Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Gasoline supply contraction leads to profit expansion, indirectly supporting the price of PX. Sanctions on Russia cause tight supply at the crude oil end, widening the spread between PX and naphtha, while PTA processing fees are compressed to below 200. Despite the end of the peak seasons (Golden September and Silver October), export demand may improve due to the easing of the China-US trade war. Downstream weaving has performed well, and the current peak season is expected to last until November. The impact of potential tariff cuts on domestic exports needs attention [2]. - The inventory of East China's ethylene glycol ports has increased significantly compared to last week, with an increase of 120,000 tons. The price of ethylene is unable to support the upward trend of ethylene glycol prices, and new plant startups continue to put pressure on ethylene glycol prices. The tightness of spot supply due to low inventory is mainly reflected in the basis. Although coal prices have risen, they do not provide strong cost support for ethylene glycol, and the profit of coal-based ethylene glycol has been restored. The China-US trade negotiation has reached an agreement, and tariff cuts may increase the subsequent export demand for textile and clothing, and the downstream weaving load may remain optimistic [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Quotes - **PTA**: The PTA spot price decreased from 4,600 yuan/ton to 4,590 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton. The PTA main futures price increased from 4,648 yuan/ton to 4,670 yuan/ton, an increase of 22 yuan/ton. The spot processing fee decreased from 192.6 yuan/ton to 173.3 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19.3 yuan/ton. The basis remained unchanged at -77. The number of PTA warehouse receipts increased from 93,560 to 98,450, an increase of 4,890 [2]. - **MEG**: The MEG main futures price increased from 3,875 yuan/ton to 3,891 yuan/ton, an increase of 16 yuan/ton. The MEG domestic price decreased from 3,981 yuan/ton to 3,961 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton. The basis decreased from 68 to 66, a decrease of 2 [2]. - **PX**: The CFR China PX price increased from 821 to 825, an increase of 4. The PX-naphtha spread increased from 239 to 248, an increase of 10 [2]. Industry Chain Start - Up Conditions - The PX startup rate remained unchanged at 88.03%. The PTA startup rate remained unchanged at 76.31%. The MEG startup rate increased from 63.74% to 64.10%, an increase of 0.36%. The polyester load decreased from 89.70% to 89.07%, a decrease of 0.63% [2]. Product Sales - **Polyester Filament**: The POY 150D/48F price decreased from 6,600 to 6,580, a decrease of 20. The POY cash flow decreased from 83 to 79, a decrease of 4. The FDY 150D/96F price decreased from 6,805 to 6,795, a decrease of 10. The FDY cash flow increased from -212 to -206, an increase of 6. The DTY 150D/48F price increased from 7,860 to 7,865, an increase of 5. The DTY cash flow increased from 143 to 164, an increase of 21. The filament sales rate decreased from 54% to 43%, a decrease of 11 percentage points [2]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber**: The 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber price increased from 6,365 to 6,385, an increase of 20. The staple fiber cash flow increased from 198 to 234, an increase of 36. The staple fiber sales rate decreased from 41% to 40%, a decrease of 1 percentage point [2]. - **Polyester Chips**: The semi - bright chip price decreased from 5,595 to 5,575, a decrease of 20. The chip cash flow decreased from -22 to -26, a decrease of 4. The chip sales rate increased from 51% to 57%, an increase of 6 percentage points [2]. Device Maintenance - A 2.2 million - ton PTA device in East China has slightly reduced its load, and the recovery time needs further tracking [2].

