Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - In June, the market will enter the stage of accelerated weight - reduction and inventory - clearance. However, in the first week of weight - reduction, the market support was limited, leading to passive stockpiling by some enterprises and an accelerated decline in spot prices. The de - stocking in the summer weak - demand stage may last longer than expected, pressuring the July and September contracts. [3] - Many enterprises have announced a policy to ban the second - fattening. De - stocking in the third quarter is beneficial for the repair of long - term expectations. If the average weight per head decreases by 10KG, the pork supply in the fourth quarter with the same basic inventory will decrease by 6 - 8%. The January contract, a pure peak - season contract before the Spring Festival, has a consumption increment of over 30% compared to the third quarter, and its valuation will be reset. The liquidity of the fourth - quarter contract will increase, and the medium - term expectation is turning stronger. Attention should be paid to stop - profit and stop - loss. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 12,500 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 14,500 yuan/ton. [3] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. [Fundamental Tracking] - **Spot Prices**: The Henan spot price is 13,900 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 100 yuan/ton; the Sichuan spot price is 13,750 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 100 yuan/ton; the Guangdong spot price is 15,140 yuan/ton, with no year - on - year change. [1] - **Futures Prices**: The price of the生猪2507 contract is 13,070 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 20 yuan/ton; the price of the生猪2509 contract is 13,475 yuan/ton, a year - on - year increase of 15 yuan/ton; the price of the生猪2511 contract is 13,300 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 35 yuan/ton. [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the生猪2507 contract is 4,996 lots, a decrease of 831 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 14,721 lots, a decrease of 1,296 lots from the previous day; the trading volume of the生猪2509 contract is 26,496 lots, a decrease of 360 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 78,563 lots, a decrease of 1,258 lots from the previous day; the trading volume of the生猪2511 contract is 4,413 lots, a decrease of 790 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 38,400 lots, an increase of 616 lots from the previous day. [1] - **Basis and Spread**: The basis of the生猪2507 contract is 830 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 80 yuan/ton; the basis of the生猪2509 contract is 425 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 115 yuan/ton; the basis of the生猪2511 contract is 600 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 65 yuan/ton; the 7 - 9 spread of the生猪 contract is - 405 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 35 yuan/ton. [1] 2. [Trend Intensity] - The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish. [2] 3. [Market Logic] - The market will enter the accelerated weight - reduction and inventory - clearance stage in June. The limited market support in the first week of weight - reduction led to passive stockpiling and falling spot prices. The de - stocking in the summer weak - demand stage may last longer than expected, pressuring the July and September contracts. [3] - The third - quarter de - stocking is beneficial for the repair of long - term expectations. A 10KG decrease in average weight per head will lead to a 6 - 8% decrease in fourth - quarter pork supply. The January contract, a peak - season contract before the Spring Festival, has a consumption increment of over 30% compared to the third quarter, and its valuation will be reset. The fourth - quarter contract will see increased liquidity, and the medium - term expectation is turning stronger. [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The current north-south fattening pig price spread is inverted, group piglet sales have decreased, recent fat pig selling pressure initially confirms inventory accumulation, official piglet numbers confirm inventory, expectations have weakened, demand is weak, slaughter volume cannot support selling, price drops exceed expectations, leading to passive inventory accumulation, and the positive spread structure may switch; the January contract is affected by liquidity, although it is actually a peak season contract before the Spring Festival, the increase in positions is limited, causing the far-month spread to deviate from the seasonal reasonable spread at present, waiting for the opportunity of liquidity shift, and continuously deploying the 11 - 1 reverse spread in the medium and long term, paying attention to stop-profit and stop-loss. The short-term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 15,000 yuan/ton [5] 3. Summary Based on Related Catalogs 3.1 Pig Fundamental Data - **Spot Prices**: Henan spot price is 14,450 yuan/ton with a year-on-year decrease of 150 yuan/ton; Sichuan spot price is 14,150 yuan/ton with a year-on-year decrease of 100 yuan/ton; Guangdong spot price is 15,290 yuan/ton with no year-on-year change [3] - **Futures Prices**: The price of the live hog 2507 contract is 13,240 yuan/ton with a year-on-year decrease of 45 yuan/ton; the price of the 2509 contract is 13,580 yuan/ton with a year-on-year decrease of 70 yuan/ton; the price of the 2511 contract is 13,290 yuan/ton with a year-on-year decrease of 45 yuan/ton [3] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: For the live hog 2507 contract, the trading volume is 7,631 lots, an increase of 2,113 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 27,779 lots, an increase of 393 lots from the previous day; for the 2509 contract, the trading volume is 27,992 lots, an increase of 12,220 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 80,663 lots, an increase of 2,101 lots from the previous day; for the 2511 contract, the trading volume is 4,962 lots, an increase of 2,014 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 33,213 lots, an increase of 637 lots from the previous day [3] - **Spreads**: The basis of the live hog 2507 contract is 1,210 yuan/ton with a year-on-year decrease of 105 yuan/ton; the basis of the 2509 contract is 870 yuan/ton with a year-on-year decrease of 80 yuan/ton; the basis of the 2511 contract is 1,160 yuan/ton with a year-on-year decrease of 105 yuan/ton; the 7 - 9 spread is -340 yuan/ton with a year-on-year increase of 25 yuan/ton; the 9 - 11 spread is 290 yuan/ton with a year-on-year decrease of 25 yuan/ton [3] 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is 0, with a range of [-2, 2] for integers, and the strength classification includes weak, relatively weak, neutral, relatively strong, and strong, where -2 represents the most bearish and 2 represents the most bullish [4]