Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - PX is expected to experience a short - term callback and engage in reverse calendar spread trading. PTA will follow the cost - side callback in the short term and focus on reverse calendar spread trading at high levels. MEG should close long positions around 4200 - 4300, with support below 4000. The 5 - 9 calendar spread long positions should be closed. [1][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Price and Fluctuation - **Futures**: The closing prices of PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC futures on the previous day were 8902, 6200, 4305, 7620, and 666.3 respectively, with price drops of - 126, - 116, - 292, - 160, and - 105.5 and percentage drops of - 1.40%, - 1.84%, - 6.35%, - 2.06%, and - 13.67% respectively. The month - spreads of PX5 - 9, PTA5 - 9, MEG5 - 9, PF3 - 4, and SC2 - 3 also changed, with price changes of 66, 54, - 100, - 40, and - 5.2 respectively. [2] - **Spot**: The spot prices of PX CFR China, PTA in East China, MEG, naphtha MOPJ, and Dated Brent on the previous day were 1157.33 dollars/ton, 6360 yuan/ton, 4188 yuan/ton, 841.5 dollars/ton, and 87.94 dollars/barrel respectively, with price drops of - 188.34 dollars/ton, - 425 yuan/ton, - 622 yuan/ton, - 150 dollars/ton, and - 14.9 dollars/barrel respectively. [2] - **Spot processing fees**: The spot processing fees such as PX - naphtha spread, PTA processing fee, short - fiber processing fee, bottle - chip processing fee, and MOPJ naphtha - Dubai crude oil spread also changed. For example, the PX - naphtha spread increased by 17 dollars/ton, while the PTA processing fee decreased by 35.45 yuan/ton. [2] Market Conditions - On March 10, Asian xylene prices fell during the trading session. The PX market lost upstream support and partially reversed the previous day's gains. The upstream ICE Brent futures and Platts - evaluated naphtha C + F Japan index also declined. [3] - In the Asian trading session on the afternoon of March 10, crude oil futures fell as world leaders announced measures to ease supply risks. PTA and PX futures also closed lower than the previous trading day. Some market participants adopted a wait - and - see attitude, and a trader expected the reverse trading structure to continue. [4] Supply - side Changes - For PX, the supply reduction is limited. Ningbo Daxie had a short - term shutdown, and the shipping speed of Japan's ENEOS slowed down. [5] - For MEG, a 1.8 - million - ton/year synthetic - gas - to - ethylene - glycol plant in Shaanxi started partial capacity maintenance today, expected to last about 3 weeks. A 620,000 - ton/year ethylene - glycol plant in Kuwait has recently shut down, and the restart time will be followed up. [4][5] Trend Intensity - The trend intensities of p - xylene, PTA, and MEG are all - 1, indicating a relatively bearish outlook. [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PX has a strong unilateral trend, suggesting a long 05 and short 09 hedge, and long PX short PF. Geopolitical issues support the near - end cost, and attention should be paid to domestic PX operating rate changes [9]. - PTA has a strong near - end support. It is recommended to use a long 05 and short 09 hedge and long SC short PTA. Cost - end crude oil and PX are expected to rise, with main valuation disturbances from PX cost [9]. - MEG should be operated in the 3700 - 4000 range with a 5 - 9 positive spread strategy. Iranian partial blockade of the Strait of Hormuz may reduce marginal imports, and short - covering may drive price recovery [10]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **PX**: The previous day's closing price of the PX main contract was 7836, up 442 with a daily increase of 5.98%. The PX5 - 9 spread closed at 30, up 56 from the previous day [2]. - **PTA**: The previous day's closing price of the PTA main contract was 5552, up 302 with a daily increase of 5.75%. The PTA5 - 9 spread closed at 14, up 40 from the previous day [2]. - **MEG**: The previous day's closing price of the MEG main contract was 3925, up 222 with a daily increase of 6.00%. The MEG5 - 9 spread closed at - 107, up 25 from the previous day [2]. - **PF**: The previous day's closing price of the PF main contract was 7002, up 350 with a daily increase of 5.26%. The PF3 - 4 spread closed at - 254, down 192 from the previous day [2]. - **SC**: The previous day's closing price of the SC main contract was 527.8, up 39.4 with a daily increase of 8.07%. The SC2 - 3 spread closed at 4.5, up 0.1 from the previous day [2]. Spot Market - **PX**: The previous day's PX CFR China price was 999.33 dollars/ton, up 67.66 dollars from the previous day. The PX - naphtha spread was 295.04 dollars, down 2.13 dollars [2]. - **PTA**: The previous