Report Overview - Market status: PX price declined on August 4, following the drop in crude oil prices after OPEC+ decided to accelerate the removal of production cuts; MEG port inventory in East China decreased slightly; polyester sales were generally weak [5][8][9] - Investment ratings: PX - unilateral oscillating weakly and downward concessions; PTA - trending weakly, focus on positive spreads for monthly spreads; MEG - unilateral oscillating market [2] - Core view: For PX, conduct monthly spread reverse arbitrage and short PXN on rallies, with a weakening unilateral trend; for PTA, conduct positive spreads on monthly spreads at low levels, with a weakening unilateral trend; for MEG, conduct positive spreads on monthly spreads at low levels, with a downward - driving unilateral trend [9][10][11] Market Data Futures Data | Futures | PX Main | PTA Main | MEG Main | PF Main | SC Main | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Yesterday's closing price | 6754 | 4698 | 4389 | 6410 | 514.3 | | Change | 6812 | - 46 | - 16 | - 34 | - 13.6 | | Change rate | - 0.85% | - 0.97% | - 0.36% | - 0.53% | - 2.58% | | Monthly spread | PX9 - 1 | PTA9 - 1 | MEG9 - 1 | PF9 - 1 | SC9 - 10 | | Yesterday's closing price | 26 | - 34 | - 28 | - 60 | 5.5 | | Previous day's closing price | 22 | - 38 | - 34 | - 64 | 4.6 | | Change | 4 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 0.9 | [4] Spot Data | Spot | PX CFR China ($/ton) | PTA East China (yuan/ton) | MEG Spot | Naphtha MOPJ | Dated Brent ($/barrel) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Yesterday's price | 838.33 | 4700 | 4455 | 584.62 | 70.84 | | Previous day's price | 845.67 | 4740 | 4480 | 603.88 | 71.39 | | Change | - 7.34 | - 40 | - 25 | - 19.25 | - 0.55 | [4] Spot Processing Fee Data | Spot processing fee | PX - Naphtha spread | PTA processing fee | Staple fiber processing fee | Bottle chip processing fee | MOPJ Naphtha - Dubai crude spread | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Yesterday's price | 254.33 | 106.78 | 137.95 | - 0.61 | - 6.01 | | Previous day's price | 247.33 | 192.91 | 116.12 | - 27.37 | - 6.01 | | Change | 7 | - 86.13 | 21.83 | 26.76 | 0 | [4] Market Analysis PX - Price movement: On August 4, Asian PX prices continued to fall, following the decline in crude oil prices after OPEC+ decided to accelerate the removal of production cuts. The PX - naphtha spread widened daily supported by weak naphtha prices [5][7] - Supply and demand: In August, there is no new PX maintenance, but some plants have restart plans, and the operating rate of existing plants will increase. However, the PTA device operating rate is expected to continue to decline in August, and the PX supply - demand balance will become looser [9] - Trading strategy: Conduct monthly spread reverse arbitrage and short PXN on rallies. The unilateral trend is weak, and it is recommended to short on rallies in the short term [9] PTA - Supply and demand: Polyester factory operating rates are low, and their willingness to hold raw materials has decreased. The terminal weaving sector's concentrated procurement has overdrawn subsequent restocking momentum, and the polyester sector has entered a inventory - building pattern. In August, the polyester operating rate is expected to remain in the 88 - 89% range [10] - Trading strategy: Conduct positive spreads on monthly spreads at low levels. The unilateral trend is weak, and pay attention to positive spreads on monthly spreads at low levels [10][11] MEG - Supply and demand: The domestic device operating rate will continue to rise to over 70%. In August, Zhejiang Petrochemical 80 is expected to restart, while the restart time of Satellite Petrochemical has been postponed to the end of September. Polyester device operating rates are low, and the willingness to hold MEG has decreased [11] - Trading strategy: Conduct positive spreads on monthly spreads at low levels. The unilateral trend is downward - driven, and pay attention to the ratio of warehouse receipts to positions during the main contract roll - over [11] Polyester - Sales: On August 4, the sales of direct - spun polyester staple fibers were average, with an average sales - to - production ratio of 52%. The sales of polyester filament in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak, with an average sales - to - production ratio of about 40% in the afternoon of the 4th and about 20 - 30% on the weekend [8][9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Bottle Chip (PR)**: The market is expected to be in a weak oscillation state. With the implementation of production cuts and potential