has remained stable, but yarn replenishment is average, mainly consuming raw material inventory, and the finished product inventory has increased [133][135]. - **Inventory**: The downstream is in a wait - and - see state, and the inventory accumulation continues [118]. - **Profit**: With the decline in cost, most profits have recovered, but polyester chips are still in a loss state [125].

Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report Core Views - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various financial and commodity markets, offering specific comments and operation suggestions for different varieties based on their current market conditions, supply - demand relationships, and macro - economic factors [2]. Summary by Categories Financial - **Stock Index Futures**: For IF2506, the lower support of the index is stable, one can sell out - of - the - money put options to earn premiums; for IH2506, the index opens high and closes low with sectoral rotation. One can also buy September IM contracts on dips and sell September out - of - the - money call options with a strike price of 6400 for a covered strategy [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: T2506 may fluctuate in the short term, with a wait - and - see approach. Focus on the capital market and economic data. Curve strategy suggests a steepening trade. The 10 - year and 30 - year treasury bond rates are around 1.66% and 1.92%, respectively, and are expected to fluctuate in the short term waiting for a driving force [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold is under short - term pressure with support around $3200 (¥745), and the sold out - of - the - money call options with a strike price above 800 can be held. Silver prices range between $32 - 33.5 (¥8000 - 8350), and an option straddle strategy can be tried [2]. Commodities - **Shipping**: With the easing of the Sino - US trade war, the spot price of the container shipping index (EC2506 for the European line) may rise. One can consider going long on the August contract or 8 - 10, 6 - 10 calendar spreads [2]. - **Steel**: The steel spot market is stabilizing with macro - level benefits. For RB2510, unilateral operations are on hold, and focus on the long - hot - rolled - coil short - raw - material arbitrage [2]. - **Iron Ore**: The increase in blast furnace maintenance may lead to a peak and decline in hot metal production. It is expected to trade in a range of 700 - 745 [2]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Coke prices are in a new round of price cuts, and coking coal is weak. One can go long on hot - rolled coil and short on coke or coking coal. The coal mine inventory is high, and there is still a possibility of price decline, with high hedging pressure in the futures market [2]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: - **Crude Oil**: The short - term oil price is likely to oscillate at a high level. The main contract of SC2507 has a range of [450, 510], and for options, one can buy volatility within the range [2][3]. - **Urea**: The inventory may be depleted faster, and the short - term futures price will oscillate at a high level in the range of [1850, 1950]. One can buy options to expand volatility [2]. - **PX and PTA**: Both are driven by strong supply - demand and tariff benefits, showing a strong trend. PX9 - 1 short - term calendar spreads and PX - SC spread expansion are recommended; for PTA, short - term 9 - 1 calendar spreads are considered, and a mid - term reverse view is taken [2]. - **Agricultural Products**: - **Palm Oil**: After a post - noon decline due to a negative MPOB report, it is expected to rebound above 8000 [2]. - **Sugar**: Based on the positive data from Brazil in late April, one can either stay on the sidelines or trade short on rebounds [2]. - **Cotton**: With the easing of the Sino - US trade war, attention should be paid to the resistance at 13500 [2]. - **Special Commodities**: - **Glass**: The market sentiment is pessimistic, and the 09 contract should be observed for a breakthrough at the 1000 - point level [2]. - **Rubber**: With the easing of Sino - US tariff conflicts, the price is expected to trade in the range of 14500 - 15500, and one can try shorting at the upper end of the range [2]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The spot price is stable, but the futures price is under pressure. A wait - and - see approach is recommended [2]. - **New Energy Commodities**: - **Polysilicon**: The industry fundamentals are expected to improve, and long positions or calendar spreads can be held [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The trading is intense, and the price is expected to range between 62,000 - 66,000 [2].