Group 1: Report's Core Views - Gasoline profit and low benzene prices support PX. The gasoline crack spread has risen above $15, prompting refineries to prioritize gasoline production and reduce aromatics unit feedstock. PTA processing fees have been compressed to below 200. Industry profits are still constrained by overcapacity due to new plant commissions. Despite the end of the "Golden September and Silver October," export demand may improve under the easing of the China-US trade war. Downstream weaving has performed well recently, and the current peak season is expected to last until November. Attention should be paid to whether the reduction of China-US tariffs can further stimulate domestic exports. Bottle chips and staple fiber costs follow suit [2] Group 2: Data Summary Price and Cost Data - PTA spot price decreased from 4605 to 4600, a change of -5.00; MEG domestic price decreased from 4003 to 3981, a change of -22.00; PTA closing price decreased from 4704 to 4648, a change of -56.00; MEG closing price decreased from 3953 to 3875, a change of -78.00; 1.4D direct-spun polyester staple fiber price decreased from 6415 to 6365, a change of -50.00; short fiber basis increased from 122 to 123, a change of 1.00; 12-1 spread decreased from 44 to 56, a change of -12.00; polyester staple fiber cash flow increased from 240 to 246, a change of 6.00; 1.4D imitation large chemical fiber price remained unchanged at 5400; the price difference between 1.4D direct-spun and imitation large chemical fiber decreased from 1015 to 965, a change of -50.00; East China water bottle chip price decreased from 5760 to 5712, a change of -48.00; hot-filled polyester bottle chip price decreased from 5760 to 5712, a change of -48.00; carbonated polyester bottle chip price decreased from 5860 to 5812, a change of -48.00; foreign water bottle chip price remained unchanged at 760; bottle chip spot processing fee decreased from 482 to 445, a change of -36.35; T32S pure polyester yarn price remained unchanged at 10310; T32S pure polyester yarn processing fee increased from 3895 to 3945, a change of 50.00; polyester-cotton yarn 65/35 45S price remained unchanged at 16300; cotton 328 price increased from 14440 to 14445, a change of 5.00; polyester-cotton yarn profit increased from 1589 to 1620, a change of 31.26; primary three-dimensional hollow (with silicon) price remained unchanged at 7020; hollow staple fiber 6 - 15D cash flow increased from 542 to 553, a change of 11.65; primary low-melting staple fiber price remained unchanged at 7480 [2] Market and Production Data - Direct-spun staple fiber load (weekly) decreased from 94.40% to 93.90%, a change of -0.01; polyester staple fiber sales decreased from 72.00% to 37.00%, a change of -35.00%; polyester yarn startup rate (weekly) remained unchanged at 63.50%; recycled cotton-type load index (weekly) increased from 51.00% to 51.50%, a change of 0.01 [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views - Gasoline profits and low benzene prices support PX. The gasoline crack spread has risen above $15, prompting refineries to prioritize gasoline production and reduce aromatics unit feedstock. PTA processing fees have been compressed to below 200. Industry profits are still constrained by overcapacity due to new plant commissions. Despite the end of the peak seasons in September and October, export demand may improve under the easing of the China-US trade war. The current peak season in the downstream weaving industry is expected to last until November. Attention should be paid to whether the reduction of China-US tariffs can further stimulate domestic exports. Bottle chips and staple fiber costs follow suit [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Conditions of Short Fibers - The price of polyester staple fiber futures rose by 36 to 6238. In the spot market, the prices of polyester staple fiber production plants remained stable, while those of traders increased slightly. Downstream buyers purchased as needed, and on - site transactions were scarce. The price of 1.56dtex*38mm semi - bright natural white (1.4D) polyester staple fiber in the East China market was 6200 - 6460 (cash on the spot, tax - included, self - pick - up), 6320 - 6580 in the North China market (cash on the spot, tax - included, delivered), and 6200 - 6400 in the Fujian market (cash on the spot, tax - included, delivered) [2] Market Conditions of Bottle Chips - The mainstream market price of polyester bottle chips increased. Due to the rising polymerization cost, the support for polyester staple fiber strengthened. The prices of manufacturers remained firm, while those of traders increased slightly. Downstream procurement intention was low, and on - site transactions were average. The prices of East China water bottle chips, hot - filled polyester bottle chips, and carbonated polyester bottle chips all increased, and the spot processing fee of bottle chips was 442 [2] Other Product Information - The price of T32S pure polyester yarn remained unchanged at 10310, and the processing fee was 3895. The price of polyester - cotton yarn 65/35 45S was 16300, and the profit was 1579. The price of cotton 328 decreased by 25 to 14440. The price of virgin three - dimensional hollow (with silicon) was 7020, and the cash flow of hollow staple fiber 6 - 15D was 542. The price of virgin low - melting - point staple fiber was 7480 [2] Operating Rate and Production and Sales Data - The direct - spinning staple fiber load (weekly) was 93.90%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points from 94.40%. The production and sales of polyester staple fiber were 48.00%, a decrease of 24 percentage points from 72.00%. The opening rate of polyester yarn (weekly) was 63.50%, unchanged. The recycled cotton - type load index (weekly) was 51.00%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points from 51.50% [3]

Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - Gasoline profit and low benzene prices jointly support PX. The gasoline crack spread has risen above $15, prompting refineries to prioritize gasoline production and reduce feedstock for aromatics units. The processing fee of PTA has been compressed to less than 200 again. Industry profits are still constrained by overcapacity due to new plant commissions. Although the peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October" are over, export demand may improve under the background of the easing of the Sino - US trade war. The downstream weaving has performed well recently, and the current peak season is expected to last until November. It is necessary to pay attention to whether the reduction of Sino - US tariffs can further stimulate domestic exports. Bottle chips and staple fibers follow the cost [2] Summary by Related Indicators Spot Price Changes - PTA spot price increased from 4540 to 4575, up 35 [2] - MEG internal price increased from 3972 to 4013, up 41 [2] - PTA closing price decreased from 4688 to 4664, down 24 [2] - MEG closing price increased from 3924 to 3942, up 18 [2] - 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber price increased from 6380 to 6415, up 35 [2] - Short - fiber basis decreased from 135 to 122, down 13 [2] - 12 - 1 spread decreased from 34 to 38, down 4 [2] - Polyester staple fiber cash flow increased from 240 to 246, up 6 [2] - 1.4D imitation large - chemical fiber price remained unchanged at 5400 [2] - The price difference between 1.4D direct - spun and imitation large - chemical fiber increased from 980 to 1015, up 35 [2] - East China water bottle chip price decreased from 5700 to 5698, down 2 [2] - Hot - filled polyester bottle chip price decreased from 5700 to 5698, down 2 [2] - Carbonated - grade polyester bottle chip price decreased from 5800 to 5798, down 2 [2] - Outer - market water bottle chip price remained unchanged at 760 [2] - Bottle chip spot processing fee decreased from 488 to 442, down 45.66 [2] - T32S pure polyester yarn price remained unchanged at 10310 [2] - T32S pure polyester yarn processing fee decreased from 3930 to 3865, down 35 [2] - Polyester - cotton yarn 65/35 45S price remained unchanged at 16300 [2] - Cotton 328 price decreased from 14490 to 14465, down 25 [2] - Polyester - cotton yarn profit decreased from 1593 to 1579, down 13.75 [2] - Primary three - dimensional hollow (with silicon) price remained unchanged at 7020 [2] - Hollow staple fiber 6 - 15D cash flow decreased from 608 to 564, down 43.66 [2] - Primary low - melting - point staple fiber price remained unchanged at 7480 [2] Operating Rate and Sales Rate - Direct - spun staple fiber load (weekly) increased from 93.90% to 94.40%, up 0.01 [3] - Polyester staple fiber sales rate decreased from 86.00% to 48.00%, down 38.00% [3] - Polyester yarn startup rate (weekly) remained unchanged at 63.50% [3] - Regenerated cotton - type load index (weekly) increased from 51.00% to 51.50%, up 0.01 [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The PTA market is strongly supported by PX, with a slight increase in the PTA market. The spot supply is sufficient, and the spot basis fluctuates within a limited range. The gasoline supply contraction leads to an expansion of gasoline profits, which indirectly supports the price of PX. The PTA supply side contracts slightly, the polyester start - up is stable, and the polyester load remains above 90%. The export of domestic polyester is still optimistic. Although the "Golden September and Silver October" period has ended, the export demand may improve under the easing of the Sino - US trade war [2]. - The ethylene price fails to support the strength of the ethylene glycol price. New device startups continuously put pressure on the ethylene glycol price. The low - inventory - induced spot tightness is mainly reflected through the basis. The coal price rises, but it does not provide stronger cost support for ethylene glycol, and the profit of coal - based ethylene glycol has been repaired. The Sino - US trade negotiation is reached, and the tariff reduction may increase the subsequent export demand for textile and clothing, and the downstream weaving load may remain optimistic [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Data - **INE Crude Oil and PTA - SC**: On November 6, 2025, INE crude oil was 460.4 yuan/barrel, and PTA - SC was 1342.2 yuan/ton. On November 7, 2025, INE crude oil was 460.6 yuan/barrel, and PTA - SC was 1316.8 yuan/ton, with a change of 0.20 and - 25.45 respectively [2]. - **PTA/SC Ratio**: It decreased from 1.4012 on November 6, 2025, to 1.3934 on November 7, 2025, a change of - 0.0078 [2]. - **CFR China