day's PTA price in East China was 5345 yuan/ton, up 145 yuan. The PTA processing fee was 285.43 yuan, down 90.45 yuan [2]. - **MEG**: The previous day's MEG spot price was 3750 yuan/ton, up 145 yuan [2]. - **Naphtha**: The previous day's MOPJ naphtha price was 715.5 dollars/ton, up 78.88 dollars. The MOPJ naphtha - Dubai crude oil spread was - 4.34 dollars, unchanged [2]. Fundamental Data PX - In 2025, the Middle East had 6.1 million tons of PX nameplate capacity, accounting for 7.4% of global output. On March 2, PX prices rose significantly, and the estimated price was 999 dollars/ton, up 67 dollars from last Friday. An East China 2.5 million - ton PX unit is under maintenance, and another 2 million - ton unit is planned to be shut down in mid - March for 30 - 40 days [5]. PTA - An East China 2.5 million - ton PTA unit, a 3.6 million - ton unit, and a South China 1.25 million - ton unit have resumed normal operation. An East China 3 million - ton PTA unit is planned to be shut down for maintenance tomorrow for about 18 days [6]. MEG - An Iranian 450,000 - ton/year MEG unit has shut down, and the restart time is undetermined. The March shipment plan of another 400,000 - ton/year unit has been canceled. On March 2, the MEG port inventory in some main ports in East China was about 1.002 million tons, up 20,000 tons [6]. Polyester Market - On March 2, the sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were highly differentiated, with an average sales rate of 8 - 9%. The sales of direct - spun polyester staple fiber plants were partially strong, with an average sales rate of 88%. Over the weekend, the sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were strong, with an average sales rate of over 300% [7]. - Two East China polyester bottle - chip units totaling 1.2 million tons have restarted. A Henan 150,000 - ton direct - spun polyester staple fiber unit stopped feeding for maintenance on March 2 for 10 days. A Zhejiang 400,000 - ton unit has restarted, and a 200,000 - ton polyester unit in Taicang has restarted [8]. Geopolitical Impact - US President Donald Trump said the war between the US and Iran is expected to last four to five weeks but may last longer. On March 2 afternoon, crude oil futures rose due to the intensification of US - Iran tensions, and the key shipping route through the Strait of Hormuz was affected [3].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - PX: With a significant drop in crude oil prices and a comprehensive weakening of polyester demand, there's a need to be cautious of the negative feedback from an unexpected decline in polyester operation rate. PX should not be chased at high prices. The current concentration of polyester industry chain profits in the PX segment is based on the relatively high operation rate of polyester, but the weakening demand will limit the upside of PX. The blending oil logic has ended, and the short - process profit has reached a new high, making it difficult to support PX valuation. PX supply and demand are tight. It is recommended to operate in the 6550 - 7000 range, exit the 5 - 9 positive spread, and close the long PX and short PTA/BZ positions [6]. - PTA: Although the cost - end PX supply and demand are tight, polyester is starting to accumulate inventory and incur losses. There may be a negative feedback in the industry chain due to potential production cuts, so the upside of PTA is limited. It is recommended to operate in the 4500 - 4800 range, exit the 5 - 9 positive spread, and close the long PX and short PTA/BZ positions [7]. - MEG: The price of 3600 yuan/ton has reached the cost line of most production facilities, leading to some plants' operational shutdowns and a slight improvement in the supply - demand pattern. The 01 contract should not be shorted. Low profits have led to a widespread decline in plant operation enthusiasm. The supply - demand balance sheet of ethylene glycol has slightly improved [7]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Dynamics - PX: A 260,000 - ton PX plant in Japan restarted as planned last weekend after a shutdown for maintenance in early October. The naphtha price fell in the late trading session. On December 16, the PX price dropped, with a March Asian spot deal at 828. The PX valuation on December 16 was 827 dollars/ton, down 6 dollars from the previous day [4]. - MEG: A 200,000 - ton/year syngas - to - ethylene glycol plant in Guangxi postponed its restart by half a month. A 600,000 - ton/year syngas - to - ethylene glycol plant in Sichuan restarted and produced output recently. A 450,000 - ton/year ethylene glycol plant in Saudi Arabia shut down recently, and the restart time is undetermined [4][5]. - Polyester: A 250,000 - ton polyester plant in Wujiang plans