评 论 及 策 略 全国生猪市场呈现整体弱势格局。具体来看，北方市场猪价在周末先稳后弱，由于养殖端出 栏量部分增加，而二次育肥需求减少，屠宰企业采购难以同步增量，导致短期供需失衡加 剧，价格降幅显著扩大至0.2-0.4元/公斤。南方市场则表现分化，多数地区在偏弱调整后趋 稳，主要受制于年后消费淡季，屠宰量提升困难。市场供应相对充裕，供需匹配不佳持续压 制价格。短期看，南北市场供应压力仍然存在，若缺乏有力支撑，价格仍有下调可能。后续 行情的关键驱动，需重点关注二次育肥补栏意愿及屠宰企业的入库动态。 免 责 声 明 本公司具有中国证监会核准的期货交易咨询业务资格 （核准文号 证监许可[2011]1284号） 研究局限性和风险提示 报告中依据和结论存在范围局限性，对未来预测存在不及预期，以及宏观环境和产业链影响因素存在不确定性变化等风险。 分析师声明 作者具有期货交易咨询执业资格，保证报告所采用的数据均来自合规渠道，分析逻辑基于作者的职业理解，本报告清晰准确地 反映了作者的研究观点，力求独立、客观和公正，结论不受任何第三方的授意或影响，作者及利益相关方不曾因也将不会因本 报告中的具体推荐意见或观点而直接或间接获取任 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoint - The market will return to the basic pattern of "strong supply and weak demand" after the Spring Festival. The pig - price upward space is fundamentally restricted, but there won't be a panic - driven sharp decline due to the strong expectation of pig - price recovery in the second half of 2026. Short - term pig prices are expected to fluctuate at the bottom, with low possibilities of a significant upward or downward trend. However, be vigilant that the strong bullish sentiment may bring forward the upward trend to April or May, thus over - consuming the subsequent real market [2]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalog 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices**: The previous day's closing prices for different contract months (March, January, May, July, September, November) were 13140, 10740, 11500, 12220, 13140, 13065 respectively, with price drops of - 140, - 155, - 40, - 10, - 40, - 95 and corresponding percentage drops of - 1.05%, - 1.42%, - 0.35%, - 0.08%, - 0.30%, - 0.72% compared to the prices two days ago [2]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes were 776, 14122, 38318, 5391, 3861, 1809 respectively, and the open interests were 2673, 30077, 136660, 49418, 37022, 23553 respectively. The open - interest changes were - 22, - 5078, - 4468, - 351, - 443, - 365 respectively [2]. - **Spreads**: The current spreads for 1 - 3 months, 3 - 5 months, 5 - 7 months, 7 - 9 months, 9 - 11 months, 11 - 1 months were 2400, - 760, - 720, - 920, 75, - 75 respectively, compared to the previous values of 2385, - 645, - 690, - 950, 20, - 120 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Prices**: The current spot prices in different regions (Henan, Sichuan, Hunan, Guangdong, Guangxi, Liaoning) were 12.49, 11.3, 11.29, 11.67, 11.74, 11.5 yuan/ton respectively, with price changes of 0.06, 0.31, - 22.1, 0.2, 0.2, 0 compared to the previous values [2]. 3.3 Warehouse Receipts - The number of warehouse receipts was 1027, with no change [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Views - The futures and spot markets of the pig industry show a divergent trend. The main futures contract LH2605 closed slightly up 0.30% to 11,555 yuan/ton, and market sentiment rebounded slightly. However, the spot market remained weak, with the national average price falling to 11.44 yuan/kg. The core contradiction lies in the oversupply situation. [2] - The daily output of large-scale farms increased to 351,400 heads, while the sales of slaughtered pork were sluggish, and demand was weak. The self-breeding and self-raising model in the industry has fallen into losses. It is expected that there is no strong basis for a short-term rebound in pig prices, and the market tomorrow may show a narrow-range fluctuation and a generally stable trend. [4] Group 3: Summary Based on the Directory Futures Market - **Price and Change**: The previous day's closing prices of contracts in January, March, May, July, September, and November were 13,285, 10,845, 11,555, 12,260, 13,210, and 13,150 respectively, with price increases of 80, 100, 85, 100, 95, and 120, and increases of 0.61%, 0.93%, 0.74%, 0.82%, 0.72%, and 0.92% respectively. [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes were 406, 22,688, 52,452, 7,703, 5,579, and 2,487 respectively, and the open interests were 2,662, 46,259, 147,570, 50,197, 37,733, and 24,032 respectively. The changes in open interests were +174, -5,721, -1,979, +172, -275, and -15 respectively. [2] - **Price Spreads**: The current price spreads between January - March, March - May, May - July, July - September, September - November, and November - January were 2,440, -710, -705, -950, 60, and -135 respectively, compared with previous values of 2,460, -725, -690, -955, 85, and -175 respectively. [2] Spot Market - **Price and Change**: The current spot prices in Henan, Sichuan, Hunan, Guangdong, Guangxi, and Liaoning were 11.94, 10.8, 11.21, 11.47, 11.47, and 11.6 yuan/ton respectively, with price changes of 0.12, -21.6, -0.24, 0, 0, and -0.09 respectively. [2] Warehouse Receipts - The number of warehouse receipts was 727 on the previous day, with no change from two days ago. [2]

