Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Contract 12 fluctuates with a bullish bias - Arbitrage: None [7] Core View of the Report - The 12 - month contract trading focuses on the rhythm, with expectations and reality intertwined. Shipping companies will adjust supply to keep freight rates high. The valuation of the 12 - month contract may have a top around 2100 - 2200 points, and its valuation bottom is rising. The February 2026 contract may have a large expectation gap but is currently suppressed by the resumption of navigation expectations [4][5] Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Futures Prices - As of November 5, 2025, the total open interest of all container shipping index European line futures contracts is 75,038 lots, and the single - day trading volume is 54,169 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, EC2610, and EC2512 contracts are 1652.00, 1199.60, 1426.10, 1497.10, 1142.80, and 1946.00 respectively [6] 2. Spot Prices - On October 31, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was 1344 dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) price was 2647 dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) price was 3438 dollars/FEU. On November 3, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 1208.71 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) was 1267.15 points [6] 3. Container Ship Capacity Supply - In November, the average weekly capacity from China to European base ports was 286,000 TEU, and in December, it was 322,900 TEU. In November, there were 10 blank sailings and 1 TBN; in December, there were 6 TBNs. As of October 31, 2025, 218 container ships had been delivered in 2025, with a total capacity of 1.784 million TEU [3][6] 4. Supply Chain - The Suez Canal Authority held a meeting with 20 major shipping companies and agency representatives to discuss the development of the Red Sea situation and invited shipping companies to conduct trial voyages [2] 5. Demand and European Economy - The US will cancel the 10% so - called "fentanyl tariff" on Chinese goods, and the 24% reciprocal tariff will be suspended for another year. The US will also suspend the 301 investigation measures on China's maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding industries for one year. This is conducive to the recovery of Sino - US trade, which will drive the recovery of demand on the US route and support the prices of European routes to some extent [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The valuation ceiling of the October contract continues to be revised downward, and it is recommended to mainly short - allocate the off - season October contract. The current valuation ceiling of the October contract may be around 1200 points [1][6]. - The pattern of off - peak and peak seasons still exists. In the near future, one can bet on the price increase expectation in November for the December contract. As the bottom of the freight rate becomes clearer, one can gradually go long to trade the price increase announcements by shipping companies for November and December [7]. - For the strategy, the main contract is expected to fluctuate weakly, and it is advisable to short the October contract when the opportunity arises [9]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Futures Price - As of September 9, 2025, the total open interest of all container shipping index European line futures contracts is 78,742.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume is 34,654.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2508, EC2510, and EC2512 contracts are 1527.40, 1256.70, 1434.50, 1608.00, 1268.70, and 1682.90 respectively [8]. 2. Spot Price - Online quotes from different alliances and shipping companies are provided. For example, in the Gemini Cooperation, Maersk's Shanghai - Rotterdam price in the 38th week is 1050/1760; HPL - SPOT's price in the second half of September and the first half of October is 935/1535. In the Ocean Alliance, CMA's Shanghai - Rotterdam price for the second - half - September sailing is 1210/2020 [1][2]. - The SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price announced on August 29 is 1315.00 US dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) price is 2189.00 US dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) price is 3073.00 US dollars/FEU. The SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) on September 1 is 1566.46 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) is 980.48 points [8]. 3. Container Ship Capacity Supply - **Static Supply**: As of September 7, 2025, 182 container ships with a total capacity of 1.472 million TEU have been delivered in 2025. From 2025 - 2028, there is still significant supply - side pressure, and the annual delivery volume of ships over 17,000 TEU in 2027, 2028, and 2029 exceeds 35 ships [3]. - **Dynamic Supply**: MSC and the Gemini Alliance announced blank sailings during the Chinese Golden Week. The monthly average capacity in September and October for the China - European base ports is 282,500 TEU and 278,200 TEU respectively. HPL announced two additional ships in October, with a total capacity of about 11,500 TEU [4][5]. 4. Supply Chain - Geopolitical events: An Israeli official said that Israel attacked senior Hamas political leaders in Doha, Qatar, escalating the conflict. Qatar condemned the attack, stating that it violated international law [2]. 5. Demand and European Economy - The US NRF estimates that the container import demand in the US from September - December will decline by about 20% compared to the same period in 2024. During the fourth quarter, Western holidays lead to high shipping volumes, and shipping companies adjust supply to keep freight rates high. However, if US - bound ships are diverted to European routes, it may put pressure on European freight rates [7].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - In June, the market will enter the stage of accelerated weight - reduction and inventory - clearance. However, in the first week of weight - reduction, the market support was limited, leading to passive stockpiling by some enterprises and an accelerated decline in spot prices. The de - stocking in the summer weak - demand stage may last longer than expected, pressuring the July and September contracts. [3] - Many enterprises have announced a policy to ban the second - fattening. De - stocking in the third quarter is beneficial for the repair of long - term expectations. If the average weight per head decreases by 10KG, the pork supply in the fourth quarter with the same basic inventory will decrease by 6 - 8%. The January contract, a pure peak - season contract before the Spring Festival, has a consumption increment of over 30% compared to the third quarter, and its valuation will be reset. The liquidity of the fourth - quarter contract will increase, and the medium - term expectation is turning stronger. Attention should be paid to stop - profit and stop - loss. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 12,500 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 14,500 yuan/ton. [3] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. [Fundamental Tracking] - **Spot Prices**: The Henan spot price is 13,900 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 100 yuan/ton; the Sichuan spot price is 13,750 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 100 yuan/ton; the Guangdong spot price is 15,140 yuan/ton, with no year - on - year change. [1] - **Futures Prices**: The price of the生猪2507 contract is 13,070 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 20 yuan/ton; the price of the生猪2509 contract is 13,475 yuan/ton, a year - on - year increase of 15 yuan/ton; the price of the生猪2511 contract is 13,300 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 35 yuan/ton. [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the生猪2507 contract is 4,996 lots, a decrease of 831 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 14,721 lots, a decrease of 1,296 lots from the previous day; the trading volume of the生猪2509 contract is 26,496 lots, a decrease of 360 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 78,563 lots, a decrease of 1,258 lots from the previous day; the trading volume of the生猪2511 contract is 4,413 lots, a decrease of 790 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 38,400 lots, an increase of 616 lots from the previous day. [1] - **Basis and Spread**: The basis of the生猪2507 contract is 830 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 80 yuan/ton; the basis of the生猪2509 contract is 425 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 115 yuan/ton; the basis of the生猪2511 contract is 600 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 65 yuan/ton; the 7 - 9 spread of the生猪 contract is - 405 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 35 yuan/ton. [1] 2. [Trend Intensity] - The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish. [2] 3. [Market Logic] - The market will enter the accelerated weight - reduction and inventory - clearance stage in June. The limited market support in the first week of weight - reduction led to passive stockpiling and falling spot prices. The de - stocking in the summer weak - demand stage may last longer than expected, pressuring the July and September contracts. [3] - The third - quarter de - stocking is beneficial for the repair of long - term expectations. A 10KG decrease in average weight per head will lead to a 6 - 8% decrease in fourth - quarter pork supply. The January contract, a peak - season contract before the Spring Festival, has a consumption increment of over 30% compared to the third quarter, and its valuation will be reset. The fourth - quarter contract will see increased liquidity, and the medium - term expectation is turning stronger. [3]