Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - The increase in the live hog 2601 contract price is a game between long - term inflection point expectations and short - term fundamentals. It's a pre - pricing of future supply - demand repair rather than a direct reflection of current fundamentals. One should closely monitor the speed of capacity reduction and the pace of consumption recovery, not over - chase the rise, and treat it as a short - term long position [3]. - The A - share market is expected to continue to fluctuate upward at a high level tomorrow [6]. - For gold, due to its large short - term fluctuations, it's advisable to avoid short - term long positions [10]. - For iron ore, the terminal situation has not actually improved after the holiday, iron water may decline periodically. If it breaks below the important support again, a large adjustment may occur. In the long - term, supply is expected to be loose with the commissioning of the Simandou project [14][15]. - For glass, daily melting changes little, inventory has continued to accumulate this week. The follow - up drive mainly lies in policy - side stimulus and anti - involution policies for the supply side. The market is currently in a pessimistic atmosphere [18][19]. - For eggs, the inventory of laying hens is increasing, and egg supply is sufficient, suppressing the price rebound. But considering the current price and cost, there is a short - term long opportunity [21]. - For pulp, the price in Shandong is stable today. China's cumulative pulp imports from January to September were 2706 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.6%. Domestic port inventories remain high, and it is expected to run weakly, to be treated as low - level fluctuations [25]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Hot Focus - Live Hog 2601 Contract - The market shows a "near - weak, far - strong" pattern, and the 2601 contract has become the focus of capital game due to its anti - decline characteristics [3]. - The upward momentum comes from three aspects: capacity reduction expectations (the elimination rate of retail investors has risen to 8% in September), policy support signals (central reserve purchase and storage), and seasonal logic (anticipation of the consumption peak season before the 2026 Spring Festival) [3]. - There are short - term pressures: the current live hog inventory is 440 million, the proportion of large - weight hogs has reached a new high this year, the spot average price is only 10.72 yuan/kg, and the supply - demand pattern of oversupply remains unchanged. The bearish sentiment is dominant in the technical aspect, and the sustainability of the rise is to be tested [3]. Technical Analysis - Stock Index Futures - The three major A - share indexes opened higher and moved higher today, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing with a mid -阳线. The trading volume increased compared with yesterday. It is expected to continue to fluctuate upward at a high level tomorrow [6]. Technical Analysis - Gold - Gold has large short - term fluctuations, and it's advisable to avoid short - term long positions [10]. Technical Analysis - Iron Ore - After the holiday, the terminal situation has not improved, and iron water may decline periodically. If it breaks below the important support again, a large adjustment may occur [14]. - In the short - term, there are long - term agreement negotiations and accident interferences on the supply side. In the long - term, the supply is expected to be loose with the commissioning of the Simandou project [15]. Technical Analysis - Glass - Daily melting changes little, inventory has continued to accumulate this week. The follow - up drive mainly lies in policy - side stimulus and anti - involution policies for the supply side. The market has broken below important support recently, and the pessimistic atmosphere is strong [18][19]. Technical Analysis - Eggs - The inventory of laying hens is increasing, and egg supply is sufficient, suppressing the price rebound. Based on the current price and cost, each laying hen is expected to lose 16.90 yuan in the future, presenting a short - term long opportunity [21]. Technical Analysis - Pulp - The pulp price in Shandong is stable today. China's cumulative pulp imports from January to September were 2706 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.6%. Domestic port inventories remain high, and it is expected to run weakly, to be treated as low - level fluctuations [25].

金信期货日刊 本刊由金信期货研究院撰写 2025/10/21 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD 生猪2601合约上涨：远期预期与短期现实的博弈 ibaotu.com 热点聚焦 生猪2601合约价格上涨，本质是市场对远期供需修复的提前定价，而非当前基本面的直接反映。当前市场 呈现鲜明的"近弱远强"格局，2601合约因抗跌特性成为资金博弈焦点。 上涨动力主要来自三方面： 一是产能去化预期，9月能繁母猪存栏虽处绿色区间，但散户淘汰率已升至8%，市场押注后续供应收缩； 二是政策托市信号，中央储备收储释放稳价意图，吸引抄底资金布局中长期多单； 三是季节性逻辑，资金提前交易2026年春节前的消费旺季预期。 但需警惕短期压力：当前生猪存栏达4.4亿头，大体重生猪占比创年内新高，现货均价仅10.72元/公斤，供 需偏松格局未改。且技术面空头仍占主导，上涨持续性待考。 综上，此次上涨是远期拐点预期与短期基本面的博弈，需紧盯产能去化速度与消费复苏节奏，不宜过度追 高，短多对待。 GOLDTRUST FUTURES 数据来源：交易所官网、公开资料、金信期货 观点仅供参考，市场有风险，入市需谨慎 GOLDTRUST ...