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申万期货品种策略日报:生猪(LH)-20260401
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The national live pig market shows a stable and narrow - adjustment pattern. The national average price remains at 9.42 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day. There are obvious regional price differences, with high prices in Guangdong remaining stable and low prices in Guizhou rebounding slightly. The slaughter end reports that the supply of live pigs in the market is generally sufficient, and enterprise procurement is smooth. Most areas' slaughter volume only shows a narrow - range change. It is expected that the pig price will continue to be mainly in a state of waiting or narrow - range adjustment in the short term. The piglet market is the focus today, with prices generally falling to 180 - 220 yuan/head, but the transactions are light, and the enthusiasm of the breeding end for replenishment is generally weak. Overall, the market supply is sufficient while the demand is flat, and the short - term market lacks the impetus for significant fluctuations [2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices**: The previous day's closing prices for January, March, May, July, September, and November contracts were 12915, 12565, 9770, 10730, 11810, and 12180 respectively. Compared with two days ago, the price changes were - 250, - 380, - 235, - 335, - 465, and - 465, with corresponding percentage changes of - 1.90%, - 2.94%, - 2.35%, - 3.03%, - 3.79%, and - 3.68% [2] - **Trading Volume**: The trading volumes for January, March, May, July, September, and November contracts were 12424, 3247, 188706, 73300, 66455, and 20257 respectively [2] - **Open Interest**: The open interests for January, March, May, July, September, and November contracts were 31875, 5436, 187160, 97774, 92625, and 49997 respectively, with changes of 2605, 1120, - 2159, 6755, 8910, and 1714 [2] - **Spreads**: The current spreads of January - March, March - May, May - July, July - September, September - November, and November - January are 350, 2795, - 960, - 1080, - 370, and - 735 respectively, compared with previous values of 220, 2940, - 1060, - 1210, - 370, and - 520 [2] Spot Market - **Prices**: The current spot prices in Henan, Sichuan, Hunan, Guangdong, Guangxi, and Liaoning are 9.53, 9.31, 9.32, 10.05, 9.32, and 9.31 yuan/ton respectively. Compared with the previous values, the price changes are - 0.01, - 18.57, 0, 0, - 0.02, and - 0.03 [2] Warehouse Receipts - The number of warehouse receipts the day before was 0, with a decrease of 441 compared with two days ago [2]
申万期货品种策略日报:生猪(LH)-20260331
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The overall national hog market remains stable. The average ex-farm price of outer three-yuan hogs is 9.44 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day. The market is characterized by a pattern of "reduced supply and weak demand". The supply of hogs at the end of the month decreased by 5.21% month-on-month, and the entry of secondary fattening provided support for local prices. However, the slaughter volume of downstream slaughtering enterprises only increased slightly by 0.69%, and the terminal consumption capacity was insufficient. The loss of the breeding end has narrowed slightly, but the average loss per head of self-breeding and self-raising still exceeds 330 yuan. The current market is intertwined with positive (end-of-month supply reduction, secondary fattening) and negative (weak demand) factors, and the fundamental situation of oversupply remains unchanged. It is expected that hog prices will continue to maintain a weak and volatile trend in the short term [3] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Price and Change**: The previous day's closing prices of hog futures contracts in January, March, May, July, September, and November were 13,165, 12,945, 10,005, 11,065, 12,275, and 12,645 respectively. Compared with the prices two days ago, they changed by -260, -250, +40, -115, -245, and -260, with corresponding percentage changes of -1.94%, -1.89%, 0.40%, -1.03%, -1.96%, and -2.01% [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes of the above contracts were 10,843, 2,633, 131,149, 39,091, 30,050, and 10,972 respectively. The open interests were 29,270, 4,316, 189,319, 91,019, 83,715, and 48,283 respectively, with changes of +1,706, +835, -13,267, +2,618, +3,043, and +652 [2] - **Price Spreads**: The current spreads between January - March, March - May, May - July, July - September, September - November, and November - January were 220, 2,940, -1,060, -1,210, -370, and -520 respectively, compared with the previous values of 230, 3,230, -1,215, -1,340, -385, and -520 [2] Spot Market - **Spot Prices**: The current spot prices of hogs in Henan, Sichuan, Hunan, Guangdong, Guangxi, and Liaoning were 9.54, 9.26, 9.32, 10.05, 9.34, and 9.34 yuan/ton respectively. Compared with the previous values, they changed by +0.08, -18.62, 0, 0, +0.23, and +0.23 [2] Warehouse Receipts - The number of warehouse receipts the previous day was 441, a decrease of 42 compared with two days ago [2]
申万期货品种策略日报-生猪(LH)-20260330
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The national average price of live pigs is reported at 9.37 yuan per kilogram, continuing a slight downward trend, and the industry remains in deep - seated losses. The core contradiction in the current market lies in abundant supply and weak demand. In the short term, without obvious positive support for demand, pig prices are expected to continue to maintain a narrow bottom - grinding pattern, and market sentiment is cautious [3] 3. Summary According to the Catalog Futures Market - **Price and Change**: The previous day's closing prices for January, March, May, July, September, and November contracts were 13425, 13195, 9965, 11180, 12520, and 12905 respectively. The price changes were - 160, 3290, 130, - 70, - 20, and - 50, with corresponding percentage changes of - 1.18%, 33.22%, 1.32%, - 0.62%, - 0.16%, and - 0.39% [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes were 7603, 4894, 209062, 63757, 29355, and 10753 respectively. The open interests were 27564, 3481, 202586, 88401, 80672, and 47631 respectively, with changes of 1410, 3481, - 16816, 4219, 3524, and 1693 [2] - **Price Spreads**: The current price spreads for 1 - 3 months, 3 - 5 months, 5 - 7 months, 7 - 9 months, 9 - 11 months, and 11 - 1 months are 230, 3230, - 1215, - 1340, - 385, and - 520 respectively, compared to previous values of 3680, 70, - 1415, - 1290, - 415, and - 630 [2] Spot Market - **Spot Prices**: The current spot prices in Henan, Sichuan, Hunan, Guangdong, Guangxi, and Liaoning are 9.46, 9.36, 9.32, 10.05, 9.11, and 9.11 yuan per ton respectively, with price changes of - 0.12, - 18.8, 0, 0, 0, and 0 [2] Warehouse Receipts - The number of warehouse receipts the day before was 483, a decrease of 526 compared to two days ago [2]
申万期货品种策略日报-生猪(LH)-20260327
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content 2. Core View of the Report - The pig market continues to be weak, with the national average price falling. The supply - side pressure is significant, and downstream consumption lacks the ability to support price increases. The focus of the industry is still on the pace of capacity reduction. Although pig prices are low, the discount for culling sows is still high, and large - scale capacity reduction has not started. Short - term supply is expected to remain abundant, and pig prices may continue to face pressure. The market should closely monitor the subsequent capital pressure and culling sentiment of the breeding sector [4] 3. Summary of Related Catalogs Futures Market - The previous day's closing prices of futures contracts in January, March, May, July, September, and November were 13585, 9905, 9835, 11250, 12540, and 12955 respectively. Compared with the prices two days ago, the changes were - 60, 905, - 145, - 60, - 55, and - 55, with corresponding percentage changes of - 0.44%, 10.06%, - 1.45%, - 0.53%, - 0.44%, and - 0.42%. The trading volumes were 4552, 10, 176012, 44700, 27626, and 7643 respectively, and the open interests were 26154, 0, 219402, 84182, 77148, and 45938 respectively, with changes of 779, - 23, 5615, 2417, 2943, and 866 respectively. The current spreads between different contracts (January - March, March - May, May - July, July - September, September - November, November - January) were 3680, 70, - 1415, - 1290, - 415, - 630 respectively, compared with the previous values of 4645, - 980, - 1330, - 1285, - 415, - 635 [2] Spot Market - The current spot prices in Henan, Sichuan, Hunan, Guangdong, Guangxi, and Liaoning were 9.58, 9.44, 9.32, 10.05, 9.11, and 9.11 yuan/ton respectively. Compared with the previous values, the changes were - 0.13, - 18.95, - 0.01, 0.04, - 0.17, - 0.14 [2] Warehouse Receipts - The number of warehouse receipts on the previous day and two days ago was 1009, with a change of 0 [2]