inventory reduction, there is room for the processing fee to expand. It is recommended to go long on PR and short on PF [8]. - **Staple Fiber (PF)**: The market will experience short - term oscillation and face medium - term pressure. It is also advisable to go long on PR and short on PF [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Bottle Chip (PR) 3.1.1 Valuation and Profit - The cost of polymerization has decreased, and the spot processing fee of bottle chips has recovered to around 350 yuan/ton. The export profit has also improved, and the internal - external price difference has narrowed [50]. - The bottle chip - slice spread has been at a historical low since 2024, and some producers may switch production. The short - fiber - bottle chip spread is currently at a high valuation, and it is recommended to go long on PR and short on PF [27]. - The bottle chip - PVC spread is at a high level, with limited further substitution drive. The bottle chip has high cost - effectiveness compared to PP, and the substitution in the packaging field continues [28][29]. 3.1.2 Fundamental Operation - **Production and Operation**: The effective production capacity has reached 2.168 billion tons. This week, the operating rate dropped to 86.5%, but the weekly output remained at a high level [33]. - **Raw Material End**: The absolute inventory of PTA is still at a low level, and the MEG port inventory in East China is also at a certain level [40][46]. - **Inventory**: The overall PTA inventory of polyester factories has decreased. The inventory of domestic polyester bottle chip factories is about 18 days, and the social inventory is expected to be 3.02 million tons in July [55]. - **Device Changes**: Production cuts are being implemented as expected. For example, Yisheng Hainan has shut down 1.25 million tons of production capacity, and Chongqing Wankai has postponed its shutdown [60]. - **Demand**: The downstream operating rate has remained stable. In 2025, from January to May, the consumption of soft drinks and edible oils was relatively weak, but there are still new production lines being put into operation in the beverage industry. The demand for sheet materials is average, and the supermarket consumption has improved month - on - month [64][70]. - **Export**: From January to May, the export increased rapidly year - on - year, but in June, it was affected by freight rates. The traditional important export destinations have maintained good growth, and the re - export trade to North America through South Korea and Mexico is also showing positive trends [83][88]. 3.1.3 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - In July - August, the market is expected to be in a tight balance. Assuming that the production cuts of large manufacturers are implemented on schedule and the downstream demand increases by 5% compared to the same period last year, the market may experience a slight inventory reduction in July [95][96]. 3.2 Staple Fiber (PF) 3.2.1 Valuation - The PF basis has remained stable in oscillation, and the futures - spot structure has maintained a back structure. The processing fee on the futures market has recovered [101][110]. 3.2.2 Fundamental Operation - **Production**: The operating rate of staple fiber factories is at a high level, with sporadic production cuts. The average operating rate of direct - spinning staple fiber is 93%, and the operating rate of spinning - used direct - spinning staple fiber is 96% (down 1%) [112][115]. - **Inventory**: Downstream customers are on the sidelines, and the inventory of polyester filament has rapidly increased again [118]. - **Export**: The export data in May was good [124]. - **Profit**: With the decrease in cost, most profits have recovered, but polyester chips are still in a loss state [125]. - **Downstream**: The operating rate of polyester yarn has slightly decreased. Yarn replenishment is average, mainly consuming raw material inventory, and the finished product inventory has increased. The profit of polyester yarn is generally better than last year, and the reverse substitution between virgin and recycled materials continues [135][140][141]. - **Weaving**: Some weaving machines have reduced their operating rates seasonally [150][153].