PX**: It decreased from 826 on November 6, 2025, to 823 on November 7, 2025, a change of - 3 [2]. - **PX - Naphtha Spread**: It decreased from 249 on November 6, 2025, to 247 on November 7, 2025, a change of - 1 [2]. - **PTA Main Contract Futures Price**: It decreased from 4688 yuan/ton on November 6, 2025, to 4664 yuan/ton on November 7, 2025, a change of - 24.0 [2]. - **PTA Spot Price**: It increased from 4540 on November 6, 2025, to 4575 on November 7, 2025, a change of 35.0 [2]. - **PTA Spot Processing Fee**: It increased from 120.9 yuan/ton on November 6, 2025, to 188.8 yuan/ton on November 7, 2025, a change of 67.9 [2]. - **PTA Disk Processing Fee**: It decreased from 268.9 yuan/ton on November 6, 2025, to 262.8 yuan/ton on November 7, 2025, a change of - 6.1 [2]. - **PTA Main Contract Basis**: It increased from (80) on November 6, 2025, to (78) on November 7, 2025, a change of 2.0 [2]. - **PTA Warehouse Receipt Quantity**: It increased from 75888 on November 6, 2025, to 89012 on November 7, 2025, a change of 13124 [2]. - **MEG Main Contract Futures Price**: It increased from 3924 yuan/ton on November 6, 2025, to 3942 yuan/ton on November 7, 2025, a change of 18.0 [2]. - **MEG - Naphtha**: It increased from (145.36) on November 6, 2025, to (143.55) on November 7, 2025, a change of 1.8 [2]. - **MEG Domestic Market Price**: It increased from 3972 on November 6, 2025, to 4013 on November 7, 2025, a change of 41.0 [2]. - **MEG Main Contract Basis**: It increased from 70 on November 6, 2025, to 73 on November 7, 2025, a change of 3.0 [2]. Industry Chain Start - up Situation - **PX Start - up Rate**: It increased from 86.21% on November 6, 2025, to 88.03% on November 7, 2025, a change of 1.82% [2]. - **PTA Start - up Rate**: It decreased from 77.84% on November 6, 2025, to 77.42% on November 7, 2025, a change of - 0.42% [2]. - **MEG Start - up Rate**: It remained unchanged at 63.74% from November 6 to 7, 2025 [2]. - **Polyester Load**: It increased from 89.56% on November 6, 2025, to 89.70% on November 7, 2025, a change of 0.14% [2]. Polyester Product Data - **POY150D/48F**: The price increased from 6515 on November 6, 2025, to 6560 on November 7, 2025, a change of 45.0. The cash flow increased from 53 to 54, a change of 1.0 [2]. - **FDY150D/96F**: The price increased from 6730 on November 6, 2025, to 6770 on November 7, 2025, a change of 40.0. The cash flow decreased from (232) to (236), a change of - 4.0 [2]. - **DTY150D/48F**: The price increased from 7790 on November 6, 2025, to 7840 on November 7, 2025, a change of 50.0. The cash flow increased from 128 to 134, a change of 6.0 [2]. - **Long - Filament Sales Volume**: It decreased from 70% on November 6, 2025, to 48% on November 7, 2025, a change of - 22% [2]. - **1.4D Direct - Spun Polyester Staple Fiber**: The price increased from 6380 on November 6, 2025, to 6415 on November 7, 2025, a change of 35. The cash flow decreased from 268 to 259, a change of - 9.0 [2]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber Sales Volume**: It decreased from 70% on November 6, 2025, to 46% on November 7, 2025, a change of - 24% [2]. - **Semi - Gloss Chip**: The price increased from 5555 on November 6, 2025, to 5575 on November 7, 2025, a change of 20.0. The cash flow decreased from (7) to (31), a change of - 24.0. The sales volume decreased from 143% to 53%, a change of - 90% [2]. Device Maintenance - A 2.2 - million - ton PTA device in East China reduced its load slightly, and the recovery time is to be tracked [2].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent surge in group buying of real estate in China, led by economist Lang Xianping, highlighting the strategies and market conditions that are driving this trend [4][12][16]. Group 1: Market Activity - Lang Xianping's group successfully purchased over 150 new homes in a recent buying spree, exceeding initial expectations of 50-60 units [4]. - The property "Hongrongyuan Jiayu Jiu Xi" has seen increased demand post-group purchase, leading to a stock shortage and plans for new product launches [6][21]. Group 2: Economic Context - The current economic climate is at a critical juncture, with expectations of imminent interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which could stimulate economic recovery [12][13]. - The stock market has already begun to reflect these expectations, with A-shares returning to 3500 points and significant gains in U.S. stocks, particularly Nvidia reaching a market cap of $4 trillion [14][15]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - Lang Xianping's investment strategy emphasizes three key principles: timing, product selection, and the importance of "good housing" [12][19]. - The focus on "good housing" reflects a shift in the market towards properties that offer livability and long-term value, as seen in the success of the Jiayu project [20][23].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The US court's ruling that the Trump administration overstepped its authority in imposing tariffs may boost macro - sentiment, but the spot market remains weak in price support. Attention should be paid to the 90 - day spot freight rate range, the feedback of terminal demand under the easing of tariff policies, and the final result of the ruling [4]. - The spot freight rate shows a slight shock without an obvious peak - season trend, and the futures market fluctuates downward. Future attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates [4]. 