期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 宝城期货甲醇早报-2025-12-30 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 甲醇 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 多空分歧出现，甲醇震荡偏强 | 备注： 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 甲醇（MA） 日内观点：偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏强运行 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 | 每 日 期 | | 扫码关注宝城期货官方微信·期货咨询尽在掌握 | | --- | --- | --- | | 货 观 | | | | ...

期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 宝城期货甲醇早报-2025-12-16 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 甲醇 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 多空分歧出现，甲醇震荡偏弱 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 甲醇（MA） 日内观点：偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑：随着前期利多因素逐渐消化，受困于国内甲醇供应压力不断增大，同时面对国内煤炭期 货价格大幅回调的拖累，甲醇期货反弹受阻，转而重新陷入回调走势。目前港口库存和内陆地区库 存小幅回落，但依然处于高位。同时下 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The methanol 2601 contract is expected to operate weakly. In the short - term, it is weak; in the medium - term, it is oscillating; and on the day, it is also weak [1][5] 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Time Cycle and View Definitions - Short - term refers to within one week, medium - term refers to two weeks to one month. For varieties with night trading, the starting price is the night - trading closing price; for those without, it is the previous day's closing price. The ending price is the day - trading closing price for calculating the price change. A decline greater than 1% is considered weak, a decline of 0 - 1% is weakish, a rise of 0 - 1% is strongish, and a rise greater than 1% is strong. The strongish/weakish description is only for the intraday view [1][2][3] 3.2 Price and Market Analysis of Methanol - The recent agreement in the US Senate to end the federal government "shutdown" has improved market sentiment and investors' risk appetite. Currently, the domestic methanol operating rate and weekly output remain at relatively high levels, and the external import pressure continues to increase. The methanol inventories at ports in East and South China are high. On Tuesday night, the domestic methanol futures 2601 contract oscillated, with the futures price slightly rising 0.00% to 2094 yuan/ton. It is expected that the contract will maintain a weak trend on Wednesday [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term rise of urea futures lacks strong fundamental support, and the long - term supply - demand imbalance remains. However, there may be short - term long opportunities, and the follow - up market depends on the export quota policy [3][5]. - The stock index futures are expected to continue to oscillate upward at a high level [9]. - Gold shows signs of stabilization after adjustment and can be bought at low levels [14]. - For iron ore, wait for a stabilization signal as it approaches the lower edge of the daily - level oscillation range, and there is a long - term expectation of loose supply [17][18]. - Glass is expected to maintain an oscillating trend in the short term, and its future drive lies in policy - side stimulus and anti - involution policies [21][22]. - There is a seasonal supply shortage of eggs, and long opportunities should be grasped [24]. - Pulp is expected to run weakly and should be treated as a low - level oscillation [28]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Urea Futures - On November 5, the urea futures 2601 contract closed at 1632 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan or 0.49% from the previous day, driven by the spot market. But in 2025, urea is in a capacity expansion cycle with nearly 7 million tons of new capacity added annually. The demand is in the traditional off - season, and the total demand increment is far less than the supply increment [3][4]. Stock Index Futures - The index closed with a solid mid -阳线. Affected by high - valuation concerns, global risk assets tumbled. The central bank carried out 700 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchase operations. The market is expected to continue to oscillate upward at a high level [9]. Gold - After more than a week of adjustment, gold shows signs of stabilization and can be bought at low levels [14]. Iron Ore - After the holiday, the terminal situation has not actually improved, and molten iron may decline periodically. Technically, it is approaching the lower edge of the daily - level oscillation range. In the long term, with the commissioning of the Simandou project, there is an expectation of loose supply [17][18]. Glass - The daily melting amount has little change, and the inventory has decreased this week. Technically, it冲高回落 today and is expected to oscillate in the short term. The future drive lies in policy - side stimulus and anti - involution policies [21][22]. Eggs - As the temperature drops, egg - laying hens in the main breeding areas in the north will enter the winter egg - laying off - season, and those in the south will enter the early stage of the winter egg - laying off - season. The monthly total supply of commercial poultry eggs will stop increasing and start to decline, and the seasonal supply shortage will become prominent [24]. Pulp - The pulp price in Shandong remains stable. The price increase of downstream paper enterprises boosts the pulp price, and the futures increase in positions and prices. The supply is still loose, and the procurement side is cautious. It is expected to run weakly and should be treated as a low - level oscillation [28].