欢迎加入交易理想国知识星球 文 | 交易理想国知识星球 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 本周（2025年11月16日--11月21日）交易理想国知识星球共发布37条内容，以下是筛选出的本周精华内容片段摘要，完整版内容可扫码查看。 如何看待碳酸锂的跌停 0 1 碳酸锂触及跌停，气势如虹的买盘一夜蒸发，行情走出一根陡峭的阴线，是政策干预与市场基本面的激烈博弈？ 从监管角度看，广期所旨在防止市场过度投机，尤其可能对实体产业造成冲击，这种降温举措是非常及时有效的。 从市场角度看，多头的预期逻辑，事实构成了漫天叫价，有多少梦想在自由地飞翔呢？10万？12万？15万？20万？25万？还是60万？ 是呀，如果大佬预测明年价格能去15万，20万，为什么现在不是10万，或是12万，或是14万，或是14万9？19.9万？ 最后临门一脚，小心轻射，不就15万，20万了吗？ 所有的数字，都是有些人的笑容，有些人的哭泣。 还是先别讨论明年的供需平衡表了吧？真的很有意义吗？或是暂时删掉碳酸锂，如果你的神经不够大条。 甲醇：01 的冬天，05 的春天？ 0 2 为什么 05 合约更值得关注？ 因为 05 是少有的 "基本面可能改善 ...

来源：市场资讯 会后，孙瑾教授参加了RSPO组织的实地调研，深入当地大型、中型、小型企业进行实地走访，与当地 供应链企业进行深度交流。 RSPO成立于2004年，旨在促进棕榈油行业可持续发展的全球合作伙伴关系。RSPO主办的年度全球大 会，是全球棕榈油行业推动可持续发展最具影响力的多利益相关方会议平台，RT会议已成为引领全球 可持续棕榈油理念、标准制定、政策对话与合作倡议的重要场域。 新媒体编辑：马文慧 会上，孙瑾教授首先介绍了全球贸易发展趋势与亚洲的潜力和领导力，特别是可持续贸易的关键作用。 她表示，依据可持续贸易产品分类，中国环保产品出口额已占到总出口额的10% 以上，可持续贸易产 品的价值从 2010 年的 1000 亿美元增长到了 2024 年的 2000 亿美元。马来西亚则是可持续贸易领域排名 第二的发展中国家，然而自 2022 年起，印度和泰国相继超越马来西亚，在这一领域的发展中国家中排 名升至第二和第三位。其次，孙瑾教授介绍了她撰写的《绿色贸易融资》，指出企业能够利用金融工具 积极促进可持续贸易，绿色贸易融资发挥着至关重要的作用，诸如绿色信用证之类的工具就是有力的例 证。这一过程中的关键环节是需 ...

智通财经APP获悉，随着印尼加快推进其生物燃料计划，棕榈油即将迎来一轮牛市行情，原因在于印尼这一举措预计将减少全球最大生产国的出口供应，并 加剧全球棕榈油供应紧张。 据悉，作为全球生物燃料领域领导者的印尼如今计划将更多棕榈油库存用于国内，计划于明年下半年将生物柴油强制掺混率从40%提高至50%。这项所谓的 B50计划是印尼一举降低高昂燃料进口费用和温室气体排放的努力之一。 不过，这一举措叠加全球主要生产国棕榈油产量增长停滞的趋势，可能推高全球价格、扰动植物油流向，甚至在买家被迫转向更昂贵替代品时助长食品通 胀。棕榈油广泛用于巧克力、化妆品等日常用品。过去几个月来，其价格在库存上升与需求不确定之间波动，今年迄今累计下跌6%，目前为每吨4,145林吉 特(约999.61美元)。 BMI高级大宗商品分析师Matthew Biggin指出，随着印尼大幅削减棕榈油出口以实现更高的国内生物柴油掺混比例，全球买家可能被迫寻找新的供应来源。 他表示："这将需要政府有意进行干预，将国内生物柴油生产置于出口之上，这很可能影响到传统进口市场。" B50计划的推出时机将对市场走势至关重要，并将在本周由Gapki主导的会议上受到密切关 ...