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Bottle Chip (PR)**: The market is expected to be in a weak oscillation pattern. With the approaching implementation of production cuts by leading factories, and considering factors such as high downstream domestic demand, reduced impact of freight on exports, and potential inventory reduction in July - August, it is recommended to go long on PR and short on PF [8][9][10]. - **Staple Fiber (PF)**: The market will be in a short - term oscillation and face medium - term pressure. Although there are plans for production cuts and contract reductions in July, the implementation may be relatively weak due to less prominent profit and inventory pressure. It is also recommended to go long on PR and short on PF [8][9]. 3. Summary by Directory Bottle Chip (PR) - **Valuation and Profit** - Aggregate cost has significantly increased, reaching around 6050 yuan/ton this week. Spot processing fees have recovered from 200 yuan/ton to the 270 - 300 yuan/ton range, and export profits have also improved, reaching about 700 - 720 yuan/ton [48]. - The bottle chip - slice spread has been at a historical low since 2024, and the short - fiber - bottle chip spread has compressed to a level similar to last year. The bottle chip - PVC spread is at a high level, and the substitution drive is low, while the bottle chip has a high cost - performance ratio compared to PP, and the substitution in the packaging field continues [27][28][29]. - **Fundamental Operation** - **Supply**: The total production capacity involved in production cuts by leading factories is about 2.4 million tons. This week, Huarun's three factories started production cuts, with an operating rate of 88%. Yisheng and Wankai will conduct maintenance in early July. The current effective production capacity has reached 21.68 million tons (CCF caliber), and this week's bottle chip load dropped to 88.7% [9][33]. - **Demand**: This week, the downstream operation remained stable. Beverage companies' device loads ranged from 80% - 95%, edible oil factories' average operation was around 60% - 80%, and the operation rate of sheet materials in East China was around 60% - 80% and in South China was around 40% - 60%. From January to May 2025, soft drink production increased by 3.0% year - on - year, and beverage product retail sales increased by 0.2% year - on - year. There are still many new beverage factory production lines to be put into operation this year [62][68][69]. - **Inventory**: The overall PTA inventory of polyester factories remained stable. The inventory of domestic polyester bottle chip factories was about 17.6 days (CCF caliber). According to CCF data, the estimated social inventory in May was 2.93 million tons, 3.1 million tons in June, and 3.02 million tons in July. After the implementation of production cuts, it is expected to reduce inventory [53]. - **Device Changes**: Sanfangxiang has a total of 1.8 million tons of production capacity shut down. Huarun's polyester bottle chip devices in Changzhou, Jiangyin, and Zhuhai started to cut production by 20% on June 22, with a total reduction of 660,000 tons. Yisheng Hainan plans to shut down and overhaul 750,000 tons of production capacity on July 1, Yisheng Dahua plans to shut down and overhaul 350,000 tons of production capacity on July 1, and Chongqing Wankai plans to shut down and overhaul 600,000 tons of production capacity on July 1 [57]. - **Export**: From January to May, exports increased rapidly year - on - year. In May, the total export volume of polyester bottle chips and slices was 742,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 30.6%. However, there was a situation of over - exporting in May, which may affect the actual export volume from June to July. Overseas bottle chip production capacity has increased little in recent years, and overseas downstream demand will increasingly rely on imports [81][82][78]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet** - In July - August, it is expected to be in a tight - balance state. Assuming that the large - scale production cut plan is implemented on schedule and lasts until August, and the downstream demand increases by 5% year - on - year compared to the peak season of last year, and the export demand is affected by freight in June - July but recovers in August, there may be a slight inventory reduction in July [93][94]. Staple Fiber (PF) - **Valuation and Profit** - The PF basis has maintained a stable oscillation, and the futures - spot structure remains in a backwardation structure. The disk processing fee has recovered [99][108]. - **Fundamental Operation** - **Supply**: The average load of direct - spinning staple fiber is 93.8%, and the operation rate of direct - spinning staple fiber for spinning is 97.1% (- 1%). Ningbo Zhuocheng has reduced the production of hollow staple fiber by 100 tons per day, and Sichuan Jixing's 200,000 - ton direct - spinning staple fiber device has been shut down for maintenance and is expected to restart in early July [113]. - **Demand**: The downstream polyester yarn operation rate has remained stable, but yarn replenishment is average, mainly consuming raw material inventory, and the finished product inventory has increased [133][135]. - **Inventory**: The downstream is in a wait - and - see state, and the inventory accumulation continues [118]. - **Profit**: With the decline in cost, most profits have recovered, but polyester chips are still in a loss state [125].