to shut down for maintenance around mid - January and restart after the Spring Festival. On December 16, the sales of Jiangsu and Zhejiang polyester yarns had partial volume increases, with an estimated average sales rate of 5 - 60% by 3:30 pm. The sales of direct - spun polyester staple fibers declined on December 16, with an average sales rate of 46% by 3:00 pm [5]. Trend Intensity - PX trend intensity: - 1 - PTA trend intensity: - 1 - MEG trend intensity: 0 [5] Futures and Spot Data | Futures | PX Main | PTA Main | MEG Main | PF Main | SC Main | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Yesterday's Closing Price | 6744 | 4668 | 3788 | 6106 | 430.6 | | Change | - 40 | - 28 | 137 | 8 | - 5.9 | | Change Rate | - 0.59% | - 0.60% | 3.75% | 0.13% | - 1.35% | | Month Spread | PX1 - 5 | PTA1 - 5 | MEG1 - 5 | PF12 - 1 | SC11 - 12 | | Yesterday's Closing Price | 54 | - 60 | - 88 | - 54 | - 2 | | Previous Day's Closing Price | 54 | - 68 | - 78 | - 70 | - 0.2 | | Change | 0 | 8 | - 10 | 16 | - 1.8 | | Spot | PX CFR China (USD/ton) | PTA East China (Yuan/ton) | MEG Spot | Naphtha MOPJ | Dated Brent (USD/barrel) | | Yesterday's Price | 827.33 | 4594 | 3636 | 535.62 | 60.2 | | Previous Day's Price | 832.67 | 4615 | 3640 | 545.75 | 61.4 | | Change | - 5.34 | - 21 | - 4 | - 10.12 | - 1.2 | | Spot Processing Fee | PX - Naphtha Spread | PTA Processing Fee | Staple Fiber Processing Fee | Bottle Chip Processing Fee | MOPJ Naphtha - Dubai Crude Spread | | Yesterday's Price | 282.92 | 174.56 | 256.44 | 123.25 | - 4.23 | | Previous Day's Price | 281.42 | 185.2 | 271.42 | 116.31 | - 4.34 | | Change | 1.5 | - 10.64 | - 14.97 | 6.95 | 0.11 | [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - PX is expected to have a short - term rebound due to a decline in short - term device operation rates and a tight - balance situation, but remains weak in the fourth quarter. PTA is in a tight - supply - demand balance, with concerns about future supply increases. MEG has a weak unilateral trend but limited downside space [2][10][11] Content Summary by Categories Market Quotes - **Futures**: PX, PTA, PF, and SC futures prices rose, while MEG futures prices fell. The PX11 - 1 and PTA11 - 1 month - spreads increased, the MEG1 - 5 and SC11 - 12 month - spreads decreased, and the PF11 - 12 month - spread remained unchanged [4] - **Spot**: PX, PTA, and naphtha MOPJ spot prices rose, while MEG and Dated Brent spot prices fell. PX - naphtha spread and PTA processing fees decreased, short - fiber and bottle - chip processing fees increased, and MOPJ naphtha - Dubai crude oil spread remained unchanged [4] Market Dynamics - **PX**: On September 10, Asian PX prices rose, supported by rising crude oil prices and concerns about supply shortages. The PX supply remains tight, and downstream polyester activities in China are strong [5][8] - **PTA**: The PTA spot price rose to 4,625 yuan/ton, with mainstream basis at 01 - 63 [8] - **MEG**: The MEG inner - market fluctuated slightly, with the current spot basis at a premium of 116 - 120 yuan/ton to the 01 contract [8] - **Polyester**: The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang improved locally, with an estimated average sales volume of about 90%. The sales of direct - spun polyester staple fibers also improved, with an average sales volume of 54% [9] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of PX and PTA is 1, and the trend intensity of MEG is 0 [10] Views and Suggestions - **PX**: In the short - term, there may be a rebound. In the long - term, it is weak in the fourth quarter. Suggestions include buying on dips (range: 6,590 - 6,780), 11 - 01 calendar spread long, 1 - 5 calendar spread short, long PX short EB, long naphtha short PX, and 01/05 long PX short PTA [10] - **PTA**: It is in a tight - supply - demand balance, but there are concerns about future supply increases. The supply is expected to be sufficient in the future [10] - **MEG**: The unilateral trend is weak, but the downside space is limited. Suggest buying on dips [11]

Report Overview - Market status: PX price declined on August 4, following the drop in crude oil prices after OPEC+ decided to accelerate the removal of production cuts; MEG port inventory in East China decreased slightly; polyester sales were generally weak [5][8][9] - Investment ratings: PX - unilateral oscillating weakly and downward concessions; PTA - trending weakly, focus on positive spreads for monthly spreads; MEG - unilateral oscillating market [2] - Core view: For PX, conduct monthly spread reverse arbitrage and short PXN on rallies, with a weakening unilateral trend; for PTA, conduct positive spreads on monthly spreads at low levels, with a weakening unilateral trend; for MEG, conduct positive spreads on monthly