申万期货品种策略日报-生猪(LH)-20260326
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The hog market continues to be weak, with an average ex - factory price of 9.5 yuan/kg for live hogs of the outer three - yuan variety across the country, down 0.09 yuan/kg from the previous day. The market has an obvious oversupply situation, with general enthusiasm for second - fattening and frozen product warehousing, limited demand growth, and a pessimistic sentiment. The price is mainly oscillating at the bottom, lacking short - term rebound momentum. The overall market remains in a downturn [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices**: The previous day's closing prices for January, March, May, July, September, and November contracts were 13645, 9000, 9980, 11310, 12595, and 13010 respectively. Compared with the prices two days ago, the price changes were 0, 0, - 65, 60, 110, and 105, with percentage changes of 0.00%, 0.00%, - 0.65%, 0.53%, 0.88%, and 0.81% respectively [2]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes were 7364, 0, 133743, 41805, 26821, and 10619 respectively, and the open interests were 25375, 23, 213787, 81765, 74205, and 45072 respectively. The changes in open interest were 1805, - 1, 1529, 3983, 2769, and 1885 respectively [2]. - **Spreads**: The current spreads for 1 - 3 months, 3 - 5 months, 5 - 7 months, 7 - 9 months, 9 - 11 months, and 11 - 1 month were 4645, - 980, - 1330, - 1285, - 415, and - 635 respectively, compared with the previous values of 4645, - 1045, - 1205, - 1235, - 420, and - 740 [2]. Spot Market - **Prices**: The current spot prices in Henan, Sichuan, Hunan, Guangdong, Guangxi, and Liaoning were 9.71, 9.51, 9.33, 10.01, 9.28, and 9.25 yuan/ton respectively, with price changes of - 0.07, - 19.18, - 0.1, - 0.01, - 0.09, and - 0.08 compared with the previous day [2]. Warehouse Receipts - The number of warehouse receipts the previous day was 1009, a decrease of 23 compared with two days ago [2]. Market Data - The price of standard hogs was 9.50 yuan/kg, and the price of fat hogs was 10.13 yuan/kg, with a price difference of 0.63 yuan/kg. The daily出栏量 of key breeding enterprises was 298878 heads, a slight increase of 0.31%. The average出栏 weight was 123.56 kg, a slight increase. The total slaughter volume of slaughtering enterprises was 136340 heads, a slight increase of 0.081%. The self - breeding and self - raising daily loss was 333.37 yuan/head, and the loss of purchasing piglets was 224.8 yuan/head [3].
申万期货品种策略日报-生猪(LH)-20260325
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The recent live hog market shows a weak and volatile pattern. The average price of ternary live hogs nationwide has slightly declined to 9.59 yuan/kg, with obvious regional price differences. The supply pressure has slightly eased but remains sufficient. The industry is still in a deep - loss stage due to the oversupply situation [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The previous day's closing prices of live hog futures for January, March, May, July, September, and November are 13645, 9000, 10045, 11250, 12485, and 12905 respectively. The price changes are 50, - 300, 65, 220, 185, and 180, with corresponding price change rates of 0.37%, - 3.23%, 0.65%, 1.99%, 1.50%, and 1.41% [2]. - The trading volumes are 4142, 1, 157586, 41268, 21721, and 6722 respectively. The open interests are 23570, 24, 212258, 77782, 71436, and 43187 respectively, and the changes in open interests are 1245, - 3, 5002, 1697, 1427, and 1415 respectively [2]. - The current spreads of January - March, March - May, May - July, July - September, September - November, and November - January are 4645, - 1045, - 1205, - 1235, - 420, and - 740 respectively, compared with the previous values of 4295, - 680, - 1050, - 1270, - 425, and - 870 [2]. Spot Market - The current spot prices in Henan, Sichuan, Hunan, Guangdong, Guangxi, and Liaoning are 9.78, 9.67, 9.43, 10.02, 9.37, and 9.33 yuan/ton respectively, with price changes of - 0.1, - 19.43, - 0.09, - 0.01, - 0.02, and - 0.15 [2]. Warehouse Receipts - The number of warehouse receipts the previous day is 1032, a decrease of 19 compared with the day before [2].
