投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 甲醇 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 煤炭期价反弹，甲醇震荡偏强 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 宝城期货甲醇早报-2025-09-05 品种晨会纪要 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 甲醇（MA） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏强运行 核心逻辑：目前国内外甲醇供应压力依然偏大，下游需求处在淡季阶段，供需结构偏弱导致价格重 心面临下移。本周四夜盘国内煤炭期货价格小幅上涨，导致甲醇期货 2601 合约呈现震荡偏强的走势， 期价小幅收涨 1.18 ...

Report Title - "Bottom Range, Oscillating with an Upward Bias - Guoxin Futures Non - Ferrous (Nickel) Weekly Report" dated May 18, 2025 [2][3] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoint - After the Sino - US Geneva economic and trade talks, the two sides reached a series of important consensuses on tariff adjustments, and China's exports in April showed strong resilience. The Shanghai nickel market showed an oscillating trend this week. The spot trading of refined nickel was stable, the changes in premiums and discounts were small, the mine - end market changed little, the quotes of mines were firm, the price of nickel sulfate was weak, and the salt plants were in a loss state. After the holiday, stainless steel inventory increased, and the demand was mainly for rigid procurement. The demand has resilience, but whether it will improve in the medium and long term remains to be verified by further data. It is expected that the operating range of the main contract of Shanghai nickel is approximately 115,000 to 134,000 yuan/ton, and that of the main contract of stainless steel is approximately 12,700 to 13,500 yuan/ton [36] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - This part shows the historical price trend chart of the main contract of nickel futures from December 31, 2020, to April 30, 2025, with the price range from 0 to 300,000 yuan/ton [8] 2. Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Upstream - China's Nickel Ore Port Inventory - Displays the monthly import volume of nickel ore sand and concentrates from the Philippines, with the data range from 0 to 6 million tons [13] 2.2 Mid - stream - Electrolytic Nickel Price - Presents the price trend chart of electrolytic nickel (1, Ni99.90, domestic and imported) from 0 to 300,000 yuan/ton [16] 2.3 Mid - stream - Nickel Sulfate Price - Shows the average price trend chart of nickel sulfate in China, with the price range from 0 to 70,000 yuan/ton [18] 2.4 Mid - stream - Monthly Import Volume of Ferronickel and Fubao Price of 8 - 12% Ferronickel - Displays the monthly import volume of ferronickel in China from 0 to 1 million tons and the Fubao price of 8 - 12% ferronickel from 0 to 1,800 yuan/nickel [20] 2.5 Downstream - Stainless Steel - **Price**: Displays the closing price trend chart of stainless steel futures (continuous), with the price range from 0 to 25,000 yuan/ton [22] - **Position**: Shows the position volume trend chart of stainless steel futures, with the position volume range from 0 to 400,000 lots [24] - **Inventory**: Displays the inventory trend chart of Wuxi stainless steel and Wuxi 300 - series stainless steel, with the inventory range from 0 to 800,000 tons [26] 2.6 Downstream - Production of Power and Energy Storage Batteries - Shows the monthly production value trend chart of power and energy storage batteries (ternary materials) and the total monthly production value trend chart of power and energy storage batteries in China, with the production value range from 0 to 140,000 MWh [29] 2.7 Downstream - Production of New Energy Vehicles - Displays the monthly production value trend chart of new energy vehicles in China, with the production value range from 0 to 140,000 vehicles [31] 3. Outlook for the Future - After the Sino - US Geneva economic and trade talks, tariff adjustments were made. China's exports in April showed strong resilience. The Shanghai nickel market oscillated this week. The spot trading of refined nickel was stable, the mine - end market changed little, the price of nickel sulfate was weak, and stainless steel inventory increased after the holiday. It is expected that the operating range of the main contract of Shanghai nickel is approximately 115,000 to 134,000 yuan/ton, and that of the main contract of stainless steel is approximately 12,700 to 13,500 yuan/ton [36]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On May 15, the alumina futures market showed strong performance, with significant gains in the main contract. The short - term futures price may remain strong, expected to continue box - type fluctuations. A - shares fell across the board after continuous upward oscillations. Gold continued to weaken but the long - term trend is still bullish. Iron ore has high - valuation risks but short - term is in a bullish oscillation. The glass market continues to oscillate. PTA shows signs of peaking in the short - term [3][4][6][11][14][17][21] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Alumina - On May 15, the alumina futures main contract had significant gains. The rise was driven by supply tightening (more maintenance and production cuts in alumina enterprises, declining operating capacity, low production, and no new capacity in the short - term) and increased demand (more inquiries in the spot market, rising procurement willingness of aluminum plants). Although the current supply surplus is hard to disprove, short - term supply tightening and stable demand support the price. However, the restored profit may ease the supply - side production - cut sentiment, and cost reduction has potential negative impacts on prices. It is recommended for investors to operate in the short - term and be cautious when chasing high prices [3][4] A - shares - After continuous upward oscillations, A - shares fell across the board on this day, and technically, there is a high probability of entering an adjustment and oscillation phase [6] Gold - Gold further weakened and hit a new low during the session, weaker than expected. But this is still part of the adjustment, and the long - term trend remains bullish. The most important support is the low point after the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, and short - term repair requires time [11][10] Iron Ore - In May, downstream export reduction and increased shipments lead to large supply - surplus pressure, and domestic demand is about to enter the seasonal off - season, increasing the high - valuation risk of iron ore. Affected by the positive news of Sino - US economic and trade negotiations, market sentiment has improved. Technically, it was in high - level consolidation today, and a short - term bullish oscillation mindset is maintained [14] Glass - The continuous increase in demand depends on the effects of real - estate stimulus or the introduction of major policies. Affected by the positive news of Sino - US economic and trade negotiations, risk appetite has increased. Technically, it had a narrow - range operation today, and the oscillation mindset is maintained. Currently, the daily melting volume is at a low level. Although spot production and sales have improved, factory inventories are still high, and the restocking motivation of downstream deep - processing orders is weak [17][18] PTA - Fundamentally, the operating rate of PX plants remains low, and major factories like Zhejiang Petrochemical and Shenghong plan to conduct maintenance in May, resulting in tight spot circulation. Meanwhile, the poor demand in the downstream polyester industry suppresses the PTA futures price, creating fundamental pressure for it to break through the resistance level. Technically, it shows signs of peaking in the short - term [21]