spreads at low levels, with a downward - driving unilateral trend [9][10][11] Market Data Futures Data | Futures | PX Main | PTA Main | MEG Main | PF Main | SC Main | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Yesterday's closing price | 6754 | 4698 | 4389 | 6410 | 514.3 | | Change | 6812 | - 46 | - 16 | - 34 | - 13.6 | | Change rate | - 0.85% | - 0.97% | - 0.36% | - 0.53% | - 2.58% | | Monthly spread | PX9 - 1 | PTA9 - 1 | MEG9 - 1 | PF9 - 1 | SC9 - 10 | | Yesterday's closing price | 26 | - 34 | - 28 | - 60 | 5.5 | | Previous day's closing price | 22 | - 38 | - 34 | - 64 | 4.6 | | Change | 4 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 0.9 | [4] Spot Data | Spot | PX CFR China ($/ton) | PTA East China (yuan/ton) | MEG Spot | Naphtha MOPJ | Dated Brent ($/barrel) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Yesterday's price | 838.33 | 4700 | 4455 | 584.62 | 70.84 | | Previous day's price | 845.67 | 4740 | 4480 | 603.88 | 71.39 | | Change | - 7.34 | - 40 | - 25 | - 19.25 | - 0.55 | [4] Spot Processing Fee Data | Spot processing fee | PX - Naphtha spread | PTA processing fee | Staple fiber processing fee | Bottle chip processing fee | MOPJ Naphtha - Dubai crude spread | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Yesterday's price | 254.33 | 106.78 | 137.95 | - 0.61 | - 6.01 | | Previous day's price | 247.33 | 192.91 | 116.12 | - 27.37 | - 6.01 | | Change | 7 | - 86.13 | 21.83 | 26.76 | 0 | [4] Market Analysis PX - Price movement: On August 4, Asian PX prices continued to fall, following the decline in crude oil prices after OPEC+ decided to accelerate the removal of production cuts. The PX - naphtha spread widened daily supported by weak naphtha prices [5][7] - Supply and demand: In August, there is no new PX maintenance, but some plants have restart plans, and the operating rate of existing plants will increase. However, the PTA device operating rate is expected to continue to decline in August, and the PX supply - demand balance will become looser [9] - Trading strategy: Conduct monthly spread reverse arbitrage and short PXN on rallies. The unilateral trend is weak, and it is recommended to short on rallies in the short term [9] PTA - Supply and demand: Polyester factory operating rates are low, and their willingness to hold raw materials has decreased. The terminal weaving sector's concentrated procurement has overdrawn subsequent restocking momentum, and the polyester sector has entered a inventory - building pattern. In August, the polyester operating rate is expected to remain in the 88 - 89% range [10] - Trading strategy: Conduct positive spreads on monthly spreads at low levels. The unilateral trend is weak, and pay attention to positive spreads on monthly spreads at low levels [10][11] MEG - Supply and demand: The domestic device operating rate will continue to rise to over 70%. In August, Zhejiang Petrochemical 80 is expected to restart, while the restart time of Satellite Petrochemical has been postponed to the end of September. Polyester device operating rates are low, and the willingness to hold MEG has decreased [11] - Trading strategy: Conduct positive spreads on monthly spreads at low levels. The unilateral trend is downward - driven, and pay attention to the ratio of warehouse receipts to positions during the main contract roll - over [11] Polyester - Sales: On August 4, the sales of direct - spun polyester staple fibers were average, with an average sales - to - production ratio of 52%. The sales of polyester filament in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak, with an average sales - to - production ratio of about 40% in the afternoon of the 4th and about 20 - 30% on the weekend [8][9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Bottle Chip (PR)**: The market is expected to be in a weak oscillation state. With the implementation of production cuts and potential inventory reduction, there is room for the processing fee to expand. It is recommended to go long on PR and short on PF [8]. - **Staple Fiber (PF)**: The market will experience short - term oscillation and face medium - term pressure. It is also advisable to go long on PR and short on PF [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Bottle Chip (PR) 3.1.1 Valuation and Profit - The cost of polymerization has decreased, and the spot processing fee of bottle chips has recovered to around 350 yuan/ton. The export profit has also improved, and the internal - external price difference has narrowed [50]. - The bottle chip - slice spread has been at a historical low since 2024, and some producers may switch production. The short - fiber - bottle chip spread is currently at a high valuation, and it is recommended to go long on PR and short on PF [27]. - The bottle chip - PVC spread is at a high level, with limited further substitution drive. The bottle chip has high cost - effectiveness compared to PP, and the substitution in the packaging field continues [28][29]. 