Hot News - In October, the wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 1.621 million, a year-on-year increase of 18.5% and a month-on-month increase of 8.5%. From January to October, the cumulative wholesale was 12.058 million, a growth of 29.9% [4]. - Since 13:01 on November 10, 2025, China has suspended the implementation of countermeasures against the US Section 301 investigation on the maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding industries for one year [4]. - In October, Malaysia's palm oil inventory was 2,464,452 tons, a month-on-month increase of 4.44%, and the palm oil production was 2,043,886 tons, a month-on-month increase of 11.02% [4]. - In the first three quarters of 2025, the net inflow of domestic gold ETFs was 79.015 tons, a year-on-year increase of 164.03%. The gold consumption was 682.730 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 7.95%. Among them, gold jewelry consumption was 270.036 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 32.50%; gold bars and coins consumption was 352.116 tons, a year-on-year increase of 24.55%; industrial and other gold consumption was 60.578 tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.72% [4]. - As of November 10, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.7062 million tons, a decrease of 0.008 million tons from last Thursday, a decline of 0.47%. Among them, the inventory of light soda ash was 0.7977 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.0169 million tons, and the inventory of heavy soda ash was 0.9085 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 0.0089 million tons [4]. Plate Performance - Key focus: Soda ash, glass, coking coal, SHFE copper, SHFE gold [5]. - Night session performance: Non-metallic building materials rose 3.25%, precious metals rose 29.09%, oilseeds rose 9.52%, non-ferrous metals rose 23.21%, soft commodities rose 2.72%, coal, coke, steel and minerals rose 13.02%, energy rose 2.90%, chemicals rose 11.18%, grains rose 1.20%, and agricultural and sideline products rose 3.90% [5]. Large - Class Asset Performance | Category | Name | Daily Return (%) | Monthly Return (%) | Year - to - Date Return (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Equity | Shanghai Composite Index | 0.53 | Fetching... | 19.90 | | | SSE 50 | 0.51 | -0.12 | 13.75 | | | CSI 300 | 0.35 | -0.29 | 19.32 | | | CSI 500 | 0.22 | -1.39 | 28.26 | | | S&P 500 | 1.54 | -0.64 | 16.17 | | | Hang Seng Index | 1.55 | 0.11 | 32.85 | | | German DAX | 1.65 | 0.38 | 20.35 | | | Nikkei 225 | 1.26 | -4.20 | 27.62 | | | FTSE 100 | 1.08 | 0.62 | 19.75 | | Fixed - Income | 10 - year Treasury Bond Futures | 0.01 | -0.18 | -0.40 | | | 5 - year Treasury Bond Futures | 0.02 | -0.12 | -0.56 | | | 2 - year Treasury Bond Futures | -0.00 | -0.07 | -0.49 | | Commodity | CRB Commodity Index | 1.38 | -0.09 | 2.81 | | | WTI Crude Oil | 0.47 | -2.09 | -16.53 | | | London Spot Gold | 2.88 | -0.57 | 56.84 | | | LME Copper | 1.47 | -1.46 | 23.83 | | | Wind Commodity Index | 1.61 | -2.67 | 30.21 | | Other | US Dollar Index | 0.07 | 0.43 | -8.17 | | | CBOE Volatility Index | 0.00 | 3.27 | 9.97 | [7]

（文章来源：新华财经） 马来西亚棕榈油局（MPOB）月度报告显示，马来西亚10月棕榈油产量为2043886吨，环比增长 11.02%；棕榈油出口为1692895吨，环比增长18.58%。截至10月末，马来西亚棕榈油库存量为2464452 吨，环比增长4.44%。 ...

Summary of Palm Oil Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Palm Oil - **Key Countries**: Indonesia, Malaysia Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Indonesia's Palm Oil Production Forecast**: JAPKI predicts a 10% increase in Indonesia's palm oil production by 2025, but actual production may decrease by 2%-3% due to government land reclamation of illegally occupied areas, affecting 4.5 million hectares, or 1/6 of total planting area [1][2][7] 2. **Malaysia's Market Analysis**: Malaysia's production is only 1/5 of Indonesia's, limited by labor shortages and rising fertilizer costs. Monthly inventory fluctuates around 500,000 tons, insufficient to impact the market significantly [1][3][7] 3. **Biodiesel Policy Driving Demand**: Indonesia's B40 and B50 biodiesel initiatives are expected to significantly boost palm oil demand. Rising soybean oil prices in the US and Argentina are leading countries like India and China to switch to palm oil, resulting in a slight increase in recent inventories [1][4][7] 4. **Aging Palm Trees Increasing Supply Pressure**: Malaysia faces challenges with aging palm trees, which require frequent replacement to maintain stable supply. The slow replacement rate exacerbates supply issues [1][6][7] 5. **Global Biodiesel Development Trends**: While US biodiesel policies are cooling, there remains potential for demand growth. China is actively developing Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF), with a target to increase SAF blending to 5% within three years, supporting oil prices [1][12][14] Additional Important Insights 1. **Supply Changes in Indonesia and Malaysia**: Indonesia's palm oil production is crucial, with official figures indicating an annual output of 18-20 million tons. However, the transparency of these figures is low, and the government's land reclamation efforts are expected to significantly impact production [2][8] 2. **B50 Policy Status**: The B50 policy in Indonesia has completed testing but may face delays due to funding and technical issues. The new president is optimistic about advancing this policy [9][10] 3. **US Biodiesel Policy Impact**: Recent cooling in US biodiesel policies has created uncertainty, but demand is still expected to grow, with a projected 23% increase in soybean oil usage for biodiesel this summer [11] 4. **China's SAF Developments**: China is increasing its SAF production capacity, which