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The report predicts that the domestic methanol futures 2601 contract may maintain a volatile and stable trend on Thursday. Although downstream demand is gradually improving, the weak demand situation still needs to be improved, and the contract is facing the suppression of the medium - term downward trend [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog Price and Market Conditions - The domestic methanol futures 2601 contract showed a narrow - range consolidation on Wednesday night, with the futures price slightly down 0.13% to 2262 yuan/ton [5]. Core Logic - After the market digested the event of sanctions on Iranian methanol vessels, the bullish driving force weakened. The domestic methanol operating rate and weekly output remain at a relatively high level, the external import pressure continues to increase, and the peak of imports this year has arrived, leading to high methanol inventories at ports in East and South China before the festival. Although downstream demand is gradually improving, the olefin futures profit is not good, and the weak demand situation still needs to be improved [5]. Time - based Views - Short - term view: The methanol 2601 is considered to be weakly volatile. Medium - term view: It is also weakly volatile. Intraday view: It is strongly volatile. The reference view is a strong - running trend [1][5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - The methanol 2601 contract is expected to run strongly, showing an oscillating trend in the short and medium - term and an oscillating and slightly stronger trend intraday [1][5]. - The supply pressure of methanol at home and abroad is still high, and downstream demand is in the off - season. The weak supply - demand structure causes the price center to face a downward shift. However, due to the small increase in domestic coal futures prices on Thursday night, the methanol futures 2601 contract showed an oscillating and slightly stronger trend, with the futures price rising slightly by 1.18% to 2408 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain this trend on Friday [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Morning Meeting Minutes - For the methanol 2601 contract, the short - term view is oscillating, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the intraday view is oscillating and slightly stronger. The reference view is to run strongly, and the core logic is that the coal futures price rebounds, leading to the oscillating and slightly stronger trend of methanol [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Commodity Futures Energy and Chemicals Sector - The intraday view of methanol is oscillating and slightly stronger, and the medium - term view is oscillating. The reference view is to run strongly. The current supply - demand structure of methanol is weak, but the small increase in domestic coal futures prices on Thursday night led to the oscillating and slightly stronger trend of the methanol futures 2601 contract, and it is expected to maintain this trend on Friday [5].

Report Title - "Bottom Range, Oscillating with an Upward Bias - Guoxin Futures Non - Ferrous (Nickel) Weekly Report" dated May 18, 2025 [2][3] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoint - After the Sino - US Geneva economic and trade talks, the two sides reached a series of important consensuses on tariff adjustments, and China's exports in April showed strong resilience. The Shanghai nickel market showed an oscillating trend this week. The spot trading of refined nickel was stable, the changes in premiums and discounts were small, the mine - end market changed little, the quotes of mines were firm, the price of nickel sulfate was weak, and the salt plants were in a loss state. After the holiday, stainless steel inventory increased, and the demand was mainly for rigid procurement. The demand has resilience, but whether it will improve in the medium and long term remains to be verified by further data. It is expected that the operating range of the main contract of Shanghai nickel is approximately 115,000 to 134,000 yuan/ton, and that of the main contract of stainless steel is approximately 12,700 to 13,500 yuan/ton [36] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - This part shows the historical price trend chart of the main contract of nickel futures from December 31, 2020, to April 30, 2025, with the price range from 0 to 300,000 yuan/ton [8] 2. Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Upstream - China's Nickel Ore Port Inventory - Displays the monthly import volume of nickel ore sand and concentrates from the Philippines, with the data range from 0 to 6 million tons [13] 2.2 Mid - stream - Electrolytic Nickel Price - Presents the price trend chart of electrolytic nickel (1, Ni99.90, domestic and imported) from 0 to 300,000 yuan/ton [16] 2.3 Mid - stream - Nickel Sulfate Price - Shows the average price trend chart of nickel sulfate in China, with the price range from 0 to 70,000 yuan/ton [18] 2.4 Mid - stream - Monthly Import Volume of Ferronickel and Fubao Price of 8 - 12% Ferronickel - Displays the monthly import volume of ferronickel in China from 0 to 1 million tons and the Fubao price of 8 - 12% ferronickel from 0 to 1,800 yuan/nickel [20] 2.5 Downstream - Stainless Steel - **Price**: Displays the closing price trend chart of stainless steel futures (continuous), with the price range from 0 to 25,000 yuan/ton [22] - **Position**: Shows the position volume trend chart of stainless steel futures, with the position volume range from 0 to 400,000 lots [24] - **Inventory**: Displays the inventory trend chart of Wuxi stainless steel and Wuxi 300 - series stainless steel, with the inventory range from 0 to 800,000 tons [26] 2.6 Downstream - Production of Power and Energy Storage Batteries - Shows the monthly production value trend chart of power and energy storage batteries (ternary materials) and the total monthly production value trend chart of power and energy storage batteries in China, with the production value range from 0 to 140,000 MWh [29] 2.7 Downstream - Production of New Energy Vehicles - Displays the monthly production value trend chart of new energy vehicles in China, with the production value range from 0 to 140,000 vehicles [31] 3. Outlook for the Future - After the Sino - US Geneva economic and trade talks, tariff adjustments were made. China's exports in April showed strong resilience. The Shanghai nickel market oscillated this week. The spot trading of refined nickel was stable, the mine - end market changed little, the price of nickel sulfate was weak, and stainless steel inventory increased after the holiday. It is expected that the operating range of the main contract of Shanghai nickel is approximately 115,000 to 134,000 yuan/ton, and that of the main contract of stainless steel is approximately 12,700 to 13,500 yuan/ton [36]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On May 15, the alumina futures market showed strong performance, with significant gains in the main contract. The short - term futures price may remain strong, expected to continue box - type fluctuations. A - shares fell across the board after continuous upward oscillations. Gold continued to weaken but the long - term trend is still bullish. Iron ore has high - valuation risks but short - term is in a bullish oscillation. The glass market continues to oscillate. PTA shows signs of peaking in the short - term [3][4][6][11][14][17][21] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Alumina - On May 15, the alumina futures main contract had significant gains. The rise was driven by supply tightening (more maintenance and production cuts in alumina enterprises, declining operating capacity, low production, and no new capacity in the short - term) and increased demand (more inquiries in the spot market, rising procurement willingness of aluminum plants). Although the current supply surplus is hard to disprove, short - term supply tightening and stable demand support the price. However, the restored profit may ease the supply - side production - cut sentiment, and cost reduction has potential negative impacts on prices. It is recommended for investors to operate in the short - term and be cautious when chasing high prices [3][4] A - shares - After continuous upward oscillations, A - shares fell across the board on this day, and technically, there is a high probability of entering an adjustment and oscillation phase [6] Gold - Gold further weakened and hit a new low during the session, weaker than expected. But this is still part of the adjustment, and the long - term trend remains bullish. The most important support is the low point after the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, and short - term repair requires time [11][10] Iron Ore - In May, downstream export reduction and increased shipments lead to large supply - surplus pressure, and domestic demand is about to enter the seasonal off - season, increasing the high - valuation risk of iron ore. Affected by the positive news of Sino - US economic and trade negotiations, market sentiment has improved. Technically, it was in high - level consolidation today, and a short - term bullish oscillation mindset is maintained [14] Glass - The continuous increase in demand depends on the effects of real - estate stimulus or the introduction of major policies. Affected by the positive news of Sino - US economic and trade negotiations, risk appetite has increased. Technically, it had a narrow - range operation today, and the oscillation mindset is maintained. Currently, the daily melting volume is at a low level. Although spot production and sales have improved, factory inventories are still high, and the restocking motivation of downstream deep - processing orders is weak [17][18] PTA - Fundamentally, the operating rate of PX plants remains low, and major factories like Zhejiang Petrochemical and Shenghong plan to conduct maintenance in May, resulting in tight spot circulation. Meanwhile, the poor demand in the downstream polyester industry suppresses the PTA futures price, creating fundamental pressure for it to break through the resistance level. Technically, it shows signs of peaking in the short - term [21]