3.1.2 Fundamental Operation - **Production and Operation**: The effective production capacity has reached 2.168 billion tons. This week, the operating rate dropped to 86.5%, but the weekly output remained at a high level [33]. - **Raw Material End**: The absolute inventory of PTA is still at a low level, and the MEG port inventory in East China is also at a certain level [40][46]. - **Inventory**: The overall PTA inventory of polyester factories has decreased. The inventory of domestic polyester bottle chip factories is about 18 days, and the social inventory is expected to be 3.02 million tons in July [55]. - **Device Changes**: Production cuts are being implemented as expected. For example, Yisheng Hainan has shut down 1.25 million tons of production capacity, and Chongqing Wankai has postponed its shutdown [60]. - **Demand**: The downstream operating rate has remained stable. In 2025, from January to May, the consumption of soft drinks and edible oils was relatively weak, but there are still new production lines being put into operation in the beverage industry. The demand for sheet materials is average, and the supermarket consumption has improved month - on - month [64][70]. - **Export**: From January to May, the export increased rapidly year - on - year, but in June, it was affected by freight rates. The traditional important export destinations have maintained good growth, and the re - export trade to North America through South Korea and Mexico is also showing positive trends [83][88]. 3.1.3 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - In July - August, the market is expected to be in a tight balance. Assuming that the production cuts of large manufacturers are implemented on schedule and the downstream demand increases by 5% compared to the same period last year, the market may experience a slight inventory reduction in July [95][96]. 3.2 Staple Fiber (PF) 3.2.1 Valuation - The PF basis has remained stable in oscillation, and the futures - spot structure has maintained a back structure. The processing fee on the futures market has recovered [101][110]. 3.2.2 Fundamental Operation - **Production**: The operating rate of staple fiber factories is at a high level, with sporadic production cuts. The average operating rate of direct - spinning staple fiber is 93%, and the operating rate of spinning - used direct - spinning staple fiber is 96% (down 1%) [112][115]. - **Inventory**: Downstream customers are on the sidelines, and the inventory of polyester filament has rapidly increased again [118]. - **Export**: The export data in May was good [124]. - **Profit**: With the decrease in cost, most profits have recovered, but polyester chips are still in a loss state [125]. - **Downstream**: The operating rate of polyester yarn has slightly decreased. Yarn replenishment is average, mainly consuming raw material inventory, and the finished product inventory has increased. The profit of polyester yarn is generally better than last year, and the reverse substitution between virgin and recycled materials continues [135][140][141]. - **Weaving**: Some weaving machines have reduced their operating rates seasonally [150][153].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Bottle Chip (PR)**: The market is expected to be in a weak oscillation pattern. With the approaching implementation of production cuts by leading factories, and considering factors such as high downstream domestic demand, reduced impact of freight on exports, and potential inventory reduction in July - August, it is recommended to go long on PR and short on PF [8][9][10]. - **Staple Fiber (PF)**: The market will be in a short - term oscillation and face medium - term pressure. Although there are plans for production cuts and contract reductions in July, the implementation may be relatively weak due to less prominent profit and inventory pressure. It is also recommended to go long on PR and short on PF [8][9]. 