Core Viewpoint - The report provides an overview of the capital flow in various futures markets as of December 8, highlighting significant inflows and outflows across different commodities, indicating market trends and investor sentiment [1]. Group 1: Capital Flow Summary - Copper (CU) saw the highest capital inflow of 3.02 billion yuan, indicating strong investor interest [1]. - Styrene (EB) and Zinc (ZN) followed with inflows of 0.87 billion yuan and 0.71 billion yuan, respectively, suggesting positive market sentiment for these commodities [1]. - On the other hand, commodities like palm oil (P), tin (SN), and urea (UR) experienced significant outflows, with capital reductions of 1.06 billion yuan, 1.16 billion yuan, and 0.95 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting bearish sentiment [1]. Group 2: Price and Basis Rate Analysis - The report includes detailed pricing data for various commodities, such as iron ore (I) priced at 787 yuan per ton with a basis rate of 3.48% [5]. - The futures price for rebar (RB) is noted at 3280 yuan per ton, with a basis rate of 5.93%, indicating a positive outlook for this sector [5]. - The report also highlights the price movements of other commodities, such as aluminum (AL) and nickel (NI), with respective prices of 21920 yuan per ton and 122690 yuan per ton, showing slight declines in their basis rates [5].

Group 1: Stock Index Futures Sector - Key Products: CSI 500 Futures (IC), CSI 1000 Futures (IM) - Bullish Outlook: Clear bullish sentiment supported by trading volume and open interest structure, but caution is advised for potential high-level pullbacks [1][2] Group 2: Government Bond Futures Sector - Key Products: 2-year, 5-year, 10-year, and 30-year government bond futures (TS, TF, T, TL) - Market Sentiment: Overall consolidation with a slight bearish bias [3][4] Group 3: Precious Metals Sector - Key Products: Gold (AU), Silver (AG) - Market Sentiment: Bearish consolidation; IC and IM show "Good Curve Long" structure with annualized rolling returns of 7.5% and 10.98%, significantly higher than SSE 50 and CSI 300 [5][6] - Trading Strategy: Hold long positions or add on dips, focusing on long-dated contracts of IC and IM; cross-product arbitrage suggested [5][6] Group 4: Non-Ferrous Metals Sector - Key Products: Copper (CU), Aluminum (AL), Zinc (ZN) - Market Sentiment: Significant differentiation; Aluminum shows the strongest fundamentals with tight supply-demand dynamics [9][10] - Trading Strategy: Long Aluminum and short Copper to capitalize on supply-demand gaps; light long positions in Zinc [9][10] Group 5: Black Metals Sector - Key Products: Iron Ore (I), Rebar (RB), Coking Coal (J) - Market Sentiment: Bearish outlook with negative returns for rebar and coking coal, indicating ongoing inventory pressure [13][14] Group 6: Energy and Chemical Sector - Key Products: Crude Oil (SC), Low Sulfur Fuel Oil (LU), Asphalt (BU), Rubber (RU) - Market Sentiment: Significant differentiation; Crude Oil and Low Sulfur Fuel Oil benefit from geopolitical factors and shipping demand [15][18] - Trading Strategy: Long SC/LU and short RU to exploit energy versus chemical dynamics [15][18] Group 7: Agricultural Products Sector - Key Products: Soybean Meal (M), Soybean Oil (Y), Palm Oil (P), Live Hogs (LH) - Market Sentiment: Overall bullish; soybean oil and palm oil benefit from biodiesel demand and weather disturbances in South America [21][22] - Trading Strategy: Long soybean oil/palm oil and short soybean meal to capitalize on oil-meal ratios; short live hogs due to oversupply [21][22] Group 8: Soft Commodities and Specialty Products - Key Products: Sugar (SR), Cotton (CF), Urea (UR), Industrial Silicon (SI) - Market Sentiment: Mixed; Urea supported by agricultural demand while Industrial Silicon faces supply pressure [27][28] - Trading Strategy: Long Urea and short Industrial Silicon to leverage agricultural demand against industrial supply [27][28] Group 9: Summary of Trading Strategies and Risk Control Recommendations - Long positions recommended in IC, IM, Urea, Aluminum, and oilseeds; short positions in Copper, Rebar, Rubber, Live Hogs, and Industrial Silicon [30]