申万期货品种策略日报-生猪(LH)-20260319
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The national average ex-farm price of ternary live pigs is 10.05 yuan/kg, slightly down 0.01 yuan/kg from the previous day, and the overall price continues to operate at a low level. The market shows signs of bottoming out. As the price drops, secondary fattening and frozen product warehousing increase slightly, and the price stops falling and stabilizes. However, terminal consumption remains weak, and there is no obvious positive support in the short term. It is expected that the pig price will mainly fluctuate at the bottom. The industry is under great pressure as both self - breeding and self - fattening and purchasing piglets for fattening are in deep losses. Overall, the market has both long and short factors, and it may maintain a weak consolidation in the short term [2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Price and Change**: The previous day's closing prices of futures contracts for January, March, May, July, September, and November are 13,810, 10,180, 10,695, 12,115, 13,085, and 13,295 respectively. Compared with the prices two days ago, the price changes are - 30, 0, - 115, - 25, 25, and - 25, with corresponding percentage changes of - 0.22%, 0.00%, - 1.06%, - 0.21%, 0.19%, and - 0.19% [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes are 4,996, 7, 131,400, 20,734, 14,714, and 4,507 respectively. The open interests are 20,179, 101, 202,398, 66,232, 62,323, and 40,594 respectively. The changes in open interest are 571, - 10, - 364, 3,491, 1,139, and 715 respectively [2] - **Spread**: The current spreads of January - March, March - May, May - July, July - September, September - November, and November - January are 3,630, - 515, - 1,420, - 970, - 210, and - 515 respectively, compared with the previous spreads of 3,660, - 630, - 1,330, - 920, - 260, and - 520 [2] Spot Market - **Price and Change**: The current spot prices in Henan, Sichuan, Hunan, Guangdong, Guangxi, and Liaoning are 10.14, 10.07, 10.17, 10.71, 9.99, and 9.86 yuan/ton respectively. Compared with the previous prices, the changes are - 0.09, - 20.14, 0, 0, - 0.09, and 0 [2] Warehouse Receipts - The number of warehouse receipts is 1,132, with no change from the previous two days [2]
申万期货品种策略日报-生猪(LH)-20260317
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The national live pig market shows a weak and stable trend The national average price is 10.10 yuan/kg, slightly up 0.01 yuan/kg from the previous day, with limited overall fluctuations The price has dropped by about 30% compared with the same period last year, and the industry is still in the low - running range Market sentiment is cautious, with most areas expected to remain stable and some may continue narrow - range adjustments [2][4] Summary by Relevant Content Areas Futures Market - **Price Changes**: The 1 - month contract price rose 20 to 13840, with a 0.14% increase; the 3 - month contract remained unchanged at 10180; the 5 - month contract fell 340 to 10810, a 3.05% drop; the 7 - month contract fell 205 to 12140, a 1.66% decline; the 9 - month contract fell 105 to 13060, a 0.80% decrease; the 11 - month contract fell 50 to 13320, a 0.37% decline [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes of 1 - month, 3 - month, 5 - month, 7 - month, 9 - month, and 11 - month contracts are 3078, 0, 141410, 19614, 15270, and 4275 respectively The open interests are 19608, 111, 202762, 62741, 61184, and 39879 respectively, with changes of 1031, - 4, 11656, 1180, 2430, and 385 respectively [2] - **Spreads**: The current spreads of 1 - month - 3 - month, 3 - month - 5 - month, 5 - month - 7 - month, 7 - month - 9 - month, 9 - month - 11 - month, and 11 - month - 1 - month are 3660, - 630, - 1330, - 920, - 260, and - 520 respectively, compared with previous values of 3640, - 970, - 1195, - 820, - 205, and - 450 [2] Spot Market - **Price Changes**: In different provinces, the current spot prices of live pigs are 10.23 yuan/kg in Henan, 10.07 yuan/kg in Sichuan, 10.17 yuan/kg in Hunan, 10.71 yuan/kg in Guangdong, 10.08 yuan/kg in Guangxi, and 9.86 yuan/kg in Liaoning, with price changes of 0.06, - 20.18, 0, 0, - 0.04, and 0.15 respectively compared with the previous day [2] Warehouse Receipts - The number of warehouse receipts is 1132, a decrease of 1 from the day before the previous day [2]
申万期货品种策略日报-生猪(LH)-20260316