will require more raw materials, thereby supporting overall oil prices [12][17] 5. **Malaysia's Export Adjustments**: Malaysia is reducing palm oil exports to meet domestic aviation fuel needs, tightening supply further [13][27] 6. **Global Biodiesel Trends**: Countries worldwide are pushing biodiesel projects, which will support palm oil demand. Chinese companies are pre-purchasing supplies to mitigate future shortages [27] Conclusion - The palm oil market is expected to tighten by 2025 due to supply constraints in Indonesia and Malaysia, while demand remains strong driven by biodiesel policies. Investment opportunities exist, but close monitoring of policy changes and execution is essential [7][22]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current macro - level is in a relatively vacuum period, A - shares lack a clear upward main line, market trading volume remains low, and the stock index continues to fluctuate, accumulating momentum for the next round of upward movement. Meanwhile, with policy support and abundant macro - liquidity, there is still strong support below the stock index [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward space, showing an oscillating trend [1]. - **Copper**: The tight pattern of US dollar liquidity has eased, market risk appetite has recovered, and copper prices have stopped falling [1]. - **Aluminum**: Recently, the industrial - side driving force is limited, and the macro - level benefits have been digested, so aluminum prices are oscillating [1]. - **Alumina**: With still a small profit in production, domestic alumina production capacity is continuously released, and both production and inventory are increasing, putting pressure on the spot price. Recently, attention should be paid to the cost support [1]. - **Zinc**: The US government shutdown has reached the longest historical record, and market risk - aversion sentiment has increased. The LME zinc inventory has been continuously decreasing, and the short - squeeze movement has driven zinc prices higher. However, considering the domestic oversupply, caution is needed when chasing high prices [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Nickel**: The better - than - expected US ADP data has alleviated concerns about the US economic recession, but the expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut has been suppressed, and market risk appetite has fluctuated. Indonesia has recently restricted the approval of nickel - related smelting projects again, but the approved projects are not affected. In the fourth quarter, attention should be paid to the approval of nickel - ore quotas in 2026. Nickel prices may oscillate in the short term, and high inventory pressure should be watched out for. It is recommended to trade within a short - term range, and the long - term surplus pattern of primary nickel will continue [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: The better - than - expected US ADP data has alleviated concerns about the US economic recession, but the expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut has been suppressed, and market risk appetite has fluctuated. Indonesia has restricted the approval of nickel - related smelting projects again, but the approved projects are not affected. In the fourth quarter, attention should be paid to the progress of the approval of Indonesian nickel - ore quotas, and the premium at the ore end is currently stable. The price of raw - material ferronickel has weakened slightly, the social inventory of stainless steel has decreased slightly, and the steel mills' production plan for October is stable. Macro - sentiment is fluctuating, steel mills have recently lifted price limits, and stainless - steel futures are oscillating at the bottom. It is recommended to trade short - term and look for opportunities to sell on rallies [1]. - **Tin**: Recently, the positive macro - sentiment has been digested. Considering that the raw - material end of tin has not recovered and the new - quality demand is expected to be good, it is still recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips in the long - term [1]. Precious Metals and New Energy - **Precious Metals (Gold and Silver)**: Judges of the high - court generally question the legitimacy of tariffs, increasing market uncertainty and supporting precious - metal prices. However, the resilience of US economic data has disrupted the interest - rate cut expectation. Precious metals are expected to oscillate within a range in the short term [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The production capacity in the northwest is continuously resuming, the start - up in the southwest is weaker than in previous years, and the impact of the dry season is weakened [1]. - **Polysilicon**: In the long - term, there is an expectation of production - capacity reduction. In the fourth quarter, the terminal installation will increase marginally. The anti - involution policy has not been implemented for a long time, and market sentiment has faded [1]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The traditional peak season for new - energy vehicles is approaching, the energy - storage demand is strong, but the hedging pressure is large [1]. Ferrous Metals - **Rebar**: There are concerns about the potential weakening of industrial demand in the off - season. After the macro - sentiment is realized, attention should be paid to the upward pressure. It is advisable to participate in the out - of - the - money accumulative put option strategy [1]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: The off - season effect of the industry is not obvious, but the industrial structure is still