3. Summary by Directory Bottle Chip (PR) - **Valuation and Profit** - Aggregate cost has significantly increased, reaching around 6050 yuan/ton this week. Spot processing fees have recovered from 200 yuan/ton to the 270 - 300 yuan/ton range, and export profits have also improved, reaching about 700 - 720 yuan/ton [48]. - The bottle chip - slice spread has been at a historical low since 2024, and the short - fiber - bottle chip spread has compressed to a level similar to last year. The bottle chip - PVC spread is at a high level, and the substitution drive is low, while the bottle chip has a high cost - performance ratio compared to PP, and the substitution in the packaging field continues [27][28][29]. - **Fundamental Operation** - **Supply**: The total production capacity involved in production cuts by leading factories is about 2.4 million tons. This week, Huarun's three factories started production cuts, with an operating rate of 88%. Yisheng and Wankai will conduct maintenance in early July. The current effective production capacity has reached 21.68 million tons (CCF caliber), and this week's bottle chip load dropped to 88.7% [9][33]. - **Demand**: This week, the downstream operation remained stable. Beverage companies' device loads ranged from 80% - 95%, edible oil factories' average operation was around 60% - 80%, and the operation rate of sheet materials in East China was around 60% - 80% and in South China was around 40% - 60%. From January to May 2025, soft drink production increased by 3.0% year - on - year, and beverage product retail sales increased by 0.2% year - on - year. There are still many new beverage factory production lines to be put into operation this year [62][68][69]. - **Inventory**: The overall PTA inventory of polyester factories remained stable. The inventory of domestic polyester bottle chip factories was about 17.6 days (CCF caliber). According to CCF data, the estimated social inventory in May was 2.93 million tons, 3.1 million tons in June, and 3.02 million tons in July. After the implementation of production cuts, it is expected to reduce inventory [53]. - **Device Changes**: Sanfangxiang has a total of 1.8 million tons of production capacity shut down. Huarun's polyester bottle chip devices in Changzhou, Jiangyin, and Zhuhai started to cut production by 20% on June 22, with a total reduction of 660,000 tons. Yisheng Hainan plans to shut down and overhaul 750,000 tons of production capacity on July 1, Yisheng Dahua plans to shut down and overhaul 350,000 tons of production capacity on July 1, and Chongqing Wankai plans to shut down and overhaul 600,000 tons of production capacity on July 1 [57]. - **Export**: From January to May, exports increased rapidly year - on - year. In May, the total export volume of polyester bottle chips and slices was 742,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 30.6%. However, there was a situation of over - exporting in May, which may affect the actual export volume from June to July. Overseas bottle chip production capacity has increased little in recent years, and overseas downstream demand will increasingly rely on imports [81][82][78]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet** - In July - August, it is expected to be in a tight - balance state. Assuming that the large - scale production cut plan is implemented on schedule and lasts until August, and the downstream demand increases by 5% year - on - year compared to the peak season of last year, and the export demand is affected by freight in June - July but recovers in August, there may be a slight inventory reduction in July [93][94]. Staple Fiber (PF) - **Valuation and Profit** - The PF basis has maintained a stable oscillation, and the futures - spot structure remains in a backwardation structure. The disk processing fee has recovered [99][108]. - **Fundamental Operation** - **Supply**: The average load of direct - spinning staple fiber is 93.8%, and the operation rate of direct - spinning staple fiber for spinning is 97.1% (- 1%). Ningbo Zhuocheng has reduced the production of hollow staple fiber by 100 tons per day, and Sichuan Jixing's 200,000 - ton direct - spinning staple fiber device has been shut down for maintenance and is expected to restart in early July [113]. - **Demand**: The downstream polyester yarn operation rate has remained stable, but yarn replenishment is average, mainly consuming raw material inventory, and the finished product inventory has increased [133][135]. - **Inventory**: The downstream is in a wait - and - see state, and the inventory accumulation continues [118]. - **Profit**: With the decline in cost, most profits have recovered, but polyester chips are still in a loss state [125].