3. Summary of Related Content 3.1 Freight Rate Indexes - On May 26, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1247.05 points, down 1.4% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 1719.79 points, up 18.9% from the previous period [3]. - On May 23, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 1106.08 points, up 9.02% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 783.58 points, up 4.35% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US - West route was 1894.63 points, up 4.50% from the previous period [3]. - The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) announced a price of 1586.12 points on May 23, up 106.73 points from the previous period. The SCFI price for the European route was 1317 USD/TEU, up 14.12% from the previous period; the SCFI price for the US - West route was 3275 USD/FEU, up 5.95% from the previous period [3]. - On May 23, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1107.40 points, up 0.2% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1392.61 points, down 2.6% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US - West route was 908.14 points, up 3.6% from the previous period [3]. 3.2 PMI Data - The eurozone's May manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.4, the highest in 33 months; the April services PMI preliminary value was 49.7 (expected 50.5). The April composite PMI preliminary value was 50.1 (expected 50.3, previous value 50.9). The April Sentix investor confidence index was - 19.5 (expected - 10, previous value - 2.9) [3]. - China's March manufacturing PMI was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. The March Caixin China manufacturing PMI was 51.2, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, reaching a four - month high [3]. - The US April S&P Global manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 50.7 (expected 49.1, March final value 50.2); the services PMI preliminary value was 51.4 (expected 52.8, March final value 54.4); the composite PMI preliminary value was 51.2 (expected 52.2, March final value 53.5) [4]. 3.3 Futures Market - On May 28, the main contract 2508 closed at 1949.5, down 4.08%, with a trading volume of 77,000 lots and an open interest of 43,800 lots, an increase of 594 lots from the previous day [4]. 3.4 Trading Strategies - Short - term strategy: The 2506 contract is based on the logic of basis convergence. For the 2508 contract, it is recommended to lightly test short positions when it rebounds above 2250 and set stop - losses [5]. - Arbitrage strategy: Under the background of tariff easing, the 90 - day exemption will lead to a near - strong and far - weak freight rate trend. Attention should be paid to the result of the court ruling, and for now, it is mainly in a positive - spread structure [5]. - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profit when each contract rallies and wait for the callback to stabilize before judging the subsequent direction [5]. 3.5 Contract Rules - The daily price limit for contracts 2506 - 2604 is 16% [5]. - The company's margin for contracts 2506 - 2604 is 26% [5]. - The daily opening limit for all contracts 2506 - 2604 is 100 lots [5].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - MSK slightly increased the spot rate at the beginning of June, and the futures market opened low and closed high, meeting the daily report's expectations. It is recommended to take profits when the price rises and wait for a callback opportunity [1]. - There are differences in the future freight rate trends and the implementation of price increases, resulting in intense long - short competition in the futures market. The slight increase in MSK's price at the beginning of June drove the market to rise slightly [3]. - The tariff has become a means of trade negotiation, adding significant uncertainties to future shipping trends. Although the easing of the Sino - US trade war may boost the digestion of US - bound shipping capacity, price wars among shipping alliances cannot be avoided [3]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Freight Rate Indexes - On May 12, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1265.30 points, down 2.9% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 1446.36 points, down 0.6% from the previous period. On May 16, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1479.39 points, down 134.22 points from the previous period, with the European route price at 1154 USD/TEU, down 0.60%, and the US - West route at 3091 USD/FEU, up 31.70% [2]. - On May 16, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 1014.55 points, up 6.53% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 750.91 points, down 0.78% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US - West route was 1813.08 points, up 23.18% from the previous period. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1104.88 points, down 0.1% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1430.35 points, down 1.0%; the CCFI for the US - West route was 876.92 points, up 2.2% [2]. 