Group 1 - Malaysia's total trade is projected to exceed 3 trillion ringgit in 2025, marking a historical high amid rising global trade uncertainties, with a year-on-year growth of 6.3% [1] - Exports for 2025 are expected to surpass 1 trillion ringgit for the fifth consecutive year, reaching 1.607 trillion ringgit, a 6.5% increase, while imports will grow by 6.2% to 1.455 trillion ringgit [1] - Malaysia has achieved a trade surplus for the 28th consecutive year since 1998, with manufactured goods, particularly electrical and electronic products, driving export growth [1] Group 2 - The Malaysian Ministry of Finance forecasts a trade growth of 3.3% in 2026, with exports increasing by 2.8% and imports by 3.9%, supported by resilient domestic demand and ongoing investment activities [2] - The report emphasizes that higher utilization of free trade agreements will be key to expanding Malaysian products into diverse markets, aiding export growth [2] - Expanding market access to emerging markets is expected to create more opportunities for Malaysian exporters, reducing reliance on traditional markets [2]

Core Viewpoint - Malaysia's recent narrowing trade surplus raises market concerns, potentially impacting economic growth in Q4 2025 and dragging down the current account and overall GDP performance [1] Group 1: Trade and Economic Indicators - CIMB economists warn that the trend of a narrowing trade surplus may suppress economic growth in Q4 2025 [1] - In November 2025, Malaysia's capital goods imports surged by 56.8% year-on-year, indicating strong domestic fixed asset investment [1] - Despite external trade pressures, investment activities driven by domestic demand are providing significant economic support [1] Group 2: Sector Performance - The technology sector is in an upward cycle, with electrical and electronic product exports maintaining double-digit growth, which may help offset the downward risks from commodity price fluctuations [1] - CIMB maintains its GDP growth forecast for Malaysia at 4.5% for the entire year of 2025 [1] Group 3: Trade Resilience - Despite the short-term challenges posed by a narrowing trade surplus, CIMB believes that Malaysia's overall trade fundamentals remain resilient [1] - The increasing proportion of high-value-added products in the export structure and active manufacturing investment are seen as key drivers supporting mid-term growth [1]

Core Viewpoint - Malaysia's recent narrowing trade surplus raises market concerns, potentially impacting economic growth in Q4 2025 and dragging down the current account and overall GDP performance [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - In November 2025, Malaysia's capital goods imports surged by 56.8% year-on-year, indicating strong domestic fixed asset investment [1] - Despite external trade pressures, investment activities driven by domestic demand are providing significant economic support [1] Group 2: Sector Performance - The technology sector is in an upward cycle, with electrical and electronic product exports maintaining double-digit growth, which may help mitigate the downward risks from commodity price fluctuations [1] - CIMB maintains its GDP growth forecast for Malaysia at 4.5% for the entire year of 2025 based on these factors [1] Group 3: Trade Resilience - Although the narrowing trade surplus presents short-term challenges, CIMB believes that Malaysia's overall trade fundamentals remain resilient [1] - The increasing proportion of high-value-added products in the export structure and active manufacturing investment are seen as key drivers for mid-term growth [1]