钢铁行业呈现供需双降、结构优化、盈利边际改善态势 信达证券主要观点如下： 供给端：总量收缩+结构分化，资本开支延续弱增态势。受"反内卷"政策导向、房地产行业下行及基建 支撑力度有限等多重因素叠加影响，钢铁行业资本开支已连续四年放缓，2025年进一步陷入负增长区 间。产量层面，1-10月，全国粗钢产量达8.2亿吨，同比减少3.9%，月度产量呈现明确的前高后低走 势。结构分化特征显著，制造业用钢与建筑业用钢产量呈现反向变动，冷轧薄板（+9.9%）、无缝钢管 （+7.9%）、电工钢板带（+7.3%）等高端制造类钢材产量增速居前，而建筑用钢筋产量同比下滑约 1.2%，反映出行业供给结构向高附加值领域倾斜。 需求端：内需持续收缩，专项债拉动效应边际减弱，出口成为重要拉动力。国内粗钢消费降幅持续扩 大，2025年1-10月国内粗钢需求量为7.1亿吨，同比下降6.4%。传统用钢领域需求延续疲软态势：房地 产与基建领域用钢需求持续收缩，2025年10月房地产新开工面积、施工面积分别降至0.37亿平方米、 0.44亿平方米；尽管地方政府专项债净融资规模维持高位，但资金投向更侧重债务化解，对钢材消费的 拉动效应显著减弱。出口已成 ...

Core Insights - The steel industry is experiencing a dual decline in supply and demand, with structural optimization and marginal profit improvement. Supply side: total contraction and structural differentiation, with capital expenditure continuing to show weak growth. The steel industry's capital expenditure has been slowing for four consecutive years, entering negative growth in 2025 due to multiple factors including "anti-involution" policies, a downturn in the real estate sector, and limited infrastructure support [2][10] - The domestic crude steel consumption has decreased significantly, with a 6.4% year-on-year decline in demand from January to October 2025, amounting to 710 million tons. The demand in traditional steel usage areas remains weak, particularly in real estate and infrastructure [2][32] - Exports have become a crucial support for the steel industry, with steel exports reaching 97.74 million tons from January to October 2025, a 6.4% increase year-on-year. The total annual export volume is expected to exceed 110 million tons, effectively offsetting the pressure from declining domestic demand [2][48] Group 1: Marginal Improvement in the Steel Industry - The average steel price has continued to decline, with the comprehensive price index for ordinary steel dropping to 3,447 yuan/ton as of November 24, 2025, down approximately 200 yuan from the year's peak [10][60] - The profit margin of the steel industry has shown significant improvement, with the gross profit margin reaching 6.4% in Q3 2025, marking a recovery from the low levels seen since 2022 [13][15] - The proportion of loss-making enterprises in the steel industry has slightly decreased but remains high at 37.18%, indicating ongoing challenges within the industry [17] Group 2: PPI Turnaround Expectations - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for the steel industry is expected to turn positive by Q2 2026, driven by improvements in supply structure and demand dynamics [53][60] - Historical data shows that the steel industry plays a significant role in PPI fluctuations, with past PPI turnarounds in 2016 and 2021 coinciding with significant steel industry performance [54][60] - The steel industry accounts for approximately 5.9% of the PPI, making its price movements critical for overall industrial price trends [53][54] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-efficiency, low-emission regional leading enterprises such as Hualing Steel, Shougang, and Shandong Steel, as well as companies with strong growth potential like Baosteel and Nanjing Steel [4][60] - The steel sector is viewed as having strong "anti-involution" attributes and significant profit recovery potential, making it a strategic investment opportunity for the medium to long term [4][60] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the performance of small and medium-sized steel companies, particularly those with strong earnings growth and valuation appeal [4][60]