loose. Similarly, attention should be paid to the upward pressure on prices after the macro - sentiment is realized [1]. - **Iron Ore**: Near - month production is restricted, but the commodity sentiment is good, and there is still an upward opportunity for far - month contracts [1]. - **Sulfur**: The direct demand is good, and there is cost support, but the supply is high, inventory is accumulating, and the sector is under pressure, with limited price rebound space [1]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Coking coal is struggling near the previous high, repeatedly testing the support. The high point of the coke futures price has included the expectation of five rounds of price increases, but the actual three - round price increase has been delayed, and the game is intense. Based on the tight supply, coke and coking coal are relatively strong, but considering the weakening of steel prices and the potential weakening of steel demand in November, the futures prices of coke and coking coal are likely to return to the oscillating range after a false breakout. In the short - term, it is advisable to wait and see, and in the long - term, it is still advisable to go long at low prices. Industrial customers can consider selling hedging [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: In the short term, palm oil still faces the dual pressures of seasonal production increase and weak exports. However, starting from November, Malaysia enters the traditional production - reduction cycle. If export data improve significantly, it may trigger a staged rebound [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: According to the China - US negotiation agreement, China will purchase 12 million tons of US soybeans in the next two months, which may bring a loose expectation for soybean oil in the fourth quarter, and the rebound momentum is insufficient. The actual impact needs to be observed [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The meeting between Chinese and Canadian leaders has brought the expectation of Sino - Canadian relaxation, and the bumper harvest of Canadian rapeseed has put pressure on the futures price [1]. - **Cotton**: Although the production capacity in Xinjiang is expanding, the production capacity in the inland may decrease marginally. At the same time, due to the thinning of spinning profits in Xinjiang, the operating rate may also be affected. The contradiction between the expansion of Xinjiang's production capacity and the reduction of spinning profits makes the cotton demand in the new year highly uncertain. The current futures price has fully priced in the selling pressure of new crops, and the downward space is limited, but under the background of a record - high production of new crops, the basis and futures price may continue to be under pressure [1]. - **Sugar**: Typhoons before and after the National Day have had an adverse impact on the sugar - cane harvest and production in South China. There is a seasonal upward impetus for sugar prices in the short term. In the medium - term, considering the good growth of sugar cane this year, the rebound space after the new - sugar listing is expected to be limited [1]. - **Soybeans and Soybean Meal**: The domestic soybean purchase and crushing profit is poor, and the domestic futures price is undervalued. With the expectation of China's purchase of US soybeans, the import cost of US soybeans is expected to rise, and the domestic futures price is expected to rebound in the short term to repair the crushing profit. However, the current loose supply of domestic soybean - meal spot and the expected loose global soybean supply in the long - term limit the rebound height [1]. - **Paper Pulp**: The current trading logic of paper pulp is related to the trading of old warehouse receipts for the November contract. With weak downstream demand, the futures price is under great pressure. It is recommended to conduct a reverse spread between the November and January contracts [1]. - **Log**: The fundamentals of logs have declined, but the spot price is firm. After a sharp decline in the futures price, the risk - return ratio of short - selling is low. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Live Pigs**: In the past half - month, the spot price has risen alternately in the north and south due to secondary fattening, frozen - product storage, and reluctance to sell, which has postponed the production capacity. There is still pressure on the November slaughter. In the short term, the futures price is at the same level as the spot price, and the futures price will follow the spot price to stabilize and then weaken [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ plans to continue a small - scale production increase in December, the short - term geopolitical speculation has cooled down, and the suspension of some China - US trade - tariff policies has eased market sentiment [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: Similar to crude oil, the short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it follows the trend of crude oil. The demand for the 14th Five - Year Plan construction rush is likely to be falsified, and the supply of Venezuelan crude oil is sufficient. The profit of asphalt is high [1]. - **Natural Rubber**: There is strong support from raw - material costs, the mid - stream inventory is continuously decreasing, and the commodity - market atmosphere is positive [1]. - **BR Rubber**: The decline of crude - oil prices has reduced the cost support of butadiene, and the supply of synthetic rubber is loose. High - production and high - inventory have not suppressed the price, and the mainstream