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **PX**: Cost continues to support the rise in PX valuation. The unilateral trend is expected to be strong, and the positive spread of the monthly difference should be held. PXN is strengthening [3]. - **PTA**: The unilateral price is expected to be strong. It is recommended to take profit on the positive spread of the monthly difference at high levels. Hold the strategy of going long on PX and short on PTA [3]. - **MEG**: The unilateral trend is strong, but the upside space may be limited. Hedge by going long on PX and short on MEG [4]. 3. Summary by Sections **Fundamental Tracking** - **Daily Price Changes**: On June 20, 2025, compared with the previous day, PX, PTA, and MEG decreased by 0.3%, 0.2%, and 0.8% respectively, while PF increased by 0.4%, and SC decreased by 0.8% [1]. - **Monthly Difference Changes**: The daily changes in the monthly differences of PX (9 - 1), PTA (9 - 1), and MEG (9 - 1) on June 20 were -40, -26, and -9 respectively, while PF(7 - 8) increased by 28, and PX - EB07 increased by 11 [1]. - **Inter - Variety Spread Changes**: The daily changes in the spreads of PTA09 - 0.65PX09, PTA09 - MEG09, etc. on June 20 showed various trends, such as an increase of 2 in PTA09 - 0.65PX09 and an increase of 28 in PTA09 - MEG09 [1]. - **Basis and Inventory Changes**: The PX basis increased by 18 on June 20, while the PTA basis decreased by 60. The PTA warehouse receipts decreased by 43,123, and the PX warehouse receipts decreased by 5 [1]. **Market Overview** - **Geopolitical Factor**: The Iranian parliament has approved the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, but the highest security agency needs to make the final decision [3]. **Market Views** - **PX**: The core driver of the current market remains on the cost side. Due to the Middle - East geopolitical conflicts, multiple PX plants have shut down for maintenance, tightening the supply in the Middle - East and potentially affecting China's PX imports. Domestic PX operating rates are expected to decline further [3]. - **PTA**: It is still a cost - driven market. The risk of the war between the US and Iran escalating may lead to a rise in crude oil prices, providing strong cost support for PTA. Fundamentally, PTA has entered a pattern of inventory accumulation [4]. - **MEG**: The domestic supply has room for growth. Although the profit margins of some devices have been compressed, the overall load has increased to 70%. Overseas, multiple Iranian plants have shut down, with the impact on China's imports expected to be reflected in the far - month contracts [4]. **Trend Intensity** - The trend intensity of PX is 2, while that of PTA and MEG is 1 [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - PX: Multiple units have unexpectedly reduced their loads, so PX is expected to strengthen in the short - term. A long PX and short PTA strategy is recommended. With supply decreasing and demand increasing, PX is in a de - stocking pattern. The PX - naphtha spread is weak as raw material prices strengthen [6]. - PTA: Polyester staple fiber plans to cut production in July, increasing the long - term supply - demand pressure on PTA. However, the spot basis for the near - month contract remains high, so a long - near and short - far (positive spread) strategy is advisable. A long PX and short PTA strategy is also recommended. Supply is increasing while demand is decreasing, and it has entered a stock - building pattern this week [6][7]. - MEG: Iranian ethylene glycol units have stopped production, so MEG is expected to be in a short - term volatile and strengthening trend. Consider reducing the position of long PTA and short MEG. The profit of ethylene glycol units has weakened this week but is still at a high level, and the unit operating rate will significantly increase. Attention should be paid to the operating and shipping changes of Iranian ethylene glycol units due to the Israel - Iran conflict [7][8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Price and Change**: On June 16, 2025, the PX main contract closed at 6758, down 0.3% from the previous day; PTA main contract closed at 4766, down 0.3%; MEG main contract closed at 4374, up 0.9%; PF main contract closed at 6510, down 0.3%; SC main contract closed at 3874, up 1.2% [2]. - **Monthly Spread**: The PX (9 - 1) monthly spread on June 16 was 146, a daily change of - 2; PTA (9 - 1) was 112, a daily change of 6; MEG (9 - 1) was - 1, a daily change of - 3; PF(7 - 8) was 84, a daily change of 34; PX - EB07 was - 629, a daily change of 115 [2]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: The PTA09 - 0.65PX09 spread on June 16 was 373, a daily change of - 2; PTA09 - MEG09 was 392, a daily change of - 56; PTA07 - PF07 was - 1638, a daily change of - 50; PF07盘面加工费 was 904, a daily change of 37; PTA09 - LU09 was 937, a daily change of - 60 [2]. - **Basis and Others**: The PX basis on June 16 was 307, a daily change of 22; PTA basis was 220; MEG basis was 86, a daily change of 1; PF basis was - 10, a daily change of - 60; PX - naphtha spread was 234. The PTA warehouse receipts were 84853, a daily change of - 1002; ethylene glycol warehouse receipts were 6232, a daily change of - 282; short - fiber warehouse receipts were 5464; PX warehouse receipts were 0, a daily change of - 5; SC warehouse receipts were 4029000 [2]. 