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **PX**: Cost continues to support the rise in PX valuation. The unilateral trend is expected to be strong, and the positive spread of the monthly difference should be held. PXN is strengthening [3]. - **PTA**: The unilateral price is expected to be strong. It is recommended to take profit on the positive spread of the monthly difference at high levels. Hold the strategy of going long on PX and short on PTA [3]. - **MEG**: The unilateral trend is strong, but the upside space may be limited. Hedge by going long on PX and short on MEG [4]. 3. Summary by Sections **Fundamental Tracking** - **Daily Price Changes**: On June 20, 2025, compared with the previous day, PX, PTA, and MEG decreased by 0.3%, 0.2%, and 0.8% respectively, while PF increased by 0.4%, and SC decreased by 0.8% [1]. - **Monthly Difference Changes**: The daily changes in the monthly differences of PX (9 - 1), PTA (9 - 1), and MEG (9 - 1) on June 20 were -40, -26, and -9 respectively, while PF(7 - 8) increased by 28, and PX - EB07 increased by 11 [1]. - **Inter - Variety Spread Changes**: The daily changes in the spreads of PTA09 - 0.65PX09, PTA09 - MEG09, etc. on June 20 showed various trends, such as an increase of 2 in PTA09 - 0.65PX09 and an increase of 28 in PTA09 - MEG09 [1]. - **Basis and Inventory Changes**: The PX basis increased by 18 on June 20, while the PTA basis decreased by 60. The PTA warehouse receipts decreased by 43,123, and the PX warehouse receipts decreased by 5 [1]. **Market Overview** - **Geopolitical Factor**: The Iranian parliament has approved the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, but the highest security agency needs to make the final decision [3]. **Market Views** - **PX**: The core driver of the current market remains on the cost side. Due to the Middle - East geopolitical conflicts, multiple PX plants have shut down for maintenance, tightening the supply in the Middle - East and potentially affecting China's PX imports. Domestic PX operating rates are expected to decline further [3]. - **PTA**: It is still a cost - driven market. The risk of the war between the US and Iran escalating may lead to a rise in crude oil prices, providing strong cost support for PTA. Fundamentally, PTA has entered a pattern of inventory accumulation [4]. - **MEG**: The domestic supply has room for growth. Although the profit margins of some devices have been compressed, the overall load has increased to 70%. Overseas, multiple Iranian plants have shut down, with the impact on China's imports expected to be reflected in the far - month contracts [4]. **Trend Intensity** - The trend intensity of PX is 2, while that of PTA and MEG is 1 [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - PX: Multiple units have unexpectedly reduced their loads, so PX is expected to strengthen in the short - term. A long PX and short PTA strategy is recommended. With supply decreasing and demand increasing, PX is in a de - stocking pattern. The PX - naphtha spread is weak as raw material prices strengthen [6]. - PTA: Polyester staple fiber plans to cut production in July, increasing the long - term supply - demand pressure on PTA. However, the spot basis for the near - month contract remains high, so a long - near and short - far (positive spread) strategy is advisable. A long PX and short PTA strategy is also recommended. Supply is increasing while demand is decreasing, and it has entered a stock - building pattern this week [6][7]. - MEG: Iranian ethylene glycol units have stopped production, so MEG is expected to be in a short - term volatile and strengthening trend. Consider reducing the position of long PTA and short MEG. The profit of ethylene glycol units has weakened this week but is still at a high level, and the unit operating rate will significantly increase. Attention should be paid to the operating and shipping changes of Iranian ethylene glycol units due to the Israel - Iran conflict [7][8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Price and Change**: On June 16, 2025, the PX main contract