航运日报 | 2025-09-10 MSC、YML以及HPL10月上半月价格公布，10合约估值顶 部继续下修 市场分析 线上报价方面。 Gemini Cooperation：马士基上海-鹿特丹38周价格1050/1760；HPL -SPOT 9月下半月价格935/1535，10月上半月 价格935/1535。马士基远东-北欧地区PSS降为50/100. MSC+Premier Alliance：MSC 9月下半月船期报价1040/1740，10月上半月价格1040/1740；ONE9月下半月船期报 价1544/1943；HMM上海-鹿特丹9月下半月船期报价介于1700-1900美元/FEU; YML9月下半月至10月15日报价 1050/1700。 Ocean Alliance：CMA 上海-鹿特丹9月下半月船期报价1210/2020；EMC 9月份下半月船期价格介于1910-2010； OOCL 9月船期价格介于1650-1700美元/FEU。 地缘端： 一名以色列官员表示，以色列对哈马斯在卡塔尔首都多哈的高级政治领导人发动了袭击，在以色列加大 对加沙地带的攻势之际，以色列对该组织的打击进一步升级。以色列官 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - In June, the market will enter the stage of accelerated weight - reduction and inventory - clearance. However, in the first week of weight - reduction, the market support was limited, leading to passive stockpiling by some enterprises and an accelerated decline in spot prices. The de - stocking in the summer weak - demand stage may last longer than expected, pressuring the July and September contracts. [3] - Many enterprises have announced a policy to ban the second - fattening. De - stocking in the third quarter is beneficial for the repair of long - term expectations. If the average weight per head decreases by 10KG, the pork supply in the fourth quarter with the same basic inventory will decrease by 6 - 8%. The January contract, a pure peak - season contract before the Spring Festival, has a consumption increment of over 30% compared to the third quarter, and its valuation will be reset. The liquidity of the fourth - quarter contract will increase, and the medium - term expectation is turning stronger. Attention should be paid to stop - profit and stop - loss. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 12,500 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 14,500 yuan/ton. [3] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. [Fundamental Tracking] - **Spot Prices**: The Henan spot price is 13,900 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 100 yuan/ton; the Sichuan spot price is 13,750 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 100 yuan/ton; the Guangdong spot price is 15,140 yuan/ton, with no year - on - year change. [1] - **Futures Prices**: The price of the生猪2507 contract is 13,070 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 20 yuan/ton; the price of the生猪2509 contract is 13,475 yuan/ton, a year - on - year increase of 15 yuan/ton; the price of the生猪2511 contract is 13,300 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 35 yuan/ton. [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the生猪2507 contract is 4,996 lots, a decrease of 831 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 14,721 lots, a decrease of 1,296 lots from the previous day; the trading volume of the生猪2509 contract is 26,496 lots, a decrease of 360 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 78,563 lots, a decrease of 1,258 lots from the previous day; the trading volume of the生猪2511 contract is 4,413 lots, a decrease of 790 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 38,400 lots, an increase of 616 lots from the previous day. [1] - **Basis and Spread**: The basis of the生猪2507 contract is 830 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 80 yuan/ton; the basis of the生猪2509 contract is 425 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 115 yuan/ton; the basis of the生猪2511 contract is 600 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 65 yuan/ton; the 7 - 9 spread of the生猪 contract is - 405 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 35 yuan/ton. [1] 2. [Trend Intensity] - The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish. [2] 3. [Market Logic] - The market will enter the accelerated weight - reduction and inventory - clearance stage in June. The limited market support in the first week of weight - reduction led to passive stockpiling and falling spot prices. The de - stocking in the summer weak - demand stage may last longer than expected, pressuring the July and September contracts. [3] - The third - quarter de - stocking is beneficial for the repair of long - term expectations. A 10KG decrease in average weight per head will lead to a 6 - 8% decrease in fourth - quarter pork supply. The January contract, a peak - season contract before the Spring Festival, has a consumption increment of over 30% compared to the third quarter, and its valuation will be reset. The fourth - quarter contract will see increased liquidity, and the medium - term expectation is turning stronger. [3]