3.2 Market Overview - **PX**: On June 17, the PX price increased significantly. The estimated price of PX was 884 dollars/ton, up 18 dollars from June 16. China's PX supply has tightened, and the spot price has risen. As of June 13, China's PX operating rate was estimated at 85.8%, lower than the previous week's 87%. South Korea's May PX exports decreased by 26% month - on - month to 321,956 tons due to domestic production decline, and exports to China decreased by about 22% to 302,433 tons [4][5]. - **MEG**: A 400,000 - ton/year synthetic gas - to - ethylene glycol unit in Shaanxi is restarting, and it is expected to produce products tomorrow. From June 16 to June 22, the planned arrivals at major ports are about 100,000 tons [5]. - **Polyester**: On June 17, the sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were generally weak, with an average sales rate of about 30% by 3:30 pm. The sales of direct - spun polyester staple fiber were average, with an average sales rate of 56% by 3:00 pm [6]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of p - xylene, PTA, and MEG is all 1 [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For PX/PTA, the upside space for the unilateral price is limited. Be vigilant about the negative impact of polyester production cuts and focus on positions where processing fees are compressed. The supply - demand balance sheet continues to reduce inventory, which is beneficial for near - month positive spread positions. There is a slight recovery in textile and clothing orders from the US during the 90 - day low - tariff window, driving a positive feedback process in the entire industry chain. However, with the rapid rise of raw materials such as PX, PTA, and MEG, polyester profits are quickly compressed. Also, as the PX - N spread rises to $280 per ton and the PX - MX spread rises above $120 per ton, the enthusiasm for PX production increases, and PTA supply also grows with the restart of multiple plants, weakening the upward momentum of the unilateral price and challenging the processing fees [5] - The trend intensities of p - xylene, PTA, and MEG are all - 1 [5] - Investment strategies: Short PX and long SC; long PX and short PTA; long PTA and short MEG [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Closing prices**: On May 21, 2025, the closing prices of PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC were 6766, 4788, 4414, 6544, and 3571 respectively. The daily changes were 1.5%, 1.2%, 0.0%, 0.6%, and 0.4% [2] - **Monthly spreads**: On May 21, 2025, the monthly spreads of PX (9 - 1), PTA(6 - 9), MEG (9 - 1), PF(7 - 8), and PX - EB09 were 168, 118, 44, 30, and - 444 respectively, with daily changes of 26, 6, - 3, - 2, and 102 [2] - **Inter - variety spreads**: On May 21, 2025, the spreads of PTA09 - 0.65PX09, PTA09 - MEG09, PTA09 - PF09, PF07 processing margin, and PTA09 - LU09 were 390, 374, - 1698, 881, and 1332 respectively, with daily changes of - 8, 55, 8, - 14, and 45 [2] - **Basis**: On May 21, 2025, the basis of PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and PX - naphtha spread were 160, 110, 85, 6, and 259 respectively, with daily changes of - 31, - 40, - 14, - 48, and 1 [2] - **Warehouse receipts**: On May 21, 2025, the number of warehouse receipts for PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, PX, and SC were 67714, 9775, 2692, 200, and 4029000 respectively. The daily changes of PTA and ethylene glycol warehouse receipts were - 102 and - 2289 respectively [2] 3.2 Market Overview - **PX**: A 400 - million - ton PX plant in East China has basically resumed normal operation after reducing its load due to front - end equipment maintenance around May 13 [4] - **PTA**: A 2.5 - million - ton PTA plant in East China is restarting and is expected to produce products tomorrow; a 3 - million - ton PTA plant in East China started maintenance today and is expected to last for about 2 weeks; a 1 - million - ton PTA plant in Southwest China has postponed its restart to around this weekend; a 1.2 - million - ton PTA plant in Northwest China has produced products and will maintain a load of 60% - 70% [4] - **MEG**: A 300,000 - ton/year syngas - to - ethylene glycol plant ended maintenance yesterday and is currently operating at a 50% load; a 500,000 - ton/year ethylene glycol plant in East China has recently switched from EG to EO production, and its ethylene glycol production load has dropped to 30% - 40%, with a plan to start full - epoxy production in July [4] - **Polyester**: The overall sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak today, with an estimated average sales volume of about 40% by 4 pm. The sales of direct - spun polyester staple fibers improved compared to yesterday, with an average sales volume of 69% by 3 pm [5]