closed at 6758, down 0.3% from the previous day; PTA main contract closed at 4766, down 0.3%; MEG main contract closed at 4374, up 0.9%; PF main contract closed at 6510, down 0.3%; SC main contract closed at 3874, up 1.2% [2]. - **Monthly Spread**: The PX (9 - 1) monthly spread on June 16 was 146, a daily change of - 2; PTA (9 - 1) was 112, a daily change of 6; MEG (9 - 1) was - 1, a daily change of - 3; PF(7 - 8) was 84, a daily change of 34; PX - EB07 was - 629, a daily change of 115 [2]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: The PTA09 - 0.65PX09 spread on June 16 was 373, a daily change of - 2; PTA09 - MEG09 was 392, a daily change of - 56; PTA07 - PF07 was - 1638, a daily change of - 50; PF07盘面加工费 was 904, a daily change of 37; PTA09 - LU09 was 937, a daily change of - 60 [2]. - **Basis and Others**: The PX basis on June 16 was 307, a daily change of 22; PTA basis was 220; MEG basis was 86, a daily change of 1; PF basis was - 10, a daily change of - 60; PX - naphtha spread was 234. The PTA warehouse receipts were 84853, a daily change of - 1002; ethylene glycol warehouse receipts were 6232, a daily change of - 282; short - fiber warehouse receipts were 5464; PX warehouse receipts were 0, a daily change of - 5; SC warehouse receipts were 4029000 [2]. 3.2 Market Overview - **PX**: On June 17, the PX price increased significantly. The estimated price of PX was 884 dollars/ton, up 18 dollars from June 16. China's PX supply has tightened, and the spot price has risen. As of June 13, China's PX operating rate was estimated at 85.8%, lower than the previous week's 87%. South Korea's May PX exports decreased by 26% month - on - month to 321,956 tons due to domestic production decline, and exports to China decreased by about 22% to 302,433 tons [4][5]. - **MEG**: A 400,000 - ton/year synthetic gas - to - ethylene glycol unit in Shaanxi is restarting, and it is expected to produce products tomorrow. From June 16 to June 22, the planned arrivals at major ports are about 100,000 tons [5]. - **Polyester**: On June 17, the sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were generally weak, with an average sales rate of about 30% by 3:30 pm. The sales of direct - spun polyester staple fiber were average, with an average sales rate of 56% by 3:00 pm [6]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of p - xylene, PTA, and MEG is all 1 [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For PX/PTA, the upside space for the unilateral price is limited. Be vigilant about the negative impact of polyester production cuts and focus on positions where processing fees are compressed. The supply - demand balance sheet continues to reduce inventory, which is beneficial for near - month positive spread positions. There is a slight recovery in textile and clothing orders from the US during the 90 - day low - tariff window, driving a positive feedback process in the entire industry chain. However, with the rapid rise of raw materials such as PX, PTA, and MEG, polyester profits are quickly compressed. Also, as the PX - N spread rises to $280 per ton and the PX - MX spread rises above $120 per ton, the enthusiasm for PX production increases, and PTA supply also grows with the restart of multiple plants, weakening the upward momentum of the unilateral price and challenging the processing fees [5] - The trend intensities of p - xylene, PTA, and MEG are all - 1 [5] - Investment strategies: Short PX and long SC; long PX and short PTA; long PTA and short MEG [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Closing prices**: On May 21, 2025, the closing prices of PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC were 6766, 4788, 4414, 6544, and 3571 respectively. The daily changes were 1.5%, 1.2%, 0.0%, 0.6%, and 0.4% [2] - **Monthly spreads**: On May 21, 2025, the monthly spreads of PX (9 - 1), PTA(6 - 9), MEG (9 - 1), PF(7 - 8), and PX - EB09 were 168, 118, 44, 30, and - 444 respectively, with daily changes of 26, 6, - 3, - 2, and 102 [2] - **Inter - variety spreads**: On May 21, 2025, the spreads of PTA09 - 0.65PX09, PTA09 - MEG09, PTA09 - PF09, PF07 processing margin, and PTA09 - LU09 were 390, 374, - 1698, 881, and 1332 respectively, with daily changes of - 8, 55, 8, - 14, and 45 [2] - **Basis**: On May 21, 2025, the basis of PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and PX - naphtha spread were 160, 110, 85, 6, and 259 respectively, with daily changes of - 31, - 40, - 14, - 48, and 1 [2] - **Warehouse receipts**: On May 21, 2025, the number of warehouse receipts for PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, PX, and