2026 年 2 月 4 日 公司研究 低基数下 25Q4 量价齐升，利润同比减亏 ——重庆啤酒（600132.SH）2025 年业绩快报点评 要点 事件： 25 年实现营业收入 147.2 亿元，同比+0.5%；归母净利润 12.3 亿元，同 比+10.4%；扣非归母净利润 11.9 亿元，同比-2.8%。25 年销量同比+0.68%。 其中，25Q4 实现营业收入 16.6 亿元，同比+5.2%；归母净利润-0.1 亿元，同比 减亏；扣非归母净利润-0.3 亿元，同比减亏。 低基数叠加积极推新和拥抱新渠道下，25Q4 量价齐升。25 年公司销量/吨价分 别同比+0.68%/-0.18%，销量在较弱的市场环境下实现逆势增长（25 年啤酒行 业产量同比-1.1%）。公司通过优化产品结构、加快新品布局、拓展非现饮渠道、 深化"大城市"计划等举措，经营韧性持续提升。 其中 25Q4 公司销量/吨价分别同比+2.84%/+1.96%，量价增速较 25 年前三季 度均改善，一方面由于上年的低基数，另一方面主要得益于公司前期在非现饮渠 道和产品结构优化方面做出的努力。渠道端，公司重点发力非现饮渠道（便利店、 超市等）弥 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Buy" [2] Core Insights - The macroeconomic and consumption environment shows signs of marginal improvement despite ongoing pressure in the consumer market. The restaurant sector continues to outperform overall retail sales, indicating structural growth opportunities for the beer industry [4][14] - The beer industry is experiencing a seasonal production decline due to the off-peak season, but overall production levels remain stable compared to previous years. The industry is expected to recover, with a focus on high-end and super high-end beer segments [5][36] - Cost pressures in the beer industry are manageable, with stable raw material costs and a neutral overall cost environment. Price stability in the terminal market supports profitability [6][50] Summary by Sections 1. Macroeconomic and Consumption Environment - In December 2025, the retail sales growth rate fell to 0.9% year-on-year, while the restaurant sector showed a 2.2% increase, indicating resilience in selected consumption categories. CPI rose to 0.8%, and PPI showed a narrowing decline at -1.9% [4][14] - Consumer confidence and income indicators are gradually improving, which is expected to enhance consumption potential in 2026 [15][16] 2. Overall Operation of the Beer Industry - December 2025 saw a seasonal decline in beer production, with a total production of 331.81 million hectoliters by the end of November. The industry is expected to maintain production levels close to historical highs despite short-term fluctuations [5][33] - The import and export dynamics show a weak import performance but stable export growth, with expectations for marginal improvement in imports in early 2026 [34][35] 3. Prices and Costs - Raw material costs remain stable, with domestic barley prices at 2205 CNY/ton and imported barley prices at 255 USD/ton. Packaging material costs are in a neutral state due to price fluctuations [6][49] - The terminal prices for canned and bottled beer have shown minimal fluctuations, maintaining a stable pricing structure [50][51] 4. Tracking of Listed Companies - The stock prices of key beer companies in the A-share and Hong Kong markets have shown slight declines, with most companies experiencing negative growth. Market sentiment appears cautious [58][61] 5. Investment Recommendations - Despite ongoing declines in retail sales data, the beer sector is positioned for potential valuation recovery due to low historical valuation levels. The expected improvement in consumer confidence and manageable cost pressures supports a positive outlook for the beer industry in 2026 [9][67]

此外，值得关注的是，华润啤酒白酒业务方面，于2025年上半年营业额7.81亿元，大单品"摘要"贡献白 酒业务营业额接近八成。 北京商报讯（记者 刘一博 冯若男）8月19日，华润啤酒公告称，截至2025年6月30日止六个月，未经审 核综合营业额为239.42亿元，同比增长0.8%；未经审核之未计利息及税项前盈利及股东应占溢利分别为 76.91亿元及57.89亿元，分别同比增长20.8%和23.0%。其中，啤酒业务的未经审计之未计利息及税项前 盈利及股东应占溢利分别同比增长13.8%和17.3%。董事会宣派付中期股息每股0.464元，较去年同期增 长24.4%。 公告显示，啤酒业务方面，集团于2025年上半年实现啤酒销量约6487.000万千升，同比上升2.2%。其 中，高端啤酒产品持续发力，2025年上半年普高档及以上啤酒销量同比增长超过10%。 ...