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The pig market shows regional differentiation. The northern market has narrow price fluctuations over the weekend, with stable terminal consumption, sporadic restocking for secondary fattening, and a slight reduction in local slaughter, supporting a slightly stronger price. However, the overall supply and demand are matched, lacking the impetus for continuous growth. It is expected that the short - term slaughter volume may increase, and the market may fluctuate weakly. The southern market has a stalemate between supply and demand, with stable mainstream prices and possible daily fluctuations in some areas affected by the supply rhythm. Currently, the supply is still abundant, and the short - term market is also expected to operate weakly. Overall, the market lacks significant positive factors, and short - term prices are likely to be under pressure [2][4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Futures Market - **Price and Change**: The previous day's closing prices for January, March, May, July, September, and November contracts are 13820, 10180, 11150, 12345, 13165, and 13370 respectively. The price changes are 30, 0, 20, 55, 40, and 50, with corresponding percentage changes of 0.22%, 0.00%, 0.18%, 0.45%, 0.30%, and 0.38% [2] - **Volume and Position**: The trading volumes are 2523, 2, 66348, 10662, 10206, and 3781 respectively. The positions are 18577, 115, 191106, 61561, 58754, and 39494 respectively, with position changes of 473, - 14, - 2548, - 301, 909, and 686 [2] - **Spread**: The current spreads of 1 - 3 months, 3 - 5 months, 5 - 7 months, 7 - 9 months, 9 - 11 months, and 11 - 1 months are 3640, - 970, - 1195, - 820, - 205, and - 450 respectively, compared with previous values of 3610, - 950, - 1160, - 835, - 195, and - 470 [2] Spot Market - **Price and Change**: The current spot prices in Henan, Sichuan, Hunan, Guangdong, Guangxi, and Liaoning are 10.17, 10.11, 10.17, 10.71, 10.12, and 9.71 yuan/ton respectively. The price changes are 0.08, - 20.22, 0.1, 0.2, 0.01, and - 0.06 [2] Warehouse Receipts - The number of warehouse receipts is 1133, with no change [2]
申万期货品种策略日报-生猪(LH)-20260311
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The national live pig market continues its weak adjustment. It is expected that the short - term decline in national pig prices will narrow, and the overall trend will be mainly volatile adjustment [2][3] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Price Information**: The previous day's closing prices for January, March, May, July, September, and November contracts were 13790, 10110, 11180, 12285, 13200, and 13350 respectively. Compared with the prices two days ago, they decreased by -20, -40, -20, -15, -10, and -50, with corresponding decline rates of -0.14%, -0.39%, -0.18%, -0.12%, -0.08%, and -0.37% [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes were 1927, 11, 69103, 7814, 10876, and 5296 respectively, and the open interests were 15514, 149, 182346, 60108, 55207, and 37216 respectively. The changes in open interest were 552, -16, 2323, 449, 960, and 850 respectively [2] - **Price Spreads**: The current price spreads of January - March, March - May, May - July, July - September, September - November, and November - January were 3680, -1070, -1105, -915, -150, and -440 respectively, compared with the previous values of 3660, -1050, -1100, -910, -190, and -410 [2] Spot Market - **Spot Prices**: The current spot prices in Henan, Sichuan, Hunan, Guangdong, Guangxi, and Liaoning were 10.31, 10.11, 10.06, 10.3, 10.02, and 9.98 yuan/ton respectively. Compared with the previous values, the changes were -0.06, -20.18, 0.03, 0.02, 0, and -0.06 [2] Warehouse Receipts - The number of warehouse receipts was 1150 for both the previous day and two days ago, with no change [2] Market Analysis - **Supply**: Key breeding enterprises' slaughter volume reached 304,600 heads, a month - on - month increase of 3.69%, and the average slaughter weight was 123.17 kg, remaining at a high level. The slaughter volume of sample slaughterhouses increased slightly by 0.01% [2][3] - **Profit Situation**: Although the breeding losses are still severe, they have slightly narrowed, with a loss of 238.85 yuan per self - breeding and self - raising pig [3] - **Regional Situation**: Currently, the supply in the north is abundant while the demand is weak, and the support from secondary fattening in the south has weakened [3]