SC were 67714, 9775, 2692, 200, and 4029000 respectively. The daily changes of PTA and ethylene glycol warehouse receipts were - 102 and - 2289 respectively [2] 3.2 Market Overview - **PX**: A 400 - million - ton PX plant in East China has basically resumed normal operation after reducing its load due to front - end equipment maintenance around May 13 [4] - **PTA**: A 2.5 - million - ton PTA plant in East China is restarting and is expected to produce products tomorrow; a 3 - million - ton PTA plant in East China started maintenance today and is expected to last for about 2 weeks; a 1 - million - ton PTA plant in Southwest China has postponed its restart to around this weekend; a 1.2 - million - ton PTA plant in Northwest China has produced products and will maintain a load of 60% - 70% [4] - **MEG**: A 300,000 - ton/year syngas - to - ethylene glycol plant ended maintenance yesterday and is currently operating at a 50% load; a 500,000 - ton/year ethylene glycol plant in East China has recently switched from EG to EO production, and its ethylene glycol production load has dropped to 30% - 40%, with a plan to start full - epoxy production in July [4] - **Polyester**: The overall sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak today, with an estimated average sales volume of about 40% by 4 pm. The sales of direct - spun polyester staple fibers improved compared to yesterday, with an average sales volume of 69% by 3 pm [5]

Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report Core Views - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various financial and commodity markets, offering specific comments and operation suggestions for different varieties based on their current market conditions, supply - demand relationships, and macro - economic factors [2]. Summary by Categories Financial - **Stock Index Futures**: For IF2506, the lower support of the index is stable, one can sell out - of - the - money put options to earn premiums; for IH2506, the index opens high and closes low with sectoral rotation. One can also buy September IM contracts on dips and sell September out - of - the - money call options with a strike price of 6400 for a covered strategy [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: T2506 may fluctuate in the short term, with a wait - and - see approach. Focus on the capital market and economic data. Curve strategy suggests a steepening trade. The 10 - year and 30 - year treasury bond rates are around 1.66% and 1.92%, respectively, and are expected to fluctuate in the short term waiting for a driving force [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold is under short - term pressure with support around $3200 (¥745), and the sold out - of - the - money call options with a strike price above 800 can be held. Silver prices range between $32 - 33.5 (¥8000 - 8350), and an option straddle strategy can be tried [2]. Commodities - **Shipping**: With the easing of the Sino - US trade war, the spot price of the container shipping index (EC2506 for the European line) may rise. One can consider going long on the August contract or 8 - 10, 6 - 10 calendar spreads [2]. - **Steel**: The steel spot market is stabilizing with macro - level benefits. For RB2510, unilateral operations are on hold, and focus on the long - hot - rolled - coil short - raw - material arbitrage [2]. - **Iron Ore**: The increase in blast furnace maintenance may lead to a peak and decline in hot metal production. It is expected to trade in a range of 700 - 745 [2]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Coke prices are in a new round of price cuts, and coking coal is weak. One can go long on hot - rolled coil and short on coke or coking coal. The coal mine inventory is high, and there is still a possibility of price decline, with high hedging pressure in the futures market [2]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: - **Crude Oil**: The short - term oil price is likely to oscillate at a high level. The main contract of SC2507 has a range of [450, 510], and for options, one can buy volatility within the range [2][3]. - **Urea**: The inventory may be depleted faster, and the short - term futures price will oscillate at a high level in the range of [1850, 1950]. One can buy options to expand volatility [2]. - **PX and PTA**: Both are driven by strong supply - demand and tariff benefits, showing a strong trend. PX9 - 1 short - term calendar spreads and PX - SC spread expansion are recommended; for PTA, short - term 9 - 1 calendar spreads are considered, and a mid - term reverse view is taken [2]. - **Agricultural