supply price has been continuously reduced [1]. - **PTA**: Gasoline profit and low benzene price support PX. The gasoline cracking price has risen above $15, prompting refineries to increase gasoline production and reduce the feed of aromatic - hydrocarbon units. Overseas device failures and the decline of the operating load of some domestic reforming units, as well as the rotation inspection of large domestic PTA devices, have led to a decline in domestic PTA production [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The decline of crude - oil prices has led to a decline in ethylene - glycol prices, while the rise of coal prices has slightly strengthened the cost support of domestic ethylene glycol. The "Golden September and Silver October" of the polyester industry is coming to an end, and the domestic demand has not significantly declined [1]. - **Short - Fiber**: Gasoline profit and low benzene price support PX. The rebound of PTA prices has strengthened the basis of short - fiber. Short - fiber prices continue to fluctuate closely with costs [1]. - **Styrene**: The Asian benzene price is still weak, the operating rates of STDP and reforming units have declined, the arbitrage window from Northeast Asia to the US is still closed, the profit of domestic styrene has decreased, the number of styrene - device overhauls has gradually increased, and crude - oil prices have continued to fall [1]. - **Urea**: The export sentiment has eased slightly, and the limited domestic demand restricts the upward space. There is support from anti - involution and cost - end factors [1]. - **PE**: Under high - supply, the inventory pressure is large, the intensity of overhauls has weakened, and the downstream demand is slowly increasing, but the peak season is not prosperous [1]. - **PP**: The support from overhauls is limited, and the new - device production has increased the supply pressure. The downstream improvement is less than expected, and the futures price has returned to the fundamentals, showing a weak - oscillating trend [1]. - **PVC**: The overhauls have decreased compared with the previous period, and the new production capacity has been released, increasing the supply pressure. The rise of coal prices has strengthened the cost support of PVC [1]. - **Caustic Soda**: Many alumina projects in Guangxi are planned to be put into production, the subsequent concentration of overhauls will decrease, the high - concentration caustic soda is at a negative premium, the absolute price is low, and the near - month warehouse receipts are limited, so there is a risk of short - squeeze [1]. - **LPG**: The international oil - gas fundamentals are continuously loose, the CP/FEI prices have weakened, the valuation of the domestic LPG futures price has been repaired, and the domestic spot fundamentals are stable due to short - term cooling and chemical rigid demand [1]. Others - **Container Shipping (European Route)**: The positive macro - sentiment has been gradually digested, the expectation of price increases in the peak season has been priced in advance, and the shipping capacity supply in November is relatively loose [1].

Core Insights - The Southern Peninsula Palm Oil Millers Association (SPPOMA) reported an increase in Malaysia's palm oil production metrics for the period of October 1-31, 2025, indicating a positive trend in the industry [1] Production Metrics - Malaysia's palm oil yield per hectare increased by 4.50% compared to the previous month [1] - The extraction rate of palm oil rose by 0.20% month-on-month [1] - Overall production volume saw a significant increase of 5.55% compared to the same period last month [1]

Core Insights - Malaysia's independent inspection agency Amspec reported that the palm oil export volume for October 1-31 reached 1,501,945 tons, representing a 4.31% increase compared to the same period last month [1] Industry Summary - The palm oil export volume for October shows a positive growth trend, indicating a potential increase in demand or production efficiency within the industry [1] - The reported export figure of 1,501,945 tons highlights the significant scale of Malaysia's palm oil industry and its role in the global market [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Indonesian palm oil industry has shown strong growth in the first eight months of the year, with both production and export values increasing significantly [1] Production and Export Performance - From January to August, the cumulative production of crude palm oil and palm kernel oil reached 39.04 million tons, a year-on-year increase of approximately 13% compared to 34.52 million tons in the same period last year [1] - The growth in production is attributed to improved plantation efficiency, strong demand for biodiesel, and robust export performance [1] Domestic Consumption and Export Trends - In August, domestic palm oil consumption rose to 2.1 million tons, with the energy sector making a significant contribution; biodiesel consumption increased by 5.71% year-on-year, reaching 1.11 million tons [1] - Although palm oil exports in August slightly decreased by 1.81% from July to 3.47 million tons, the export value increased by 3.5% month-on-month to $3.82 billion, with an average export price of $1,204 per ton [1] - Cumulatively, from January to August, Indonesia's palm oil export value reached $24.78 billion, a substantial year-on-year increase of nearly 43% [1] Future Outlook - GAPKI anticipates that with the continued recovery in global demand and sustained high prices, the Indonesian palm oil industry is expected to maintain a steady growth momentum, with annual export value potentially exceeding $30 billion [1]