证券研究报告 2026 年 01 月 20 日 湘财证券研究所 行业研究 食品饮料行业月报 淡季蓄力，复苏将至 ——啤酒行业 2025 年 12 月跟踪 相关研究： | 1. 《沉舟侧畔千帆过，露酒先发 | | --- | | 一缕春》 2026.01.13 | | 2. 《酒旗风动燕京月，U8潮涌正 | | 青春——燕京啤酒首次覆盖报 | | 告》 2025.12.12 | 行业评级：买入（维持） 近十二个月行业表现 % 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 相对收益 -6.4% -9.7% -28.9% 绝对收益 -2.7% -5.3% -5.3% ❑ 啤酒行业整体运行 2025 年 12 月啤酒行业受淡季影响呈现少产去库态势，当月产量较 9 月高 点回落，但其旺季产量与近两年同期持平，全年累计产量有望接近近年高 位，淡季短期产量下滑仅是阶段性调整。进出口方面，整体呈现"进口偏弱、 出口稳增"的差异化格局，考虑到近期人民币汇率强势、进口端高基数效应 减弱、春节错期效应，我们预期 2026 年 1 季度啤酒进口表现有望边际走强。 行业效益端，增加值、营收及利润增速较此前高位有所下行，但未出现持 续深度回落，阶段性 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company, 极物思维有限公司, is preparing for an IPO to become the first publicly listed restaurant and bar brand in China, despite facing liquidity issues and declining same-store sales growth [1][2][11]. Financial Performance - The company reported significant revenue growth, with revenues of 845 million RMB in 2023, projected to increase to 1.074 billion RMB in 2024, marking a growth rate of 27.1% [2]. - For the first nine months of 2025, revenue reached 872 million RMB, but the net profit growth was only 6.8% in 2024, indicating a disparity between revenue and profit growth [5]. - The adjusted net profit decreased from 73.45 million RMB in 2023 to 66.19 million RMB in 2024, highlighting volatility in core profitability [5]. Business Model and Market Position - Established in 2016, the company operates under the "COMMUNE幻师" brand, combining dining and drinking in a unique "all-day operation" model, which has led to a market share of 7.8% in 2024, double that of its closest competitors [3]. - The company has completed three rounds of financing, with the latest round in July 2022 raising approximately 109 million RMB, resulting in a post-money valuation of 7.16 billion RMB [3]. Operational Challenges - The company faces challenges in cost control, with raw material and labor costs rising significantly, outpacing revenue growth [5]. - Same-store sales growth has been under pressure, with a 0.3% decline in the first nine months of 2025, particularly in first-tier cities where growth rates have turned negative [6][8]. Expansion Plans - The company plans to open 30 to 40 new stores in 2026, focusing on first and second-tier cities, despite concerns about the sustainability of growth amid declining sales [9]. - As of the end of September 2025, the company operated 112 stores, with a slowdown in expansion evident as only two new stores were added in the first nine months of 2025 [9]. Liquidity and Dividend Concerns - The company declared a special dividend of 80 million RMB just before the IPO, despite having cash reserves of less than 100 million RMB, raising questions about its liquidity management [12][13]. - As of November 30, 2025, the company's net current liabilities had increased to 175 million RMB, indicating ongoing liquidity challenges [12]. Competitive Landscape - The restaurant and bar market in China is highly fragmented, with the top five brands holding only about 11% market share, suggesting intense competition [13]. - The company aims to utilize IPO proceeds for store expansion, digital infrastructure, product development, and supply chain enhancement [13].