3.2 PMI Data - The preliminary value of the Eurozone's manufacturing PMI in May was 49.4, the highest in 33 months; the preliminary value of the service PMI in April was 49.7 (expected 50.5). The preliminary value of the Eurozone's composite PMI in April was 50.1 (expected 50.3, previous value 50.9). The Eurozone's Sentix investor confidence index in April was - 19.5 (expected - 10, previous value - 2.9) [2]. - In March, China's manufacturing PMI was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, and the Caixin China manufacturing PMI was 51.2, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, reaching a four - month high [2]. - The preliminary value of the US S&P Global manufacturing PMI in April was 50.7 (expected 49.1, final value in March 50.2); the preliminary value of the service PMI was 51.4 (expected 52.8, final value in March 54.4); the preliminary value of the composite PMI was 51.2 (expected 52.2, final value in March 53.5) [3]. 3.3 Futures Market - On May 22, the main contract 2508 closed at 2206.0, down 0.95%, with a trading volume of 91,300 lots and an open interest of 51,600 lots, a decrease of 1405 lots from the previous day [3]. 3.4 Trading Strategies - Short - term strategy: Due to the volatile external policies in the short term, the operation is difficult. If participating in each contract, it is recommended to focus on the medium - to - long - term [4]. - Arbitrage strategy: Against the backdrop of tariff easing, the 90 - day exemption will lead to a situation where the near - term freight rate is stronger than the long - term, but the window period is short and the fluctuations are large. Currently, it is mainly in a positive arbitrage structure [4]. - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when the price of each contract rises, and then wait for the price to stabilize after a callback and continue to try to go long on the freight rate rebound [4]. 3.5 Other Information - The US is negotiating with Hamas through intermediaries in Doha to promote a cease - fire agreement between Palestine and Israel [5]. - The European Commission plans to levy a 2 - euro tax on small packages entering the EU, most of which come from China [5]. - Geopolitical conflicts, extreme weather, and sharp fluctuations in the external crude oil market are factors affecting the shipping market [6].

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs raised the 12-month target for the Tokyo Stock Price Index (Topix) from 2775 to 2900 and adjusted the 2025 annual earnings growth forecast from -1% to 2% [1] - The adjustment by Goldman Sachs follows a strong upward trend in the Topix index, which has risen for 13 consecutive trading days as of May 13, after the US and China announced a temporary reduction in tariffs [1] - Foreign investors have increased their holdings in Japanese stocks for six consecutive weeks, marking the longest streak since February 16, 2024 [1] Group 2 - Major contributors to the rise in the Topix index include Japanese exporters like Toyota and Nintendo, with strong performance from bank stocks [2] - The easing of trade tensions between the US and China is expected to positively impact Japan's export economy, which has a significant reliance on these two countries [2] - There is a growing possibility of a trade agreement between Japan and the US due to the positive trade consensus between China and the US [2] Group 3 - Concerns have been raised about overly optimistic sentiment in the Japanese market, suggesting that market expectations may be ahead of actual developments [3]

Market Movements - US stock index futures are all up, with Dow futures rising by 0.24%, S&P 500 futures up by 0.27%, and Nasdaq futures also increasing by 0.27% [1] - European indices are also showing positive movements, with Germany's DAX up by 0.66%, UK's FTSE 100 up by 0.44%, France's CAC 40 up by 0.57%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 up by 0.48% [2][3] - WTI crude oil has increased by 0.19% to $61.74 per barrel, while Brent crude oil is up by 0.31% to $64.73 per barrel [3][4] Economic Outlook - Barclays has revised its US economic growth forecast for this year to 0.5%, up from a previous estimate of -0.3%, and for next year to 1.6%, up from 1.5% [4] - Goldman Sachs has also adjusted its forecast, now predicting a 1% growth for the US economy in 2025, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from earlier estimates, and has reduced the probability of a recession in the next 12 months from 45% to 35% [4] Company News - Applied Materials (AMAT.US) reported Q2 revenue of $7.1 billion, a 7% year-over-year increase, but slightly below analyst expectations of $7.13 billion. The semiconductor systems segment contributed $5.26 billion, also below expectations [8] - RLX Technology (RLX.US) reported Q1 revenue of 808 million RMB, a 46.5% year-over-year increase, and a Non-GAAP net profit of 251 million RMB, up 21% [9] - General Electric (GE.US) and Boeing (BA.US) secured a $14.5 billion order from the UAE, part of a larger $200 billion deal announced by Trump [9] - Meta (META.US) has delayed the release of its flagship AI model "Behemoth" due to technical challenges, raising concerns about its AI strategy [10] Upcoming Economic Data - Key economic data releases include US April building permits, import price index, new housing starts, and the Michigan consumer sentiment index [11]