Products**: - **Palm Oil**: After a post - noon decline due to a negative MPOB report, it is expected to rebound above 8000 [2]. - **Sugar**: Based on the positive data from Brazil in late April, one can either stay on the sidelines or trade short on rebounds [2]. - **Cotton**: With the easing of the Sino - US trade war, attention should be paid to the resistance at 13500 [2]. - **Special Commodities**: - **Glass**: The market sentiment is pessimistic, and the 09 contract should be observed for a breakthrough at the 1000 - point level [2]. - **Rubber**: With the easing of Sino - US tariff conflicts, the price is expected to trade in the range of 14500 - 15500, and one can try shorting at the upper end of the range [2]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The spot price is stable, but the futures price is under pressure. A wait - and - see approach is recommended [2]. - **New Energy Commodities**: - **Polysilicon**: The industry fundamentals are expected to improve, and long positions or calendar spreads can be held [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The trading is intense, and the price is expected to range between 62,000 - 66,000 [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - PX: Short - term range - bound, recommend calendar spread (long near - term, short far - term), long PX against SC and EB [6] - PTA: Calendar spread (long near - term, short far - term), long PTA against SC. Consider shorting on rallies [7] - MEG: Weak unilateral trend, long PTA against MEG. Avoid chasing high in calendar spreads [7] 2. Core Views - The easing of Sino - US trade tensions and supply disruptions support the rise in PX prices. The recovery of polyester terminal demand and the rebound of crude oil also boost the valuation of the aromatics - polyester chain [4][6] - PTA is in a pattern of decreasing supply and increasing demand, continuing to draw down inventories. High processing fees delay some device maintenance, so the unilateral trend is hard to turn strongly upward [7] - The supply of MEG will continue to increase. Coal - based and oil - based production will see more restarts, and imports are high, making it difficult to reduce port inventories [7][8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Price and Change**: On May 7, 2025, PX closed at 6288, PTA at 4466, MEG at 4199, PF at 6200, and SC at 3399, with daily changes of 2.6%, 2.4%, 1.7%, 1.0%, and 2.1% respectively [2] - **Calendar Spread**: PX (9 - 1) was 36 on May 7, with a daily change of 40; PTA(6 - 9) was 74, with a daily change of - 12; MEG (9 - 1) was - 22, with a daily change of - 5; PF(7 - 8) was 16, with a daily change of - 14; PX - EB09 was - 506, with a daily change of 54 [2] - **Inter - commodity Spread**: PTA09 - 0.65PX09 was 379 on May 7, with a daily change of 1; PTA09 - MEG09 was 267, with a daily change of 35; PTA09 - PF09 was - 1644, with a daily change of - 8; PF07盘面加工费 was 896, with a daily change of 2; PTA09 - LU09 was 1147, with a daily change of 53 [2] - **Basis and Other Spreads**: PX basis was 83 on May 7, with a daily change of 5; PTA basis was 110, with a daily change of - 10; MEG basis was 50, with a daily change of - 3; PF basis was 20, with a daily change of 28; PX - naphtha spread was 206, with a daily change of 12 [2] - **Warehouse Receipts**: PTA warehouse receipts were 98978 on May 7, with a daily change of - 3644; ethylene glycol warehouse receipts were 10189, with a daily change of 5239; short - fiber warehouse receipts were 2587, with a daily change of - 6; PX warehouse receipts were 1311; SC warehouse receipts were 4644000 [2] 3.2 Market Overview - **PX**: On May 7, Asian PX prices rose significantly. The easing of Sino - US trade tensions and a supply disruption at Idemitsu's 210,000 - ton/year PX production line in Tokuyama supported the price. The Platts - assessed average daily price of Asian PX increased by $19.67/ton to $767.67/ton CFR Unv1/China [4] - **PTA**: On May 7, the spot price of PTA rose to 4565 yuan/ton. A 200,000 - ton IPA device in Taiwan, China, was shut down for maintenance, a 300 - million - ton PTA device in East China was restarting, and a 250 - million - ton PTA device in East China started to shut down on May 7 [5] - **MEG**: A 300,000 - ton/year syngas - to - ethylene glycol device in Shanxi plans to shut down for maintenance on May 14 for about a week. On May 6, the MEG shipments from a major warehouse in Zhangjiagang were about 4640 tons, and those from two major warehouses in Taicang were about 2670 tons [6] - **Polyester**: On May 7, the sales of direct - spun polyester staple fiber factories improved, with an average sales - to - production ratio of 127% in Fujian. The sales - to - production ratio of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was highly differentiated, with an average of over 60% [6]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **PX**: Adopt a strategy of going long on PX and short on SC. Short - term rebound is expected, but there is pressure in the medium - term. With low processing fees, overseas device maintenance is increasing, and the Asian PX operating rate has dropped to 68.6%. In May, it will continue to be in the de - stocking phase. In June, new devices are expected to be put into operation, and it is advisable to take long positions in the PX calendar spread when it is low [4]. - **PTA**: Short - term rebound is expected, but there is still pressure in the medium - term. Adopt a strategy of going long on PTA and short on MEG. Terminal demand expectations have improved, polyester sales have improved, and inventory pressure has eased. After factory maintenance, PTA spot supply and demand are tight, and the basis and calendar spread have risen significantly. However, it is not recommended to chase the high basis and calendar spread, and it is advisable to gradually take profits before the holiday [4]. - **MEG**: Adopt a strategy of going long on PTA and short on MEG. Do not chase the high calendar spread. With the exemption of ethane tariffs, domestic supply will be sufficient, and it is difficult to reduce port inventory. Short - term attention should be paid to short positions in the calendar spread when it is high [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Price Changes**: On April 25, 2025, compared with the previous day, PX, PTA, PF, and SC prices increased by 1.0%, 0.7%, 0.3%, and 0.9% respectively, while MEG decreased by 0.5% [1]. - **Calendar Spread Changes**: The daily changes in the calendar spreads of PX (5 - 9), PTA (5 - 9), MEG (5 - 9), PF(5 - 6), and PX - EB05 on April 25, 2025, were 60, 48, 6, 2, and 176 respectively [1]. - **Inter - variety Spread Changes**: The daily changes in the spreads of PTA05 - 0.65PX05, PTA05 - MEG05, PTA05 - PF05, PF05 processing margin, and PTA05 - LU05 on April 25, 2025, were - 3, 91, 58, - 42, and - 5 respectively [1]. - **Basis and Spread Changes**: The daily changes in the basis of PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and the PX - naphtha spread on April 25, 2025, were - 0, 68, - 6, - 28, and 8 respectively [1]. - **Warehouse Receipt Changes**: On April 25, 2025, the PTA warehouse receipts decreased by 10,072 compared with the previous day, and the short - fiber warehouse receipts decreased by 86 [1]. 3.2 Market Overview - **Contract Pre - collection**: The May PX contract pre - collection of a major domestic supplier is 6600 yuan/ton on an acceptance basis, and the PTA contract pre - collection is 4600 yuan/ton on an acceptance basis [3]. - **Device Maintenance**: A 225 - million - ton PTA device in the Northeast has stopped as planned, with an expected maintenance period of about 6 weeks. A 30 - million - ton IPA device in East China has stopped for maintenance, with an expected duration of about 1 month [3]. - **Market Transactions**: On April 27, PTA futures were closed. Driven by polyester sales, the PTA spot negotiation atmosphere was fair. The May basis jumped, and some suppliers stopped offering. MEG futures were also closed, and market negotiation was scarce. The average sales rate of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was about 70%, and the average sales rate of direct - spun polyester staple fiber was 70% [3][4]. 3.3 Market Outlook - **PX**: Overseas device maintenance is increasing, and the Asian PX operating rate has dropped to 68.6%. Domestic devices such as Zhejiang Petrochemical's PX have restarted, and some domestic devices have maintenance plans. In May, it will be in the de - stocking phase, and new devices are expected to be put into operation in June [4]. - **PTA**: Terminal demand expectations have improved, polyester sales have improved, and inventory pressure has eased. Factory maintenance is concentrated, and PTA spot supply and demand are tight. The basis and calendar spread have risen significantly, but it is not recommended to chase the high [4]. - **MEG**: With the exemption of ethane tariffs, domestic device operating rates may rise, and domestic supply will be sufficient. Import volume is high from April to May, and it is difficult to reduce port inventory. Short - term attention should be paid to short positions in the calendar spread when it is high [5].